Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices around the $3,300 per ounce mark, driven by U.S. tariff policies and economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market sentiments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On June 2, gold prices broke through the $3,300 resistance level, with COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $3,384 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 2%, the largest single-day gain in nearly three weeks [1]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's announcement of increasing tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, which has led to a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. - Gold has experienced significant price fluctuations at the $3,300 level this year, previously hitting a historical high of $3,509 in April before dropping to $3,245 due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The $3,300 level has been a focal point for market participants, with recent price movements indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [2]. - The volatility in gold prices is exacerbated by the fluctuating tariff policies of the Trump administration and the market's expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - Recent data from the CFTC shows an increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 10,203 contracts, bringing the total to 174,184 contracts, which represents 39.8% of total positions [3]. - The total open interest decreased by 10,462 contracts or 2.34%, with 294 total traders in the market [3]. - Economic indicators reveal challenges for the U.S. economy, including a rise in initial jobless claims and a significant decline in corporate profits, which fell by $118.1 billion in Q1 2025, the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in play, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which could benefit gold prices [4].

关税和地缘政治，再次刺激金价大涨！ 6月2日，金价大幅上涨，现货黄金盘中涨超2%并突破3360美元关口。当日，港股黄金概念股也集体走强，潼 关黄金涨超18%，赤峰黄金涨近6%，中国黄金国际涨超4%，老铺黄金涨3.65%。 金价大涨，特朗普发出警告 高位震荡多日后，金价在6月2日大幅拉升。当天，现货黄金盘中涨超2%，价格突破3360美元/盎司；COMEX 黄金期货主力合约则突破3380美元/盎司，盘中涨幅也超过2%，并创下近三周最大单日涨幅。 从消息面来看，北京时间6月2日，美国总统特朗普继续就贸易法庭的关税裁决结果发出"警告"。特朗普在其自 创的社交平台"真相社交"上就法院和关税问题发表评论称，"如果法院以某种方式就关税问题做出对美国不利 的裁决（虽然这不太可能），那就意味着其他国家可以用针对我们的反美关税来要挟我们的国家。这将意味着 美利坚合众国的经济崩溃！" 此前5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗 普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。美国联邦巡回上诉法院5月29日批准特朗普政府的请 求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 有外媒指出 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

今日周六（5月31日）因国际端午节休市。黄金期货目前交投于768.60元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂 报771.80元/克，上涨0.98%，最高触及776.16元/克，最低下探768.60元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏 向看涨走势。 债券市场上，2年期美债收益率微调0.2个基点，报3.937%；10年期美债收益率几乎持平，微降0.4个基 点至4.416%；而30年期美债收益率则小幅上扬0.6个基点，达到4.929%，反映出市场对长期经济前景的 复杂情绪与预期。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 黄金期货今日上方阻力位为786.74-790.00，下方支撑位为760.00-780.00。 【要闻速递】 最新数据揭示，美联储密切关注的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）在当月仅温和上升0.1%，年度通胀率 则定格于2.1%，与道琼斯此前的预测相吻合，但较预估年通胀率低了0.1个百分点。尤为值得注意的 是，剔除食品和能源波动后的核心PCE物价指数，其月增长率和年增长率分别稳定在0.1%和2.5%，略低 于市场先前预期的0.1%和2.6%，显示出通胀压力的进一步缓和。 然而，经济学家们对于关税可能触发的新一轮通胀风险表示忧虑，尽管 ...

