Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Italy for August is reported at 6%, which aligns with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's unemployment rate in August remained at 5.6%, matching the lowest level since the data collection began in 2012, indicating a strong labor market recovery [1] Employment Data - The number of unemployed individuals in Brazil decreased to 6.1 million, the lowest in nearly 12 years, while the total employment reached 102.4 million [1] - The employment rate for the working-age population held steady at a historical high of 58.1%, with formal employment contracts increasing to 39.1 million [1] Job Creation - In August, Brazil added 147,000 formal jobs, contributing to a total increase of 1.4 million jobs over the past 12 months [1] Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the economic vitality in Brazil to government stimulus measures, demographic changes, and technological advancements [1] - Increased job opportunities and income are stimulating consumer spending, although strong demand is also raising inflationary pressures [1] Monetary Policy - To combat rising prices, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15% in June [1]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, with only the new member Milan voting against it, advocating for a 50 bp cut[6] - The dot plot indicates an increase in expected rate cuts from 4 to 5 times between 2025 and 2027, with 2025 seeing an adjustment from 2 to 3 cuts[8][11] - Economic forecasts show an increase in GDP growth and inflation predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to remain low[7] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped from 4.05% to below 4%, but rebounded to around 4.08% after Powell's press conference[11] - Short-term rates have fully priced in the rate cuts, while long-term rates remain constrained by high inflation and term premiums[11] Future Considerations - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be tested in 2026, particularly with political pressures from the Trump administration and upcoming midterm elections[5][11] - The market's current pricing of rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with potential volatility if inflation rises or employment data improves unexpectedly[16] Investment Strategy - Buying long-term bonds on dips may be a favorable strategy, as the market appears to have adequately priced in long-term risks[17]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Barkin noted that the unemployment rate appears somewhat unstable, indicating potential fluctuations in the labor market [1] - There has been an improvement in inflation, which cannot be overlooked, suggesting a positive trend in economic conditions [1] - Recent revisions to hiring data have been made, reflecting changes in the employment landscape [1]

来源：滚动播报 美联储巴尔金：必须密切关注美联储目前对通胀和失业率将如何演变所知甚少这一情况。 ...

美联储巴尔金：通胀走势不妙，但失业率情况也不佳。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, primarily due to weakened consumer spending [4][6] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, although it has remained low overall, with job growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [5][6] - Inflation has recently risen, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 2.7% year-over-year as of August, still above the long-term target of 2% [6][7] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, describing this move as "risk management" in response to concerns about a weakening labor market rather than inflation threats [1][7] - The Fed's policy stance is flexible and will be adjusted based on incoming data and economic outlook, with indications that further rate cuts may occur in the future [1][7] - The current monetary policy is seen as moderately restrictive but aims to better respond to changing economic conditions [7] Market Sentiment - Stock prices are perceived to be "fairly high" in valuation, suggesting that the market may be overvalued according to the Fed's assessment [1][3] - Investor sentiment is cautious as they await the release of the latest PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure [1][3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 就目前而言，美联储更担心的是就业。 由于美国总统特朗普对进口到美国的商品征收新关税，通胀并未像预期的那样大幅上涨，大多数美联储 官员认为，任何由关税引起的通胀都将只是暂时的。 然而，鲍威尔及其同僚也意识到，他们过去曾对通胀判断失误，并且可能再次失误。鲍威尔上周 说，"现在没有无风险的路径。该做什么并非显而易见。所以我们必须密切关注通胀。" 在美股冲向历史新高之际，华尔街正紧盯着美联储主席鲍威尔的一言一行。投资者希望他能在周三就美 联储打算降息多少给出更多线索。 鲍威尔定于在罗德岛州的一次午餐会上发表他的经济预测讲话，而就在几天前，美联储刚进行了今年的 首次降息，这次降息引发了最新一轮的股市反弹。 如果历史可以借鉴，鲍威尔可能不会有新的突破。然而，投资者肯定会仔细检索他的言论，以猜测美联 储未来降息的时机和规模。 博彩市场预测，美联储将在2025年最后两次会议，即10月和12月，每次都将其基准短期利率下调25个基 点。预计明年还会有更多降息，但美联储自己的预测表明，其行动速度将比许多投资者认为的要慢。 华尔街的美联储观察家们认为，鲍威尔支持今年进一步降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle, but there are significant divisions among officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach while others emphasize the importance of controlling inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points recently, but there is a notable split among officials about the need for additional cuts, with some projecting two more cuts by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - Stephen Miran, a newly appointed member of the Federal Reserve Board, argues for substantial rate cuts to prevent harm to the labor market, suggesting a target federal funds rate around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current rate [3]. - Some officials, like Alberto Musalem and Raphael Bostic, express caution regarding further rate cuts, emphasizing the need to prioritize inflation control despite rising unemployment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Employment - The upcoming employment report for September is critical, with the unemployment rate currently at a relatively low 4.3%, but job creation has slowed [6]. - The labor market's stability is attributed to stagnant job-seeking numbers, influenced by tightened immigration policies [6]. - Policymakers are monitoring various indicators, including unemployment rates among minorities and job prospects for young workers and graduates, to gauge economic trends [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The Federal Reserve's inflation target is set at 2%, but projections indicate that inflation may remain above this target through 2025, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.1% by year-end [8]. - Concerns about inflation are partly linked to the impact of tariffs, which are believed to have a temporary effect on price levels, with estimates suggesting tariffs contribute approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation [9]. - The Fed's view is that the inflationary impact of tariffs will eventually diminish as the costs are absorbed by businesses rather than fully passed on to consumers [9].

从当前到10月28日至29日的货币政策会议期间，可供官员评估经济状况的新增数据相对有限，就业 市场面临的风险程度可能将再次决定是否会降息25个基点。不过，对通胀走向的担忧，可能成为鲍 威尔如何平衡美联储内部分歧的关键。 降息前景分歧显著 自去年12月以后，美联储终于再次按下了降息键。然而，美联储官员就是否有必要进一步降息存在 明显分歧。尽管利率中值预期显示，到2025年底前还将再降息两次（每次25个基点），但利率点阵 图显示有7位政策制定者认为不需要再实施降息。 上周二加入美联储理事会并投出唯一反对票的白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）周一 发表讲话称，有必要大幅降息，以避免劳动力市场遭受不必要的损害。他认为，今年联邦经济政策的 2025.09. 23 本文字数：2402，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周重启宽松周期后， 本周包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的超过10位联储官员将发表公开讲话。 调整已显著压低了理论上的 "中性利率"。 "我认为适当的联邦基金利率应在 2.5%左右，比当前政策 利率低近2个百分点。" 周 一 两 位 地 方 联 储 官 员 表 达 了 对 继 ...