纵观近五年6月份的商用车市场走出一个降-降-增-降-增的趋势，最近五年6月份的商用车市 场销量呈现出三个级别：2021年6月份的超40万辆级别，属于高位水平；2023年6月份和 2025年6月份的超35万辆级别，属于中等水平；余下的2022年6月份和2024年6月份的30万 辆左右级别，属于低位水平。单从数字上看，今年6月份商用车市场36.90万辆水平在近五年 里排在第二位，比五年最高的2021年6月份少销售7.72万辆，比去年同期则多销售约3.2万 辆。 2025年前5个月，我国商用车市场走出一个降-增-降-增-降的走势，5月过后累计销量达到 175万辆，同比累计增长1%。 6月销售37万辆，环比增长10%、同比增长9% 第一商用车网最新获悉，根据中汽协数据（企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同）， 2025年6月份，我国商用车市场销售36.90万辆，环比今年5月份增长10%，同比增长9%， 同比增速转正（5月份商用车市场同比下降2%）。 6月份，商用车市场表现如何？2025年上半年走完，商用车行业格局有何变化？ 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 从累计销量来看，200万辆上下是最近几年上半年商用车累计销量的正 ...

面对当前市场环境，解放将动态优化产品结构，加速核心技术突破，坚定以质量为根本，加强 成本费用管控，以提升市场竞争力和盈利能力。 7月12日，解放发布2025年半年度业绩预告，数据显示，报告期内（2025年1月1日 - 6 月 30日）公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计为1800万元至2200万元；扣除非经常性损益后 的净利润为亏损37338.04万元至37738.04万元；基本每股收益为0.0037元 / 股至0.0045 元 / 股。 | 项 目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利: 1,800 万元至 2,200 万元 | 盈利:50,680.75 万元 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期下降:96.45%-95.66% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 亏损: 37,738.04 万元至 37,338.04 万元 | 盈利:28.387.58 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:231.53%-232.94% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.0037 元/股至 0.0045 元/股 | 盈利:0.1096 元/股 | ...

Economic Growth - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and regulate "involution" competition among enterprises[3] - President Xi Jinping highlighted the importance of guiding enterprises to improve product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity[3] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, including expanding special loans and increasing unemployment insurance return ratios[3] Infrastructure and Industry Policies - The China Cement Association released guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the cement industry, with many industries issuing production reduction notices[4] - A collective production cut of 30% was announced by leading photovoltaic glass companies to alleviate "involution" competition[4] - Some steel mills have received notices for production reduction and emission limits[4] Consumer Policies - Shanghai optimized the environment for outbound tax refunds, and Taobao launched a 50 billion RMB subsidy for consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption[4][16] - The initiative by Taobao is expected to benefit more small and medium-sized businesses and stimulate greater consumption[16] Financial Regulation - Recent financial regulatory policies focus on optimizing capital market mechanisms and exploring the development of RMB stablecoins in Shanghai and Hong Kong[19] - The government aims to guide insurance companies towards long-term stable investments[19] Trade Policies - The U.S. has lifted certain trade restrictions on China, including the requirement for government licenses for major chip design software suppliers[5][22] - The U.S. plans to implement new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on countries without trade agreements starting August 1[6][25] Overseas Macro Policies - The U.S. Federal Reserve members largely expect another interest rate cut later this year, with the "Big Beautiful Act" extending tax cuts set to expire in 2025, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by 3 to 4 trillion USD over the next decade[6][25] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves significantly, from approximately 313 billion USD to 500 billion USD by the end of July[27]

