摩根大通(JPM.N)CEO戴蒙：人们对美国的债务和贸易政策极度自满。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others, with specific PE ratios projected for 2025 [4][36][37] Core Views - The apparel manufacturing sector shows stable revenue trends, with companies like Yuyuan Group and Ruo Hong reporting year-on-year revenue growth of 10.5% and 18.2% respectively for April 2025 [1][12] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports have seen significant growth, with April 2025 figures showing a 20% increase in textile and a 27% increase in footwear exports year-on-year [19][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring international trade policies and their impact on the industry, particularly in light of recent tariff changes [3][36] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Apparel manufacturing companies reported stable revenue trends for April 2025, with Yuyuan Group and Ruo Hong showing healthy growth [1][12] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports are performing well, while China's related product exports are relatively weak [19][27] Weekly Insights - Focus on robust brands with solid fundamentals, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [2][35] - The sportswear segment is expected to benefit from national policy support and increased participation in sports activities [2][35] Industry Overview - The apparel manufacturing sector is experiencing short-term stock price impacts due to tariff events, but long-term leaders with integrated and international supply chains are expected to gain market share [3][36] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Weixing Co., with projected PE ratios for 2025 of 12, 15, and 18 respectively [34][36] Recent Reports - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025 [8][36] - The jewelry sector is also showing signs of recovery, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 6.9% in early 2025 [3][36]

佩里指出，关税如今越来越成为外交政策的"钝器"，这一趋势正在削弱支撑全球贸易数十年的规则体 系。 "对于全球贸易界而言，这引发了一个关键问题：如果规则可以一夜之间被改写，企业又如何作出为期 五年、十年的商业决策？"他说："在全球市场中，不确定性是最昂贵的成本。" 英国四十八家集团主席杰克·佩里近日接受新华社书面专访时表示，美国政府近期推出的一系列关税政 策显示，其贸易政策正从经济合作导向转向地缘政治导向，这一转变将给全球贸易带来更多不确定性。 "美国的这一举措传递出一个信号：市场逻辑正在让位于政治考量。这种做法增加了全球贸易体系的波 动性，而该体系本应建立在可预测性的基础之上。"佩里表示。 作为伦敦出口公司首席执行官，佩里还对因保护主义抬头而重复建设供应链的趋势表示担忧。"当国家 开始搭建彼此平行的供应链时，效率会降低，成本会增加，维系贸易流通的信任也会随之流失。"他 说。 在谈到关税升级是否可能成为一种长期趋势时，佩里表示，局势仍有回转的空间，但这需要政治意愿和 商业现实的共同作用。他指出："历史告诉我们，保护主义结果将适得其反，长期看会削弱经济增长的 根基。" "扭转这种周期的动力并非来自理想主义，而来自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion between U.S. Vice President Vance and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on shared interests and goals, particularly in the context of fair trade policies and the enduring relationship between the two countries [1] Group 1 - The dialogue emphasizes the importance of fair trade policies between the U.S. and Canada [1] - The meeting highlights the ongoing and lasting relationship between the two nations [1]

5 月 12 日，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，宣布同步调整对对方商品加征的关税措施。政策落地 后，中国输美海运集装箱订单量激增近 300% ，中国出口企业忙得热火朝天，美国进口商疯狂 "囤货"。 可这边厢中国订单呈井喷式增长，那边厢中国市场却没掀起大量采购美国商品的热潮，这让特朗普着实 有些无奈。 先看中国输美订单暴增这一情况。贸易追踪机构 Vizion 数据显示，截至 5 月 14 日的七天，从中国到美 国的集装箱运输预订量飙升 277%，达到 21530 个标准集装箱，相比此前的 5709 个，近乎涨了 3 倍。 浙江义乌作为 "世界小商品城"，感受尤为明显。美国客户纷纷催促发货，当地商户订单接到手软。有 从事工艺品生产的商家表示，此前因关税滞留的货物，早已转销其他市场，如今美国市场大门再度敞 开，订单量迅速回升。还有无缝内衣生产企业，关税政策调整后，美国老客户直接下单 30 万双袜子， 企业开足马力生产。 特朗普（资料图） 不仅如此，美线航运也迎来反弹，多家货代公司表示，5 月底发货的船只舱位接近满舱，部分船公司还 上调了运价。这一系列现象表明，中美关税大幅下调后，美国市场对中国商品的需求瞬间被点燃 ...

