Group 1 - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by holiday consumption and rising industrial product prices [1] - The increase in service prices was notable, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and travel prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, influenced by strong demand during the holiday season [1] - Food prices also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, shrimp and crab, and beef prices rising between 0.5% and 4.3% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.2% in October, reversing a decline of 0.3% from the previous month, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2%, marking a continuous six-month expansion [2] - Service prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with significant rises in flight and hotel prices, driven by increased consumer spending on travel and cultural activities during the holidays [2] - Industrial product prices showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year rise of 2% (excluding energy), supported by effective consumption-boosting measures and improved market competition [2] Group 3 - The downward pressure from food and energy prices has lessened, with food and energy prices decreasing by 2.9% and 2.4% year-on-year respectively, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [3] - The overall market demand remains insufficient, leading to a low overall price level, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and improve supply-demand relationships [3] - Future measures will focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through the construction of a unified national market and optimizing the competitive environment [3]

One government body. This market is very focused on Jack, as they balance the market bias. I would say that based amongst economists, consensus, if you will.They expect you to see the September payrolls report very quickly. Then over the next few weeks or so, they expected to see the October payrolls report. And there was a question mark around CPI.Perhaps we'd never get it. Jack, the press secretary yesterday, October CPI and the jobs report will likely never be released. Jack, what do we know about that.T ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive signals released by the October CPI, with the core CPI year-on-year growth reaching the highest level since March 2024, indicating a continuous recovery in the service sector [1][2] - The October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the highest year-on-year growth since February 2025, driven mainly by food, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as transportation and communication [2] - The white liquor industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with expectations of a recovery in financial reports and inventory levels within the next 2-3 quarters, as the third-quarter reports show a significant decline in revenue and net profit [2][3] Group 2 - The valuation of white liquor stocks is relatively low, with a high dividend yield, making them likely beneficiaries of a market style switch as the year-end approaches [3] - As of November 10, 2025, the food and beverage sector has faced significant adjustment pressure, with the current PE TTM for the food and beverage sector and white liquor at 17% and 23% percentiles since 2005, respectively [3] - The combined dividend yield for white liquor A+H shares has reached 3.74%, compared to 2.54% for the CSI 300 and 2.21% for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a relative advantage in absolute returns [3]

Core Insights - The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to be delayed until early or mid-December according to economists' projections [1] Group 1 - Economists anticipate a delay in the release of the October CPI data [1]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In October, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][2] - The average CPI from January to October in Sichuan fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices increased by 5.7% and 2.2% month-on-month in October, primarily due to seasonal factors and the demand surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.2%, attributed to sufficient market supply and the timing of seasonal consumption [3] - Egg prices also fell by 1.3% month-on-month due to temporary oversupply and post-holiday demand drop [4] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest since February 2023 [4] - Service prices contributed to the core CPI increase, with notable rises in air ticket prices (10.8%), travel agency fees (7.3%), and accommodation costs (3.4%) [4] Group 4: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan fell by 2.5% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, reflecting a shift from previous increases [7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.5%, while electricity and heat production prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month [7] - Despite the overall decline, some industries, such as computer manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing, showed signs of price recovery [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the PPI is expected to continue operating at low levels, but the rate of decline may narrow due to improved market demand and ongoing policy support [8] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting certain industries, leading to a reduction in price declines in sectors like coal and metal processing [8]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the consumer sector is expected to experience a rotation and rebound, driven by a recovery in CPI and favorable profit-valuation ratios [2][4][9] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, the A-share market has shown an overall upward trend, with the Wind All A index rising by 27.02%. The technology sector has led this trend with a year-to-date increase of 39.12%, while the consumer sector has lagged with only a 10.85% increase [3][4] - As of November 11, 2025, the valuations of technology and cyclical sectors are at relatively high levels, with P/E ratios at 62.69% and 83.71% respectively since January 1, 2020 [4][9] Group 2: CPI and Consumer Sector - The report highlights a significant correlation between essential consumer goods performance and CPI trends. Since February 2025, CPI has shown a bottoming trend, with a notable recovery starting in July 2025, culminating in a 0.2% year-on-year increase in October 2025 [7][13] - Essential consumer goods typically exhibit stable demand, characterized by low unit prices and high consumption frequency, making price movements a key driver of market performance [7][9] Group 3: Profit-valuation Comparison - The consumer sector shows a clear advantage in terms of profit-valuation ratios, especially in sub-sectors such as medical services, airports, home appliances, personal care products, non-white liquor, and condiments, which have demonstrated high earnings growth while maintaining low historical valuations [9][11]

