瑞银调查显示，35%的受访者认为，美国可能会要求盟友将较长期债务转换为超长期零息债券等其他工 具。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 政府债务周度观察 三季度地方债计划发行 2.7 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 政府债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）6714 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 7.7 万亿，超出去年同期 4.3 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5905 亿，第 27 周 （6/30-7/6）2574 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）广义赤字累计 5.9 万 亿，进度 50.1%。 国债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）净融资 1110 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）1999 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 3.4 万亿，进度 50.8%。 地方债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5604 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.5 万亿。 新增一般债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）572 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7 ...

Group 1 - The ADP non-farm data showed a surprising decline, recording a negative growth of 33,000 jobs in June, which was below the expected increase of 98,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023. This has heightened concerns about the weakening labor market [2] - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations rising to a reduction of approximately 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 63 basis points previously [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for precious metals, as inflation and economic slowdown are expected to persist, making it likely for gold and silver prices to continue rising [1][2] Group 2 - Asset management firm abrdn suggests that the current global debt levels justify a new normal for gold prices above $3,000, as the U.S. debt has surpassed $37 trillion and European spending has increased [3] - Sprott's senior partner indicates that rising government debt is creating sovereign risks for the global economy, leading investors to seek hard assets like gold and silver. There is an expectation that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce during the summer [4]

以下文章来源于凤凰网财经 ，作者风暴眼 凤凰网财经 . 你好，我们是凤凰网财经，全球华人都在看的财经公众号，传播最有价值的财经报道，你值得关注！欢 迎访问：http://finance.ifeng.com/ 6月30日，一则核数师"非标报"引爆香江。 香港大佬杨受成旗下英皇国际166亿港元银行借贷逾期，德勤对其持续经营能力亮出红灯，"可能对其持续 经营能力构成重大疑问"。 利空消息迅速引发市场剧烈反应，投资者用脚投票。 英皇国际股价当日一度暴跌超15%，尽管尾盘跌幅收窄至11.76%，但市值已缩水至仅11.58 亿港元，这一数 字甚至不足其债务总额的零头。 更具连锁效应的是英皇系个股的集体重挫。 截至港股收盘，英皇钟表珠宝跌8.33%，英皇娱乐酒店跌5.26%，英皇资本暴跌18.18%，英皇文化产业，跌 幅亦达 14.89%，整个资本版图在市场的寒意中震荡不已。 而英皇国际债务危机爆发的本质与近几年杨受成的战略方向有关。 01 亏损扩大一倍多 这场风暴的导火索，源于英皇国际的2025财年业绩公告。 财报里藏着两个平行世界。报告期内，公司总收入同比增长41.5%至13.76亿港元。但连同来自不再持续经营 业务， ...

美元，跌势不止！ 近期，美元持续下挫。7月1日，美元指数最低下探至96.37，创2022年2月下旬以来新低；7月2日，美元指数微 幅上涨；7月3日早盘，美元又继续下跌，截至记者发稿时，美元指数下跌0.10%报96.69。 刚刚过去的上半年，美元指数暴跌10.8%，创下半个多世纪以来最差半年度表现。据了解，美元上一次出现如 此大幅度贬值，是在1973年上半年（跌幅为14.8%）。 尽管关于美元即将失去储备货币地位的猜测仍然牵强，全面"去美元化"还有很长一段路要走，但美国政府增长 的债务可能会显著加剧这一风险。贝莱德认为，美国政府债务处于危险境况；如果任其发展，债务将是美国在 金融市场拥有的"特殊地位"面临的最大单一风险。 目前，美国国会正在讨论一项关键的税收和支出法案，即特朗普所谓的"大而美法案"——这是特朗普本届经济 议程的一个关键要素。据无党派分析机构估计，这项法案将在未来10年使美国联邦政府本已超过36万亿美元的 债务再额外增加5万亿美元。 贝莱德表示，政府债务增加可能降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的相关性，不过贝莱德预 计，即使美联储降息，美债收益率仍将上升。在美国政府债券供应增加的同时， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data growth reflects a stable and practical monetary policy, with significant support for the real economy [1][2][4] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, showing an increase compared to the end of March [2][3] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, indicating a strong credit support for the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, contributing significantly to the social financing scale, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan [2][3] - The M2 money supply reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, supported by low base effects and changes in financial data [3][4] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, and for personal housing loans, it was about 3.1%, both lower than the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [4][5] Group 3 - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.9% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.5%, both outpacing other loan categories [5] - The proportion of loans to the manufacturing sector has increased from 5.1% to 9.3% from the end of 2020 to the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift in credit allocation towards manufacturing and innovation [5] - The overall financial data suggests that the monetary policy measures have effectively boosted market confidence, supporting the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the effectiveness of debt replacement policies in alleviating local government debt risks, with over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds issued by the end of May, achieving over 80% of the annual target of 2 trillion yuan [1][2] - The issuance of replacement bonds has led to a significant reduction in hidden debts, with more than 170 regions declaring "full clearance" of hidden debts, and some areas experiencing a decrease in the average cost of financing by 71 basis points [1][2] - The introduction of special bonds for land reserves has also contributed to debt alleviation, with over 1.2 trillion yuan of these bonds issued, although the actual issuance may differ from publicized figures [3][4] Group 2 - The exit of local government financing platforms has accelerated, with 72 city investment companies announcing their withdrawal from government debt financing roles in the first five months of the year [2][3] - Experts suggest that the issuance of special bonds should be expedited to improve the relationship between land supply and demand, and to support the transformation of city investment companies [3][4] - There is a need for continuous optimization of debt alleviation measures, with expectations for an increase in the issuance of special government bonds in the second half of the year to support key areas such as technology innovation and environmental protection [4][5]

