1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively explores the fundamentals, trading strategies, and price characteristics of stock index futures in the Chinese market. It analyzes the development, trading mechanisms, and influencing factors of stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with a detailed understanding and practical strategies for investment and risk management [18][167][204]. - It emphasizes the importance of basis in stock index futures research, as it is a key indicator for many hedging and arbitrage strategies. The report also highlights the impact of factors such as market sentiment, dividends, and macro - economic indicators on the basis [89][138][109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Preliminary Exploration - **Definition and Characteristics**: Stock index futures are standardized financial futures contracts with stock indices as underlying assets. They have features like standardized contract design, margin - leveraged trading, T + 0 trading, and daily mark - to - market settlement. They play functions such as hedging, speculation, and arbitrage [18][19]. - **Differences from Stock Indices**: Stock indices are used to measure market trends and cannot be directly traded, while stock index futures are tradable contracts with expiration dates, allowing for long and short positions. Their price fluctuations are affected by different factors [18]. - **Contract Design**: There are four listed stock index futures varieties in China. Each variety has four contracts with different expiration dates. The contract value is calculated by multiplying the contract price by the contract multiplier. The naming, switching, and characteristics of contracts are also introduced [27][37]. - **Market Development**: The development of China's stock index futures market has gone through stages of initial exploration, suspension, policy research, and gradual relaxation. The number of varieties has gradually increased, and market liquidity has gradually recovered [38][39][42]. - **Trading Groups**: The participants in the stock index futures market include hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs. Different types of institutional investors have different participation purposes and restrictions [52]. - **Seat Data**: Seat data in the stock index futures market reflects the behavior and confidence of investment entities. By analyzing seat characteristics, seats can be classified, which helps in understanding market trends [66][82]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Basic Research - **Basis Overview**: Basis is defined as the difference between the stock index futures price and the index price. It has characteristics such as converging to zero as the expiration date approaches and showing mean - reversion. The annualized basis rate is used for comparison between different contracts [88][89]. - **Basis and Market Conditions**: The basis can act as a market sentiment indicator and has a leading relationship with the market. It can also show trend divergence from the index, providing insights into market trends [95][98]. - **Basis Distribution Characteristics**: Stock index futures are often in a state of contango, mainly due to hedging demand. The basis is related to factors such as macro - economic indicators (e.g., treasury bond yields), shows seasonality, and has a certain convergence speed [102][109][114]. - **Basis Modeling**: Building a basis prediction model requires identifying relevant factors, quantifying them with appropriate factors, and combining them through mathematical models. The influencing factors are divided into those from the spot market and the futures market [124]. - **Stock Index Futures and Index Dividends**: Index dividends affect the basis of stock index futures. The price index will decline with dividends, and the basis needs to be adjusted according to dividend expectations. Methods for calculating index dividend points and predicting ex - dividend dates are also provided [138][142][148]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Trading Strategies - **Hedging Strategies**: Hedging aims to reduce investment risks by establishing opposite positions. The four elements of hedging are variety selection, contract selection, hand - number selection, and timing. Different methods can be used for each element to optimize the hedging effect and reduce costs [167][170][175]. - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage Strategies**: Cash - and - carry arbitrage takes advantage of the price difference between the spot and futures markets. When the futures are at a premium, a long - spot and short - futures strategy is used; when at a discount, the opposite is done. Setting appropriate opening thresholds can help balance risk and return [204]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategies**: Calendar spread arbitrage exploits the price difference between contracts with different expiration dates. The influencing factors of the spread include market sentiment, basis, and trading behavior. When the market is expected to rise, a long - far - short - near strategy can be used; when it is expected to fall, a long - near - short - far strategy is appropriate [208][214].

