1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market has likely fully priced in policy expectations. In May 2025, both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were fully implemented, and with a 90 - day exemption for Sino - US tariff issues, Q2 economic data may be good. There is little possibility of the market trading monetary policy easing in the short term. Fiscal policy is adopting a "debt resolution + development" dual - wheel drive strategy, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will likely continue. For real estate policies, although comprehensive stimulus measures have been introduced, the key lies in the substantial recovery of consumer demand, and the policy transmission efficiency may be in the stage from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" [5][38]. - In 2025, an abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. Since 2025, the monetary policy's statement on liquidity has changed from "maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity" to "maintaining abundant liquidity". After correcting the bond market's over - reaction in Q1, the money market was relatively loose in Q2. The central bank ensured market liquidity through various measures during special periods. With the downward trend of bank - based fund lending last week, the central bank may use outright reverse repurchases to ease market liquidity next week [5][39]. - The supply shock in Q3 may be relatively controllable. The net financing rhythm of national debt in 2025 is faster than the same period. As of July 11, its net financing accounted for 56.66% of the whole year. Local debt supply may impact the market, and the new special bond issuance scale in Q3 may be large. However, due to the market's increased adaptability to supply shocks and the alleviation of the pumping effect by accelerated fiscal expenditures, fiscal supply may not be the core factor causing the bond market to weaken [5][40]. - In 2025, external interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has marginally weakened. Although the external environment is more complex, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the domestic market's pricing may become dull, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better than previous years [7][43]. - The traditional factors causing the "seasonal weakness" of the bond market in Q3 may have limited impact on the Q3 2025 bond market. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. With institutions like state - owned banks and rural commercial banks supporting the market and the possible decline of insurance companies'预定利率 in Q3, the bond market may show a trend of "easy to fall, hard to rise". But the downward space of long - term interest rates may need more factors to catalyze. The investment portfolio of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered for allocation, and the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds can be selected for trading [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Seasonal Weakness" of the Bond Market in Q3 - From 2021 - 2024, the bond market in Q3 showed intensified fluctuations. From 2021 - 2023, it presented a typical "V - shaped" trend, while in 2024, it had multiple staged rebounds in a downward trend [2][11]. - In 2021, the bond market in Q3 had a "first down, then up" pattern, affected by "RRR cut driving interest rates down → economic data and policy expectation correction → supply pressure disturbance" [2][12]. - In 2022, the core logic of the bond market's weakness in Q3 was "economic expectation improvement + marginal tightening of the money market + Fed's interest rate hikes" [2][19]. - In 2023, the bond market in Q3 was mainly affected by "exchange rate pressure + neutral liquidity + stabilization of the fundamentals", leading to increased volatility [2][29]. - In 2024, the core driving factor for the multiple staged rebounds of the bond market in Q3 was "policy expectation changes" [2][33]. 3.2 Traditional Factors May Have Limited Impact on Q3 2025 Bond Market - Market has fully priced in policy expectations. Monetary policy easing is unlikely to be traded in the short term. Fiscal and real estate policies are in a stage of effectiveness accumulation [5][38]. - An abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. The central bank will ensure market liquidity through various measures, and may use outright reverse repurchases next week [5][39]. - Supply shock in Q3 may be controllable. National debt net financing rhythm is faster, and local debt supply may impact the market, but overall, fiscal supply may not be the core factor for the bond market's weakness [5][40]. - External interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has weakened. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better [7][43]. 3.3 Important Matters - In June 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase year - on - year, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. PPI continued to decline year - on - year [44]. - The Ministry of Finance extended the assessment cycle of state - owned commercial insurance companies' performance indicators, adjusting the "net asset yield" assessment method [45]. 3.4 Money Market - Last week, the central bank's net open - market reverse repurchase operation was - 226.5 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature next week. The money market was relatively loose, with DR001 below the policy rate [46][47]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale last week. Except for rural commercial banks, other commercial banks were net lenders. The term spread between 1Y and 3M NCD issuance rates widened, and the 1Y state - owned bank NCD issuance rate reached around 1.6% [46][59]. 3.5 Bond Market - At the beginning of July, the issuance and net financing of national debt were stable, while local debt net financing was slow. New 20 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds will be issued next week [67]. - Last week, the bond market was in an adjustment stage under the stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bank bonds changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year national development bank bonds increased slightly [78]. - The liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active and sub - active bonds returned to 2 - 3BP. The term spread of 10 - 1 year treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spreads narrowed [81][85][88]. 3.6 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased but remained at around 8 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks and rural commercial banks increased their positions, while securities firms and funds reduced their positions [92][101]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was basically flat month - on - month and slightly increased year - on - year [92].