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is experiencing an unprecedented debt crisis, with rising government debts and increasing repayment risks, particularly in the US and Japan, while China remains relatively stable but faces challenges [1][22]. US Debt Situation - As of the end of May, the total federal debt in the US reached $36.2 trillion, with local government debt around $4 trillion, totaling over $40 trillion [3]. - The US debt market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a recent $720 billion bond auction failing, prompting the Federal Reserve to purchase over $40 billion in bonds in a month [8]. - The yield on US Treasury bonds has surged from approximately 0.5% in 2020 to 4.4% currently, leading to an increase in interest payments, which could reach $1.1 trillion from 2020 to 2024 [6][8]. Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,323 trillion yen (approximately $9.2 trillion), accounting for 219% of its GDP, which is significantly higher than other major economies [13]. - The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, which involved unlimited bond purchases, was halted last year, leading to a decline in bond prices and rising credit risks [14]. China's Debt Challenges - As of May, China's government debt stood at 88.1 trillion yuan (approximately $12.3 trillion), representing 65% of its GDP, with a significant amount of hidden debt, particularly in local government financing [17][18]. - The Chinese government has implemented a 10 trillion yuan plan to address local government debt and has been reducing interest rates to lower repayment costs [18]. Conclusion on Global Economic Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming more apparent, providing China with an opportunity to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and establish a more equitable international economic order [22].

Core Viewpoint - The debt restructuring progress of several large real estate companies has accelerated, with significant support from creditors, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring Progress - As of June 30, 75% of the creditors of Country Garden and Sunac have joined the restructuring support agreement, signaling a positive trend in debt resolution [1][2]. - Other companies such as Longfor, CIFI, Shimao, and Yuanyang have also made notable advancements in their debt restructuring efforts [1][6]. - The restructuring plans of CIFI and Shimao have received court approval, while Agile aims to finalize its restructuring plan by the end of 2025 [4][8]. Group 2: Company-Specific Updates - Country Garden reported that it has secured support from creditors representing over 75% of its outstanding public notes and aims to finalize the restructuring by the end of 2025 [2][7]. - Sunac announced that its restructuring support agreement has also garnered 75% creditor participation, with a court hearing scheduled for September 15, 2025 [3][7]. - Longfor has introduced an optimized domestic debt restructuring plan covering 21 bonds with a total principal balance of 21.962 billion, incorporating various options for creditors [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The acceleration of debt restructuring among major real estate firms suggests a potential stabilization in the market, as companies actively engage with creditors to resolve outstanding debts [1][6]. - The positive outcomes from these restructuring efforts may enhance the financial stability of these companies, allowing them to maintain operations and improve cash flow management [2][5].

Core Points - The Senate passed Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a narrow vote of 51-50, aided by Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote, despite opposition from three Republican senators [1] - Critics argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy while harming the poorest Americans, with Senator Bernie Sanders labeling it a "gift to billionaires" [1][2] - The bill's passage in the Senate requires further approval from the House of Representatives before it can be signed into law by the President [1][5] Group 1: Opposition from Republican Senators - Senator Susan Collins from Maine opposed the bill due to cuts to Medicaid, which would significantly reduce funding by $5.9 billion over the next decade, affecting healthcare access for approximately 400,000 residents [2] - Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina expressed concerns that the bill would jeopardize health insurance for 600,000 residents in his state [2] - Senator Rand Paul, a proponent of controlling government spending, criticized the bill for increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and projected a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade [4] Group 2: Impact on Taxation - The bill is expected to provide significant tax breaks to high-income earners, with approximately 60% of tax reductions benefiting individuals earning $217,000 or more, while low-income families earning $35,000 or less would see an average tax cut of only $150 [4] - The Democratic opposition has framed the bill as "robbing the poor to give to the rich," highlighting the adverse effects on low-income Americans [4] Group 3: Legislative Process and Challenges - The House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority, previously passed the bill with a narrow margin and is now faced with the Senate's modified version, which may face resistance from some House Republicans [5] - The House Rules Committee has moved to advance the Senate version for a full vote, with potential delays due to weather-related travel issues affecting some members [5] - President Trump has been actively engaging with dissenting Republican senators in an effort to secure support for the bill [5] Group 4: Elon Musk's Criticism - Elon Musk has publicly criticized the "Big and Beautiful" bill, arguing that it increases government spending and supports declining industries while undermining future sectors [7] - Trump's threats to expel Musk from the U.S. have drawn significant media attention, although legal experts suggest that such actions would be difficult to implement given Musk's citizenship status [7][8]