■赵忠秀 日前召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 当前，基于美国最新关税措施的实施，全球贸易紧张局势已显著升级，关税战和贸易战不断升级，严重损害以规则为基础的多边贸易体制和国际经贸秩 序，对全球贸易和产业链、供应链稳定造成了严重扰动，导致国际经贸秩序碎片化加剧。在此背景下，全球贸易增长动能明显不足，贸易不确定性大幅上 升。全球经济面临贸易流动扭曲、供应链梗阻、全球产业链碎片化等重大挑战。加征关税将加剧贸易紧张局势，同时，关税冲击压缩了贸易额，严重削弱 消费者、企业和投资者的信心，推高了市场波动率，对全球经济发展前景造成不利影响。经过多年的实践和发展，中国已经积累了丰富的应对关税冲击的 经验和能力，可以有效将贸易战带来的负面影响降至最低。中国作为全球第二大经济体和最大货物贸易出口国，肩负着维护全球贸易稳定以及承担起稳定 全球经济的重大责任，完全能够以更加主动的战略姿态，统筹国内国际两个大局，积极应对经济全球化分裂与贸易体系受损的风险。 关税博弈冲 ...

// 一、市场要闻 // 1、国务院新闻办公室于4月27日（星期日）下午3时举行新闻发布会，请商务部副部长盛秋平和财政部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局、中国 民航局有关负责人介绍优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费有关情况，并答记者问。此外，27日还会公布中国3月规模以上工业企业利润数据。 2、全国31个省份的一季度经济运行情况已全部发布，其中21个省份达到或超过GDP预期增长目标，经济大省更是普遍超预期。从GDP排名来看，一 季度，上海、辽宁均连升2位，四川从第6位升至第5位；湖北则以6.3%增速领跑经济大省。此外，中西部和东北地区更敢花钱，消费增速排名前9名 均来自中西部和东北地区。 跨境贸易 国务院副总理何立峰出席跨境贸易便利化专项行动部署会并讲话。他指出，要抓好专项行动的组织实施，在取得阶段工作成效基础上，将成熟的举 措和经验做法尽快在全国复制推广。加力培育壮大外贸发展新动能，以更优口岸营商环境激发活力、应对外部冲击、稳定增长。 海关总署牵头部署开展跨境贸易便利化专项行动。专项行动为期5个月，将在全国25个城市开展，政策举措涵盖货物贸易、数字贸易、绿色贸易等领 域。 旅游 据交通运输部，2025年"五一" ...

经济日报：强化底线思维做好经济工作 智通财经4月28日电，经济日报头版文章指出，强化底线思维，就是要防范最坏的可能，力争最好的结 果，提前研判形势、做足准备，把主动权牢牢攥在自己手里。眼下，在关税战、贸易战冲击下，国际经 济难言乐观。国际货币基金组织最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》已将2025年全球经济增速预期从1月 份的3.3%下调至2.8%，贸易增速预期从3.2%下调至1.7%。我国外需面临放缓风险，净出口对经济增长 的贡献率或将受到影响。正视外部压力，也要认清发展优势。超大规模市场、完备的工业体系、开放的 创新生态等，都是我们应对外部变化的底气。特别是今年一季度，我国经济交出"超预期"答卷，GDP同 比增速达5.4%，生产需求指标加快回升，延续了去年以来稳中向好的态势，从侧面反映出在外需变动 加剧的情况下扩大内需的重要意义。主动应变，就要更加充分发挥内需的主动力和稳定锚作用。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Views - The steel industry shows resilience in demand, with steel prices experiencing a slight upward trend. The report highlights that the prices for five major steel products as of April 25 are as follows: rebar at 3,323 CNY/ton (+1.34%), wire rod at 3,645 CNY/ton (+1.02%), hot-rolled coil at 3,288 CNY/ton (+0.80%), cold-rolled coil at 3,812 CNY/ton (-1.54%), and medium plate at 3,529 CNY/ton (+0.41%) [2][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron water production, which rose by 4.23 million tons week-on-week, nearing historical highs. However, the increase in production does not correspond to a significant rise in finished steel supply, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in the performance of listed steel companies, with most reporting improved quarterly profits due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently experiencing a supply increase while demand is slightly declining, yet steel prices are generally on the rise. This suggests that steel prices may have reached a bottom, supported by resilient demand [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.7584 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The average daily iron water production from 247 steel companies was 2.4435 million tons, also showing a week-on-week increase [2][3]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.2625 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 223,900 tons. Notably, rebar and wire rod consumption saw significant declines [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 504,100 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 414,000 tons to 1,083,430 tons, and steel mill inventory down by 90,100 tons to 450,840 tons [2][3]. (d) Profitability - As of April 25, 54.98% of the sampled steel companies were profitable, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The average iron water cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,418 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [2][3]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index reported a weekly increase of 1.65%, closing at 2,147.63 points, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 1.15% [4]. The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is at 0.96, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4]. 4. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at resolving structural issues in the steel industry, which are expected to support price increases and improve profitability in the sector [10]. The focus on reducing low-efficiency production capacity and enhancing high-end production capabilities is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [10].

