巴克莱：预计，人工智能将重塑全球供应链和劳动力市场。 ...

新华财经北京4月30日电（崔凯）在经济不确定性增大的背景下，美国企业对劳动力的需求正在减弱。 据ADP Research Institute周三发布的数据显示，有"小非农"之称的ADP就业人数在4月份仅增加了6.2万 人，这是过去九个月以来的最低增长速度，远低于市场预期的11.5万人，也较前一个月的15.5万人有所 下降。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson指出："不安是今天的关键词。"她解释说，雇主们正努力在政策和消 费者不确定性与一系列总体积极的经济数据之间寻求平衡，这种环境下做出招聘决策变得尤为困难。 尽管ADP的数据揭示了招聘活动的放缓，但最近公布的申请失业救济金的人数仍接近新冠疫情前的水 平，这表明当前裁员情况仍然较为温和。 分析认为，劳动力市场呈现出一种"喜忧参半"的局面：一方面，新增就业岗位的增长速度减慢；另一方 面，失业率保持相对稳定，显示出劳动力市场的韧性。 市场正密切关注即将于周五发布的美国4月非农就业数据报告。部分经济学家警告称，由于特朗普政府 掀起的关税战役，美国劳动力市场可能出现剧烈波动，这将显著增加金融市场对美联储在6月份首次降 息的预期。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和美 ...

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for April indicates a significant slowdown in job growth, with an increase of only 62,000 jobs, the slowest pace in nearly nine months, falling short of the expected 115,000 jobs and down from the previous month's 155,000 jobs [2][3] Employment Changes by Sector - Job growth in the goods-producing sector was 26,000, while the service-providing sector added 34,000 jobs [4] - Notable declines were observed in education and health services (-23,000), information (-8,000), and professional/business services (-2,000) [4] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 27,000 jobs [4] Regional Employment Changes - The Midwest region experienced the highest job growth with 42,000 jobs added, while the South saw a minimal increase of 3,000 jobs [4] - The New England area reported a loss of 33,000 jobs, contrasting with the Middle Atlantic's gain of 43,000 jobs [4] Employment by Establishment Size - Small establishments (1-19 employees) added 20,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-249 employees) contributed 21,000 jobs [4] - Large establishments (500+ employees) added 12,000 jobs, indicating a more cautious hiring approach among larger firms [4] Wage Growth Insights - Job switchers experienced a wage growth of 6.9%, the highest since December 2024, while those remaining in their positions saw a wage increase of 4.5%, slightly down from March [6] Economic Context - Economic uncertainty is impacting employer hiring decisions, with concerns about policy and consumer uncertainty [3] - The labor market is described as "mixed," with some sectors experiencing job losses while others see moderate hiring [11] - Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with worries about rising unemployment and stagnant income growth [8]

Group 1 - London copper prices increased due to concerns over recent supply tightness, with three-month copper rising by $62 to $9,440 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $31.50 to $2,465.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw increases of $16 and $10 respectively [2] - Nickel and tin prices, however, decreased, with nickel falling by $65 to $15,550 per ton and tin down by $102 to $31,919 per ton [2] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories increased by 40% this month amid investigations into potential new copper import tariffs by Washington, with a significant premium of $1,443 per ton over LME copper [3] - The global copper market is expected to see a surplus increase from 138,000 tons last year to 289,000 tons this year, with continued oversupply projected for next year [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $162 billion in March, indicating a significant drag on first-quarter GDP growth, estimated to be as much as 1.9 percentage points [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国劳工部统计局周二公布的数据显示，3月份美国职位空缺数量降至719万个，为 去年9月以来的最低水平，远低于2月份修正后的748万个，亦低于外媒调查中所有经济学家的预期。这 一数字接近2020年新冠疫情爆发初期的水平，反映出在经济不确定性加剧背景下，企业招聘意愿明显降 温。 数据显示，劳动力市场需求正在减弱，企业普遍暂停支出计划，等待对特朗普总统政策方向获得更明确 的认知。目前，特朗普政府持续推进大规模关税政策，许多经济学家警告称，这可能抑制经济增长并提 高美国陷入衰退的风险。 尽管整体职位空缺下降，但报告中仍有部分积极信号。例如，3月份裁员人数降至去年6月以来最低水 平，招聘总数保持稳定。此外，"辞职率"指标小幅上升，创下自去年7月以来新高。辞职率反映了员工 对劳动力市场的信心，通常被视为劳动力市场健康的重要信号。 特朗普政府在缩减联邦政府规模方面的举措已开始对劳动力市场产生明显影响。据人力资源咨询公司 Challenger, Gray & Christmas数据显示，3月份美国裁员公告数量同比激增三倍，主要由"政府效率部"相 关政策所推动。4月份裁员计划的汇总数据预计将于本周四公布。 ...

| United States | South | Singapore | Malaysia | | | Mexico | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本对美出口占比最高 | Korea 1 0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | | | | Germany | | | Canada | | | | | 2.6% | | | | | | | Hong ... | India | 1.7% | 1796 | 17% | 15% | | | | 2.6% | France | | | | | China | 5.4% | Vietnam | | | | | | | Thailand | 2.6% | | | | | | 9% | | Australia | 1 4 3 3 13 9 | | | | | | 4.0% | 2.4% | 088% | | | | | | Countriae Continante | | | | | | ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周五20:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布4月非 ...

智通财经APP获悉，过去一周，随着特朗普的讲话缓解了投资者对中美贸易战升级及美联储独立性受损的担忧，美 股迎来强势反弹。标普500指数周涨幅达4.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨2.5%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指 数表现尤为亮眼，累计攀升6.6%。 在主要股指基本收复4月2日关税声明发布前的失地后，市场将迎来经济数据与企业财报密集发布的一周。 经济数据方面，在北京时间周五20:30公布4月非农就业报告前，一季度通胀数据与GDP增速将成为关注焦点。 企业层面，180家标普500指数成分股将披露季报，其中苹果(AAPL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、可口可乐(KO.US)、 礼来(LLY.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)等巨头最受瞩目。 政策转向助推反弹 上周股市大涨源于特朗普政府在两个关键问题上释放缓和信号。 特朗普上周二向记者表示"无意解雇"美联储主席鲍威尔，扭转了此前导致道指单日暴跌近千点的市场预期。在同场 记者会上，他同时暗示将降低对中国商品征收的145%关税，称税率将"大幅下调"。 Fundstrat全球技术战略主管Mark Newton表示："在 ...

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场稳健，整体保持平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has effectively reached full employment according to the Federal Reserve's Bostic [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a strong labor market, suggesting potential stability in economic conditions [1]

美联储戴利：硬数据并非对稳健增长和劳动力市场的误读。 ...