国泰海通证券 712 秦和平 海外科技首席分析师 | 研究所 行业核心洞察 科技,无尽的前沿 价值主张 深度研究全球科技根目录公司 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。报告名称：模型与算力持续加速，AI产业强劲扩展；报告日 期：20250831；报告作者：秦和平S0880523110003；风险提示：地缘政治风险;AI技术发展未及预 期;消费复苏未及预期;行业竞争风险;政策监管风险。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 Property Hom 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 扫码关注 星标不迷路 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but the overall hawkish tone from Powell has dampened market risk appetite [3][12][13] - Economic data from August shows a significant slowdown, with domestic demand weakening and GDP growth for Q3 projected at around 4.9%, prompting expectations for policy support to stabilize the economy [4][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential new policies aimed at boosting consumption and the real estate sector, as the current economic environment necessitates additional support [4][15][21] Group 2 - The report highlights a strong focus on the AI industry as a key investment theme, alongside sectors with robust economic support such as rare earths, precious metals, military, and financial IT [5][7][27] - It identifies that in a rising industry rotation intensity, growth style is likely to continue its upward trend for at least one month after reaching a peak, while financial style may weaken and cyclical style may strengthen [5][27][28] - The analysis of past growth cycles indicates that after peaks in industry rotation intensity, strong growth sectors tend to maintain their leading positions, suggesting a favorable outlook for AI and related industries [5][27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts are beneficial for the healthy operation of the U.S. economy and enhance global macro liquidity [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Equity Market - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite marginal convergence, and the AI industry has vast development potential, supporting a positive outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive monetary policy adjustments help maintain a healthy economic trend and avoid inflation and employment risks, ensuring liquidity stability in the U.S. stock market [2] - The U.S. stock market is considered to have a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in the current phase [2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The internal inflation stickiness and the potential for a mild decline in real interest rates lead to a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global macro liquidity, which may help suppress internal inflation stickiness and real interest rates [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 3: Commodities - The improvement in global macro liquidity and the decline in real interest rates are expected to support gold performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the holding costs of gold, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 4: Currency Market - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] - The Chinese economy is showing stable growth, with strong growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend, with a central tendency of gradual appreciation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a "risk management" measure that aims to provide strong support for economic growth, with clearer future rate cut paths anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, leading to fluctuations in global asset prices, with gold and US stocks recovering after initial adjustments [1] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations have shown new progress, signaling positive developments in US-China relations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The market's trading direction is expected to become clearer, with a focus on the narrative surrounding the AI industry overseas [1] - In the domestic market, stable export conditions are anticipated to create a resonance between internal and external demand, supported by the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The pricing of Chinese assets is centered around the theme of "emerging from deflation," with the potential incremental benefits from the "14th Five-Year Plan" also warranting attention [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming a new focus for capital amid a global interest rate cut trend, with significant advantages such as offshore attributes, high foreign participation, and low valuations [3][10]. - In September, the Hang Seng Index rose by 5.85%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.98%, indicating a clear outperformance of the Hong Kong market [1]. - The influx of liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, making it an attractive destination for foreign capital seeking higher returns [3][9]. Group 2 - The AI industry is experiencing significant advancements, with Hong Kong's tech sector showing positive changes in fundamentals, including the use of self-developed chips by internet giants for AI training and the launch of new AI models [7][8]. - Notable financial performances from major companies in the tech sector include Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth of 26%, Tencent's profit increase of 16%, and Xiaomi's automotive business revenue soaring by 234% year-on-year [8][9]. - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded HKD 1.1 trillion this year, marking a record high since the establishment of the Stock Connect mechanism, further supporting the Hong Kong market [9]. Group 3 - The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index stands at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.24, significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq Technology Index at 36.66 and the STAR Market at 177.25, indicating a valuation advantage for global investors [11]. - International investment banks are raising their ratings for Hong Kong stocks, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an "overweight" rating and Morgan Stanley highlighting the concentration of trading in AI and semiconductor sectors in Hong Kong and A-shares [10][11]. - The article suggests that investors can utilize ETF tools to gain exposure to the Hong Kong tech sector, capitalizing on the benefits of global liquidity easing and the AI industry transformation [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional growth paradigm is being deconstructed and reshaped, necessitating the establishment of new growth logic in the current macroeconomic environment, industry structure, and market valuation system [3][17]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - The recent bull market has seen significant activity, with major indices rising and the ChiNext index reaching new highs, indicating a strong market sentiment [5]. - Public funds have experienced a notable return, with an average return of nearly 30% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [7]. - The improvement in liquidity and the fundamental performance of companies, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, have contributed to the current market optimism [9]. Group 2: Traditional Companies and Growth Strategies - Traditional companies like Yunnan Baiyao and Yonghui Supermarket are focusing on "guarding and attacking" to explore new growth spaces while maintaining their core competitive advantages [14]. - Yunnan Baiyao has reported strong performance in its core products, maintaining the top market share in several segments, while its new business, such as the Qixue Kang oral liquid, has seen a growth rate of 116% in the first half of the year [15]. - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a transformation to enhance product and service quality, with nearly 200 stores modified to improve customer experience and employee satisfaction [15]. Group 3: New Valuation Metrics and Growth Logic - New growth enterprises require new valuation anchors, where traditional business segments are valued using conventional methods, while new growth segments should be assessed based on penetration rates and market potential [16]. - A significant threshold for new business revenue is identified at 30%, beyond which separate valuation considerations are necessary [16]. - The emphasis on quality, efficiency, and certainty in growth strategies reflects a shift from merely pursuing speed and scale, highlighting the importance of a robust cash flow and strategic vision for long-term investment value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market rally has led to a surge in stock prices, but significant insider selling by major shareholders raises concerns about the underlying health of companies, particularly in the context of information asymmetry in capital markets [1] Group 1: Insider Selling - Zhimi Intelligent Holdings announced a reduction plan by its controlling shareholder and actual controller, Guo Xuhui, citing personal funding needs, with a plan to sell shares over three months starting from September 12, 2025 [2] - Guo Xuhui and Yuan Weiwei, as the actual controllers, hold a combined 176 million shares, representing 69.812% of the total share capital [2] - In August, the company also disclosed a reduction plan involving executives, with three executives holding a total of 188,800 shares, approximately 0.075% of the total share capital [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 million yuan, up 80.08% year-on-year [2] - Despite the apparent strong performance, there are underlying concerns as revenue growth has been declining over the past three quarters, with projected growth rates of 41.41%, 19.35%, and 12.31% for the next three quarters [3] Group 3: Inventory and Financial Discrepancies - The company's inventory increased by 60.22% compared to the beginning of the period, while revenue only grew by 15.29%, indicating a mismatch between inventory growth and revenue [4] - The sales gross margin rose from 19.07% to 24.4%, but the inventory turnover rate decreased from 1.66 times to 1.32 times, highlighting a discrepancy in financial metrics [4][5] Group 4: Business Segment Analysis - The intelligent computing business saw a revenue increase of 146.37% with a gross margin of 84.71%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5] - The company established a subsidiary, Tengyun Intelligent Computing, to provide AIGC high-performance infrastructure products, which is capital-intensive and has a long return cycle [6] Group 5: Prepayment Concerns - The company's prepayments surged by 1,572.29% to 510 million yuan, raising questions about potential funding risks associated with the intelligent computing business [6][7] - The rising asset-liability ratio, which increased from 37.18% to 58.43% over three reporting periods, indicates a growing financial risk [7]