行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 商贸零售 2025 年 07 月 13 日 平台持续加码外卖，转向周期性常 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《阿里巴巴（BABA）点评：投入闪购加码 即时零售，AI 驱动云智能加速》 2025/07/10 《小商品城（600415）深度：数智化赋能 贸易升级，产业链筑基关税破局》 2025/06/17 态化竞争 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 看好 ——商贸零售行业周报（7.7-7.11） ⚫ 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 7 月 7 日至 2025 年 7 月 11 日期间，社会服务指数 上涨 2.11%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 1.29pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 13 位。商贸零 售指数上涨 2.20%，相较于沪深 300 指数上涨 1.38pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the low underwriting fees for bond issuance by Guangfa Bank, raising concerns about "price-cutting" competition among underwriters in the bond market [1][2][25]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Underwriting Fees - Guangfa Bank has not disclosed plans for the issuance scale of its 2025-2026 secondary capital bonds, but it issued two tranches totaling 26 billion yuan in 2024 [1][15]. - The underwriting fee for the bond issuance was reported to be as low as 700 yuan, which is considered a "floor price" in the industry [1][15]. - The underwriting service fee for the six selected underwriters totaled only 63,448 yuan, with a tax rate of 6% [5]. Group 2: Industry Response and Investigations - The China Securities Association has initiated a self-regulatory investigation into six main underwriters due to concerns over the low fees associated with Guangfa Bank's bond project [3][25]. - The association's investigation may impact the results of the recent bidding process for the bond underwriting [7]. - Previous instances of low pricing in bond underwriting have drawn regulatory scrutiny, indicating a pattern of "price-cutting" competition in the industry [21][22]. Group 3: Market Competition and Trends - The bond underwriting market is highly competitive, with leading firms dominating the rankings based on total underwriting amounts and numbers [20][21]. - The article highlights that the current trend of "price-cutting" among underwriters is a response to the fierce competition for market share [19][21]. - Regulatory bodies have previously issued guidelines to curb unreasonably low underwriting fees, emphasizing the need for fair competition in the market [24].

Core Viewpoint - The yoga apparel market is becoming increasingly competitive, with both international and domestic brands vying for market share, particularly in China [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The British yoga brand Sweaty Betty has been acquired by the Chinese e-commerce company Baozun, indicating a shift towards local management for better market adaptation [4][15]. - Alo Yoga, another prominent American brand, is expanding its presence in Asia, with plans to open its first store in China by 2025, following successful launches in other Asian countries [5][22]. - Lululemon, currently the market leader, is facing challenges as its revenue growth in China has been declining, prompting a strategic shift to focus on lower-tier cities [6][40]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Sweaty Betty's parent company, Wolverine Worldwide, has reported a significant decline in revenue and gross profit over the past three years, with a drop of approximately $1 billion in revenue [11][12]. - In contrast, Alo Yoga has seen substantial growth, with sales exceeding $1 billion in 2022, marking a nearly 100% year-over-year increase [21]. - Lululemon's revenue growth in China has shown a downward trend, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating and expected to stabilize between 25% to 30% moving forward [38][39]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Sweaty Betty's previous failure in China was attributed to a lack of localized marketing and consumer engagement, which the brand aims to rectify through its partnership with Baozun [25][32]. - Alo Yoga differentiates itself by positioning as a lifestyle brand, offering a broader range of products beyond apparel, which may enhance its appeal in the competitive landscape [17][21]. - Lululemon is adapting its strategy by expanding into lower-tier cities, where consumer spending power is rising, while also facing the risk of diluting its brand image [41][45].

