Market Overview - Major stock index futures declined, with Dow futures down 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.41% [1] Technology Sector - Large tech stocks fell before the market opened, with Amazon down 0.27%, Apple down 0.34%, Google down 0.45%, Meta down 0.44%, and Microsoft down 0.15% [2] Automotive Industry - Tesla significantly reduced the prices of its electric vehicles in South Korea, with the highest price cut reaching 6,490 USD (approximately 9.4 million KRW). The price of the Model 3 high-performance all-wheel-drive version is now 59.99 million KRW, down from 69.39 million KRW. The prices of two Model Y variants were also reduced by about 3 million KRW. Tesla's stock fell by 0.25% [2] Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia is negotiating with TSMC for new orders of its H200 AI chips to meet strong customer demand. Nvidia has requested TSMC to start producing additional chips, expected to begin production in Q2 2026. Nvidia's stock decreased by 0.37% [2] Financial Sector - Citigroup is gradually exiting the Russian market and expects to incur a pre-tax loss of approximately 1.2 billion USD from the sale of its remaining business in Russia. The sale of Citibank's remaining Russian operations to Renaissance Capital is expected to be signed in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approval [3] Media Industry - Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount's acquisition proposal again, as the board has not made a final decision but will meet next week. One concern is that Paramount did not increase its offer, which Warner Bros. previously deemed inferior to Netflix's offer [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the timing and extent of future interest rate cuts. The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75% [4] Leadership Change - Warren Buffett will officially retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on December 31, with his protégé Greg Abel set to take over on January 1 [5]

英镑兑美元最新下跌0.2%，报1.3436。今年以来，英镑兑美元累计上涨7.5%，创下自2017年上涨9.5%以 来的最大年度涨幅。今年以来，欧元、瑞士法郎、挪威克朗和瑞典克朗兑美元累计上涨13%至19%。 周三，英镑兑欧元下跌0.1%。2025年英镑兑欧元汇率下跌超过5%，创下自2020年以来对欧元的最大年 度跌幅。 财政担忧抑制涨势 智通财经APP获悉，周三，英镑兑美元小幅走软，但仍有望创下八年来最大年度涨幅。然而，英镑兑欧 元在2025年持续下跌，预计将成为今年表现最差的主要欧洲货币。 尽管英镑兑疲软的美元在2025年表现强劲，但下半年英镑的走势受到国内政治担忧、对英国公共财政的 担忧以及经济增长停滞的影响。外汇交易员关注的焦点是秋季预算案，但11月份的财政事件平静度过， 缓解了英镑在下半年面临的部分压力。 英镑在2026年的表现可能取决于英国央行的货币政策行动。 英国央行在2025年四次下调借贷成本，包括12月份的降息，但负责制定利率的货币政策委员会仍然存在 分歧，政策制定者也暗示，本已缓慢的降息步伐可能会进一步放缓。货币市场市场显示，在明年6月份 之前，交易员尚未完全消化再次降息的预期。他们预计明年 ...

美联储会议纪要提到，在讨论可能影响货币政策前景的风险管理因素时，与会者普遍认为，通胀上行风 险仍然较高，而就业下行风险也较高，且自2025年中期以来有所上升。大多数与会者指出，转向更为中 性的政策立场将有助于防止劳动力市场状况出现重大恶化。这些与会者中的许多人还认为，现有证据表 明，关税导致持续通胀压力的可能性有所降低。相比之下，一些与会者指出通胀上升风险可能根深蒂 固，并认为在通胀数据居高不下的情况下，进一步降低政策利率可能会被误解为政策制定者对2%的通 胀目标承诺有所减弱。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月31日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 977.56 | -0.85% | 284555 | 136303 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月31日上海黄金现货价格报价976.99元/克，相较于期货主力价格（977.56元/克）贴水0.57 元/克。 美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为14.9%，维持利率不变的概率为85.1%。到明年3月累 ...