"允许关税继续存在会增加滞胀风险，对美元和股市都是负面的。" 与此同时，特朗普告诉美联储主席鲍威尔，他认为美联储主席不降息是错误的。而达拉斯联储主席Logan则暗示，官员们调整利率可能还需要一 段时间。 【15:33】 30日周五，在关税不确定性笼罩下，美元小幅走高，缓解了连续第五个月的跌势。欧股主要股指开盘涨跌不一，10 年期美国国债收益率企稳。现 货黄金小幅下跌。 特朗普关税议程正面法律挑战。据新华社29日报道，美国上诉法院恢复实施关税政策，给特朗普政府带来喘息空间。白宫官员表示，他们计划启 动一项前所未有的两步走策略，即"B计划"，确保其关税政策在任何法律障碍下都能继续推行。市场担忧"滞胀、关税"卷土重来，市场风险偏好降 温。 "无论发生什么，市场都意识到我们正面临一段长期的不确定性，"Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.全球市场策略主管Win Thin表示： 美元现货指数小幅走高0.21%，现至99.54点。 欧股开盘涨跌不一，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘下跌0.02%，德股开盘小幅上涨0.1%，英股开盘上涨0.24%，法股开盘下跌0.07%。 | ■ 德国DAX30 | 24.029 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rebounding, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but still facing resistance from a downward trend line [1][3][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3287.32 per ounce, dropped to a low of $3245.36, then rose to a high of $3330.38, closing at $3317.46, with a daily range of $85.02 and a gain of $30.14, or 0.92% [1]. - The market anticipates that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the recent recovery pattern [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - Technical pressures and a U.S. court ruling against President Trump's tariffs initially pressured gold prices, but support from buying interest and concerns over stagflation and recession risks led to a rebound [3][7]. - The dollar index showed weakness, which typically supports gold prices, while U.S. Treasury yields had limited impact on gold [5][7]. Economic Indicators Summary - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment, with a general outlook leaning towards initial bullishness followed by potential bearishness [5][12]. Technical Analysis Summary - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are in a volatile adjustment phase, maintaining above the May moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend if historical highs are not breached [10][12]. - Weekly charts show a rebound above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and potential for further gains towards $3500 [12]. - Daily charts reveal a bullish triangle pattern, suggesting that any further declines could be seen as buying opportunities [14].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）5月6日至7日的会议 纪要。这是美国所谓"对等关税"政策宣布实施一个半月后，美联储的第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式 反映了美联储官员对形势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强化了会 议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 面对这一特殊困境，美联储的最佳应对策略只能是保持谨慎，等待观望。"与会者一致认为，鉴于经济 增长和劳动力市场依然稳健且当前货币政策的限制性适度，（FOMC）委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经 济前景更加明朗。在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的。"这是 对此前美联储及鲍威尔多次强调"不急于降息""等待成本较低""处于有利态势"等观点和态度的延续和强 化，说明尽管美国通胀和失业均有上升风险，但目前美联储更侧重于通胀方面，不降息本身就是控通胀 优先。 2022年至2023年加息期间，美联储是不惜付出衰退代价也要首先把通胀降下来的，那时及此后美联储也 多次强调价格稳定是实现长期可持续就业最大化的根本和前提。5月美联储会议 ...

关税政策已在美国国内引发广泛反弹。企业层面，12 个州联合起诉特朗普政府，指控其关税政策 "颠覆宪法秩序"。纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅・詹姆斯直 言："总统没有权力随心所欲地提高税收"。美国消费者技术协会警告，若关税持续，2025 年该行业购买力将下降 900 亿至 1430 亿美元，笔记本电脑、智能 手机等产品销量可能暴跌 37%-68%。汽车行业首当其冲：斯泰兰蒂斯集团因关税成本暂停北美工厂生产，解雇 900 名工人。 民生层面，关税直接推高物价。耶鲁大学预算实验室研究显示，特朗普的关税政策使 2025 年美国通胀率上升 2.3%，每个家庭年均损失 3800 美元，皮革、 外套等商品价格涨幅超 15%。密歇根大学消费者信心指数从年初的 64.7 暴跌至 5 月的 50.8，创 2020 年以来新低，显示民众对经济前景的悲观情绪加剧。沃 尔玛首席执行官道格・麦克米利恩指出，消费者已出现 "月底前钱花光" 的现象，被迫转向廉价品牌。 政治层面，国会内部裂痕扩大。共和党参议员查克・格拉斯利联合民主党提出《2025 贸易审查法案》，要求总统加征关税需国会批准，并在 60 天后自动失 效。尽管特朗普威胁否决该法案，但已 ...

美联储古尔斯比：这是一个通往滞胀的方向，但还不算滞胀。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：对央行来说，滞胀是最棘手的情况；但这不是我们现在面临的。 ...