下游畏高情绪较重 铜价高位震荡 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-03，沪铜主力合约开于 80560元/吨，收于 80560元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.02%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80,460元/吨，收于 80,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.27%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市现货交投清淡，SMM1#电解铜报价80870-81090元/吨，现货升水70-160元/吨，均价115元/ 吨，较前日微降5元。期货主力合约早盘自81000元高位回落至80760元后企稳，最终收于80900元附近，隔月价差 维持在210-250元区间。市场呈现供大于求态势，早盘平水铜报价80-100元/吨后快速下调至70元方有成交，好铜因 货源紧缺维持130-160元高升水。湿法铜缅甸货源贴水20元至平水成交，非注册品牌贴水50元左右。考虑到进口铜 陆续到港且下游畏高情绪浓厚，预计今日现货升水将维持当前水平。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，在经济数据方面，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加14.7万人，好于预期，失业率意外下 降至4.1%。交易员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and transformation of China's petrochemical industry, particularly in the plastic sector, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in international trade and the increasing role of futures markets in establishing price benchmarks [1][2][3]. Industry Development - In 2024, China's petrochemical industry is projected to generate revenue of 16 trillion yuan, with the plastic sector contributing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan [2]. - Plastic product exports have surpassed 90 billion USD, accounting for 35% of the global market, with an annual growth rate of over 6% in exports to Southeast Asia [2]. - The import volume of PVC is expected to decrease by 20.4% year-on-year to 403,000 tons, while exports will reach 3.108 million tons, representing 14% of total production [2]. - PP imports are projected to drop by 12.6% to 2.356 million tons, while exports will increase by 88.2% to 2.162 million tons [2]. Pricing Concerns - Pricing methods in international trade are a major concern for companies, with many relying on spot price indices or negotiated prices [3][4]. - Issues with index pricing include lack of transparency, data collection delays, and the inability to reflect market fluctuations promptly [3][4]. - Companies are increasingly looking to the futures market for pricing solutions to mitigate risks associated with price volatility during long shipping cycles [4]. Futures Market Utilization - The adoption of futures pricing and related trading models has become widespread in the domestic chemical market, with over 90% of spot trades in certain chemicals using DCE futures contracts as pricing references [5][6]. - DCE has implemented over 20 optimization measures since 2021 to adapt to industry needs and enhance risk management [6][7]. - Innovations in delivery systems, such as group delivery and trade warehouse systems, have improved the efficiency and accessibility of futures trading for chemical companies [7][8]. Cost Reduction Initiatives - DCE has revised brand management policies to lower participation costs for chemical companies, resulting in over 97% of stored products being exempt from inspection [8][9]. - The reduction of risk deposits for delivery warehouses has alleviated financial pressure on companies, with over 31 million yuan in risk deposits returned [8][9]. Global Competitiveness - The use of futures pricing in exports has enhanced price transparency and efficiency, allowing companies to better manage profits and risks in the global market [14]. - The establishment of a recognized domestic futures market can help mitigate the impact of international price fluctuations and strengthen national economic security [14].