Key Points on China's Integrated Circuit Industry Recent Breakthroughs - China's integrated circuit industry has made significant advancements in design, equipment, and materials over the past two years, with overall strength steadily improving [3]. - Tianyue Advanced has achieved major breakthroughs in large-size substrate materials, with core parameters optimized, supporting device applications [3]. - Domestic manufacturers have reached a competitive level with international counterparts, particularly in silicon carbide (SiC) substrates, with Tianyue Advanced supplying a significant portion of 8-inch SiC substrates to overseas markets [6][3]. Progress in Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution process in the integrated circuit field is advancing, although there are still high external dependencies in high-end equipment and core IP [5]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate has been increasing, with companies like Zhongwei focusing on etching, thin film, and measurement equipment to support domestic production [5][6]. - The localization rate for 8-inch silicon wafers is nearly complete, while the 12-inch silicon wafer localization rate is around 50% [6]. Global Competitive Landscape - China is a leading semiconductor consumer and producer, but many sectors are still dominated by foreign companies, leading to oligopolistic market conditions [7]. - Domestic manufacturers are gradually expanding their market share in mid-to-low-end products, while high-end applications remain largely controlled by international firms [7][9]. - The rapid iteration of technology and strong industry chain capabilities are seen as advantages for domestic companies [8]. Strategies for Internationalization - Companies like Huazhong Micro aim to deepen domestic market engagement while also expanding internationally to enhance their competitive edge [11]. - Zhongke Feicai is focused on providing domestic measurement equipment to global clients, emphasizing the importance of internationalization in their business strategy [11][12]. Challenges in Process Upgrades - Domestic suppliers face challenges in technology iteration and process upgrades, particularly in high-end components and talent acquisition [13]. - Companies are focusing on cultivating domestic suppliers and enhancing their technical capabilities to overcome these challenges [13]. Future Technology Trends - The industry is looking towards advancements in SiC substrates and 3D chip structures, with companies like Tianyue Advanced and Zhongwei leading in these areas [14][15]. - The growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for semiconductor equipment, driving technological upgrades and market expansion [15]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The integrated circuit industry is witnessing a trend of mergers and acquisitions, which are seen as essential for achieving scale and enhancing competitiveness [16][17]. - Companies are encouraged to pursue strategic mergers that create synergies and improve market positioning [17][18]. Development Strategies of Industry Leaders - Companies are setting ambitious goals, such as becoming top suppliers in their respective fields, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [19][20]. - Huazhong Micro plans to enhance its product offerings in emerging markets like humanoid robots and AI servers, while Tianyue Advanced aims to lead in SiC substrate production [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [8][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic semiconductor etching equipment sector and is expanding into other areas such as thin films and measurement. It aims to cover over 60% of the equipment market in key integrated circuit areas through self-research and acquisitions over the next five to ten years, opening up significant growth opportunities [8][11]. - The report anticipates that starting from the second half of 2025, more funding and policies will be directed towards advanced processes, including lithography machines and EDA tools, due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions. This presents a structural opportunity for the Chinese semiconductor industry [8][11]. - The company's stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 35 times for 2027, justifying the "Buy" rating [8]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.96 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. The etching equipment revenue was 3.78 billion RMB, up 40.1%, while LPCVD equipment revenue surged to 200 million RMB, reflecting a 608% increase [11]. - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 706 million RMB, a 36.6% increase year-on-year. The company expects net profits of 2.12 billion RMB, 3.09 billion RMB, and 4.03 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 46%, and 30% [10][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.42 RMB, 4.97 RMB, and 6.48 RMB, respectively [10]. Market Position and Shareholder Information - The company has a market capitalization of 142.26 billion RMB, with a share price of 227.20 RMB as of September 17, 2025. The stock has seen a significant increase of 83.4% over the past year [2][3]. - Major shareholders include Shanghai Venture Capital Co., Ltd., holding 14.93% of the shares [2]. Product Composition - The company's product mix consists of 79% sales of dedicated equipment, 19% sales of spare parts, and 1% from equipment maintenance [3]. Institutional Ownership - Institutional investors hold 22.4% of the circulating A-shares, while general corporations hold 31.6% [4].

博时基金热点解析 美联储如期降息25bp ❗️ 基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保 证基金一定盈利，也不保证收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 市场方面，由于降息未超预期，美债利率和美元反弹，黄金下跌，美股先跌后涨收平。 对此，博时基金认为： 本次降息为预防式降息，从历史来看，美国制造业在降息开启后1年从底部回暖，预期降息或将带来 2026年美国的增长与通胀边际上行。 回顾历史，历次降息后1个月、3个月和6个月内，A股、港股表现可能较好，本次降息叠加中国AI产业 竞争力提升，看好中国资产后续行情。 数据来源：Wind、美联储，截至2025年9月18日。 ☀️热点☀️ 美联储9月FOMC会议重启降息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下降25bp至4~4.25%，符合市场预期。同 时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储备金利率25个基点至4%，并决定维持当前资 产负债表缩减步伐。美联储点阵图预期今年或还将降息2次（共50bp）。 决议中，美联储认为"就业增长放缓"、"判断就业形势的下行风险已经上升"、 ...