Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, indicating a deepening of trade protectionism [3] - This policy aims to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries while posing new challenges to global supply chains and related sectors, affecting a wide range of industries from wind turbines to automotive parts [3] - The tariff policy may serve as a catalyst for adjusting trade relations, prompting countries to reassess their positions within global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise inflation expectations, exacerbate trade tensions, and increase economic uncertainty, which overall benefits silver prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising safe-haven demand and heightened inflation expectations are likely to drive silver prices higher [3] - In the silver market, key resistance levels are identified in the 8.651-8.800 range, while support levels are noted in the 8.400-8.573 range [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) reaching an intraday increase of 1.87% and currently up by 1.15% [1] - The ETF saw a net subscription of 600,000 units, with a total net inflow of 11.29 million yuan over the past three days [1] - Key stocks such as Innovation New Materials, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Yunnan Zhenye hit the daily limit, while Huayu Mining rose over 8% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, effective immediately [3] - This expansion of tariffs is expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets, with gold projected to rise in value [3] - The small metal sector, particularly tungsten, is experiencing price increases due to tightening supply and strong emerging demand [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the non-ferrous metal sector will benefit from monetary easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic production optimization efforts [4] - The industrial metal sector is currently undervalued, indicating potential for upward correction [4] - The supply-demand balance for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is tightening, driven by limited supply and strong demand from emerging industries [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [5] - This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]

一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.13%，沪银主力收跌0.25%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，美国7月零售销售强劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。美国7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，创三年来最大 环比涨幅，涨幅远大于经济学家的预期。美国7月CPI通胀温和，CPI符合预期但核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于前值2.9%。目前市场 预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率 遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长 期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月19日16时55分 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理 ...

来源：白银网 （华通国标一号银日K线图） 从技术角度看，白银在38.50-39.00美元区域形成的看跌双顶形态的颈部上方徘徊。该形态显示白银多次尝试关键阻力 位未果，表明上行势头正在失去动力。如果银价决定性地跌破水平支撑位37.50美元，则可能会为进一步回调至36.50美 元甚至35.50美元打开大门。4小时图上的21和50均线在当前价格水平附近汇聚，进一步表明盘整和方向性减弱。 相对强弱指标（RSI）在中性的50点附近徘徊，没有提供强烈的方向性信号，而MACD平缓，MACD和信号线显示出 在零线附近收敛的早期迹象。这种情况强化了白银目前处于盘整阶段的观点，多头和空头都没有果断地掌控局面。 （国际现货银小时图） 白银网 •对俄乌和平协议的希望避险需求改善•美国数据保持了围绕美联储政策前景的鸽派基调，支撑了银价 周二（8月19日），白银价格连续第四个交易日保持低迷，周二亚洲时段交易价格持续交投在38.00美元附近。越来越 多的人认为，美联储将在9月份重启降息周期，这是为贵金属提供一些支撑。除此之外，谨慎的市场情绪促使一些避险 资金流向大宗商品。 与此同时，由于美国央行采取更激进的宽松政策的可能性越来越小，美元（ ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant fluctuation in gold prices, with a notable increase to approximately $3357 per ounce after a drop to $3323.50 earlier in the day, driven by geopolitical risks [1][2] - Last week, international gold prices experienced a cumulative decline of 3.11%, marking the largest weekly drop since March of this year [1] - The focus of investors has shifted towards the U.S.-Ukraine talks, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - FXStreet's senior analyst Mehta indicates that the next bullish target for gold prices is at last week's high of $3375 per ounce, followed by a target of $3400 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant decline due to reduced safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold futures dropping to a low of $3368 before closing at $3378 per ounce, a decrease of 0.14% [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) saw a 0.17% increase, marking four consecutive days of net inflows totaling 87.25 million, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.83% [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" is anticipated to be crucial, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech expected to influence market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - A meeting between former President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky took place, followed by discussions with European leaders, indicating geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [1] - The market is currently experiencing heightened expectations for monetary easing, making Powell's upcoming remarks particularly significant for gold price movements [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and fluctuating trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.32% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.54%. The short - term core logic is that the phased achievement of trade agreements and the start of Russia - Ukraine talks have led to a decline in safe - haven demand, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has rebounded. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and fluctuating in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Gold main contract closed up 0.32%, and relevant international and domestic gold prices showed different changes. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3381.70 per ounce, down 0.02% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; the Shanghai Gold main contract (SHFE) closed at 777.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24% from the previous day and down 0.23% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements and Russia - Ukraine talks have reduced safe - haven demand. The US economy faces stagflation risks, with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. In terms of safe - haven attributes, meetings between US and Russian leaders and tariff truces have affected the market. In terms of monetary attributes, strong US retail sales and rising wholesale prices in July have added uncertainties to the Fed's rate - cut roadmap. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. In terms of commodity attributes, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. Silver - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Silver main contract closed up 0.54%. The Comex silver main contract closed at $38.02 per ounce, down 0.04% from the previous day and 1.27% from last week; the Shanghai Silver main contract (SHFE) closed at 9258 yuan per kilogram, up 0.59% from the previous day and 0.52% from last week [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There has been a slight reduction in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in visible silver inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to the gold strategy, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $66946.22 billion. M2 growth rate is 4.54% year - on - year [8]. - **Interest Rate and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, the US dollar index is 97.85, the US Treasury spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.55, and other spreads and yield curves also show different changes [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.20% month - on - month, core CPI is 3.10% year - on - year, and other inflation - related indicators such as PCE price index also have corresponding values [10]. - **Economic Growth and Employment Data**: GDP growth rate is 1.90% annualized year - on - year and 3.00% annualized quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate is 4.20%, and other employment - related data such as non - farm payrolls and labor participation rate also show changes [10]. - **Other Data**: There are data on the US real estate market, consumption, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate ranges for different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's future interest rate adjustments [12].