Core Insights - The Chinese glass industry is undergoing a profound transformation, with Hebei Zhengda Glass leveraging the futures market to provide a valuable model for the industry’s upgrade [1] - Traditional glass manufacturing has been hindered by price volatility, overcapacity, and thin profit margins, but the futures market has injected new momentum into the industry [1] - Zhengda Glass has effectively utilized futures and options to mitigate market risks and optimize operational strategies, transitioning from passive responses to proactive management [1] Industry Developments - Glass companies in the Shijiazhuang region are advancing towards high-end production, empowered by the futures market's price discovery function [2] - These companies are employing innovative models such as basis trading and "futures pricing + flexible supply" to enhance sales channels and customer service quality, thereby increasing market competitiveness [2] - The integration of the futures market with the glass industry represents a significant step in the transformation and upgrading of China's real economy [2] Future Outlook - As the integration of production and finance deepens, the futures market will serve as a "safety lock" for hedging, a "navigation instrument" for price discovery, and an "accelerator" for resource allocation [2] - The Chinese glass industry is expected to progress steadily and further along the path of transformation and upgrading [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Zhengda Glass has successfully transformed its traditional manufacturing model by integrating futures trading, allowing the company to navigate market uncertainties and enhance its operational efficiency [1][5][14]. Group 1: Historical Development - Zhengda Glass was established in 1980 and has evolved from a small glass factory to a significant player in the national glass industry, leveraging advanced production techniques and a focus on quality [2][4]. - The company faced severe challenges during the 2007-2008 glass price crash, leading to significant inventory issues and financial strain [3][2]. - In response to the crisis, Zhengda Glass adopted unconventional measures, such as recycling unsold glass, to manage costs and reduce inventory [3][4]. Group 2: Adoption of Futures Market - Zhengda Glass began exploring the futures market in 2012, initially viewing it as a high-risk tool, but shifted to actively participating by 2014 when it became a delivery warehouse for glass futures [5][6]. - The decision to engage with the futures market was driven by the need to improve inventory management and enhance the efficiency of glass trade [5][6]. - The company developed a unique "three-dimensional integration" model that combines futures trading with its production and sales processes, allowing for better risk management and resource allocation [6][9]. Group 3: Strategic Implementation - In 2023, Zhengda Glass utilized its futures trading strategies to navigate market fluctuations, successfully locking in profits and managing costs during periods of price volatility [7][9]. - The company demonstrated its ability to adapt by selling glass futures to hedge against price drops while simultaneously managing raw material costs through futures contracts [7][8]. - Zhengda Glass's operational efficiency improved significantly, with quarterly profit margin fluctuations reduced from ±15% to ±5%, and inventory turnover rates increased from 6.3 times in 2019 to 9.8 times in 2024 [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Innovations - Zhengda Glass established a specialized trading subsidiary in 2023, integrating its operations with futures trading to enhance its service offerings and create new revenue streams [16][17]. - The company is actively promoting a "cooperative hedging" model among small and medium-sized glass processing enterprises, fostering collaboration and shared risk management [17]. - Looking ahead, Zhengda Glass aims to deepen its engagement with the futures market, leveraging data analysis for strategic planning and operational efficiency [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that pure benzene futures and options will officially start trading on July 8, which has garnered significant attention from the industry, with multiple companies expressing their intent to actively participate in the initial trading [1]. Industry Challenges - Companies in the pure benzene industry are currently facing multiple operational pressures, with price volatility being the primary challenge. The prices of pure benzene and its downstream derivatives are influenced by various factors including crude oil prices, import arbitrage, and new production capacity [3]. - The frequent occurrence of wide price fluctuations creates uncertainty for companies, necessitating more effective risk management tools to improve their operational stability [3]. - Domestic companies lack sufficient pricing power in the pure benzene market, as the liquidity of spot transactions primarily relies on imported goods, which are priced based on the Platts Korea offshore price model. This limits domestic companies' ability to control absolute pricing [3]. Corporate Preparations for Trading - Industry companies have shown strong interest in the launch of pure benzene futures and options, with many already participating in preliminary contract research and familiarizing themselves with relevant rules [4]. - The core application area of these derivative tools for companies is the hedging function, allowing them to conduct prudent hedging operations based on their spot exposure and risk preferences, thereby better managing price risks [4]. - Companies are also considering point pricing transactions, which would provide a more transparent pricing benchmark and reduce information asymmetry in trading [4]. - Participation in the delivery process is another important consideration for companies, as it would facilitate regional circulation of pure benzene resources and optimize resource allocation within the industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 by Dalian Commodity Exchange is expected to provide effective risk management tools for the pure benzene industry, with companies eager