Core Viewpoint - The bond underwriting service fee has reached an unprecedented low, raising concerns in the industry, prompting the Trading Dealers Association to initiate a self-regulatory investigation into the involved underwriters [2][12]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The Trading Dealers Association announced a self-regulatory investigation into six main underwriters after noticing the low service fees in the bond underwriting for Guangfa Bank's 2025-2026 secondary capital bonds [2][12]. - The selected underwriters for Guangfa Bank's bond issuance were China Galaxy Securities, Guangfa Securities, Industrial Bank, Guotai Junan Securities, CITIC Securities, and CITIC Jianan Securities, with total service fees amounting to only RMB 63,448 [2][4]. Group 2: Service Fee Details - The estimated service fees for the selected underwriters were as follows: China Galaxy Securities RMB 700, Guangfa Securities RMB 1,050, Industrial Bank RMB 700, Guotai Junan Securities RMB 4,998, CITIC Jianan Securities RMB 35,000, and CITIC Securities RMB 21,000 [4][5]. - The extremely low service fees, particularly the RMB 700 from China Galaxy Securities and Industrial Bank, have been described as "floor price" [8]. Group 3: Industry Context - The bond underwriting market is highly competitive, with firms often engaging in price wars to secure underwriting deals, leading to a significant drop in service fees [10]. - The industry typically sees underwriting fees ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of RMB, indicating that the current fees are significantly below the market norm [8][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - The Trading Dealers Association's investigation may impact the results of the current bidding process, as the association has previously expressed concerns over low-price competition in the bond underwriting sector [3][12]. - Regulatory bodies have issued multiple guidelines to curb the practice of underpricing in bond underwriting, emphasizing the need for fair competition and adherence to industry standards [11].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for airport capacity in China is intensifying, with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport poised to become the largest single airport globally, surpassing Beijing Daxing and Shanghai Pudong airports, driven by the upcoming operational readiness of its T3 terminal [3][4][10]. Group 1: Airport Capacity and Rankings - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport is expected to reach a passenger throughput capacity of 140 million once T3 is operational, making it the largest single airport in the world [3][4]. - As of June 2025, the top airports in China by passenger throughput include Shanghai Pudong, Guangzhou Baiyun, and Beijing Capital, with significant growth in passenger numbers post-pandemic [6][12]. - The competition among major airports is fierce, with Guangzhou and Shanghai closely competing for the top position, with a difference of only 1 million passengers [9][10]. Group 2: Urban and Airport Development - The current landscape shows that there are 263 civil transport airports in mainland China, but only 40 have an annual passenger throughput exceeding 10 million, and only 5 exceed 50 million [5]. - The trend indicates a shift towards "dual airport cities," with cities like Chengdu and Shenzhen planning for second airports, while Guangzhou remains a single airport city but is rapidly approaching the throughput of Chengdu's dual airports [13][19]. - The development of airports is not just about capacity but also about enhancing the city's status as an international aviation hub, with Guangzhou being recognized for its comprehensive transportation advantages [16][20]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Airports - Airports are seen as critical infrastructure for urban development, serving as gateways for trade, tourism, and logistics, thus influencing a city's economic power [40][41]. - The competition for airport development is not only about passenger numbers but also about the strategic positioning of cities within the national and international aviation network [22][24]. - The Chinese government is promoting a "3+7+N" international aviation hub system, aiming to enhance the capabilities of major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou while developing secondary hubs in other regions [22][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the role of government, enterprises, and residents in this context [2][65] - The current round of "anti-involution" is characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger coordination, with a focus on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price disorderly competition [2][65] - The revenue growth rate of "involution" industries is projected to decline significantly from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic drop in average net profit growth to -28.2% in 2024 [20][19] Group 2 - "Involution" may lead to negative feedback, hindering industrial transformation and affecting long-term industry development, as evidenced by a decline in return on assets (ROA) to 2.9% in 2024, down 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak [40][4] - The low-price competition strategy has resulted in a decrease in accounts payable turnover rate to 4.6% in 2024, while inventory turnover remains high at 5.4%, indicating a shift in cost management strategies [26][31] - Internal cost control measures in "involution" industries have led to a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% in 2024, and a decrease in employee growth rates, with average salary growth dropping to 4.6% [31][40] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, it is crucial to alleviate supply-demand contradictions and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50] - Structural transformation can be achieved through policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][56] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service industry is essential, as recent trends show a decline in employment in sectors like culture, education, and health [56][55]

在过去的一周，或者说是过去的一个月，整个硅谷华人圈的码农，不，应该是说整个美国的AI从业者，都无法静心工作了。 因为，OpenAI创始人Sam Altman在六月亲自爆料称，Meta的Zuckerberg亲自以总包最高达到1亿美元的年薪，从OpenAI疯狂挖人。有消息称是拿到1亿美 元薪酬包的是OpenAI的华人员工Jiahui Yu。 有消息称，Meta从OpenAI挖走了11名员工，其中7人为华人，分别是Shuchao Bi、Shengjia Zhao、Hongyu Ren、Jiahui Yu、Huiwen Chang、Ji Lin、Pei Sun。其中四人毕业于清华大学计算机科学与数学专业。 针对网传1亿美元挖角三人的说法，Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth表示，所谓高额待遇仅适用于极少数高级岗位。 这不，紧接着，7月上旬就传出了Meta 创始人Zuckerberg度身定制以超2亿美元年薪招揽了前苹果AI基础模型团队负责Ruoming Pang。这薪酬水平，和世界 最著名的足球运动员C罗在沙特拿到的最新合同相当！ 据说，Zuckerberg亲自挖人时，就给了几个小时的考虑时间，超时offe ...