这也成为了消费端的潜在隐患。美国商务部称，4月份零售额仅增长0.1%，较3月份1.7%的飙升相比大幅回落。在关税提高之前，美国人急于购买新车和其 他进口商品，之后人们开始对贸易战将如何发展持谨慎态度。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，消费者越来越担心关税的经济影响，未来一年的通胀预期上升至 1981年以来的最高水平。通胀预期的持续上升增加了美联储短期内保持利率稳定的可能性。 富国银行首席经济学家布拉德（Sam Bullard）则在报告中写道，近几个月来，消费者支出有所放缓，但尚未达到与情绪恶化相匹配的水平。需要注意的 是，消费者在未来几个月的行为将说明问题。 不过，劳动力市场依然稳定，雇主正在努力应对特朗普贸易政策的不确定性。美国劳工部表示，上周初请失业金人数22.9万，环比持平，仍处于年内低位。 受到广泛关注的有关政府裁员的影响，暂时没有体现在数据中。 施瓦茨表示，消费者越来越担心关税的经济影响，未来一年的通胀预期上升至1981年以来的最高水平。 上周美股迎来强劲反弹，标普500指数以五连阳收复年内失地，中美日内瓦经贸会谈提振市场信心。然而，种种迹象 ...

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed should lower interest rates sooner rather than later, indicating a consensus among many [1] - Powell stated that Trump's calls for rate cuts do not influence the Fed's decisions, emphasizing that the appropriateness of rate cuts depends on various economic conditions [2] - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the third time, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a rebound in import prices for April, while consumer confidence remains low due to concerns over Trump's trade policies [3] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have diminished, with Goldman Sachs pushing back its forecast for a rate cut from July to December [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payments, with a stable outlook [3][4] Group 3 - Moody's projected that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, indicating limited budget flexibility [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a projected deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion for the first half of the fiscal year [4] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that ongoing tariff policies will increase economic uncertainty, potentially leading to higher inflation and unemployment rates [5] - The U.S. has lost its Aaa rating from all three major international credit rating agencies, including Fitch and S&P [6]

在通胀预期方面，消费者预期未来一年价格将以7.3%的年增速上涨，为1981年以来最高水平；而对未 来5至10年的年均通胀预期也上升至4.6%，创1991年以来新高。 此次调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，恰逢中美达成临时协议，同意在贸易谈判期间暂时互相减 少部分关税。然而，即便如此，密歇根大学消费者调查主管Joanne Hsu指出："临时的暂停并不足以让 消费者相信贸易政策已趋于稳定，从而放心地进行长期消费或投资规划。" 数据显示，接近四分之三的受访者自发提及关税问题，显示贸易政策持续成为消费者经济预期的关键影 响因素。这一担忧跨越党派界线，甚至有大量共和党支持者也表达了类似的忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，美国密歇根大学公布的最新数据显示，美国5月消费者信心指数意外下滑至50.8， 不仅低于4月的52.2，也创下历史第二低水平，仅高于2022年6月创下的最低纪录。这一结果低于外媒对 经济学家调查中几乎所有的预期值，凸显出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪。 尽管消费者对物价上涨的忧虑加剧，近期通胀数据却呈现出放缓迹象。美国政府公布的数据显示，4月 份扣除食品和能源后的核心消费者价格指数连续第三个月涨幅低于预期，表 ...

金十数据5月16日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，消费者信心指数本月基本持平，在 连续四个月大幅下滑后，仅微跌1.4点。自2025年1月以来，市场信心下降了近30%。近四分之三的消费 者自发提到了关税，高于4月份的近60%；贸易政策的不确定性继续主导着消费者对经济的看法。此次 调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，在中美双双宣布暂停征收部分关税的两天后结束。在暂时降低 关税后，许多调查指标显示出一些改善迹象，但这些最初的好转幅度太小，不足以改变整体形势——消 费者继续对经济持悲观看法。到目前为止，最初的反应与4月9日部分暂停关税后的情绪小幅上升相呼 应，尽管情绪继续呈下降趋势。 5月美国消费者信心微跌，此前连续四个月大幅下跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant consensus reached between China and the United States regarding tariff adjustments, which is expected to positively impact bilateral trade and stimulate economic growth for both nations [1][3][4] - The adjustment of tariffs is seen as a crucial step not only for China and the U.S. but also for global economic stability, as it may influence other countries, including vulnerable economies [3][6] - Canada's response to the U.S.-China agreement indicates a potential shift in its trade policy towards China, suggesting that Canada may seek dialogue to resolve trade issues [4][6][9] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that the trade policy adjustments between China and the U.S. could have a ripple effect on international trade dynamics, necessitating Canada to reassess its trade stance and approach towards China [6][8] - The successful negotiations between China and the U.S. are framed as a model for other nations, encouraging a rational and long-term perspective in trade policy formulation [3][9] - The overall context suggests that the adjustments in trade relations are not merely bilateral events but are interconnected within the framework of global economic interdependence, highlighting the importance of cooperation and dialogue among nations [8][9]