Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, reaching a historic high of over $3,550 per ounce, driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of 8 PM Beijing time, international gold prices were reported at $3,541 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.72% [1] - London spot gold prices were reported at $3,469 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 0.6% [1] - In August, international gold prices experienced a cumulative increase of over 5%, marking the best monthly performance since April of this year [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened market risk aversion and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential decision to cut interest rates [1] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 89.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points in September [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent increase in gold prices is influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and rising physical gold demand in China [1][3] - As of September 1, the Shanghai gold spot price was reported at 795.38 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.18 yuan compared to the futures price of 800.56 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness with non-farm employment figures falling short of market expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [2] Group 2 - The latest PCE and core PCE data from the U.S. met market expectations, indicating persistent inflation but limited impact from tariff shocks, which has raised market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut [3] - The demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November last year, continuing for eight consecutive months [1] - The geopolitical risks have slightly diminished, but the market's demand for safe-haven assets remains, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [1][3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation, led by Li Chenggang, visited Canada from August 24 to 27 to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee, aiming to enhance bilateral economic relations [1] - The EU Commission proposed two legislative measures to implement the joint statement on tariffs with the US, which includes the reduction of tariffs on EU automotive products and the elimination of certain tariffs on US industrial goods [2] Group 2: Market Insights - Non-farm employment data has contradicted the Federal Reserve's assertion of a strong job market, significantly increasing expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - The market is currently betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the core CPI reaching a new high since February, which has reduced the probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] - Factors such as a likely rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, easing global trade tensions, and continued central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices [2] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, contributing to increased investor risk aversion and supporting gold price increases [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]

8月28日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为783.12元/克，涨幅0.20%，沪银主力 报价为9375.00元/千克，涨幅0.54%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价3449.80元/盎司，跌幅 0.06%，COMEX白银报价39.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.71%。 英伟达财报未公布前，美股处于高度紧张的观望状态，基准股指盘中冲高后遭遇抛售，纳指一度翻绿， 随后买盘涌入转涨但收盘前卖压再现。三大股指均收涨，标普收创新高。盘后英伟达财报显示数据中心 收入逊色，本季指引不够亮眼，股价盘后一度下挫5%。市场避险情绪升温，一定程度上支撑黄金走 势。 【盘面分析】 8月27日，COMEX黄金盘中先跌后涨，报收3451.8美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上 行，报收784.16元/克，涨幅0.33%。后续来看，今日晚间美国将发布2季度GDP数据，关注实际数据与 预期值的差异，若大幅低于预期，金价或在避险情绪支撑下进一步反弹。 【消息面】 特朗普于当地时间周二表示，他已准备好与美联储理事库克展开法律斗争；他已经考虑了一些"非常好 的人"来接替库克的位置；很快将在美联储理事会中拥有" ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting potential further gains in the short term [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the politicization of the Fed, threatening its independence and credibility in monetary policy [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing pressure at the $3401 level, with a potential short-term upward movement followed by a decline [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth, indicating a likely downward trend [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [3] - The International Energy Agency's latest report suggests that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [3] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising the surplus expectation to 1.64 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term rebounds likely [5] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may face resistance at the $4.43 level in the near term [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [6] - The index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with expectations of new lows in the short term [6] - Resistance is noted at the 42550 level for the index [6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting a potential short-term upward trend for gold [2] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the political influence on the Fed, threatening its independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a minor upward structure on the hourly chart, but faces pressure at the key level of $3401 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, making it difficult to reverse the current downtrend due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [4] - The International Energy Agency's latest report indicates that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [4] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising expectations of a supply surplus to 1.64 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis shows that oil has formed a minor upward structure on the daily chart, but the potential for a downward ABC pattern is significant, with short-term pressure at $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term resistance at $4.43 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment, with potential new lows expected [6] - Technical analysis suggests that the index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with short-term resistance at 42550 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Trump's firing of a Federal Reserve governor, which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Following the news, gold prices initially fell but later rose, with COMEX gold futures closing up 0.55% at $3451.80 per ounce [1] - The New York Fed's Williams emphasized the potential for interest rate cuts, contingent on upcoming data, adding uncertainty to the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 2 - Recent weak employment data and dovish comments from Powell suggest that the upcoming PCE data will be crucial in determining the Fed's direction [1] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve from Trump's actions may amplify the impact of inflation data, potentially increasing market volatility and demand for gold as a hedge [1] - If the PCE data leans dovish, gold prices could experience a new wave of upward momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of a Federal Reserve governor by Trump has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially fell but later rose, with COMEX gold futures closing up 0.55% at $3,451.80 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.04%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) dropped by 4.15% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, stating that any decision will depend on upcoming data before the September 16-17 meeting [1] - Recent weak employment data and dovish comments from Powell suggest that the PCE data will be crucial in determining the Fed's direction [1] Group 3: Implications for Gold - The pressure on the Federal Reserve from Trump's actions may amplify the impact of inflation data, potentially increasing market volatility [1] - If legal disputes escalate, market risk aversion could rise, boosting demand for gold as a hedging tool, especially if PCE data is dovish, which may lead to a new wave of gold price increases [1]

huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 27 日，万得全 A 低开后震荡上行，午后大幅跳水，收跌 1.74%，超 4700 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别 下跌 1.49%、1.73%、1.46%、1.87%。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 1.46%、1.70%、1.14%、1.73%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计 算）。 | | | 1.2 后市展望 ...