国债期货周报 2025年6月16日——6月20日 杜淑芳 期货从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000690 证券代码：839979 本周行情回顾 本周权益市场走弱，国债期货市场延续偏强震荡格局，各期限合约全线上涨，超长期限品种表现尤为亮眼。基本面数据方面，5月份，随着我 国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点，CPI同比降幅已连续3个月持平于0.1%，而核 心CPI同比涨幅则创近3月新高，升至近一年来最高点。PPI同比继续负增长，但在关税风险阶段性缓和，对市场风险偏好以及商品需求预期起到较 好的改善作用下，后期我国PPI也有望边际改善。5月社会消费品零售超出市场预期，显示在消费品以旧换新刺激政策下，我国内需有一定程度改善 但国固定资产投资不及预期，同时地产端商品房销售面积进一步下滑，基本面完全复苏仍然任重道远。金融数据方面，5月降息降准落地后，企业 和居民融资成本及信贷可获得性都有改善。前5个月社融增量累计18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万亿元，显示财政政策持续发力，但信贷结构仍以政 府债券融资为主。居民消费信心不足。企业中长期贷款增 ...

研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

国债期货早盘开盘 金十期货6月23日讯，2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨 0.01%，10年期国债期货（T）主力合约涨0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.11%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the stronger side". The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak, and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts. In the long - term, the logic of upward - trending treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. So, in the short - term, treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Time - period definitions: Short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation on the stronger side", overall view is "oscillation", and the core logic is weak macro - economic indicators and rising monetary easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market - Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation" [5]. - Last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts because of weakening macro - economic indicators and the need for a loose monetary environment for macro - policies in the second half of the year, as well as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and reduced exchange - rate pressure. In the long - term, the upward logic of treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率多上行，短端相对偏弱。国债期货走势分化，30年期主力合约涨0.16%，5年期及2年期主力合约微跌。资金面略显敛 意，央行公开市场转为净投放驰援，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微升，七天质押式回购利率则上行近2个bp。半年末资金面有些扰动，不过还是看好7 月行情，包括楼市在内的基本面数据很弱，而且大的政策宽松氛围也在。 2、资金面：6月19日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2035亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2035亿元，中标量2035亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日1193亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放842亿元。 3、基差：TS主 ...

国债期货收盘，30年期国债主连涨0.16%报121.06，10年期国债主连收平，5年期国债主连跌0.02%，2年 期国债主连跌0.01%。 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.10%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [6][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. After the policy stance is released at the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no visible main line, so the operation should be defensive, waiting for the release of capital crowding [1][6] - Stock index options: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued to seize potential volatility - rising opportunities [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The short - end is favorable, while the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield has limited downward momentum, so attention should be paid to the curve steepening [2][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Views**: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their inter - period spreads have changed, and the positions have also changed [6] - **Logic**: The main lines of new consumption and innovative drugs have corrected, the momentum effect has weakened, and the Hang Seng AH Premium Index has reached a five - year low, which may drag down the A - share market. After the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no clear main line [1][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Views**: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued [7] - **Logic**: The market liquidity has not improved significantly, the volatility is at a low level, and the sentiment indicators are neutral to optimistic, but the volume is weak, so the direction strategy should be on short - term wait - and - see, and a small - position call - buying can be tried [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt the double - buying strategy [7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Views**: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed [7] - **Logic**: The MLF expired, but the inter - bank repurchase rate declined, the funds were loose, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The central bank's attitude towards the funds is still supportive, and large banks are buying short - term bonds, but the long - term yield has limited downward momentum [2][7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Be cautious. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: Steepening the curve in the medium - term has a higher odds [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025 are presented, including fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, unemployment rate, CPI, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - "New Fed Wire" Nick Timiraos believes that the Fed may cut interest rates this week if it were not for tariff risks [11] - The Bank of Japan maintains the target interest rate and will reduce the purchase of Japanese government bonds starting from April 2026 [11] - China plans to implement zero - tariff measures for 53 African countries through a new free - trade agreement [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Release Date: June 17, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Major Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 16, 2025, yields varied across countries, e.g., the US was 4.448%, the UK was 4.532%, and China was 1.644%. - Changes in yields differed in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.047%, a one - week change of - 0.028%, a one - month change of - 0.032%, and a one - year change of 0.172%. [3] 2.2 Major Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - As of June 16, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.901%, and Germany was 1.838%. - Yield changes also varied over different time frames. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.040%, a one - week change of - 0.020%, a one - month change of - 0.060%, and a one - year change of - 0.920%. [3] 2.3 Dollar Exchange Rates against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On June 16, 2025, exchange rates and their changes were presented. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.493 with a latest change of - 0.92%. - Changes over one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were also provided. The dollar - to - Brazilian real had a one - week change of - 1.19%, a one - month change of - 3.05%, and a one - year change of 3.66%. [3] 2.4 Stock Indexes and Credit Bond Indexes - Stock indexes of major economies and emerging economies showed different performances. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - week change of 0.04%, a one - month change of - 3.29%, and a one - year change not given. - Credit bond indexes also had their respective changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.15%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of 0.86%, and a one - year change of 4.61%. [3] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - A - shares closed at 3388.73 with a 0.35% increase, the CSI 300 closed at 3873.80 with a 0.25% increase, etc. [4] 3.2 Valuation - PE (TTM) values were provided for different indexes, such as 12.78 for the CSI 300, 10.91 for the SSE 50, etc., along with their环比 changes. [4] 3.3 Risk Premium - Risk premium data and their环比 changes were presented for some indexes, e.g., the S&P 500 had a risk premium of - 0.55 with a环比 change of - 0.09. [4] 3.4 Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows were given for different markets, such as 122.23 for A - shares and - 595.70 for the 5 - day average. [4] 3.5 Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and their环比 changes were provided for different markets, e.g., 12150.76 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets with a环比 change of - 2521.21. [4] 3.6 Basis and Spread - Basis and spread data were given for stock index futures, such as - 4.00 for the IF basis with a - 0.10% spread. [4] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) were presented, all with 0.00% changes on the given day. - Money market fund rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were also provided, e.g., R001 was 1.4450% with a - 13.00 BP change. [5]