to participate in initial trading [1][4]. Industry Overview - Pure benzene is a key organic chemical raw material with downstream applications in various sectors including electrical appliances, construction materials, packaging, and fiber materials. China is the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene globally [2][3]. - The rapid changes in the supply and demand structure of the spot market have increased uncertainty for companies in the pure benzene industry, highlighting the urgent need for suitable risk management tools [2]. Challenges Faced by Companies - Companies face several operational challenges, including a lack of pricing power in the domestic pure benzene market, increased market credit risks due to price volatility, and mismatched product liquidity between pure benzene and its downstream derivatives [3]. - The reliance on traditional methods such as long-term contracts and inventory adjustments for risk management is insufficient, especially during extreme market fluctuations [2][3]. Expectations from Futures and Options - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options is anticipated to enhance market trading methods, improve hedging mechanisms, and provide a reliable trading platform for industry participants [3][4]. - Companies plan to actively engage in the futures and options market to utilize hedging and price discovery functions, thereby supporting domestic resource circulation and industry chain transfer [4][5]. Contract Details - The first batch of pure benzene futures contracts includes four contracts with a trading unit of 30 tons per lot and a delivery method of physical delivery. The initial price fluctuation limit is set at 7% of the previous day's settlement price [4][5]. Future Market Development - Industry participants hope that the futures market will enhance liquidity, optimize the structure of market participants, and attract more industry clients and financial institutions. Continuous optimization of rules by the exchange is also desired to ensure alignment with industry changes [5].

Summary of BoHui Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - BoHui Co., Ltd. is located in Ningbo Zhenhai, with its production base in the Ningbo Chemical Park, a national first-class chemical park. The company specializes in deep processing of fuel oil and specialty oils, including transformer oil, lubricating base oil, heat transfer oil, and furnace fuel oil. The company operates in various sectors such as rubber processing, asphalt processing, and photovoltaic new materials. It is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Profit Improvement in Q1 2025 - The profit improvement in Q1 2025 is attributed to several factors: - Shift in business model from domestic sales to international trade, leveraging the export advantages of the Zhoushan Free Trade Zone [2][3]. - Product structure optimization, including the development of transformer oil and positioning for the cooling needs of computing servers [2][3]. - Technical upgrades to enhance raw material stability and product added value, leading to improved capacity utilization [2][4]. - Internal management cost optimization, including reduced management costs and streamlined processes [2][4]. Product Performance - High-sulfur fuel oil and fuel oils numbered 5-7 performed well, with an increasing export ratio. White oil and base oil remained stable, while asphalt production may be paused due to poor initial demonstration performance, with flexibility to adjust production based on market demand [2][5]. Raw Material Price Volatility Management - BoHui Co., Ltd. manages raw material price volatility through inventory adjustments and hedging strategies. If import prices are too high, the company may reduce purchase volumes. A dedicated team is established for futures trading to mitigate price risks during the procurement to sales cycle [2][6][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company has several competitive advantages: - Advanced technology using the Dutch jump process, leading to high technical content and a shorter establishment time for the second plant [2][8]. - Significant investment in safety and environmental protection, reducing regulatory risks [2][8]. - International presence with branches in Singapore and a trading company in Beijing, enhancing procurement and market intelligence [2][8]. - Strong product R&D and quality control capabilities, ensuring stable product performance [2][8]. - A cash-on-delivery sales model that accelerates cash flow [2][9]. Impact of State-Owned Shareholder Change - The change of the controlling shareholder to a state-owned platform is expected to enhance the company's stability, increase funding availability, deepen business channels, improve employee welfare, and adjust strategic layouts for quality and scale enhancement [2][9][10]. Digital Transformation - BoHui Co., Ltd. has made significant investments in digitalization, achieving recognition as a future factory in Zhejiang Province and a national-level intelligent manufacturing demonstration factory. However, due to poor performance in 2025, future digital investment plans remain uncertain [2][18]. Market and Tax Policy Impacts - The change in the consumption tax policy for refined oil from amount-based to production-based has impacted the company's overall capacity [2][13]. The company plans to adjust production structures in response to the underperformance of asphalt products and aims to enhance the yield of high-value white oil products through technical upgrades [2][14][15]. Future Plans - Currently, BoHui Co., Ltd. does not have plans to expand into overseas markets but aims to establish more international cooperation for raw material procurement, focusing on direct sourcing from suppliers in the Middle East and Singapore [2][20][21]. Other Important Information - The BoYue New Materials project was closed due to funding constraints and potential policy adjustments, with the government refunding the land costs [2][11]. The company is focusing on stabilizing existing business segments before expanding [2][11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic adjustments, product performance, competitive advantages, and future outlook.

