[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 5 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 一季度经济实现开门红，实际 GDP 同比 5.4%，名义 GDP 同比 4.6%，反应 9.24 新政以来经济复苏的积极因素在不断累积；政治局会议强调加紧实施已落地的 政策，财政发债节奏加快，货币政策加力，市场对宽松预期明显升温。上证综 指和深证成指在月末分别收于 3279、9899.8，月内涨跌幅分别为-1.7%、-5.76%。 债市则受避险情绪影响，4 月初迎来一波快牛，10 年国债收益率两个交易日内 下行 18bp，但随着后续多空力量进入相对平衡状态，利率难上但也难下，10 年国债收益率在 1.62-1.67%区间震荡。展望后续，基本面对债市的影响逐渐 弱化+中美关税谈判难以短期达成和解的背景下，5 月偏宽松的资金面可能会 给短端品种带来更好的投资机会，同时可以在组合中保留一定的久期仓位，以 抓捕降准/降息落地后带来的一波快牛机会。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 ...

旅游行业更是迎来了高光时刻，全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8% 。热门旅游目的地前十名被北 京、上海、杭州、广州、成都、重庆、南京、武汉、深圳、西安收入囊中 。这些城市就像磁石一般，吸引着来自五湖四海的游客。北京，古老的故宫红墙 黄瓦，见证着历史的沧桑变迁，假期里每天都挤满了前来参观的游客，人们在故宫的每一处角落，感受着历史的厚重；上海，外滩的万国建筑在灯光的映照 下，散发着独特的魅力，与陆家嘴的现代化高楼遥相呼应，吸引着无数游客驻足拍照打卡。 在热门景区里，到处都是人头攒动。三星堆、九寨沟、乐山大佛、峨眉山等景区，连续多日门票售罄 ，人们对这些自然与人文景观的热爱可见一斑。四川 作为旅游大省，交出了一份格外亮眼的答卷，共接待游客4365万人次，创收235亿元 。18家5A级景区表现尤为突出，接待量达325.36万人次，其中宽窄巷 子、都江堰 - 青城山景区5月3日分别以19.7万和10.42万人次刷新单日接待纪录 。游客们穿梭在宽窄巷子，品尝着各种特色小吃，感受着成都的悠闲生活； 在都江堰，人们惊叹于古人的智慧，望着奔腾不息的江水，想象着这座水利 ...

Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, discussing global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold a total of HKD 116.614 billion over three days to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, ensuring the effectiveness of the linked exchange rate system [1] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced films entering the U.S. market as part of a broader trade strategy aimed at negotiating new trade agreements with multiple countries [1] Group 2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the Trump administration's tariff policies have significantly harmed California, but the state remains committed to maintaining long-term trade relations with China [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [2] - Eurozone inflation levels remained stable, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the European economy [2] Group 3 - Japan's official unemployment rate for March was reported at 2.5%, slightly above expectations [3] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.24% to 41,218.83 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.64% to 5,650.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.74% to 17,844.24 points [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.09% to USD 3,343.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.29% to USD 32.68 per ounce [5] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil main contract fell by 1.82% to USD 57.23 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 1.55% to USD 60.34 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.86 basis points to 3.8302%, the 5-year yield increased by 2.1 basis points to 3.9376%, the 10-year yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.3433%, and the 30-year yield increased by 4.67 basis points to 4.8336% [6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 99.79, while the euro rose by 0.14% against the dollar to 1.1316 [6]

隔夜美股再度扬眉吐气，继续高歌猛进，几乎把之前因关税问题升级带来的跌幅全部"收复失地"。其 中，道琼斯指数和标普500指数更是豪取九连阳，这不是一般的"小涨"，而是自2004年以来最长的连续 上涨纪录，市场情绪热烈可见一斑。 如今，A股大盘仍在3300点下方"磨底"，从估值角度看，确实具备一定吸引力。横向对比全球主要市 场，A股的市盈率、市净率等指标都显得"物美价廉"，这种估值优势已经维持了相当一段时间。但问题 来了——股民朋友们真的买账吗？ 有意思的是，美股这波连涨其实是在A股先涨的基础上接棒发力的。随着全球主要股市——无论是欧洲 还是其他地区——纷纷走出低谷、重回上升通道，市场信心明显回暖。那么问题来了：A股在经历了节 前的震荡调整后，节后开盘若不能顺势补涨，岂不是白白浪费了这波全球牛市的东风？毕竟，前期的努 力如果最后没能转化为成果，那就真的成了"为他人作嫁衣"了。可以说，接下来A股的表现，非常值得 各方期待。 说白了，市场要走得远，不能只靠价值支撑，还得有点"烟火气"——也就是看得见的赚钱效应和烧钱潜 力。没有赚钱的预期，谁还愿意掏腰包？市场一旦没了人气，流动性就像干涸的河床，再好的资产也可 能沦为" ...

日本央行：日本经济正呈温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲弱迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury emphasizes the significant financial and material support provided by the American people to Ukraine's defense since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion, highlighting a strong economic partnership that enables collaboration and investment to accelerate Ukraine's economic recovery [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has provided important financial and material support to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict with Russia [1] - This economic partnership allows for collaboration and joint investment between the U.S. and Ukraine [1] - The focus is on ensuring shared assets, talent, and capabilities to facilitate Ukraine's economic recovery [1]

业务咨询 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.4.30」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌不一。四期指表现分化，中小盘股强 于大盘蓝筹股。本周，据中国官方PMI数据，国内经济受外部环境冲击呈现"制造业短期承 压、非制造业韧性支撑"的特征，但经济复苏态势不变。此外，受假期不确定性影响，市场 情绪相对谨慎。本周，市场成交活跃度与上周基本一致，成交金额维持在1万亿元左右。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周三涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2506 | -0.60 | -0.17 | 3752.00 | | | IH2506 | -0.67 | -0.48 | 2627.20 | ...

Core Points - Germany's GDP showed a slight recovery of 0.2% in the first quarter of this year according to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office [1] - Economic experts have warned that the outlook for Germany's economic recovery remains grim, with the possibility of a recession re-emerging in the summer [1]

■■ 回顾：亚太股市重拾外资关注 在特朗普新政与美国经济走弱的预期影响下，逆向投资成为了2025年一季度最有效的投资策略。过去两年大 幅上涨的美日股市收跌，而恒生指数领跑亚太。欧洲国家在财政赤字扩大和俄乌冲突停火可能性上升的背景 下领跑发达国家股市。此外Deepseek等AI agent获得了更广泛的市场关注，并带动全球科技投资者进行国别 资产再平衡，这成为了推动中国科技股表现的另外一个因素。 基于美国经济走弱、美联储政策摇摆以及特朗普政府带动地缘风险升温这三点因素，我们认为国际资金将持 续出现交易一致性的松动，国际投资者将开始尝试寻求美国资产以外的备选投资方案。我们认为国际资本流 出美股所面临的"资产荒"将成为影响二季度全球股市最重要的驱动因素，面对诸多不确定性，具备资金规模 容量优势的中国股市（A股及港股）有望成为外资全球配置的重要选项。此外，当前基本面的改善趋势仍未 成为市场共识，且市场仍需要更充分的数据验证经济的复苏趋势，因此我们认为资金面的变化在二季度将较 基本面有更强的定价权。虽然海外地缘不确定性将加剧市场的波动率水平，但资金面改善将有望通过估值扩 张带动A股市场走强。 下调对沪深300的净利润增 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].