| 粕类产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 朱迪 Z0015979 2025年7月9日 | | | | 豆粕 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | 现价 2800 2800 0 0.00% 江苏豆粕 | | | | 期价 M2509 2935 2937 -2 -0.07% | | | | 基差 M2509 -135 -137 2 1.46% | | | | 现货基差报价 广东现货基差 m2509-150 m2509-150 - - | | | | 盘面进口榨利 美湾船期 - - - - | | | | 33 17 ાર 94.1% 盘面进口榨利 巴西9月船期 | | | | 仓单 42250 40280 1970 4.9% | | | | 菜相 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 张跃幅 | | | | 现价 江苏菜粕 2480 2500 -20 -0.80% | | | | 期价 RM2509 2576 2579 -3 -0.12% | | | | RM2509 -de -79 -17 -21.52% ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the apple industry: Neutral [4] - Investment rating for the red date industry: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple market: The overall apple spot market has slow sales, with prices remaining stable. The current inventory is low, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The new - season late - maturing Fuji acquisition price may be higher than last year. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [2][3][4] - Red date market: The red date futures closed higher. The production area shows no obvious signs of reduction. The arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The market is in the off - season, with slow inventory digestion. The new - season red dates are in the fruiting stage, and the growth situation during this period may bring market opportunities. Weather conditions need to be closely monitored [7] Group 3: Summary by Section Apple - Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,733 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.08% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day [1] Apple - Recent Market Information - Spot market: The overall sales are slow, with prices remaining stable. The enthusiasm of cold - storage merchants in the production area to purchase goods is average. The early - maturing fruits are mainly from Dali and Yuncheng, with limited supply and little impact on the market. The remaining supply in the western production area is small, and inventory holders mainly distribute goods to the market themselves. In Shandong, the supply is mainly for the market, and the prices of some goods have slightly decreased due to quality issues. The sales in the sales area are average, affected by summer - cooling fruits [2] Apple - Market Analysis - Futures price: Slightly declined yesterday. The market is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales. The remaining supply in the western production area is small, and the sales pressure is low. The bagging work has ended, and attention should be paid to the actual bagging data [3] - Production area: In the traditional sales off - season, affected by summer - cooling fruits, there is pressure on apple inventory reduction. The large - sized apples account for a large proportion of the remaining supply. The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, and the acquisition price of new - season late - maturing Fuji may be higher than last year. The sales in the Gansu production area have slowed down, and the remaining supply is mainly in the hands of large fruit companies and large storage merchants. The Shanxi and Henan production areas have basically cleared their inventories. The Liaoning production area has a small amount of remaining supply [3] - Sales area: The number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market has decreased. Affected by summer - cooling fruits, the sales of apples are slow, and the terminal consumption has slightly slowed down [3] Apple - Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The current inventory is low, providing price support. Short - term prices are expected to remain stable [4] Red Date - Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 10,450 yuan/ton, a change of + 35 yuan/ton or + 0.34% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5] Red Date - Recent Market Information - Production area: The main production area of Xinjiang gray dates is in the growth period, and farmers are actively managing their orchards. The dates are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, and the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers in some orchards is average. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting of the second - crop flowers and weather changes [6] - Sales area: In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 2 trucks of dates arrived, with prices slightly decreasing. The market is in the off - season, and the actual demand has not yet emerged. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of dates arrived, and some high - quality dates were actively purchased by merchants [6] Red Date - Market Analysis - Futures price: Closed higher yesterday. There is no obvious sign of production reduction in the production area. The arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The market is in the off - season, with slow inventory digestion and inventory levels higher than the same period last year. The new - season red dates are in the fruiting stage, and the growth situation during this period may bring market opportunities. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather conditions [7] Red Date - Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although there are potential weather disturbances and both futures and spot prices are at historical lows, the market is in the off - season, with a light trading atmosphere and high inventory. The long - short game is expected to intensify, and caution is needed when going long [8]

