Economic Growth - The overall economic activity in the U.S. has shown "slight growth" from late May to early July, indicating an improvement compared to the previous report [1] - Economic recovery is uneven, with only 5 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting slight or moderate growth, while 5 districts remained flat and 2 experienced moderate declines [2] - Businesses are maintaining a cautious approach, viewing uncertainty as the biggest constraint, which directly impacts hiring and investment decisions [2] Inflation - Concerns about rising prices are prevalent, primarily driven by tariffs, which have significantly increased input costs across nearly all regions, especially in manufacturing and construction [3] - Companies are attempting to pass some of these costs onto consumers through price increases, but rising consumer price sensitivity is creating resistance, squeezing profit margins [3] - The persistence of cost-push inflation suggests that consumer prices may accelerate towards the end of summer, posing further challenges to purchasing power [3] Labor Market - The labor market shows mixed signals, with slight improvements in overall employment levels but cautious hiring practices [4] - There is an improvement in labor supply, with lower turnover rates and increased job applications, yet structural issues like skilled labor shortages persist [4] - Companies are increasingly investing in automation and artificial intelligence to address labor supply challenges and reduce costs, indicating potential structural adjustments in the labor market [4] Consumer and Investment - Consumer spending, particularly non-auto purchases, has declined in most regions, reflecting overall weak performance [5] - Automotive sales have also seen a moderate decline after consumers made early purchases to avoid tariffs [5] - Businesses are postponing capital expenditure plans due to uncertainty, which could suppress future economic growth momentum [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report serves as a critical reference for Federal Reserve policymakers, indicating a complex policy path ahead [6] - The interplay between cost-push inflation from tariffs and consumer price sensitivity will require careful assessment by the Federal Reserve [6] - The fragile economic growth and cautious hiring in the labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to consider easing policies to support the economy in the future [6] Overall Economic Outlook - The July 2025 Beige Book presents a picture of the U.S. economy navigating through uncertainty, with cost pressures from tariffs, weak consumer spending, and cautious business investment as primary challenges [8] - Understanding these underlying trends is crucial for investors, businesses, and consumers, emphasizing the need for vigilance and flexibility in response to the current economic landscape [8]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding the expected 5.1% and up from 5.4% in Q1 2025[6] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52.3% in Q2, an increase from Q1[7] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year[7] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.6%[6] - Manufacturing sector growth was particularly strong, with a 7.4% increase in June[13] - High-tech industries led the growth with a 9.7% year-on-year increase[16] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in June grew by 4.8%, below the expected 5.6% and down from 6.4% in May[6] - The contribution of key consumer categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, remained strong with growth rates above 10%[23] - Restaurant revenue growth significantly declined to 0.9%, down 5 percentage points from the previous value[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, below the expected 3.7%[6] - Manufacturing investment growth fell to 5.1% in June, down from 7.8% previously[30] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector[35] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, unchanged from the previous value[6] - The average unemployment rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease from Q1[38] - There was a divergence in unemployment rates between local and migrant workers, with local unemployment rising slightly to 5.1%[38]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not significant. It is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies rather than introduce unexpected ones [7]. - The export in the second half of the year still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment remain important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 16, the Wind All A index opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing up 0.06%, with over 60% of stocks rising. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.30%, 0.23%, and 0.03% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.30%. Index futures outperformed the spot, with IF and IH main contracts closing down 0.24% and 0.14%, and IC and IM main contracts closing up 0.03% and 0.33% respectively [6]. 1.2 Outlook - In the external market, the impact of US tariffs on inflation has emerged. The unadjusted CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%, which affected the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Domestically, the economic data in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies [7]. - In the first half of the year, domestic demand was steadily restored, exports were resilient, and industrial production grew rapidly. In the second half of the year, exports still face uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment are important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the performance of domestic main indexes, market style, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All A and index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics on the share and trading volume of major ETF funds [8][13][17][20] 3. Industry News - On July 16, a symposium on the all - rounded expansion of domestic demand was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs are expected to have an increasingly significant impact on inflation in the coming months, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's current restrictive policy stance [1][3][6] - John Williams predicts that tariffs will raise inflation rates by approximately 1 percentage point from the second half of this year until 2026 [3][6] - The initial effects of tariff increases on core goods prices are already being observed, particularly in categories such as appliances, instruments, luggage, and tableware [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economic growth is forecasted to slow to around 1% this year, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to approximately 4.5% [5][8] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the current interest rate is a balancing act between economic growth and inflation control, as raising rates could further suppress growth while lowering rates could exacerbate inflation [6][7] - Concerns about rising inflation pressures are shared among Federal Reserve officials, indicating a cautious approach to policy-making in light of recent economic data [7][8] Group 3 - The weakening of the dollar may further intensify inflationary pressures, complicating the economic landscape as it affects the prices of imported goods [7][8] - The observed price fluctuations in core goods due to tariffs could lead to changes in consumer behavior and production plans, impacting overall economic performance [7][8]

