Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market anticipates a significant increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, leading to a substantial rebound in the US dollar index, which is bearish for gold. The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict also favors risk - assets and is negative for safe - haven assets like gold [1]. - Polypropylene开工率上升，整体供应充足，商业库存增加，预计PP 01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力7135一线 [1]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate. Although global iron ore shipments are rising, attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term due to reduced supply expectations and rising factory prices, along with cost support [4]. - After consecutive price increases, coke production has rebounded, and the sixth round of price increases has started. Although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term due to better - than - expected MPOB data and the influence of Indonesia's B50 news [6][7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias. Although there is liquidity support, the economic resilience favors risk - assets [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 2495. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 1355. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. In October, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.1% [1]. - Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [1]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 7058 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.77%, up 1.34% from the previous day. The average downstream industry start - up rate is 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The commercial inventory is 85.66 million tons, up 5.61 million tons week - on - week, and the two - oil polyolefin inventory is 83.5 million tons, up 9 million tons week - on - week [1]. - It is expected that the commercial inventory will remain at a high level in the short term, and the PP 01 contract will oscillate, with an upper pressure at 7135 [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4th to 10th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and at the six northern ports, it was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. Rebar - On August 11th, the domestic steel market mainly rose. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billets increased by 40 to 3100 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and one lowered it by 20 yuan/ton. Baosteel raised the ex - factory price of plates in September, with the base price of thick plates and hot - rolled products increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3408 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [4]. Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 2 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 49 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 82 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 22 yuan/ton [4]. - The sixth round of price increases has started, and although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. Pig - On August 11th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.15, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 114.35. As of 14:00, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 1.0% decrease from last Friday; the egg price was 7.55 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from last Friday [5]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. Silver - Trump's team is expanding the list of candidates for the Fed chair. The White House may announce the candidate this fall [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's July crude palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; imports were 61,000 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase [6]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of August 8th, the rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 138,800 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 69,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week [8]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2374 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The sample inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week - on - week. The sample production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons week - on - week. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% week - on - week. The 1.2 million - ton/year methanol plant of Yanchang Zhongmei is expected to complete maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, an increase of 0.85% week - on - week [9]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 2495 [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1336 yuan/ton, recently oscillating with a downward bias. The weekly soda ash production is 744,600 tons, a 6.4% increase from the previous period. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.8651 million tons, a 3.86% increase week - on - week. The float glass start - up rate is 75.19%, a 0.19% increase week - on - week. The average national float glass price is 1181 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 61.847 million weight cases, a 3.95% increase week - on - week [10]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 1355 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.24% to 98.50, while most non-US currencies experienced declines [1] Currency Performance - The euro fell by 0.22% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1616 [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.12%, with a rate of 1.3432 against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar also dropped by 0.12%, trading at 0.6514 against the US dollar [1] - The Japanese yen saw an increase of 0.28%, with the dollar trading at 148.1520 yen [1] - The Canadian dollar rose by 0.15%, with the exchange rate at 1.3777 [1] - The Swiss franc appreciated by 0.49%, trading at 0.8124 against the US dollar [1]

周一纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.37%，报98.543点，日内交投区间为98.034-98.670点。彭博美元指数涨 0.27%，报1207.94点，日内交投区间为1202.58-1208.76点。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].

责任编辑：袁浩 国家外汇管理局7月7日发布的统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美 元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。 "到6月底，中国外汇储备余额创2016年1月以来新高，开放条件下防范化解各种冲击的能力得到加 强。"管涛表示。 展望下一阶段我国外汇储备形势，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析认为，当前外部环境更趋复 杂严峻，全球经济发展动能减弱，国际金融市场波动性依然较大。但我国经济持续稳健增长，对外贸易 保持韧性，全球投资者看好中国资本市场新机遇，这些因素都有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 谈及外汇储备余额变动的原因，业内专家认为，汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，推动当 月外汇储备规模上升。"6月份，新增外汇储备322亿美元至33174亿美元，录得月度'六连涨'，上半年累 计增加1151亿美元。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对《金融时报》记者分析称，这主要是受主要经 济体财政政策、货币政策和经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数加速下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上 涨，非美元货币对美元升值和资产价格上涨产生的正估值效应。 ...

Wind资讯数据显示，6月26日，在岸及离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中双双升破7.16。截至当日17时，离岸 人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.1525，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高触及7.1565，均创去年11月中 旬以来新高。 本报记者 刘 琪 6月份以来，人民币对美元汇率在波动中小幅上行。 Wind资讯数据显示，6月19日以来美元指数连续下行。截至6月26日17时，当日美元指数盘中最低跌至 96.9923，创2022年3月2日以来新低。 展望未来，王青判断，短期内人民币汇率将继续处于稳中偏强状态。伴随美国政府内外政策对美国经济 冲击的逐步显现，美元还会承受一定压力。这意味着后期因美元升值给人民币带来的被动贬值压力可 控。 （责任编辑：蔡情） "近期人民币对美元汇率走强，原因之一是同期美元走弱带来的被动升值效应。"东方金诚首席宏观分析 师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，近日美元再度转弱，推动人民币对美元汇率出现较为明显的上涨。另 外，近期国内宏观经济形势稳中偏强，也为人民币汇率提供了重要支撑。 中国银行研究院主管王有鑫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，近期人民币汇率走强是内外部因素共 同作用的结果。从外部因素看，美联 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar, which fell by 2.5% to a three-year low of 96.9, leading to a collective appreciation of non-USD currencies [2][3] - The rise in global financial asset prices, including a 1.0% increase in the USD-denominated global bond index and a 5.0% rise in the S&P 500 index, also supported the increase in foreign reserves [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the significant depreciation of the US dollar has enhanced the valuation of non-USD assets within China's foreign reserves, contributing to the larger increase in reserves for June [3] - The current level of foreign reserves is considered to be at a moderately sufficient level, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and acting as a buffer against external shocks [3] - China's economy is expected to continue its steady growth, and resilient foreign trade is likely to help maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 3 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves amounted to 7.39 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, indicating a continued strategy of increasing gold holdings [4] - The importance of gold as a widely recognized ultimate payment method is increasing, especially in the context of rising geopolitical risks and the diminishing reliability of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar [4] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against single currency risks and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rebound in spot gold prices, nearing $3,400 per ounce, is primarily influenced by the Chinese central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves for foreign exchange hedging rather than a bullish outlook on gold itself [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The decline in the US dollar index is negatively correlated with gold prices, leading to an increase in gold prices as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve grow, alongside concerns about a potential economic recession in the US [1] Group 2 - International investment banks, such as Citigroup, have recently shifted their stance to a bullish outlook on gold, raising their price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, indicating potential upward price movement [2] - Despite the optimistic price targets of $3,500 to $3,600 per ounce, the overall expectation suggests a narrowing of upward space for gold prices, indicating a likely continuation of range-bound trading without significant new capital inflows [4] - For individual investors holding gold-related assets, maintaining positions is crucial, while new purchases should be approached with caution, as significant price fluctuations are not anticipated in the near term [4]