Market Expansion - FanDuel and CME Group are set to introduce a prediction market through the new FanDuel Predicts app [1] - The launch is scheduled for December and will be a separate mobile application [1] - Initially, the focus will be on sports markets, cryptocurrency, and economic indicators such as CPI and S&P 500 [1]

Core Insights - The October CPI data indicates a positive signal, with the core CPI year-on-year growth reaching the highest level since March 2024, suggesting a continuous recovery in the service sector [2][3] - The liquor industry is experiencing a bottoming phase, and it is expected to benefit from a market style shift as the year-end approaches [2][3] CPI Analysis - In October, China's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking the highest growth since February 2025, while the core CPI rose by 1.20% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024 [2] - The increase in CPI was primarily affected by declines in food, tobacco, and transportation sectors, which saw year-on-year decreases of 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [2] - Other goods and services saw a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8%, indicating strong service consumption [2] Liquor Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to see a turning point in financial reports and inventory levels within the next 2-3 quarters, with Q3 revenue down 18% year-on-year and net profit down 22% [3] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is relatively low, with the PE TTM for food and beverage at the 17th percentile and for liquor at the 23rd percentile since 2005 [3] - The dividend yield for liquor stocks has reached 3.74%, compared to 2.54% for the CSI 300 and 2.21% for the Shanghai Composite, indicating a favorable return profile [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Economics in Asia, specifically focusing on China - **Key Metrics**: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends Core Insights 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: - CPI inflation rose to 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October from -0.3% in September, exceeding expectations (Consensus: -0.1%; Nomura: 0.0%) [1][4] - PPI deflation improved to -2.1% y-o-y in October from -2.3% in September, aligning with market expectations (Consensus: -2.1%; Nomura: -2.3%) [1][9] 2. **Drivers of CPI Increase**: - The CPI increase was primarily driven by food prices due to lunar calendar effects and elevated gold prices contributing to core prices [1] - Sequential CPI inflation increased to 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in October from 0.1% in September [4] 3. **PPI Deflation Factors**: - The improvement in PPI was influenced by rising global prices of non-ferrous metals, such as copper, while factory gate prices for durable goods remained low [1] - Sequential PPI inflation recorded at 0.1% m-o-m in October, marking the first positive reading in a year [9] 4. **Future Expectations**: - CPI is expected to rise to 0.6% y-o-y in November, supported by favorable base effects and food price increases [3] - PPI deflation is anticipated to ease to -1.9% y-o-y in November due to improvements in domestic commodity prices and global oil prices [3] 5. **Food Price Dynamics**: - Food inflation moderated, with negative inflation for pork, vegetables, eggs, and fruit narrowing in October [5][6] - Gasoline prices fell by 5.5% y-o-y in October, contributing to a drag on headline CPI [6] 6. **Service Sector Performance**: - Strong travel demand during the extended Golden Week holiday led to significant price increases in hotel accommodation, airline tickets, and tourism services [7] Additional Considerations 1. **Economic Challenges**: - The ongoing anti-involution campaign may not sufficiently reflate the economy due to demand-side headwinds and lack of mega stimulus programs [2] - Local governments' excessive investment in manufacturing may not be effectively contained, potentially leading to overcapacity issues [2] 2. **Investment Outlook**: - The recent stock market boom may provide new funding opportunities for corporations in sectors facing overcapacity [2] 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - PPI inflation in upstream sectors remained unchanged, while processing manufacturing sector deflation worsened slightly [10] - Notable improvements in PPI readings attributed to better regulation of production capacity in certain industries [11] Conclusion - The economic indicators suggest a cautious optimism with improvements in CPI and PPI, but underlying challenges remain that could hinder sustainable growth. The focus on food prices and service sector performance will be critical in the coming months as the economy navigates these complexities.

每经AI快讯，11月12日，印度10月份CPI同比增长0.25%，预估为0.40%。 ...