Group 1 - U.S. businesses reported increased challenges due to labor shortages and rising import tariffs, leading to a cautious economic outlook [1][3] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight improvement in economic activity, but uncertainty remains high, causing businesses to be cautious [1][3] - Multiple industries expect sustained cost pressures, which may lead to faster consumer price increases in the coming months [3][4] Group 2 - Employment has seen slight growth, but many businesses plan to delay major hiring or layoffs until uncertainty decreases [3][6] - Immigration enforcement measures under the Trump administration are impacting various sectors, with labor shortages delaying project completions and affecting service availability [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the effects of tariffs on inflation and overall economic conditions, with concerns about potential price increases due to higher import tariffs [6][7]

德国央行16日发布的最新月度报告显示，今年1至3月，由于企业预期美国关税而提前交货，且工业生产 激增，德国经济增长了0.4%。第二季度经济可能停滞不前。德国央行表示，这些预期效应现已消退， 并警告称美国关税政策将带来"更多阻力"。 ...

德国财政部长克林贝尔：预计下半年经济将实现增长，政府已批准相关措施。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current external environment is more complex, and the "reciprocal tariff" policy increases global economic uncertainty. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for bond futures prices. However, the "anti-involution" policy drives some commodity prices higher, and the risk appetite in the short-term market increases, which may lead to greater fluctuations in Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose by 0.15%, and its trading volume decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short-term market interest rates generally increased. For instance, the SHIBOR 7-day rate rose by 3.1bp, the DR007 rate rose by 4.51bp, and the GC007 rate rose by 1.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key-term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.29bp to 1.66%, and the yield spread between long and short-term (10 - 2) Treasury bonds was 25.12bp [2]. - Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose by 7bp, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Germany dropped by 3bp, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Japan rose by 1.4bp [2]. Macro News - On July 15, the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net full-caliber injection of 173.5 billion yuan [3]. - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [3]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held from July 14 - 15, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [3]. - With the "white list" policy and the recovery of the real estate market, the debt - resolution work of real estate enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner. The decline in the funds available to real estate development enterprises has narrowed. However, real estate sales area and prices are still falling year - on - year, and greater efforts are needed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [3]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [3]. - NVIDIA will resume the sale of H20 chips in China and launch a new GPU for the Chinese market [3]. Industry Information - On July 15, most money market interest rates increased. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day variety rose by 10.6BP to 1.53%, hitting a new high in over a month [3]. - US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly driven by factors such as the increase in risk - aversion sentiment due to Trump's promotion of reciprocal tariffs, higher - than - expected US CPI data in June, concerns about global government fiscal deficits, and tighter market liquidity [3]. Comments and Strategies - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan, and Shibor short - term varieties rose collectively. The market liquidity tightened. To maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, a consecutive second - month increase in roll - over operations [3]. - Economic data in June showed that industrial added value, exports, and financial data were better than expected, while consumption and investment growth rates declined year - on - year. The decline in real estate investment growth rate widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The expectation of the introduction of real estate - stabilizing policies increased [3].

巴克莱将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.5%；瑞银将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.7%；澳新银行将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.2%上调至5.1%；摩根士丹利将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.5%上调至4.8%。 ...

Employment Market Overview - The employment rate for individuals aged 16-64 in the UK rose to 75.1% from February to April 2025, indicating a positive aspect of the job market [1] - However, the number of salaried employees decreased by 55,000 (0.2%) in March-April 2025 and by 115,000 (0.4%) from April 2024 to April 2025, suggesting a cautious hiring strategy among UK businesses [1][3] Public vs. Private Sector Employment - Public sector employment remained stable at 6.15 million in March 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while private sector employment growth faced different challenges [3] - This disparity provides insights for investors, indicating that stable public sector-related industries may offer defensive investment opportunities, while emerging sectors in the private sector also hold potential [3] Unemployment and Economic Inactivity - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 and above reached 4.6% from February to April 2025, showing an increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which raises concerns about economic growth [3] - The economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 decreased to 21.3%, but a significant portion is attributed to long-term illness and students, highlighting structural issues in the labor market [3] Wage Growth and Job Vacancies - Average wage growth for employees was notable, with regular wages increasing by 5.2% and total wages by 5.3% from February to April 2025, leading to improved consumer purchasing power [4] - Job vacancies fell to 736,000 from March to May 2025, marking a continuous decline over 35 quarters, indicating weakened labor demand and cautious investment in labor-intensive sectors [4] Consumer Sector Opportunities - With rising wages, the consumer sector is expected to experience growth, particularly in mid-to-high-end consumption areas such as premium retail, quality dining, and personalized travel services [5] - UK high-end fashion brands may benefit from increased disposable income, leading to higher sales, while specialty tourism projects and luxury hotels are also likely to gain from the consumption upgrade trend [5] Healthcare Sector Investment Potential - The high proportion of long-term illness in the economically inactive population underscores pressure on the UK healthcare system, presenting investment opportunities in medical device development and biopharmaceuticals focused on chronic disease treatment [6] Education and Training Sector Growth - The shortage of skilled labor in the UK is driving demand for education and training, particularly in vocational skills training and online education platforms, which are poised for significant growth [7] Human Resources Services Demand - Despite an overall decline in job vacancies, there remains a strong demand for high-end and specialized talent recruitment, suggesting that human resources service firms focusing on high-end talent acquisition may thrive [8]