安仁礼以三个F开头的关键词——快速变化(FAST)、财政政策(Fiscal)与碎片化(Fragmentation)勾 勒出2026至2027年全球经济将面临的三重核心风险。在他看来，全球经济不仅正经历前所未有的动 荡，更面临着从增长模式到治理框架的根本性重构，而这些风险正在重塑全球金融市场的底层逻辑。 他指出，财政政策的过度扩张正逐渐取代货币政策成为经济调控的主导力量，美联储的独立性面临前 所未有的挑战；贸易紧张局势虽已度过最艰难的阶段，但向服务贸易领域的溢出风险仍需警惕；而全 球经济的碎片化趋势则正在颠覆传统的风险定价与分散机制。 在这样的宏观背景下，全球保险市场将如何应对？面对逆风，中国经济能否继续展现其独特韧性？本 期首席面对面，和讯网与安仁礼交流展望2026，探讨多重风险交织下的经济趋向与保险行业的破局 之道。 文/牛江 在全球经济增长动能放缓、地缘政治冲突与贸易摩擦持续升温的2025年，世界正转向进入充满变数 的新周期。瑞士再保险集团首席经济学家安仁礼(Jerome Haegeli)用"流沙无常"四个字概括了当前 全球宏观经济的核心特征。 以下为交流实录：（有删减） 和讯网：您用"流沙无常"形容未来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 was a transformative year for the bond market, with yield trends shifting from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, trading strategies evolving, market scale expanding, and asset correlations changing [3][15]. - In 2026, China's economy will feature "internal improvement, external stability, and structural optimization", with GDP growth target around 5%. Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", and fiscal policy will be "actively expansionary" [4][5]. - The bond market in 2026 will see a positive supply trend, with institutional behavior showing "stable but changing allocation and contracting and differentiating trading". The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state [7][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - **Yield Trend**: Yields shifted from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, with a pattern of "rising - falling - rising - fluctuating" for long - term yields and short - term yields anchored around policy rates [15][16]. - **Bond Products**: The bond market became a core financing channel for economic transformation, with a high - stock, fast - expanding, and government - bond - concentrated structure [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Financial institutions' trading strategies shifted from "trend trading" to a "coupon + band" composite strategy, with commercial banks and insurance institutions as the main holders of interest - rate bonds and brokers and overseas institutions increasing market volatility [23]. - **Asset Linkage**: The traditional linkage between treasury bond yields and traditional assets (A - shares, US stocks, gold) was broken, showing "three reversals" [29]. 2. Fundamentals: Internal Improvement, Gradual Progress - **GDP Growth Target**: In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was basically achieved, with a "high - then - low" pattern. In 2026, the target may remain around 5% [37][38]. - **Consumption Growth**: In 2025, consumption momentum slowed and there was a clear trend of consumption downgrade. In 2026, consumption will moderately recover, but factors such as policy support, income, and balance - sheet repair will limit the improvement [41][42]. - **Investment Growth**: In 2025, investment growth turned negative, showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, investment is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment as the core driving forces, and the decline in real - estate investment will narrow slightly [44][45][47]. - **Export Growth**: In 2025, exports showed strong resilience. In 2026, export growth is expected to remain stable, supported by factors such as diversified trade markets, upgraded export product structures, and enterprise overseas investment [52][53]. - **Price Movement**: In 2025, prices rebounded at a low level. In 2026, CPI will moderately recover, PPI's decline will narrow, and the GDP deflator is expected to gradually recover but may still be in the negative range [59]. 3. Policy Front: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Actively Expansionary Fiscal Policy - **Monetary Policy**: In 2025, monetary policy was moderately loose and operation became more refined. In 2026, it will continue the "moderately loose" tone, focusing on precise measures and cross - cycle balance, with policy tools transforming from quantity - based to price - based [62][63]. - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, fiscal policy was significantly expansionary, with a higher deficit rate. In 2026, it will continue the "actively expansionary" main line, with characteristics of "stable total growth, optimized structure, and front - loaded rhythm" [68]. 4. Bond Supply: Scale Expansion and Structural Optimization - **2025**: The supply of interest - rate bonds increased significantly, with government bonds leading the expansion and a front - loaded fiscal leverage rhythm [75]. - **2026**: The bond market supply will be positive, featuring "scale expansion, front - loaded rhythm, investment in new areas, and longer terms", with the government bond scale expected to reach a record high [76]. 5. Institutional Behavior: Stable but Changing Allocation, Contracting and Differentiating Trading - **Allocation Disk**: Commercial banks' bond allocation will increase steadily, with a shift towards the medium - and short - term. Insurance institutions' demand for bond allocation may weaken, and there will be a re - balance between stocks and bonds [84][85]. - **Trading Disk**: The trading disk's allocation of interest - rate bonds will contract overall, with internal differentiation and more cautious strategies [86]. 6. Equity Disturbance: From "Strong Stocks, Weak Bonds" to "Stock - Bond Re - balance" - **2025**: The stock - bond relationship was mainly "strong stocks, weak bonds", with the strength of the equity market suppressing the bond market [95]. - **2026**: The equity market is likely to continue to recover, and the stock - bond relationship will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state, with the squeezing effect on the bond market weakening [99]. 7. Capital Price: Continued Loose Capital, Marginally Increased Volatility - **2025**: Capital prices showed a downward trend with converging volatility, with the central bank guiding the centralization of capital prices and suppressing short - term fluctuations [102]. - **2026**: Capital prices are expected to show a double - feature of "systematically downward centralization and magnified periodic volatility", with the central bank relying on multiple tools to maintain stability [103]. 8. Outlook for Major Asset Trends - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields may show a "quasi - inverted V" pattern, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond yield [109][111]. - **A - shares**: The equity market is likely to show a pattern of "shock - strengthening and structural differentiation", focusing on new - quality productivity [112]. - **US Stocks**: US stocks will continue to rise with technology leading, but the upward slope may slow down, and there is a risk of valuation bubbles [113]. - **US Bonds**: US bond yields will show a downward - centralization and steepening curve, but supply pressure and inflation resilience will limit the downward space [114]. - **Gold**: Gold prices will likely remain high, fluctuating upwards, but the upward momentum may slow down [115].

