Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - The recent economic work deployment by 31 provinces emphasizes expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade as the three main focuses [1][2] - Local governments are implementing measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and promoting project construction to boost consumption and investment, but these short-term measures may not address the underlying issues of consumer confidence and spending [1][2] - Effective investment should focus on practical areas that enhance people's livelihoods and industrial upgrades, rather than large-scale projects that may lead to resource waste [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of developing new productive forces is gaining traction, with many regions focusing on emerging industries like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy, but there is a risk of redundant construction and resource misallocation [2][3] - There is a need for a shift in policy focus towards supporting research and development and talent cultivation, rather than just equipment procurement [2][3] - The transformation of foreign trade is crucial, as traditional low-cost competition is becoming unsustainable; enhancing product value is key to overcoming challenges from Southeast Asia and market barriers in Europe and the U.S. [2][3] Group 3 - Initiatives like the Belt and Road and China-Europe Railway Express present opportunities for market expansion, but participation from small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises remains low due to information gaps and risk concerns [3] - Local governments are encouraged to create service platforms to facilitate market entry for businesses and promote the integration of foreign and domestic trade [3] - The effectiveness of the economic deployment will depend on precise execution and local adaptation to find breakthrough points in consumption, investment, industry, and foreign trade [3]

展望下半年，国家发展改革委将着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，进一步做强内循环、优化外循 环、搞好双循环，努力完成全年预期目标和"十四五"规划各项任务，为"十五五"良好开局打好基础。 7月31日，国家发展改革委召开2025年上半年发展改革形势通报会。会议部署了多项重点任务，包括稳 就业、扩大内需、推动"人工智能+"行动走深走实、破除"内卷式"竞争等。 会议指出，今年以来，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，主要经济指标表现良好，新质 生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我 国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 近期国家发展改革委还会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第三批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧 换新资金。按计划将于10月下达今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续支持地方实施消费品以 旧换新政策。 同时，国家发展改革委还将因地制宜培育壮大新质生产力，推动"人工智能+"行动走深走实，推进低空 经济高质量发展，激发数字经济创新活力。 在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设方面，国家发展改革委继续强调要破除"内卷式"竞争，深入推进招标投 标制度改革，规范地方招商 ...

7月28日，中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司中国汽车战略与政策研究中心教授级高级工程师吴松泉发表 专论文章——《吴松泉：是时候全面彻底取消汽车限购了》。"汽车限购"这个汽车行业的老话题又再次 被重新提起。 7月16日，国务院常务会议指出："做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举""要找准关键着力 点，深入实施提振消费专项行动，系统清理制约居民消费的不合理限制""要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精 准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡 点"。 吴松泉进一步指出，从国际经验和国家治理要求看，简单实施汽车限购，不符合中央"推进国家治理体 系和治理能力现代化"的总体要求，也不符合国际上大城市治理拥堵和大气污染的通常做法。 北京、上海暂不具备彻底放开的条件 吴松泉认为，在当前扩大内需已经成为经济工作的头号任务的情况下，对汽车实施限购，已经不符合当 前经济工作的要求，不符合中央关于做强国内大循环和全方位扩大国内需求的要求。 部分限购城市已具备彻底解限的条件 今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》：各地区各有关部门要结合 实际，及时清理对消费的不合理限制 ...

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。同 时，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 在会议中，"持续发力""适时加力""治理企业无序竞争""释放内需潜力""化解重点领域风险"等表述引发 市场关注。中国下半年经济如何前行？哪些重点领域值得关注？ 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入 解读。 1 宏观政策：持续发力、适时加力 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 中信建投认为，会议对今年以来积极政策的成效给予充分肯定，要求继续落实落细既定政策，继续释放 政策效应，并未对增量政策进行安排。原因在于上半年我国GDP增长5.3%，远高于政府预期目标，且 年内项目类专项债发行提速、结构性货币政策工具加力投放均还有空间，因此没有必要安排增量政策。 中信建投同时强调，这并不意味着下半年必然不会有增量政策 ...

