Core Insights - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) and First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) are prominent players in the silver mining sector, both headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and providing exposure to silver and gold [1] Silver Market Overview - Silver prices have increased by 75.9% year over year, while gold prices rose by 56.9%, driven by strong safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts [2] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in solar energy and electronics, now constitutes over half of global silver demand [2] - Current silver trading price is near a record high at $53.70, with expectations of a rate cut supporting further price increases [2] Pan American Silver (PAAS) Highlights - PAAS operates 12 mines across the Americas and has a significant stake in the Juanicipio project, expected to produce 14.7-16.7 million ounces of silver in 2025 [4][5] - Third-quarter silver production for PAAS was 5.5 million ounces, maintaining the same level as the previous year, with an increased production outlook for 2025 to 22-25 million ounces [6] - Gold production in the third quarter was 183.5 thousand ounces, down from 225 thousand ounces year-over-year, with a maintained guidance of 735-800 thousand ounces for 2025 [7] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for silver were $15.43 per ounce, significantly lower than $20.90 in the previous year [8] - PAAS reported a record free cash flow of $252 million in the third quarter, raising its cash and short-term investments to $910.8 million [9] - The company increased its quarterly dividend by 17% to 14 cents, up from 12 cents [10] First Majestic Silver (AG) Highlights - AG focuses on silver and gold production primarily in Mexico and the U.S., operating four underground mines and holding various development assets [13] - The acquisition of Gatos Silver in January 2025 solidified AG's position as a primary silver producer, contributing significantly to its production numbers [14][15] - AG's total production reached 7.7 million silver-equivalent ounces in the third quarter, a 39% year-over-year increase, with record silver production of 3.9 million ounces [15][16] - Free cash flow for AG increased by 67.5% year-over-year to $98.8 million, with liquidity reaching $682 million [17] Earnings Estimates Comparison - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS's 2025 earnings is $2.15 per share, indicating a 172% year-over-year growth [18] - For AG, the 2025 earnings estimate is 25 cents per share, improving from a loss of 14 cents in 2024 [20] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, PAAS stock has surged by 99.2%, while AG has gained 120.6% [21] - PAAS is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.38X, while AG is at 5.71X, both higher than their five-year medians [22] Investment Outlook - Both PAAS and AG are positioned to benefit from rising silver and gold prices, increased production expectations, and expansion efforts through acquisitions [24]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot silver price surged over 3% during the U.S. trading session, breaking the historical threshold of $55 per ounce, reaching a peak of approximately $55.25 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 90% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The silver price's significant rise is attributed to various factors, including the accumulation of driving forces throughout the year [1] - The current price level reflects a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. deficit is out of control, contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [1] - Inflation remains around 3%, while calls for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are increasing, further influencing the silver market [1]

金价的隐形守护者美联储的货币政策信号一直是黄金市场的风向标。周四，美国市场因感恩节休市，交易波动加剧，但投资者对12月降息的押注并未消退。 市场对下月降息的概率已超过85%，这与美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示降息并非板上钉钉的表态形成鲜明对比。 周五（11月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4179美元/盎司附近，犹如一艘稳健的航船，守在近两周的高位。尽管周四小幅回落至4157.22 美元/盎司，跌幅仅约0.16%，但距离前一日创下的4173美元两周高点仅一步之遥。投资者们正密切关注美国12月降息的可能性，而这一预期已成为支撑金价 的关键力量。 自10月20日触及历史高点4381.21美元以来，金价虽累计下跌5%，但始终维持在4000美元以上的关键水平之上，显示出强劲的韧性。这次回调尚未完全结 束，但黄金市场的基本面因素并未改变，包括美国经济增长放缓引发的利率下降、美元走软、持续的避险需求以及央行强劲的买盘。这些元素交织成网，为 金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。 在感恩节假期市场流动性偏弱的背景下，金价的窄幅震荡反映了投资者在评估美联储信号时的谨慎态度，而哈西特作为潜在美联储主席继任者的呼声，更是 增添了降息 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline after reaching a near two-week high, as investors assess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with market bets on rate cuts increasing significantly [1][6]. Market Performance - Spot gold fell by 0.1%, trading around $4158 [2]. - Since hitting a record high of $4381.21 on October 20, gold has retreated approximately 5% but remains above the critical $4000 level [4]. Analyst Insights - Carsten Menke from Julius Baer expects the consolidation in gold prices to continue, as the effects of the previous correction have not been fully digested [4]. - Factors supporting gold prices include a slowing U.S. economy leading to lower interest rates, a weak dollar, ongoing safe-haven demand, and strong central bank purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve has sent mixed signals regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts, increasing demand for hedging in overnight interest rate-related options and derivatives [4]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 85%, up from 30% a week prior, according to CME FedWatch data [6]. Future Price Predictions - Bank of America projects a target price of $5000 per ounce for gold, indicating a potential increase of 19% from current levels, driven by persistent fundamental forces [8]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of next year, reflecting a 17% increase [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts gold could reach $4950 per ounce by 2026, suggesting an 18% upside potential [13]. - HSBC offers a more moderate outlook, predicting gold prices will fluctuate between $3600 and $4400 per ounce by 2026, with the upper limit indicating a 5% increase [15]. Demand Drivers - Central bank purchases are expected to remain strong, particularly as countries seek to diversify reserves in light of geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The anticipated global rate cuts are expected to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [11].

