世界银行方面表示，中国政府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资。同 时，中国出口市场更加多元化，为保持出口韧性提供了支撑。 12月11日，世界银行发布最新一期《中国经济简报：深入推进改革，提振经济前景》（以下简称"《简 报》"）。《简报》预测，2025年中国经济增长率为4.9%，较10月预测上调0.1个百分点，较6月上调0.4 个百分点。 中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 （编辑：朱会珊 审核：朱紫云 校对：颜京宁） 世界银行中国、蒙古和韩国局局长华玛雅表示，未来几年中国经济增长将更多依靠内需。除短期财政刺 激外，推进社会保障体系的结构性改革，为企业营造更可预期的营商环境，将有助于提振信心，为实现 有韧性、可持续的增长奠定基础。 ...

Economic Growth - Mongolia's economy grew by 5.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, aligning with expectations [1] - Agriculture and mining are the primary sectors contributing to economic growth, with optimistic prospects for the following year [1] External Environment - The impact of increased tariffs from the United States on Mongolia is lower than anticipated [1] - International market prices for minerals such as gold and copper remain high, although external economic uncertainties persist [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rate in Mongolia for January to November is reported at 8.2%, driven mainly by rising prices of vegetables and meat, as well as anticipated wage increases next year [1] - In response to the economic and financial market conditions, the central bank of Mongolia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 12% and to lower the reserve requirement ratio to enhance stability in the economy and financial sector [1]

Group 1 - Economists predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise interest rates, aligning with the views of influential committee member Isabel Schnabel, as inflation stabilizes around 2% [1][5] - A survey indicates that over 60% of respondents believe officials are more likely to increase rather than decrease borrowing costs, a significant shift from October when only one-third held this view [1] - Analysts are revising their forecasts due to the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid global trade tensions and geopolitical turmoil, with expectations for the first rate hike potentially occurring in the second half of 2027 [5][8] Group 2 - The ECB's current interest rates are viewed as appropriate, with most committee members stating that rates are at a "suitable level" [5] - Predictions suggest that the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2027, although tighter financing conditions could pose headwinds to the economy [5][11] - Concerns remain regarding inflation in 2027, particularly with the delayed implementation of a new carbon pricing system in the EU, although most economists expect the ECB's inflation forecast for that year to remain at 1.9% [8][10] Group 3 - Approximately 45% of survey respondents believe that economic growth is primarily constrained by structural forces beyond the ECB's control, such as increased competition from China and high energy costs [14] - The ECB is expected to maintain its current stance until at least 2027, as monetary policy alone cannot address structural growth issues [14] - The impact of U.S. policies, both monetary and trade-related, is viewed as a significant threat to the Eurozone economy, alongside ongoing concerns regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [11][14]

周五亚洲早盘时段，新西兰元/美元货币对在0.5815附近保持正向交易区间。市场主要受到美国经济数 据发布、美联储政策动向及新西兰国内经济指标的影响。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至12月6日当周首次申请失业救济人数升至23.6万人，高于市场预 期的22万人，也较前值19.2万人（修正后）明显上升。该数据创下自2021年7月中旬以来的最大增幅， 表明美国劳动力市场可能出现一定程度的降温。这一数据公布后，美元承受了一定的抛售压力，从而为 新西兰元兑美元汇率提供了支撑。 新西兰联储11月已将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至2.25%，但明确暗示未来利率调整将取决于 经济与通胀前景。 目前分析师普遍认为，新西兰联储的本轮降息周期可能暂告段落，这种政策预期与美国持续宽松的货币 政策形成对比，为纽元汇率提供了一定支撑。 今日晚些时候，美联储官员贝丝·哈马克和奥斯坦·古尔斯比将发表讲话。市场预计会从他们的表态中寻 找未来货币政策方向的线索。 全球经济增长情况、大宗商品价格波动，以及其他主要经济体的数据表现，也将持续对新西兰元兑美元 汇率产生影响。 新西兰元兑美元近期走势偏强，主要得益于美国就业数据不及预期，以及新 ...

在美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）如期宣布降息并上调美国经济增长预期后，铜价逼近历史新高，其他 金属价格也随之走高。 在伦敦市场，这一工业金属价格一度上涨 1.5%，突破每吨 11700 美元，接近本周一创下的历史纪录。 美联储已连续第三次降息，但在政策声明中微调措辞，暗示未来降息的不确定性有所增加，其政策目标 是在控制通胀的同时为经济增长提供支持。 美联储目前预计，明年美国经济将增长 2.3%，高于此前 1.8% 的预测值；同时预计通胀增速将放缓至 2.4%。降息往往对金属及其他大宗商品有利，一方面会提升其相对债券等生息资产的吸引力，另一方 面也会降低资本密集型制造和工业企业的融资成本。 此前数月中国铜消费量大幅下滑，而此次美国经济的乐观前景也提振了工业金属的需求预期。中国政府 于本周一释放信号，将坚持 "积极" 的财政政策取向和 "适度宽松" 的货币政策基调，着力提振内需。 今年以来，受多起矿山生产中断事件影响，且市场担忧明年潜在关税落地前贸易商纷纷向美国输送铜、 导致境外供应短缺，铜价已累计上涨超 30%。从长期来看，可再生能源行业消费需求的攀升正为这一 红色金属的需求提供支撑。 责任编辑：郭明煜 在美国联 ...

