兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚全世界都在等待美股盘后英伟达公布的最新财报，以及美联储的最新会议纪要！ 一起看看海外市场的表现！ Main Street Research的首席投资官詹姆斯·德默特表示："英伟达的财报不仅对公司本身至关重要，也可能对整个股市起到提振作用，能让投资者重 新聚焦人工智能的潜力，而非华盛顿方面关于关税和税收的消息。" 投资者将关注基于英伟达最新Blackwell芯片的计算系统供应情况及其利润率表现。美国对中国出口先进半导体的限制可能使英伟达的财报发布变得 更复杂。此外，英伟达也正面临质疑，即对人工智能的巨额投资是否合理，同时其产品已成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点之一。 德默特补充说："我们认为，人工智能的故事和发展仍在持续，但受到了贸易担忧和美国政策的干扰。人工智能已被证明可以提升全球经济及企业 的生产力，而我们目前仅处于这个周期的早期阶段。在我们看来，贸易政策可能会减缓经济增长，但人工智能带来的生产力提升应能抵消部分阻 力。" 美股下跌 5月28日晚间，美股开盘之后，三大指数震荡，持续下跌。 英伟达是本季度"七巨头"中最后一家公布财报的公司，作为全球市值最高的芯片制造商，它的表现将成为本轮财报季行情的终 ...

Group 1: Macro News - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth rate cut since August of the previous year, totaling a reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The current inflation rate in New Zealand is 2.5%, which is within the target range of 1%-3%, allowing for further monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank highlighted the "sharp shift in U.S. trade policy" as a key reason for increasing monetary easing, indicating potential negative impacts on New Zealand's export-dependent economy due to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently down, with the latest price at 771.64 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.67% [4] - The highest price reached today was 773.80 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 767.20 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 796-806 CNY per gram, with support levels between 733-743 CNY per gram [4]

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are declining due to the dual impact of Trump's trade policies and OPEC+ production decisions, with the market awaiting further signals [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Recent trends indicate a significant drop in oil prices, influenced by geopolitical factors and production strategies [1] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of OPEC+ decisions on future oil supply and pricing [1] Group 2: Trade Policies - Trump's trade policies are contributing to market volatility, affecting investor sentiment and oil demand forecasts [1] - The interplay between trade policies and oil production decisions is critical for understanding market dynamics [1]

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，美国贸易和移民政策的重大转变正在给美联储官员在9月前调整 利率制造不确定性。当前特朗普政府正与多国政府进行关税谈判。 最高法院上周裁定，美联储不受特朗普试图解雇独立联邦机构高官的影响。 尽管裁决允许特朗普撤换其他两家机构的官员，但法院明确表示该决定不适用于美联储，称美联储 是"结构独特、半私人的实体"。这一裁决似乎保护了主席鲍威尔免遭直接解职，但尚不清楚能否阻止特 朗普撤销其主席职务。 特朗普上月释放矛盾信号：4月17日在社交媒体发文称"迫不及待要炒掉鲍威尔"，数日后又对记者表示 无意撤换他。 卡什卡利周一指出，美国经济最大风险来自贸易壁垒和移民政策等重大新政的悬而未决。"我希望相关 谈判能更快取得进展，以提供政策确定性。" 卡什卡利坦言，"这种不确定性正在拖累经济活动，并给我们带来决策挑战，因为我们无法确定事态最 终走向，也就难以明确货币政策路径"。 过去一周，多名美联储政策制定者暗示，在关税政策及其经济影响明朗化之前，他们对利率调整的观望 态度可能持续数月。 特朗普上周晚些时候加剧了不确定性——他先是威胁对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税，随后将实施日期推 迟至7月9日。他还警 ...