Core Viewpoint - Weak economic data from the United States and increased expectations for interest rate cuts are driving up precious metal prices, with heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in European energy markets [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are maintained above $4,000, influenced by a weaker dollar and market expectations regarding the "Hassett Federal Reserve" policy framework [1] - Silver has shown stronger performance compared to gold [1] - If interest rates are cut in December and Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, gold and silver prices are expected to rise further [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the medium to long term, the central tendency of gold prices is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：国泰基金微幸福） 进入 2025 年四季度，黄金市场告别了 8-10 月急速上行、屡创新高的强势行情，在多空力量博弈加剧、 市场分歧持续扩大的背景下，价格波动幅度显著加大，整体围绕 4000 美元 / 盎司关口呈现区间震荡态 势。 从本周表现来看，金价在震荡格局中迎来小幅抬升，伦敦金现盘中价格一度触及4173美元/盎司，创近 两周新高，今日虽有小幅回落但整体仍维持在高位区间运行，短期震荡上行的格局未发生根本改变。 近期黄金为什么涨？ 近期金价上涨是美联储降息预期升温、流动性改善与地缘政治风险抬头多重因素共振的结果。 目前市场正在加大对美联储12月议息会议进一步降息的押注。根据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 储12月降息25个基点的概率已由一周前的32%上升至85%。 降息预期的抬升一是受联储相关官员表态的影响。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五表态称，在劳动力市场 疲软的背景下，他预见"近期"存在降息空间；美联储理事米兰也表示，当前就业形势要求大幅降息。 另外，美联储周三公布的经济景气状况褐皮书报告显示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，但整体消费者 支出进一步下滑；就业方面，约半数地区劳动力需 ...

【华通白银网11月27日讯】•美国国债收益率仍面临压力，周三白银价格大幅上涨至52.45美元。 •对美联储将更加温和的预期提振了投资者对无息资产的兴趣。 •美国政治和经济的不确定性支撑了避险需求。 本周三，白银强势走高，截至撰写本文时，银价约为52.45美元，当日上涨2.00%。在美联储日益宽松的前景下，美国国债收益率持续下 降，投资者转向无息资产，支撑了黄金的看涨势头。 随着美联储预期变得更加温和，美国利率持续下行的压力仍决定着市场状况。纽约联储John Williams最近强调有必要进一步调整货币政 策的言论，强化了美联储最早在12月会议上降息的预期。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，市场目前认为降息25个基点的可能性非常高，这强化了美联储正朝着更宽松立场迈进的观 点，这历来支撑白银。 白宫经济顾问凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）成为接替鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）担任美联储主席的主要候选人，加剧了这种鸽派看法。投 资者认为，特朗普政府任命的美联储领导人可能倾向于加快货币宽松周期，尤其是在经济势头放缓的情况下。 本交易日重点关注： 白银网 白银还受益于国际不确定性和美国经济信号走软 ...

整体看金价未来仍有上涨动力，黄金企业业绩有望受益于金价上涨。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 11月27日 ，金价及A股三大指数盘中回落，有色黄金相关ETF产品盘中走弱，截至13:52，有色金属ETF 基金(516650)涨幅收窄至0.73%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨0.53%，黄金ETF华夏(518850)盘中转跌0.19%。 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近9个交易日有8个交易日获资金布局，合计"吸金"3.57亿元。 渤海证券分析指出，短期看美国经济数据表现不会给美联储后续降息带来太大阻力，26 年美联储新主 席或受政治因素影响而超预期降息，或进一步利好金价。全球ETF 需求快速增长并且仍有增长潜力， 饰品需求受抑制但影响不大，工业需求保持平稳，央行长期购金空间仍足，黄金需求仍有支撑。从避险 和抗通胀方面看，短期看全球区域冲突事件频发激发避险需求，长期看美国债务风险居高不下将削弱美 元和美债吸引力，从而助推黄金作为避险和抗通胀资产的吸引力。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].