年度报告——棉花 [Table_Summary] ★ 国际市场基本 面分析及展望 1、中美贸易战休战一年，2026 年贸易环境相对平稳；美国面临 中期选举，预期将迎来激进宽松的货币政策及财政政策，且全 球大多主要经济体通胀受控、经济增长诉求提升，普遍进入宽 松周期，预计全球经济将逐步走向温和复苏，全球棉花需求前 景向好。2、26/27 年度美国及全球棉花种植面积预计减少，而 全球消费预期改善，26/27 全球及美国供需预期收紧。 ICE 棉价预估运行区间 60-80 美分/磅，关注中美贸易政策及产 地天气变化情况。 ★ 国内市场基本面分析及展望 1、尽管增产，但截至目前，全国棉花商业库存同比基本持平。 若商业库存同比没有明显的增量，市场将担心年度后期是否会 重蹈上年度供应紧张的覆辙，密切关注年后商业库存去化情况。 2、消费前景向好：中国纺服出口需求前景向好；内需在政策扶 持下料维持温和增长态势；国内棉纱社会库存不高也给了隐性 需求增长的空间；新疆棉纺产能快速扩张将支撑刚需用棉量。 3、25/26 年度国内供需预期紧平衡；26/27 年度疆棉种植面积调 减可能导致国内棉花产量下降，产需缺口或将有所扩大，届时 可 ...