Group 1 - Japanese government bond futures have declined in the short term [1] - The Japanese yen has appreciated against the US dollar [1] - Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is considering raising its inflation expectations [1]

智通财经7月14日电，日元兑美元走高，据称日本央行将考虑上调通胀预期。 ...

市场消息：日本央行料将考虑上调通胀预期。 ...

日本央行料将考虑上调通胀预期。（彭博） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 白银 1、基本面：市场猜测特朗普计划制裁俄罗斯原油，银价大涨，沪银再度刷新历史 最高；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指全线下跌；美债收益率全线上涨，10 年期美债收益率涨6.15个基点报4.409%；美元指数涨0.10%报97.59，离岸人民币对 美元小幅升值报7.1783；COMEX白银期货涨4.74%报39.08美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：白银期货9040，现货9011，基差-29，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：沪银期货仓单1303593千克，日环比增加6435千克；中性 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：市场猜测特朗普计划制裁俄 ...

股指周报：美国关税豁免期延长，国内宏观预期强劲 正信期货股指期货周报 20250714 理性投资，风险自担 研究员：蒲祖林 投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 2 行情回顾 资金流向 14 其它分析 3 宏观基本面 目 录 行情回顾 核心观点 宏观：美国对各国关税豁免到期后延长至8月1日，关注美国与各国谈判进展，尤其是欧盟和日本、印度等国的结果， 关税政策对市场的冲击仍有不确定性风险，参考2018年的路径，需谨防特朗普极限施压的情绪冲击。国内经济各领域 步入季节性回升转折窗口，在7月底关于经济工作的政治局会议召开前市场宏观政策预期强劲。 中观：地产销售低位季节性回落，总体旺季不旺淡季更淡，引发市场对房地产政策的预期，服务业结构分化且暑期高温 下有所滑坡，制造业抢出口近入尾声，三季度或有脉冲回落压力；6月PPI大幅恶化，国内反内卷式政策出台，供给缩减 有望扭转商品供需平衡，物价有望震荡回升，关注本周货币金融和二季度GDP及消费和投资数据。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，边际有所收紧，海外流动性在美国经济数据韧性下边际收紧，金融条件反复波动，美元指 数有望超跌反弹，国内股市将获得南 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 美国关税预期上升，利好金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美对铜的关税临近落地，非美地 区铜价承压，关注前期中枢支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：上周海外金价跌破 33 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 764. 0 | 0. 5 | 0. 07% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 661.862 | 1.947 | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 昨日价格(元/吨) 845. 0 | 前日价格(元/吨) 841.0 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | PB (61.5%) | 752. 0 | 750. 0 | 4. 0 2. 0 | | | 进口矿 | | | | | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 715. 0 | 715. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 628. 0 | 630. 0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 郎 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 政策预期抬升带动风险偏好上扬 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（7 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、贸易谈判不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税方面，美国宣布将关税暂缓 期延长至 8 月 1 日，短期不确定性减弱，降低关税突然大幅上 调的风险，带动亚太股市情绪回暖。基本面方面，CPI 小幅 好于预期，核心的支撑点在于，食品价格降幅小于季节性、油 价、金价上涨带动、促消费政策刺激下国内需求持续释放带动。 PPI 显著低于预期，主要的拖累在于，中下游制造行业受到关 税不确定性、618 促销、部分行业产能利用率偏低等影响，价 ...