格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 能源化工 2025年7月2日 能源化工研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格证号： F3085283 交易咨询证号： Z0019267 联系方式： wuzhiqiao@greendh .com 摘要： 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年7月2日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 纯苯期货上市前瞻 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 6月27日，中国证监会已同意大连商品交易所纯苯期货和期权注册 ，纯苯期货自2025年7月8日（星期二）上市交易，纯苯期货开展夜盘 交易。首批上市交易合约为BZ2603、BZ2604、BZ2605、BZ2606。 按照目前的供求关系，国内纯苯供减需增，但供应压力仍在于进 口维持高位水平（预计月均进口45万吨水平），静态基本面略好转。 下游五大需求（苯乙烯，己内酰胺，己二酸，苯胺和苯酚）中苯乙烯 和己内酰胺检修结束后产量恢复，将支撑纯苯价格；预计7-8月纯苯基 本面阶段性好转，库存去化但受制于高进口，去库斜率可能偏缓慢。 中长期看，芳烃调油驱动有限，原油消费旺季结束后或面临下行风险 ，纯苯基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum processing industry in Baise, Guangxi, is facing significant challenges due to a lack of pricing power and rising processing costs, leading to many companies operating at a loss and urgently needing risk management tools and pricing autonomy [2][3][4]. Industry Challenges - Baise's aluminum processing fees have fallen below the cost line for several months, with processing fees historically between 200-300 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point is 360 RMB/ton [2]. - Local aluminum processing companies rely on external market prices, specifically the Foshan South Storage price, which limits their ability to negotiate and manage price volatility [2][3]. - Many companies have reported continuous losses, with a 37 percentage point decline in profit margins year-on-year for those using traditional pricing models [2][3]. Risk Management Issues - The majority of local aluminum processing firms lack professional futures hedging teams, making it difficult to manage risks associated with price fluctuations [3]. - There is a shortage of skilled professionals in small and medium-sized enterprises, hindering their ability to effectively utilize futures markets for risk management [3]. - The scarcity of regional delivery warehouses limits the ability of companies to engage in physical delivery and risk control through futures markets [3]. Industry Development Initiatives - Baise is actively constructing a cross-border industrial chain that includes importing bauxite, alumina, aluminum processing, and exporting aluminum products [4]. - The establishment of the Guangxi Aluminum Products Storage and Trading Center aims to enhance competitiveness in the China-ASEAN aluminum industry [4]. - Companies like Jili Baikuang Group are focusing on financial tools to hedge risks and manage procurement costs, including developing dynamic pricing models [5][6]. Financial Innovations - The introduction of financial products such as "Hedging Loans" by local banks is helping small and medium enterprises manage risks more effectively [7]. - The development of an "in-transit warehouse" system is expected to reduce logistics costs significantly, enhancing the efficiency of the aluminum supply chain [8]. - The establishment of a regional pricing benchmark for aluminum products is underway, which will help stabilize pricing and improve market transparency [8]. Green Transformation Opportunities - The aluminum industry in Guangxi is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, focusing on recycled aluminum and new metallurgical materials [9]. - The upcoming launch of futures and options for casting aluminum alloy is anticipated to provide financial innovation and support for the recycling aluminum sector [9][10]. - Companies are optimistic about future growth due to national policy support and the long-term development prospects of the industry [10][11].