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本周，玉米 | 9 | 月期价先涨后跌。周初，进口玉米拍卖溢价成交，现货市场强势表 | 现对玉米期价提供支撑，但 | 9 | 月合约在周三早盘平开之后减仓调整，期价遇阻技 | | | | | | | 术承压，价格回落。现货市场方面，进口玉米拍卖政策持续影响市场。市场反馈， | 进口玉米拍卖多溢价成交对东北产区玉米价格暂无明显影响，产区报价依然较为 | | | | | | | | | | | 坚挺。东北玉米价格目前相对稳定，贸易商出货积极性略有提高，但成交情况相 | 对一般。华北地区玉米价格整体稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业早间 | | | | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡 | 玉米到货量有所减少，企业根据自身到货情况价格窄幅调整。基层余粮同比偏少， | | | | | | | | | | 贸易商挺价意愿较强。销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。7 | 月 | 1 | 日进口玉米 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 棉价走势震荡偏强，郑糖跟随外盘小幅回落 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13805元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15136元/吨，较前一日变动-51元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-111；3128B棉全国均价15163元/吨， 较前一日变动-49元/吨，现货基差CF09+1358，较前一日变动-109。 近期市场资讯，印度棉花协会(CAI)最新报告显示，截至2025年5月31日，CAI评估印度棉花2024/25年度棉花平衡 表，与上月评估相比产量上调17万吨，进口上调10万吨，需求下调3万吨，出口上调3万吨，期末库存上调27万吨。 与上一年度比较，期初库存增加2万吨，产量减45万吨，进口增加40万吨，国内需求调减14万吨，出口减少19万吨， 期末库存增加31万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应 ...

生猪暴涨，政策引导养殖端去产能、降体重提振市场信心，月初 集团猪企出栏计划偏少，散户猪场跟风惜售，各地猪价上涨，推动生 猪期价暴涨，后市或持续强势特征。玉米大跌，小麦替代效应以及进 口玉米拍卖预期压制行情走低，多头平仓推动期价大幅下跌，后市料 偏弱运行。油脂强势上行，美生柴政策再传利好，推动美豆油走高， 带动国内植物油板块全线走高。豆粕走跌，油厂压榨量峰值，供应压 力令豆粕承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）生猪：暴涨 焦点关注：生猪 2509 合约突现暴涨，受到各地现货猪价全面走 高的提振： 1.政策引导养殖端去产能、降体重等信号进一步提振市场信心， 集团猪企月初出栏计划偏少，缩量拉涨积极性较高，散户猪场跟风惜 售，市场适重标猪供应减量，二育前期中大猪陆续出清后，二育再次 进入集中补栏阶段，支持猪价上涨。但需求掣肘压力依然存在。 2.生猪主力 2509 合约突现暴涨，触及近三个月新高，期价站上 均线系统， MACD 红柱放大，技术转强。策略上空单平仓，逢低轻仓 多单，生猪主力 2509 合约支撑 14025，阻力 14400 生猪暴涨、玉米大跌 （二）玉米：大幅下跌 一、农产品板块综述 1.小麦上市后饲用替 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 厂 GF FUTUR | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 8240 | 8240 | 0.00% | 0 | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | -12 | 7972 | 7984 | -0.15% | 期价 | | 268 | 基差 | Y2509 | 256 | 12 | 4.69% | 现货墓差报价 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 江苏6月 | O | - | | 仓单 | 20582 | 20582 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 7月1日 | 涨跌幅 | 张跃 | 8430 | 8400 | 0.36% | 广东24 ...

软商品调整、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 USDA 公布的报告显示,美国旧作大豆库存略超市场预期,美豆 面积略低于预期,报告中性偏空,连豆粕震荡收阴,国内6月大豆压 榨量突破千万吨,豆粕供应充足,粕价承压。美国棉花播种面积远高 于市场预期,美棉期价大跌,带动郑棉调整,但国内棉花商业库存下 降,新棉上市前供应偏紧预期支撑棉价高位运行。郑糖受外盘下挫的 带动而回落,进口糖放量预期亦令郑糖承压。红枣强势上行,新疆高 温天气令新季红枣减产预期大增,助推红枣持续上涨。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕: 震荡收阴,窄幅波动 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约震荡收阴,窄幅波动,美国农业部播 种面积报告符合市场预期,对行情影响有限: 1. 美国农业部报告显示,2025年美国大豆播种面积 8338万英 亩,低于 3月份预测的 8349.5万英亩,比上年同期减少 4.2%,略低 于市场预期。季度库存报告显示,截至6月1日美国大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳,高于市场的预期,比去年同期增长 3.9%,有偏空影 响。 目前国内进口大豆充沛,6月全国油厂大豆压榨量突破 1000万 吨,7月份大豆到港同样庞大,高压榨将延续千万吨级别,豆粕 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | | | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空。美豆种 | | | | 植面积环比小幅下降，季度库存高于预期，隔夜美豆下跌。整体数据影响有限。市 | | | | 场继续围绕基本面波动。豆粕日内反弹有限，震荡整理为主。主力【2950，2980】 | | | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | 菜粕 | | 用。周末加拿大菜籽种植面积报告出炉，2150 ...