中经实习记者 许璐 记者李晖 北京报道 2025年8月是人民币汇率制度改革十周年。中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）近期发布《2025年第二季度宏 观政策报告》（以下简称《报告》），对下半年宏观经济政策和汇率问题进行了专题研究。 CF40资深研究员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌在《报告》发布现场接受《中国 经营报》等媒体采访时表示，扩大内需可以促进国力和人均名义GDP提升，也能有效推动汇率合理回 升。同时，应对有效需求不足，也需要考虑锁定人民币汇率贬值空间，留足升值空间。 财政支出发力支撑经济韧性 张斌指出，2025年二季度，在关税冲击下，美元指数下行，全球制造业PMI跌至荣枯线以下；我国经济 运行展现出较强韧性，财政发债与支出靠前发力、力度较大，成为稳定增长的重要支撑。 2025年上半年工业生产仍保持较高增速，是支撑GDP增速的重要力量，但从投资和消费来看，制造业和 基建投资增速分别为7.5%和8.9%；消费受"以旧换新"政策拉动，二季度社会消费品零售总额累计同比 增长为5%。 根据《报告》，今年1—5月，我国一般公共预算支出112953亿元，政府基金支出32125亿元，合计 145078亿元， ...

今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and requires a comprehensive effort to build a new development pattern[3] - Despite complex changes in the development environment, the long-term positive support conditions and basic trends remain unchanged[3] Economic Performance - The economy has shown steady progress this year, with high-quality development achieving new results[4] - There is a recognition of existing risks and challenges, with a shift in focus from external shocks to internal economic stability[4] Policy Recommendations - Maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[5] - The government is expected to continue a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of government bond issuance[6] Domestic Demand and Investment - There is a call to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, particularly through consumption and investment in key projects[7] - Infrastructure investment is expected to be supported by accelerated government bond issuance and project implementation[7] Reform and Opening Up - Emphasis on deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening up, particularly in technology innovation and international competitiveness[9] - The focus is on stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with measures to support affected enterprises[9] Risk Management - Attention to risk prevention in key areas, including real estate market stabilization and local government debt management[10] - The capital market's attractiveness and inclusivity are to be enhanced to support its recovery[10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, particularly in the consumer sector, with significant trading activity in the Consumer ETF (159928) which saw a drop of over 2% and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer ETF Performance - The Consumer ETF (159928) recorded a net subscription of over 650 million units, marking its sixth consecutive day of inflow, totaling over 1 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) surpassed 12.6 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1]. - Major constituent stocks of the Consumer ETF mostly declined, with Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao dropping over 3%, and Wuliangye falling over 2% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Support - An important meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on enhancing fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and support small businesses [5]. - The government plans to implement a child-rearing subsidy program with a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at increasing consumer demand and improving living standards [5][6]. - The child-rearing subsidy will be available for families with children under three years old, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The implementation of the child-rearing subsidy is expected to alleviate family financial burdens and stimulate consumption in related sectors such as baby care, dairy products, toys, and children's clothing [8]. - Long-term, the subsidy and related services are anticipated to enhance birth rates and support industries linked to maternal and child care, including reproductive assistance and education [8]. - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight, including leading liquor brands and major agricultural firms [9].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping by 2.43% as of the report time [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanjinpuzi, fell over 3%, while Gujinggongjiu and Wuliangye dropped more than 2% [1] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the Food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.35, which is in the 5.48% percentile of the last decade, indicating a potential opportunity for mid to long-term investment [1][3] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, consumer spending has gradually increased this year, but market recovery requires observation. The low price-to-earnings ratio in the food and beverage sector is seen as a positive sign for future growth [3] - CITIC Construction pointed out that important meetings emphasized boosting consumption to drive economic growth, with a focus on sectors like liquor, low-alcohol beverages, snacks, and dairy products [3] - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer stocks [3]