Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that the Bank of Korea may delay its next interest rate cut to the first quarter of 2026 due to high household debt, rising housing prices, and resilient economic data [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent inflation rebound and better-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter suggest that the Bank of Korea does not have an urgent need to further ease monetary policy [1]. - The unemployment rate in South Korea was 2.6% in October, showing stability in the labor market, while manufacturing employment has recently started to recover after four months of decline [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The last monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Korea for this year is scheduled for November 27, with market attention on whether another rate cut will occur [1]. - The current seven-day repurchase rate is maintained at 2.5%, with four rate cuts implemented since October 2024, but the easing was paused starting July 2025 [1]. Risks to Financial Stability - High levels of household debt and real estate prices remain significant risks to South Korea's financial stability, despite government measures to restrict housing credit [1]. - The policy stance remains cautious regarding further easing, as there is concern that it could exacerbate asset bubbles, particularly in the Greater Seoul area [1].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, with no further interest rate cuts anticipated before the end of next year[1] - The weighted average loan rate (WALR) decreased by 5 basis points to 3.24% in Q3, with bill financing and general loans dropping by 13 and 2 basis points to 1.14% and 3.67% respectively[2] - Social financing growth slowed slightly to 8.7% year-on-year in Q3 from 8.9% at the end of Q2, indicating weak private sector financing demand[2] Economic Conditions - The central bank expresses confidence in achieving the annual growth target, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters[5] - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with concerns over inflation trends and geopolitical risks impacting financial stability[3] - Domestic inflation is expected to improve, supported by policies promoting consumption and the construction of a unified national market[3] Policy Focus - The central bank aims to enhance the monetary policy framework and optimize credit structure through structural policy tools, emphasizing the "Five Key Areas" of financial support[3] - The M2 money supply growth increased slightly to 8.4% year-on-year in Q3, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and asset reallocation[2] - The excess reserve ratio remained stable at 1.4%, indicating continued liquidity in the banking system[2]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a stable yet slightly slowing economy[3] - Social retail sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to GDP growth[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%, outperforming total investment growth by 4.5 percentage points, with high-tech industries showing significant investment increases[3] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation concerns have eased, with the CPI rising to 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, and the PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%[4] - Core CPI has shown a strong recovery, increasing to 1.2% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - The report indicates a need for coordinated macro policies to promote reasonable price recovery amid various influencing factors[4] Global Economic Concerns - The report expresses heightened concerns about the cooling labor market in overseas economies, contrasting with previous assessments of strong labor markets in developed economies[5] - In September 2025, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.0%, below expectations, influenced by declines in housing and used car prices, while other major economies also reported high inflation rates[5] - The report notes a significant drop in U.S. non-farm employment growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, compared to 71,000 in the same month last year[5] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, reflecting a shift from observation to active policy implementation[7] - The central bank has resumed buying government bonds, with a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, indicating a potential increase in monetary easing[9] - The focus on credit policy remains on optimizing structure and supporting key areas, with new measures to assist personal credit recovery expected to be implemented by early 2026[10] Currency Stability - Concerns regarding the RMB exchange rate have diminished, with the report suggesting that the current level is acceptable to the central bank, focusing on the positive impact of exchange rate stability on the economy[11] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate to support foreign trade and cross-border capital flows[11]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates that a slight decline in loan growth is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure[2] - As of September 2025, the M2 year-on-year growth rate is projected to decline from 8.4% to 8.0% in Q4, with August's peak at 8.8% likely being the highest for the next six months[4] - The current loan growth slowdown is expected to impact the overall liquidity of enterprises and non-bank institutions, necessitating observation of the sustainability of household deposit shifts[4] Group 2: Economic Context and Projections - The total RMB loan balance has reached CNY 270 trillion, while the social financing scale stands at CNY 437 trillion, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[8] - The PBOC's monetary policy remains supportive, with M2 growth at 8.4% and social financing growth at 8.7%, aligning with the economic growth target of 5%[13] - The decline in loan growth is attributed to factors such as local government bond issuance and the reduction in real estate loans, which have not been compensated by growth in light-asset industries[8] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - The likelihood of short-term interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions is deemed low, as the primary issue is the lack of borrowers rather than lenders[5] - The PBOC's focus on maintaining liquidity may lead to funds being diverted from real economic activities to financial markets, especially if fiscal measures do not stimulate real investment returns[5] - Risks include potential unexpected changes in overseas monetary policies and domestic monetary policy adjustments[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The regulatory trend is easing, and the market is waiting for incremental policies. The external economic pressure remains but is weakening, and the internal high - quality development has achieved positive results, yet the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs further consolidation. The effect of counter - cyclical adjustment of monetary policy is gradually emerging, and the financial aggregate is growing reasonably. The intensity of the "high - quality financial development" statement is reduced, and in the future, counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments will be carried out to improve the efficiency of macro - economic governance [2]. - The current monetary cycle is entering the top - range. The central bank is less likely to actively tighten liquidity, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of transmission to the real economy. Structural policies still focus on four major areas: "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". The RMB exchange rate volatility is expected to increase, and the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is reduced, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy implementation. There may be a possibility of further monetary policy easing in the future [3]. - In 2026, the monetary policy is still waiting for incremental measures. After the monetary cycle enters the top - range, attention should be paid to the impact of the increasing market pressure in the second half of 2026 on the change of liquidity injection structure, and the monetary policy will become more accommodative [4]. Summary According to the Directory "The Monetary Policy Execution Report" Abstract Comparison Analysis First Paragraph: General Tone - Economic and macro - policy level: The pressure on the current economy is further weakened. The description of high - quality development has changed from "making new progress" to "achieving positive results"; the economic situation has changed from "performing well" to "generally stable", and the "resilience" of the economy is emphasized before "vitality" [11][13][15]. - Monetary policy level: The description has been adjusted. "Strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment" is deleted, and "maintaining sufficient liquidity" is added, indicating a weakening of "counter - cyclical" and a decrease in incremental easing as money is transmitted to the real economy. The goal of monetary policy has shifted from emphasizing "serving the high - quality development of the real economy" to "stabilizing the financial market operation". The use of "quantity, price, and structure" monetary policy tools is emphasized, increasing the possibility of the policy shifting from structural to aggregate adjustment [16]. Second Paragraph: Monetary Policy Execution - There are not many changes compared between the two quarters. The execution of monetary policy still covers five aspects: monetary credit, financing cost, credit structure, exchange rate stability, and risk prevention. - For aggregate monetary policies, the specific price (interest rate cut) and quantity (reserve requirement ratio cut) adjustments in the second - quarter report are weakened in the third - quarter report, indicating that the policy is waiting for the transmission effect of aggregate monetary policy tools [20][21][23]. - For structural monetary policies, the new and increased - quota policy operations in the second - quarter report are in the implementation state of "using well" and "giving full play to" existing policies in the third - quarter report, lacking incremental policies [23]. - The descriptions of exchange rate stability and risk prevention and resolution remain the same in the third and second quarters [24]. Third Paragraph: Effects of Monetary Policy - The third - quarter monetary policy report basically continues the second - quarter statement, but shows the gradual manifestation of the "moderately accommodative" policy effect. - Policy tone: The effect of counter - cyclical adjustment is "gradually emerging", and the financial aggregate has changed from "growing steadily" to "growing reasonably", indicating that the growth of the financial aggregate is more in line with the economic growth and price level targets [28][29][30]. - Effect performance: The financing cost remains low, but the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 1.2% compared to the end of last year, showing better performance in both cost reduction and enhancing economic expectations [30]. Fourth Paragraph: Future Monetary Policy Tone - For the judgment of the future economic situation, the pressure on the external environment is weakened, the problems are more clearly defined, and the response measures are strengthened. There is still a demand for aggregate policies as the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs further consolidation [35][36][38]. - In terms of the central bank's work in the next stage, the importance of building a financial powerhouse is advanced, and the demand for counter - cyclical monetary policy is increasing. The goal of "building a financial powerhouse" is advanced, and the statement of "high - quality financial development" is deleted. The focus of the policy implementation has shifted from "stabilizing employment" to "stabilizing growth" [39]. Fifth Paragraph: Future Monetary Policy Implementation - Aggregate monetary policy: The central bank's monetary policy has changed from "implementing in detail" in the second quarter to "implementing well" in the third quarter. The probability of the central bank actively tightening liquidity is reduced, and the policy framework will be continuously improved to strengthen policy implementation and transmission [47][48][49]. - Interest rate policy: The regulatory intensity of interest rate policy implementation and supervision may be weakened, and the constraints on the money supply side are relaxed, highlighting the support for the demand side [49]. - Structural policy: The third - quarter report emphasizes "implementing well" existing policies, and the focus areas remain the same: "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". The central bank also mentions policy support for the digital economy [50]. - Exchange rate policy: The description of the exchange rate has changed from "resilience" to "elasticity", and from "stabilizing expectations" to "guiding expectations". The "three resolutes" are deleted, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy implementation and the possibility of future policy easing [51][54]. - In terms of preventing financial risks, the third - quarter report continues the second - quarter statement [55]. "The Monetary Policy Execution Report" Column Analysis Column 1: Scientifically View Financial Aggregate Indicators - It is more appropriate to focus on aggregate indicators such as social financing scale and money supply rather than credit indicators. The slowdown in the growth rate of aggregate indicators is normal, and the goal of "matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level targets" remains unchanged. In the future, attention should be gradually shifted from quantity indicators to price indicators such as interest rates [62]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - By analyzing the relationship between the central bank's base money and broad money, it helps to clarify the concept of "excessive money issuance". The scale and growth rate of base money and broad money in China and the United States are compared, and it is pointed out that the US M2 caliber is narrower than that of China [63][64][65]. Column 3: Achievements and Prospects of Financial Support for the Digital Economy during the "14th Five - Year Plan" Period - The central bank's view on the digital economy in the financial field includes two aspects: the digital transformation of the financial industry and financial services for the digital economy. The policy framework system is gradually improving, the digital transformation is advancing steadily, digital technology is empowering high - quality financial services, data element value is being released, and financial data governance is more perfect [69]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Ratio - Attention should be paid to the relationship between the central bank's policy interest rate and market interest rate, the impact of deposit and loan interest rate changes on bank net interest margins, the interest rate spread between bank loans and bonds, the term spread of different - term time deposits, and the relationship between corporate financing interest rates and government bond yields [70].