本周，大盘继续走出修复性行情，但更多地体现在局部板块上。全周，中小盘股、微盘股走势略强，大 盘股、蓝筹股表现略弱，本周的情况与上周相反。其中，国证2000指数、中证1000指数、创业板指数、 微盘股指数的涨幅均超过1.70%，而上证50指数下跌了0.33%。 那么，中小盘股表现略强，是否意味着稳市场的任务已经结束了？4月25日召开的政治局会议，有哪些 值得关注的内容？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关注的话题展开讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到了周末我们聊行情的时间。4月25日召开的政治局会议，引起了投资者的广 泛关注，你怎么看？对于下周的走势，你又是如何看待的？ 道达：我对比了本次会议与过去几次会议的表述，发现了一些值得关注的方向。 首先说下大家最为关注的股市与楼市。 去年12月及今年2月的政治局会议，表述都是"稳住楼市股市"；而本次政治局会议的表述则是"持续稳定 和活跃资本市场""持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"。 综上，我认为，从股市的角度来看，持续稳定和活跃资本市场，将夯实市场根基；设立服务消费与养老 再贷款，应该是本次政治局会议最大的预期差。 对于资本市场，表述中的"活跃"两个字是超预期的。对于房地产市场来说， ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The demand in the domestic cultural tourism market is robust, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% year-on-year for the upcoming May Day holiday. This indicates a peak travel interest since 2023, driven by long domestic trips and new tax refund policies for outbound travelers [2][24] - The gaming industry is seeing a normalization in supply regulation, with 127 games approved in April, reflecting a steady recovery in domestic demand and the cultural consumption industry chain [2][24] - AI is positioned as a crucial intersection of technological innovation and domestic demand expansion, with increasing importance on self-sufficiency and technological innovation for long-term development [3][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see policy incentives boost domestic demand and enhance product competitiveness 3) The film and cultural tourism sectors, which are likely to benefit from consumption policies that stimulate cinema recovery and improve consumer demand [3][25] Market Overview - In the 16th week of 2025 (April 21-25), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.74%. The Hang Seng Index saw a rise of 2.74%, while the SW Media Index fell by 0.11%, ranking 25th among 31 industries [1][12][18] - Among sub-industries, gaming and internet services saw increases of 1.56% and 1.39%, respectively, while the film industry experienced a slight decline of 0.14% [1][12][16] Industry News - The top three films at the box office were "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," "Sunshine Flowers," and "Detective Chinatown 1900." The most popular online films included "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero" and "Murder 3" [4][7] - The gaming market is experiencing significant growth, with the TCG (trading card game) market projected to exceed 20 billion, driven by major IPs entering the space [27]

