Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that trade policies pose risks to the Fed's inflation control and employment objectives, suggesting a need to balance these factors in monetary policy formulation [1] Group 1 - Trade policies are impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation and employment effectively [1] - The Federal Reserve will consider these trade-related risks when making decisions regarding monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - OECD has significantly downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.9%, attributing this to the impact of Trump's trade policies [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been halved from 2.8% to 1.6%, which is considerably lower than previous predictions made in March [2] - OECD's chief economist warns that the deteriorating economic outlook will affect global growth, with slowing growth and trade contraction impacting income and employment [2] Group 2 - The assessment reveals that Trump's policies are a pressing threat to the global economy, with no immediate solutions in sight [3] - Trade retaliation from U.S. partners, worsening confidence, and financial market re-pricing could exacerbate the situation [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Board member indicated that tariff policies will significantly contribute to rising inflation in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - OECD emphasizes that alleviating trade tensions and reducing tariffs are crucial for reviving growth and investment, but the effects of such measures will not be immediate [4] - The organization warns of increasing fiscal risks for countries due to significant spending pressures in defense, climate, and aging populations [5] - OECD calls for governments to cut unnecessary spending and expand the tax base to increase revenue [5]

欧元区通胀率降幅超过预期，低于欧洲央行2%的目标，支持欧央行进一步降息。 当地时间周二，欧盟统计局公布数据显示，欧元区5月调和CPI同比初值为1.9%，为八个月来首次低于欧央行2%目标水平，也2021年中期以来仅有的第二 次，且略低于预期2%和前值2.2%。环比初值0%，持平预期，前值为0.6%。 数据发布恰逢欧央行货币政策会议前夕。由于通胀回落和特朗普贸易政策对经济前景的影响，市场几乎完全预期欧央行将把政策利率再降25个基点至2%。 除了6月，市场预期欧央行今年还会再降息一次。 通胀压力的急剧减弱程度甚至超出了部分经济学家的预期。一些分析师预计，欧元区通胀率可能在今年内持续低于2%目标，直到2026年才有望重新回升。 分析指出，6月可能是欧央行管理委员会今年最后一次"毫无争议"的政策决定，因为决策者们对未来价格走向存在分歧，争议焦点不仅包括关税冲击，还涉 及欧洲即将大幅增加的国防和基础设施支出。 短期内，贸易局势将成为关键变量，欧洲央行可能继续降息的前提是经济形势进一步恶化，特别是如果美国和欧盟在7月前无法就关税问题达成协议。此前 据央视新闻报道，欧盟争取到美国暂缓征收50%关税的"喘息期"至7月9日。 目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OECD report indicates that Trump's confrontational trade policies have led to a global economic downturn, with the U.S. experiencing the most severe impact [1]. Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the U.S. growth rate significantly reduced from 2.8% to 1.6% [1][2]. - Other regions' forecasts include Euro area at 1.0%, Japan at 0.7%, China at 4.7%, and India at 6.3% for 2025 [2]. Impact of Trade Policies - The report highlights that trade barriers and policy uncertainty are undermining market confidence and investment activities, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1][4]. - OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira states that the global economic outlook is bleak, with reduced trade affecting income and employment growth [4]. Recommendations for Policy - The OECD emphasizes the importance of reaching agreements to ease trade tensions, reduce tariffs, and eliminate trade barriers to restore economic growth and investment [4]. - The report suggests that even if the Trump administration adjusts tariff policies, the positive effects on economic growth and inflation relief will not be immediate due to ongoing policy uncertainty [7]. Additional Economic Concerns - The report warns that the negative impacts of trade policies are compounded by immigration restrictions and large-scale federal layoffs, which may further deteriorate the U.S. economy [7]. - OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann notes that retaliatory measures from trade partners are slowing export growth, and significant immigration slowdown is also a concern [7]. Inflation and Fiscal Risks - The OECD predicts that U.S. inflation will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve potentially delaying easing until 2026, and warns of the risk of consumer inflation expectations spiraling out of control [7]. - The report also highlights increasing global fiscal risks due to pressures from defense spending, climate governance, and aging populations, recommending governments to cut unnecessary spending and broaden the tax base [7].

日本央行行长植田和男：由于贸易政策的影响，日本企业的工资和价格设定行为可能会发生显著变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for heightened vigilance regarding the high uncertainty brought about by trade policies and their impact on the Japanese economy and prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is concerned about the potential effects of trade policy uncertainties on economic stability [1] - There is a recognition that these uncertainties could significantly influence inflation and overall price levels in Japan [1]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 6月3日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 783.10 | 1.40% | 131022 | 180833 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 国投期货：假期期间贵金属上涨。特朗普贸易政策反复，再度对钢铝关税加码。数据方面美国5月ISM 制造业PMI录得48.5不及预期，为2024年11月以来新低。贸易战阴霾下市场前景依然充满不确定性，后 续关注美国贸易法院禁止特朗普关税以及各方谈判进展，贵金属将测试前期高点位置阻力，维持回调买 入思路。 北京时间周二22:00，美国劳工统计局将公布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)，预计这一重量级就业 数据将引发本交易日金价大行情。 经济学家预计，美国4月JOLTs职位空缺为710万人，此前3月为719.2万人。 JOLTS职位空缺报告是是美联储高度关注的劳动力市场数据。 美国劳工统计局此前公布的3月JOLTS报告显示，当月职位空缺数低于预期，降至719.2万人，较2月下 修后的748万人回落。这一数 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 6 月 3 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘政治和贸易政策升温，金价上行 核心观点 端午节前，金价震荡下行。端午节期间，地缘政治风险升级，美 国贸易政策再度升温，进而推升金价。 贸易政策方面：5 月 30 日特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起，将把钢铁和 铝的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。此前，还威胁于 7 月 9 日对欧盟加征 50%关税，引发全球贸易战担忧。。 地缘政治方面：俄乌冲突加剧，乌克兰在第二轮和平谈判前夕， 对俄罗斯五个地区的军事机场发动大规模无人机袭击，目标包括西伯 利亚的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold 2508 is expected to show short - term strength due to the escalation of geopolitical and trade policies, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term oscillation, and an upward trend for the day. Nickel 2507 is recommended for a wait - and - see approach as it has an upstream - strong and downstream - weak situation, with a short - term and medium - term oscillation and a day - long slightly weak oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is upward, medium - term is oscillating, and for the day is upward, with a short - term strong view [1][3]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, US trade policies and global geopolitical risks escalated. Trump planned to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on July 9. The White House was firm on maintaining tariffs. Geopolitical risks included the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the tense situation in the Middle East, which increased the safe - haven sentiment and pushed up the gold price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 3400 - dollar mark for New York gold and the 785 - 790 mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, and for the day is slightly weak, with a wait - and - see view [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, LME nickel rose slightly, and SHFE nickel is expected to open slightly higher after the holiday, with attention on the pressure at the 122,000 level. Before the holiday, the nickel price dropped significantly due to the rumor of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumor did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the technical support at the 120,000 mark is still valid. It is expected that the liquidation of previous short positions will cause the price to continue to rebound [5].