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回顾整个2024年，日元一直处于动荡不安之中。特别是在去年年中，在美元的强势打压下，日元对美元 汇率屡创新低，一度跌破160大关。在美联储不断推迟降息时间点以及日本央行加息行动不及预期的共 同影响下，显著的美日利差不断给日元汇率带来下行压力。 在此情况下，日本政府也曾多次采取措施对外汇市场进行干预，但总体来看效果不佳。相比于日本政 府，日本央行的行动被认为更能影响日元汇率表现。不过，在整个2024年日本央行在加息问题上始终保 持谨慎的态度，动作幅度不大，很难给日元汇率带来有效支撑。 2025年1月，日本央行终于开始行动。在1月的货币政策会议上，日本央行以8比1的多数票决定把货币政 策利率从0.25%提升至0.5%，符合市场预期。虽然日本央行在2024年3月和7月也曾加息两次，但加息幅 度均未达到25个基点。 在刚刚过去的10月，日元对美元持续贬值，不免让人想起2024年日本政府出手干预日元汇率的情景。不 过，从目前的情况看，市场普遍认为，当前日元汇率还没跌到触发干预的红线，因此日本政府暂时还不 会主动入市。 与此同时，日本央行最新公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，有一名委员明确表示，"进一步推进政策 利率正常 ...

你是否好奇：为什么2024年央行要推出 "股票回购增持再贷款"？地方债务化解中 "紧急流动性支持 + 财政债务置换" 如何平衡风险与市场纪律？美联储激 进加息时，人民币 "双向浮动" 的底气从哪来？ 如果你想读懂这些与经济民生息息相关的问题，由李海辉著、中国金融出版社出版，中国人民银行原党委委员、行长助理张晓慧作序的《货币政策与经济 治理》，或许是最适合的答案 —— 它不是晦涩的理论堆砌，而是扎根中国实践的 "货币政策操作指南"。 ——本书—— 作者简介：李海辉，高级经济师，中国人民银行研究生部（现清华大学五道口金融学院）硕士研究生毕业。现任中国金融教育发展基金会秘书长，具有商 业银行、人民银行工作经历，曾任中国人民银行处级和副局级干部，长期从事房地产调控、货币政策、支付管理工作。公开发表数十篇研究论文并出版 《金融生态理论与金融问题分析》《房地产博弈的经济结果》等著作。 亮点 1：从一线实践中来，解答真问题 作者李海辉20 余年深耕货币政策一线，常深入金融机构、企业实地调研，多篇调研报告获中央领导批示。他把这些实操经验凝练成书中的 "十大货币原 理"，直接回应中国货币政策的核心难题： 如何破解 "稳增长与防 ...

Monetary Policy Overview - The focus of monetary policy is to support the real economy, with a higher likelihood of increasing structural monetary policy tools in the second half of 2025[1] - The report indicates a shift towards "doing a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" compared to previous emphasis on "enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance"[2] Changes in Policy Language - The overall tone remains moderately loose, with a change from "implementing in detail" to "implementing well" regarding monetary policy[2] - The assessment of the international economic situation has shifted from "weakening growth momentum" to "insufficient growth momentum" in the global economy[2] - The report emphasizes the need to "consolidate the foundation for domestic economic recovery" and "enhance confidence in victory"[2] Key Focus Areas - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a relatively loose social financing condition and optimizing the monetary policy framework[3] - It stresses the need to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector, indicating a focus on constructing a new development model[3] - The report includes four specialized sections, addressing the relationship between base currency and money, financial support for digital economy development, and maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships[3] Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose into 2026, with a focus on stabilizing growth and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy tools[2] - There is a potential for the central bank to utilize open market operations to stabilize interest rate fluctuations around the New Year and Spring Festival holidays[2] - Risks include potential overseas inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in major economies[2]

Group 1 - The A-shares market showed a slight dip followed by a rebound, with the A500 ETF fund (512050) experiencing a minor increase of 0.09% and a trading volume exceeding 1.7 billion yuan [1] - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions [1] - The report highlighted the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices and reducing the comprehensive financing costs in society, while also aiming to stabilize the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) is designed to help investors easily allocate to core A-share assets, tracking the CSI A500 Index with a balanced industry allocation and leading stock selection strategy [2] - This ETF covers all 35 sub-industries, integrating both value and growth attributes, and is overweight in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and defense [2]