中国发展改革报社评论员|张洽棠 扩大内需与促进开放协同。 内需是中国经济的"发动机"，本次政治局会议提出，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，定向支持服务与消费 领域，要求"尽快清理消费领域限制性措施"，这些是在需求侧的细分领域进行深入创新，充分释放消费 潜在活力。同时，会议还提出"提高中低收入群体收入"，这是从收入端努力解决消费的动力源问题，使 得人民群众能花、敢花且想花，让消费这驾"马车"跑得更稳、更快且更好。 近日，扩大服务业开放试点新增9个城市，允许外资控股医疗机构等政策频出。我国制度型开放的步子 越走越快，同时，面对关税等国际博弈，会议也明确提出"反对单边霸凌行径"。目前，外部环境充满了 不确定性，也对部分企业造成了一定的冲击，不过，包括内外贸一体化等"组合拳"在较大程度上实现了 风险对冲，让广大外贸企业真切体会到了国家的温暖。 短期政策发力与长期制度建设兼顾。 当前，在面对国际国内纷繁复杂的局面时，我们更多地展现出战略主动出击，将主动权牢牢掌握在自己 手中。这既是发展韧性的真实体现，也是改革创新的生动写照。 会议的政策基调十分明确，即"加强超常规逆周期调节"，要求财政与货币政策双轮驱动、超常规发力。 不仅有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's economic resilience and growth in the face of external challenges, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and innovation in various sectors [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Innovation - The use of drones in agriculture has significantly improved efficiency, with one drone capable of covering 100 acres in a day, compared to just 5 acres previously [3]. - Agricultural technology's contribution to productivity has surpassed 63%, positioning China among the world's leaders in agricultural innovation [4]. - The government aims to enhance agricultural productivity through technology, ensuring food security and sustainable growth [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The construction of the world's longest underwater highway tunnel in Qingdao is progressing, with the shield machine "Deep Blue" advancing at a rate of 10 meters per day [6]. - The project involves significant excavation work, with over 600 million cubic meters of earth being moved, contributing to regional integration and infrastructure expansion [6][8]. - Infrastructure investment in China has increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating a robust commitment to enhancing economic foundations [8]. Group 3: Consumer Electronics and Subsidies - The introduction of national subsidies for consumer electronics has led to a nearly 100% increase in sales of mobile devices in March [9][11]. - The subsidy program has expanded to include a wider range of products, encouraging consumers to upgrade their devices [9][10]. - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.467 trillion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year growth [11]. Group 4: Robotics and Automation - The deployment of humanoid robots in manufacturing has shown significant improvements in efficiency and productivity, with robots capable of performing multiple tasks [12][13]. - The integration of advanced technologies in robotics is expected to enhance operational capabilities across various industries [14]. - The anticipated introduction of 400 humanoid robots into industrial and commercial settings this year indicates a growing trend towards automation [13]. Group 5: Drone Delivery Services - The launch of drone delivery services by Meituan in Shanghai represents a significant innovation in logistics, allowing for timely deliveries even during peak traffic [15][16]. - The company has established multiple drone delivery routes across various cities, completing over 450,000 orders, showcasing the potential for growth in low-altitude logistics [16]. - The expansion of drone services aligns with broader trends in technology and consumer demand, positioning Meituan for future growth [16][17].

针对年初项目开工多、资金需求集中的情况，金融机构坚持靠前发力：一季度，工商银行公司贷款余额 首次突破17万亿元，新增项目类贷款超4000亿元；建设银行新增对公贷款超万亿元，对公贷款余额再创 新高；交通银行对公贷款实现同比多增…… 新华社北京4月24日电 题：新增贷款流向哪些领域——首季中国经济一线调研报告之八 吴雨、李延霞、张琼斯 中国人民银行发布的数据显示，一季度，我国社会融资规模增量超15万亿元、新增贷款达9.78万亿元， 均处于历史较高水平。 金融是经济的镜像。首季新增贷款流向哪些领域？折射出哪些经济发展新动向？近日，记者深入多地的 工厂商圈、金融机构，探寻资金流向，感受经济回升向好暖意。 需求回暖带动货币信贷投放"加码" 焊花飞溅、机械轰鸣，位于四川的成达万高铁项目施工现场，施工队伍正全力推进隧道掘进与桥梁架 设。 作为"八纵八横"高铁网沿江通道的重要组成部分，成达万高铁项目建设的加速推进离不开金融的一路护 航。2025年一季度，建设银行四川省分行为项目投放信贷资金4亿元，自建设以来累计向项目注入16亿 元，为项目推进提供了有力的资金保障。 今年以来，金融对实体经济的有效支持直接反映在金融数据上。一季 ...

股市潜在风险提示： 截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极 ...