日线图上，黄金从两周低点触底反弹，短线波动偏强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关注上周周二、周四以及周五，多次回 落低点附近3330美元，其次关注日内低点3323美元，这是周线布林带中轨附近；黄金上方压力，可以关注上周四金价 遇阻下跌，刷新日低后的反弹高点3358美元，也是目前日内金价高点，以及周线MA5均线位置，金价向上试探中，成 功突破可以关注上金价止跌反弹高点3374美元。5日均线死叉上拐，MACD与KDJ指标死叉上拐，RSI指标开始形成金 叉，短期技术面显示黄金止跌震荡整理后，存在反弹需求。黄金日内参考：尽管美联储9月降息50个基点的预期降 温，但依旧大概率可能降息25个基点，对美联储降息的押注，以及特朗普关税措施提振避险需求，依旧对黄金价格形 成支撑。操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注3330和3323美元，上方压力关注3358美元附近的突破情况，继续上 涨可以关注3374美元。 来源：黄力晨 上周五我们认为，美国PPI数据表现远超预期，市场基本打消了对美联储9月大幅降息50个基点的预期，这对黄金造成 压制，不过由于美联储9月份仍大概率降息25个基点，限制了金价的进一步回落，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment shows that gold has benefited from loose monetary policies, but the potential easing of geopolitical tensions is suppressing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war, which has generated optimism in the market regarding a potential de-escalation of conflict [2] - The extension of the tariff truce between China and the U.S. for 90 days has alleviated tensions from global trade disputes, leading investors to reduce their safe-haven allocations in gold and favor riskier assets [2] Group 2 - The Atlanta Fed President stated that the U.S. economy is close to full employment, providing the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy adjustments [3] - Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - Recent gold price movements showed a volatile upward trend, with potential for further increases if support levels are maintained [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's volatility is rising, while its medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3,120 - $3,500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market in gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of US economic growth and inflation on Fed policy. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 贵金属行情及展望 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Due to Trump's threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell and US July CPI being lower than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation cooled, pushing the US dollar index down to around 98 and London gold rebounding above $3,350 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market made silver with higher industrial attributes relatively stronger. The US government's downplaying of the Russia - US summit reduced the pressure on the precious metal market from the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump's new policies boosted gold's safe - haven demand. London gold may trade in a wide range and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, Fed new governor nomination, and deteriorating US job market increased the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, silver prices fluctuated greatly due to anti - involution policy expectations. The London gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. It is judged that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by Trump's reforms and interest rate cut expectations. However, high prices also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue trading in a range. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 贵金属市场相关图表 - The report provides six charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3 主要宏观事件/数据 - The US Treasury Secretary said that US trade officials will meet with Chinese officials in the next two to three months. There are still several major trade agreements to be completed, but India is being difficult in negotiations. If a lower - court case goes to the Supreme Court, it will be difficult for the court to rule against the Trump administration [8]. - US July inflation was moderate, increasing investors' bets on a September Fed interest rate cut. July CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year (lower than expected). Core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month (the largest increase since January) and 3.1% year - on - year (higher than June) [8]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the limited impact of tariffs on inflation should be seen as a sign of proper monetary policy calibration, not an opportunity for interest rate cuts. Trump is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell for mismanagement of the Fed's renovation project [9]. - The White House downplayed expectations of a quick Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement from the Trump - Putin summit. European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice - President Vance will participate in a high - level video conference. Putin informed North Korean leader Kim Jong - un about the upcoming meeting with Trump [9].