衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.1%，在汇市尾市收于99.087。 虽然金价可能在短期内受到部分利空情绪的压制，但市场对中长期市场仍旧看好。Zaner Metals副总裁 兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，市场正在等待美联储的决定和更多政策指引。随着基本面依然强 劲，且央行继续购买，黄金仍然具有吸引力。预计到2026年第一季度，金价有望达到每盎司5000美元。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电（郭洲洋）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价8日 下跌23.1美元，收于每盎司4219.9美元，跌幅为0.54%。 美国银行全球研究部当日发布的报告预计，美联储在10日结束的议息会议上预计将降息25个基点，美联 储货币政策声明的远期展望将转向鹰派。 降息预期已被市场消化，而偏鹰的表态令市场预计美联储将提高进一步降息的门槛。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 10.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为23.8%。 贺利 ...

截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1640美元，低于前一交易日的1.1643美元；1英镑兑换1.3327美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3334美元。 1美元兑换155.91日元，高于前一交易日的155.29日元；1美元兑换0.8067瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8044瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3850加元，高于前一交易日的1.3837加元；1美元兑换9.4020瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4059瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经纽约12月8日电美元指数8日上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.1%，在汇市尾市收于99.087。 ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.11%, reaching 99.102 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.12%, closing at 1213.90 points [1]

与此同时，市场结构的变化也为数字资产回升提供了重要动力。比特币虽仍低于早前高点，但已显著脱 离近期低位，而此轮回升背后伴随的是机构端政策框架的深度调整。Vanguard近期放松对加密ETF的限 制，使市场不再面临完全的被动排他性；同时，美国主要金融机构开始允许财富管理顾问为客户配置最 高约4%的数字资产敞口，意味着此前被限制的大规模长期资金重新获得了布局渠道。GTC泽汇资本表 示，机构端政策从抵触到开放的转向，远比短期交易流更具结构性意义，因其代表的是未来数年持续性 的资金增量，而非阶段性的情绪推动。随着更多传统机构将数字资产纳入资产组合模型，市场深度、成 交稳定性和资金来源结构都将发生质的改善。这也解释了为什么近期价格虽波动不强，但市场底部却不 断提高。 总体而言，GTC泽汇资本表示，当前市场正处于从震荡走向恢复的关键节点。流动性改善、宏观预期修 复以及机构增配的合力正在推动市场从11月的疲弱状态中脱离。若政策方向进一步确认、资金持续回 流、机构配置规模继续扩大，数字资产市场有望迈向更具持续性的回升通道。市场已展现出多个具有结 构性意义的积极信号，在多重因素共振的背景下，风险资产中长期的吸引力正在重新建立。 ...

12月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10 月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 同期人民银行官网公布的数据显示，11月末黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析称，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等带 动，11月美元指数小幅下跌0.29%。这会带动我国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规 模。 汇率方面，温彬分析称，11月，美元指数环比下跌0.3%。非美货币涨跌不一，日元汇率下跌1.38%，欧 元、英镑兑美元分别上涨0.56%、0.63%。资产价格方面，美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上涨0.2%。 对AI（人工智能）盈利前景的担忧导致美股剧烈分化，11月末标普500指数环比小幅上涨0.1%。 外贸领域，温彬指出，11月美国将对华关税下调10%，有助于我国对美出口规模保持稳定。投资领域， 我国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，近日中国证监会印发《合格境外投资者制度优化工作方案》，对配置 型外资准入实行绿色通道，有利于提升对境外投资者的吸引力。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜 能大，是外汇 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 核心观点 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：龙奥明 沪铜维持强势 沪铜 今日沪铜持续增仓上行，主力期价拉升至 9.3 万关口，持仓量接 近 66 万张。宏观层面，美元指数维持弱势，利好有色。产业层面， 国内随着铜价走强，现货升水收窄，下游观望情绪升温，周一电解 铜社库小幅上升；海外伦铜注销仓单比例快速上升，现货紧缺预期 上升。技术层面，铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较强。 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡，持仓量变化不大，日内主力期价回踩 2.2 万 关口，午后持续回 ...

2025年12月以来，美元指数呈现显著震荡下行特征，核心驱动逻辑围绕美联储12月降息预期升温、美联 储主席人选更迭预期及非美货币走势联动效应展开。美元指数报98.72，较11月下旬高点已累计回落 1.2%；其中11月25日美元指数跌破100整数关口后持续承压，为非美货币创造了显著升值空间。当前市 场研究聚焦于12月9日至10日美联储年内收官议息会议，该会议决策将成为美元指数下一阶段走势的关 键催化变量。 非美货币走势联动及全球经济环境构成影响美元指数的重要外围因素。近期美元指数的承压下行，一定 程度上源于非美货币的相对走强衬托——人民币对美元汇率表现强劲，12月3日离岸人民币兑美元盘中 升破7.06，创逾一年来新高，背后得益于中国资产吸引力提升带来的资本流入支撑。与此同时，欧洲、 日本等主要经济体虽面临各自增长困境，但市场对其央行政策调整的预期已逐步消化，欧元、日元的贬 值态势有所放缓，削弱了美元指数的相对强势基础。此外，全球金融市场风险情绪演变通过影响美元避 险资产属性，间接作用于指数走势，而特朗普政府关税政策的潜在不确定性，仍为美元指数波动预留了 额外空间。 学界及机构对美元指数后续走势的研判存在显著分歧 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the market showing cautious sentiment reflected in the recent fluctuations of the US dollar index [1] - The US dollar index closed at 98.98 on December 5, experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% on that day and a cumulative drop of 0.5% over the past week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [1] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with a prevailing outlook favoring continued easing; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting is at 87.2% according to the CME FedWatch tool [1] Group 2 - Institutions generally believe the US dollar is overvalued, with Goldman Sachs estimating it to be overvalued by approximately 20%, while Huatai Securities estimates a 15-20% overvaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the actual effective exchange rate of the US dollar is overvalued by 10%, influenced by factors such as tariff policies and capital flow reversals [2] - The upcoming global central bank policy announcements are expected to clarify the divergence in monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike potentially exerting further pressure on the US dollar [2]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% and the highest level since December 2015 [1][2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the combined effects of exchange rate fluctuations and asset price changes, with the dollar index experiencing a slight decline of 0.29% in November [2][3] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year, driven by the depreciation of the dollar and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2][3] Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7.412 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases, although the increment has been at a low level for the past nine months [1][4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to $4,200 per ounce in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5] - The central bank's continued small-scale purchases of gold signal an intention to optimize international reserves, with a recommendation to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue, supported by a solid economic foundation and favorable conditions in China's economy, including a recent reduction in tariffs on exports to the U.S. [3] - The ongoing adjustments in capital market access for foreign investors are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of China's market [3] - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with expectations of continued upward pressure on gold due to geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the dollar [4][5]

Group 1 - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves for the fourth consecutive month is attributed to the combined effects of asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, with the US dollar index falling by 0.3% to 99 in November [2] - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has risen to over 80%, influenced by weak economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials, leading to mixed performance in global asset prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and the depreciation of the US dollar have prompted central banks and ETF funds to reduce their holdings in US Treasuries while increasing their investments in gold [3] - The People's Bank of China's strategy to increase gold reserves aligns with the goals of optimizing international reserve structures and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [3]