Macroeconomic and Policy Aspects - European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde indicated that the ECB will announce its latest interest rate decision on June 5, following seven rate cuts in the past year, with expectations for continued easing to boost economic growth [1] - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a stance of not rushing to cut rates during a commencement speech at Princeton University [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted increased uncertainty from trade policies and indicated that future rate hikes will depend significantly on the impact of tariffs on the economy [1][2] Economic Data Releases - U.S. April durable goods orders are expected to drop sharply from 9.2% to -8.2%, while core capital goods orders are projected to rise slightly from 0.1% to 0.2% [2] - U.S. April PCE price index is anticipated to slow down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Industry Events - OPEC+ announced plans to gradually increase production to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, with a significant increase of 411,000 barrels per day planned for July [4] - Huawei held a launch event for its new product, the Respect S800 [5] Company-Specific Events - Meituan is expected to report Q1 2026 revenue of 86.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, with a focus on its delivery and local services [6] - Pinduoduo is projected to achieve Q1 2025 revenue of 103.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.07%, while expected earnings per share will decline by 9.77% [6] - Xiaomi is forecasted to report Q1 revenue of 106.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.6%, driven by recovery in the smartphone market and government subsidies [7]

金十数据5月22日讯，美国初请失业金降至四周低点，进一步证明，面对与贸易政策相关的不确定性日 益增加，就业市场仍保持健康。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周初请失业金人数减 少2,000人，至22.7万人，与预期基本一致。初请失业金人数表明，尽管对关税的担忧加剧，以及特朗普 政府缩减联邦政府的行动带来的连锁反应，但企业对员工配备水平相对满意。尽管特朗普政府在部分关 税问题上做出了让步，但美联储穆萨勒姆仍认为，贸易政策可能会给就业市场带来压力。他表示："总 的来说，关税可能会抑制经济活动，导致劳动力市场进一步疲软。"包括耐克和亚马逊在内的多家大公 司最近都表示正在裁员。失去联邦政府资助的学校和企业也宣布裁员，其中包括哥伦比亚大学。 美国初请数据降至四周以来最低水平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of the "two new" policies. Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, support automobile and home appliance consumption, and offer subsidies for purchasing new digital products [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the export - related policy restrictions in the logistics industry. The EU plans to charge fees on small parcels entering the EU, most of which are from China [1]. - The prices of some upstream products are fluctuating. Egg prices are oscillating, aluminum prices are rising, while glass and rubber prices are falling in the short - term [2]. - In the mid - stream, the PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - In the downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have been oscillating recently [2]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Aluminum prices have been rising continuously [2]. - **Black metals**: Glass and rubber prices have declined in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical industry**: The PTA开工率 has increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased recently [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt开工率 has been increasing continuously recently [3]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service industry**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. 3.4 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has decreased from 78.86 last week to 63.16 this week [52]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries have changed. For example, the spot price of PTA has increased by 1.48% to 4986.3 yuan/ton on May 21, while the spot price of WTI crude oil has decreased by 2.58% to 62.0 dollars/barrel [53].

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada focuses on the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland emphasized the need to address fundamental issues such as manufacturing overcapacity, non-market behavior, and financial crimes [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aims to encourage G7 allies to respond more effectively to China's economic policies during the meeting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the G7 finance ministers will not announce a new trade agreement, as the U.S. administration prioritizes its own interests [1] - Support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are key topics, with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko advocating for stronger sanctions during the meeting [1] - The G7 finance ministers are anticipated to issue a statement supporting Ukraine against Russia, although the wording will be broad and not specific regarding sanctions [1]

Group 1 - The IMF calls for the U.S. to reduce its fiscal deficit in light of rising debt burdens, emphasizing that the current deficit is too large [1][2] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over increasing debt, with projections indicating that the deficit-to-GDP ratio could rise from 6.4% last year to nearly 9% by 2035 if proposed tax cuts are implemented [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attributes the downgrade to the previous administration's policies and expresses a commitment to reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% before the end of the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 98% in the fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a continuous rise in debt levels [2] - Despite expectations of a decrease in the fiscal deficit due to rising tariff revenues, these forecasts do not account for the potential impacts of Trump's tax cut proposals currently under congressional review [2][4] - Concerns over the deficit and Moody's downgrade have led to a weakening of the dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.04%, the highest level in 2023 [3][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the deficit implies that the government will need to issue more bonds, raising questions about the stability of the U.S. market among domestic and international investors [4] - The IMF has revised down its economic growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.8% and for global growth to 2.8%, factoring in the effects of Trump's tariffs [4] - Recent announcements of significant tariff reductions between the U.S. and China are seen as positive developments, although the actual tariff rates remain higher than last year, and uncertainties persist regarding the implementation of new tax rates [5]