Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

智利比奥比奥电台（BIOBIOCHILE）网站11月28日报道，根据智利国家统计局最 新数据，截至2025年8-10月季度，全国失业率为8.4%，较去年同期下降0.2个百分点。 这一改善主要得益于就业人口增速（1.5%）超过劳动力总量增幅（1.3%）。值得注意 的是，女性失业率显著下降0.5个百分点至8.8%，而男性失业率微升0.1个百分点至 8.2%。就业增长主要来自行政服务、医疗健康和交通运输三大领域，同时非正规就业 率持续改善至26.2%。大都会区失业率为8.6%，表现优于全国平均水平。 （原标题：智利公布最新季度失业率） ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日消息，日本10月失业率为2.6%，预期2.50%，前值2.60%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the official cash rate (OCR) down to 2.25%, in response to rising inflation and a weak labor market [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The RBNZ's decision to lower the OCR is influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 3% in Q3, which is at the upper limit of the official target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ expects inflation to decline to around 2% by mid-2026, indicating a long-term outlook on inflation management [1]. - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cut rates eight times, totaling a reduction of 300 basis points, which is significantly higher than the 150 basis points cut by the Federal Reserve [5]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains weak, with a rising unemployment rate that reached 5.3% in Q3, surpassing the 5% threshold for full employment [3]. - The RBNZ's rationale for the rate cut mirrors that of the Federal Reserve, focusing on the challenges within the labor market [3]. Interest Rate Context - The current cash rate of 2.25% is close to the neutral rate estimates of the Federal Reserve (2.5%-3.0%) and the European Central Bank (1.75%-2.25%), suggesting limited room for further significant rate adjustments [5]. - The RBNZ has not explicitly defined its neutral rate range, but the current rate is seen as supportive and stimulative for the economy [5]. Technical Analysis - The NZD/USD currency pair is in a medium-term bearish trend, with significant support levels identified around 0.5500, which has historically been a rebound point [7]. - The current market price of 0.5675 is close to this long-term support level, indicating potential for a significant rebound [7].

文/冉学东 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 金融市场不在于实体经济到底如何，而是人们认为将会如何，就是预期会如何。预期决定市场走势。 美国最新公布的数据显示出，通胀预期还是比较混沌。美国9月批发商品价格环比上涨0.9%，其中60% 的涨幅归因于汽油成本上升。剔除食品和能源价格后，PPI同比上涨2.6%，为 2024 年7月以来最温和的 涨幅。 但是最新出台的美国9月零售销售表现不及预期，环比增幅收窄至0.2%，不仅低于0.4%的市场预期，也 较8月0.6%的增速明显放缓。更值得关注的是，美国9月零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比增0.1%，远低 于预期增长0.3%的水平，显示消费者支出动能正在减弱。 尽管经通胀调整后的实际零售额已实现连续12个月同比增长，显示消费需求仍具韧性，但核心零售销售 （剔除汽车、汽油等类别）环比增0.1%，且未经季节调整的数据显示零售销售出现显著下滑，表明内 生消费动能正在减弱。 正是在以上数据基础上，11月25日，美联储理事米兰在接受媒体采访时表示，美国经济需要大幅降息， 现行货币政策"阻碍了经济发展"，并将失 ...

近期，随着美联储内部分歧加大，12月降息的概率持续下降，黄金上冲至4250美元附近后持续回落。11月20日晚间公布的美国9 月非农意外大增11.9万人，远超预期的5万人，一定程度上增加了下个月不降息的可能性。 目前，美联储内部在降息议题上的分歧愈发明显。鸽派阵营的代表，如美联储理事米兰、沃勒和鲍曼等，认为为避免劳动力市 场进一步疲软，应继续降息；而鹰派代表施密德、柯林斯和穆萨莱姆等则担心通胀进一步上升，主张保持谨慎；鲍威尔、杰斐 逊、威廉姆斯等温和派则认为应保持耐心。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克指出，当前通胀率高于美联储设定的2%目标，若过早降低利率，可能会延长高通胀期，并刺激金融市 场过度冒险。目前金融条件相对宽松，而政府停摆导致部分关键数据缺失，未来的不确定性增加。 根据芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，12月降息25个基点的概率为39.6%，维持利率不变的概率为60.4%；到明年1月，累计降息25 个基点的概率为50.2%，维持利率不变的概率为39.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为20.2%。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，自8月底以来，黄金价格加速上涨超过1000美元，而自10月中下旬起出现明显回 ...