黄金2026年底预计能到4750美元/盎司。 临近年末，全球经济走势和政策取向是市场最关注的话题。近日，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲 开发银行等国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。 展望2026年，全球经济怎么走？中国经济的韧性支撑来自哪里？主要经济体货币政策还有多大空间？12 月11日，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在一场交流会上提到，考虑到美国GDP增长加 速、通胀压力不减，明年美联储可能不会再降息。他判断，中国明年一季度和二季度将分别降准和降息 一次，但未来更多将依靠其他货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，央行国债买卖的作用会越来越大。 美联储还有多大降息空间？ "明年全球经济增长率预计和今年持平。"丁爽认为，全球经济明年能够维持3.4%的增长率，但结构上会 发生一定变化：一是全球贸易增长较今年会放缓；二是消费推动力下降，投资驱动增强；三是多数经济 体降息周期接近尾声，经济增长更多将来自财政政策支持。 "美国经济增长在2026年会有所加速，一方面受益于AI等领域的商业投资比较强劲，另一方面是因为减 税等措施会提振投资信心。失业率预计在明年下半年随着经济增长加速而下行。"聚焦美国经济，丁爽 ...

今日焦点 挪威即将发布区域经济调查报告。我们预计该报告将证实经济增长仍以温和步伐持续提升，产能利用率基本持平，并表明当前经济活动水平略低于正常水 平。具体而言，我们预计受访者将预测下季度增长0.3-0.4%，产能利用率维持在35%不变，面临劳动力短缺的企业比例将从25%降至24%。 瑞典将公布11月通胀最终数据。初步数据表现低于预期：CPI同比涨幅0.3%，CPIF同比涨幅2.3%，CPIF（不含能源）同比涨幅2.4%。鉴于初步估算通常具有 可靠性，数据大幅修正的可能性较低。深入分析细节以探究意外波动背后的因素将颇具意义，特别是需厘清低位表现究竟源于季节性波动还是其他深层原 因。 央行动态方面，焦点转向瑞士央行，我们预测其利率将维持在0.00%不变。土耳其央行亦将公布利率决议。 昨日要闻 美国联邦储备委员会昨晚如市场普遍预期，将政策利率目标下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。米兰投票支持更大规模的50个基点降息，施密德和古尔斯比则持 反对意见主张维持利率不变，这与我们的预期一致。我们（及市场）原预期鲍威尔将反驳市场对2026年进一步降息的定价预期。然而，他在记者会上回避强 硬的前瞻指引，导致美国国债收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, indicating strong resilience and vitality in the Chinese economy despite external challenges [1][3]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The World Bank has increased its economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points for this year, while the IMF has also raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5% [1][3]. - Multiple international organizations, including the Asian Development Bank and the OECD, have similarly upgraded their growth expectations for China this year [3]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with an expected total economic output of 140 trillion yuan for the year, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest economy [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [5]. - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.59 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a 4.5% year-on-year increase, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth [5]. Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.4% from January to November, indicating robust export performance [7]. - The adaptability of Chinese enterprises and supply chains has been highlighted as a key factor in maintaining strong export growth, with a diversification of export destinations and an increase in high-quality product exports [9]. Trade and Global Economic Stability - China is committed to maintaining a multilateral trade system, providing certainty and stability in global trade amidst challenges such as tariff uncertainties and trade barriers [11]. - The UN Conference on Trade and Development noted that over 70% of global trade still operates under WTO rules, emphasizing China's role in leading development among global south countries [11][13].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P 500, is experiencing a strong year with a 16% increase in 2025 despite economic uncertainties due to President Trump's tariffs [2][8] - A Federal Reserve study indicates that these tariffs will negatively impact economic growth, leading to increased unemployment and slower GDP growth [4][5] - The current valuation of the S&P 500 is at 22.4 times forward earnings, one of the highest in the past 40 years, raising concerns about future stock market performance [8] Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's research suggests that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by half a percentage point in 2025 and 2026, which could lead to slower corporate earnings growth [5][6] - Historical data shows a correlation between GDP growth and corporate earnings growth, indicating that slower GDP growth could adversely affect stock market performance [6][7] Market Valuation - The S&P 500's current valuation is concerning, as it has only reached similar levels during two other periods in the last 40 years, suggesting potential overvaluation [8] - Comparatively, between 2005 and 2014, nominal U.S. GDP rose by 43% while the S&P 500 achieved a total return of 110%, and between 2015 and 2024, nominal GDP rose by 67% with a total return of 243% for the S&P 500 [9]

来源：国是直通车 作者：陶思阅 受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"影响，多项关键经济数据发布延迟，这意味着美联储在数据受限的条件下进 行利率决策。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发表声明称，经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的 下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 就本次降息25个基点，联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中9人投票赞成，有3人投反对票。其中一名委员要 求降息50个基点，另外两名委员主张维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来首次出现如此多的反对票。 鲍威尔表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动 力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导 致通胀过高。 特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。 传递的政策信号值得关注 专家分析认为，议息会议传递的未来政策信号和美联储内部团结度值得关注。美联储两大使命是促进充 分就业和维持物价稳定，然而在今年10月的货币政策会议上，美联储官员当时已就12月是否进一步降息 出现明显分歧。 如市场 ...