再次，持续坚持利率政策与资金效率并重，二者的融合性和互动性将进一步增强。货币政策例会强 调"强化央行政策利率引导"和"畅通货币政策传导机制"，旨在完善市场化利率形成机制，提高资金使用 效率，减少空转套利，同时保持社会综合融资成本处于低位运行，以提升货币政策传导效果和资金配置 效率。 首先，货币政策立场仍保持积极性和支持性，我国经济持续复苏向好的货币政策环境将更加宽松。 货币政策例会明确提出"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，强调通过公开市场操作、降准等工具保持银行体系 流动性充裕，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，引导货币信贷合理增长，促进社会融资规模与经济增长目 标相匹配。这意味着，在下一阶段以及2026年，我国央行将为经济回升向好创造更加适宜的货币金融环 境。 其次，结构性政策工具将持续发力，我国重点产业和重点领域将获得更大力度的金融信贷支持。货 币政策例会提出要"扎实做好金融'五篇大文章'"，即加力支持科技创新、制造业转型升级、绿色发展、 普惠金融和养老金融。结构性货币政策工具将进一步优化，用于引导金融资源更多流向国民经济重点领 域和薄弱环节。 近日，央行召开2025年四季度（总第111次）货币政策例会，对前三季度货 ...

在12月10日举行的货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以9票赞成、3票反对的结果通过再度降息25 个基点的决定。其12名成员中，两人认为应保持基准利率不变，一人认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员认为，如果未来通胀如预期回落，进一步降息是合适的。但一些官员认 为，此次降息后，应在一段时间内维持利率不变，以让决策者评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动 的延迟影响，并有更多时间建立对通胀向2%目标回落的信心。 新华社纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会12月30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储官员对此次会议降息决定并未达成一致，对未来货币政策预期也存在明显分歧。 多名与会官员认为，美联储为应对就业下行风险而放松货币政策的立场是正确的。也有不少官员指出， 通胀走高风险正变得根深蒂固，在此情况下进一步降息，将被误认为决策者对实现2%通胀目标的承诺 在降低。 根据会议纪要，所有与会官员均同意，目前没有预设的货币政策路径，未来政策应根据最新数据、经济 前景和整体风险状况进行调整。（完） 会议纪要还显示，与会官员的总体判断是，受美国政府加征关税影响，通胀上行风险依然较高 ...

2025海外央行风云录：谁在降息，谁在"逆行"？ 3% Jan Feb Mar Mav Jul Aua Sept Oct Nov Dec Apr Jun 欧洲央行 & 英国央行- Feb Mar Mav Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun 25 75 澳洲联储& 加拿大央行 Feb Apr May Jul Sept Dec Mar Jun Aug Oct Nov Jan O 美联储主席鲍威尔在年内最后一次公开市场委员会会议上释放鹰 派宽松信号。他强调，当前利率已处于中性区间高位,货币政策 无预设路径,后续将逐次会议做决策。 O 高盛预计,美联储将在2026年上半年放缓宽松节奏,预计1月暂 停降息后,3月和6月各降息一次,最终将联邦基金利率降至 3%-3.25%。 ○ 欧洲央行2025年共实施三次降息，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再 融资利率和边际借贷利率分别降至2.00%、2.15%、2.40%。 欧洲央行最新声明指出,最新的评估再次确认通胀将在中期内稳 定在2%的目标，并预计通胀水平将在2028年回归至这一目标。 O 英国央行全年四次降息，基准利率降至3.75%。 英国央行 ...

.3 中州國際證券有限公司 研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 港股晨報 環球市場指數 | | | 漲跌(日) | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 香港股市 | | | | | 恒生指數 | 25,855 | 0.9% | 28.9% | | H股指數 | 8,991 | 1.1% | 23.3% | | 中國股市 | | | | | 上海綜合指數 | 3,965 | 0.0% | 18.3% | | 深證成份指數 | 13,604 | 0.5% | 30.6% | | 滬深300指數 | 4,651 | 0.3% | 18.2% | | 其他新興國家 | | | | | 巴西IBOVSPA指數 | 161,125 | 0.4% | 34.0% | | 亞洲股市 | | | | | 日經指數 | 50,339 | -0.4% | 26.2% | | 韓國綜合指數 | 4,214 | -0.2% | 75.6% | | 富時新加坡指數 | 4,655 | 0.5% | 22.9% | | 歐美股市 | | | | | 道鐘斯工業指數 | 48,367 | -0 ...