美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）呼吁大幅降低利率以支持美国劳动力市场，他认为当前货币政策过于 紧缩，正在推高失业率。 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 不过米兰也承认，随着降息进程的推进，快速行动的必要性将会降低。他对2026年经济前景表达了相对 乐观的态度，并强调几乎所有的通胀超标都是"幻觉"，主要源于住房市场的供需失衡和货币政策的滞 后效应。 金融市场目前预计美联储将在12月9日至10日的会议上降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前 的3.75%至4%进一步下调。 劳动力市场疲软成降息主要理由 米兰将失业率上升直接归因于过紧的货币政策。他表示： 我们必须认识到失业率一直在上升，这是货币政策过于紧缩的结果。 最新数据显示，9月份失业率从8月的4.3%升至4.4%。 他警告称，如果美联储不继续以相当快的速度降息，货币政策将"扼杀所有积极发展的萌芽"，劳动力市 场将无法实现应有的复苏。Miran强调： 我们将成为失业率持续上升的源头，这并非好事。 他指出，近期的就业数据应该促使更多委员会成员认同继续降息的必要性。 周二 ...

美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)周二在电视采访中表示，由于美联储过高的利率目标，导致就业市场恶化。他建议加大降息力度以支持经济。与 此同时，美联储内部关于是否降息仍然分歧巨大。 米兰坚持大幅降息 米兰在今年8月才被特朗普提名，并在9月当选美联储理事。其首次参加美联储议息会议就提议降息50个基点。上周非农就业数据发布后，米兰表示，如果他的投票 在下一次议息会议中具有决定性作用，他将支持降息25个基点。 美联储内部分歧巨大 虽然米兰一再坚持其大幅降息挽救经济的主张，但在美联储内部，关于是否降息仍然分歧巨大。最新的9月份就业数据显示，就业增长大于预期，失业率从8月份的 4.3%微升至4.4%。 除米兰外，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在数据发布后也释放了鸽派信号。他表示，随着劳动力市场降温，美联储在近期仍有进一步降息的空间，以将政策立场调整 至更接近中性水平。 威廉姆斯表示："短期内有进一步调整的空间……以使政策立场更接近中性区间。 " 他强调，在将通胀恢复至2%的目标时，"同样重要的是避免给劳动力市场带来不 应有的风险"。威廉姆斯的措辞，尤其是"短期内"这一表述，被市场解读为支持降息是阻力最小路径 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline in equity assets and commodities, with major indices such as the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 7.2% and the Nasdaq down by 2.7% [2][3][11] - The S&P 500 sectors showed mixed performance, with communication services, healthcare, and consumer staples rising by 3.0%, 1.8%, and 0.8% respectively, while information technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors fell by 4.7%, 3.3%, and 3.1% [6][11] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.0 basis points to 4.06%, while the dollar index increased by 0.9% to 100.15, indicating a stronger dollar against other currencies [15][23] Group 2 - The U.S. announced a trade framework agreement with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador to lower food tariffs, aiming to alleviate rising food prices due to tariffs and supply shocks [49][50] - Japan's government approved a comprehensive economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen, focusing on short-term subsidies, crisis management investments, and defense spending to boost GDP [66] - The U.S. cumulative fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.64 trillion, with total expenditures of $7.22 trillion and tax revenues of $4.44 trillion, indicating a significant fiscal imbalance [56][57]