Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]

谢锋说，当前全球经济增长动能不足，家家有本难念的经，同舟共济是唯一出路，保护主义是饮鸩止 渴。抽刀断水水更流，在全球化的今天想人为切断资金流、技术流、人才流是不现实的，你筑墙设垒， 它就会流向其他地方。今年前5个月，中美贸易额同比下降8%，但中国同东盟、欧盟贸易额却分别增长 9%、3%。"小院高墙"圈不住墙外花开，"大院铁幕"只会激发中国加快自立自强。美国工商界既担心将 中国市场拱手相让，更担心丧失研发后劲，你们的关切应该得到重视。 据中国驻美大使馆网站消息，2025年6月18日，中国驻美国大使谢锋应邀出席美中贸易全国委员会2025 年度庆典晚宴并发表演讲。 谢锋指出，上世纪30年代，大打贸易战加速经济大萧条的殷鉴不远。如果各国都以邻为壑，将市场、产 能、技术甚至签证武器化，世界就会倒退到不讲规则、不讲诚信、弱肉强食的黑暗丛林。关税战扰乱了 全球产供链稳定，加剧了经济衰退风险，国际资本市场忽高忽低、忽红忽绿，IMF最新预测今年全球经 济增速仅为2.8%，美经济增长预期被下调0.9个百分点，这是你们希望看到的吗？ 谢锋强调，关税战没有赢家，冲突对抗不应成为选择，对话协商才是正确出路。近期，世界前两大经济 体重新 ...

Group 1 - The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam indicated that the credit growth target could be adjusted to 16% if necessary to promote economic growth [1]

不过美联储仍然认为未来美国经济仍面临较高的不确定性，关税增加可能会对经济活动产生压力，未来 几个月通胀将显著上升。美联储下调了未来对美国经济增长的预期，上调了未来通胀、失业率的预期。 本次会议声明中，在对劳动力市场的判断上，委员会维持了稳定的判断，但删除了"失业率稳定在低水 平"的措辞，在对通胀的判断上，维持了"仍然偏高"的表述。在经济指标预测中，美联储将2025年的失 业率预期上调至4.5%，将核心PCE物价指数的通胀预期上调至3%。在经济指标预测中，对2025年美国 实际GDP增速的预期中值从1.7%再下调至1.4%，并同步将2026年下调至1.6%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表示，关税政策的影响传导至终端消费需要时间，企业调查显示多数 公司计划将关税成本部分或全部转嫁消费者。关税影响的规模、持续时间高度不确定，因此维持现有的 政策立场是合适的，以便根据后续数据灵活调整。 当地时间6月18日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，这是 美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 本次美联储公布的点阵图显示，2025年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

专题：美联储连续第四次维持基准利率不变 仍预计今年将再降息两次 摩根资产管理美联储6月会议快评 美国5月整体及核心CPI环比均出现下行，供应管理会制造业PMI连续3个月低于荣枯线50，失业率则连 续3个月维持在4.2%，但6月13日以伊冲突升高中东地缘政治风险，国际油价急速上行，为美联储6月会 议增添不确定性。美东时间6月18日，美联储6月会议维持政策利率不变，但最新公布的经济前瞻指引显 示美联储委员下调年内经济增长，上调年内通胀；最新的利率点阵图则显示年内或仍有降息二次可能； 美联储主席鲍威尔会后发言整体仍然偏鹰，但市场表现相对平静，万得数据显示，昨夜标普500指数几 乎平盘作收，纳斯达克指数大跌3.56%，美元指数上涨0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率较前个交易日下行 1个基点至4.38%。 | 预测中位数 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | (1.7%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | | 失业率 | 4.5% | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，经济似乎正以1.5%至2%的速度增长。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的预测已转向预期经济增长放缓、通胀水平上升。 ...