Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,827, with investors believing there is still a chance to reach 24,000-24,200 points, although some are starting to deploy bearish options due to concerns of a short-term peak [1] - The index shows limited short-term upward movement and is near significant resistance levels at 24,000 and 24,100 [1] Company Analysis Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) - CATL closed at 337.4 HKD, with investors speculating whether it can challenge 350 HKD in the short term [3] - The stock has shown strong momentum, and despite being newly listed, it has seen significant trading volume, surpassing major blue-chip stocks [3] Geely Automobile Holdings Limited - Geely closed at 20.35 HKD, maintaining an upward trend with a strong buy signal [6] - The stock is approaching resistance at 20.8 HKD, with a significant support level at 20.3 HKD [6] Bilibili Inc. - Bilibili closed at 146 HKD, with investors questioning if 150 HKD is a major resistance level [9] - The stock is in a sideways trend but is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level identified at 155.8 HKD [9] Trip.com Group Limited - Trip.com closed at 500 HKD, with investors considering whether to enter at a low of 491 HKD [11] - Key support levels are at 481.9 HKD and 471 HKD, with active trading in bull and bear certificates [11] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited - The stock closed at 391.6 HKD, with investors asking if it can challenge 400-410 HKD in the short term [14] - The stock is showing a strong buy signal, with resistance levels at 399 HKD and 401 HKD, and a second resistance at 425 HKD [14]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 总 量 研 究 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：保险板块长时间震荡回落，调整较为充分。短线技术条件逐渐向好，或已走出 下降趋势。指数在震荡调整过程中，大单资金活跃。下方支撑较多，回落空间小，上涨空 间大。 ➢ 风险提示：技术分析是对已有的行情进行统计、归纳、分析，是从当前市场量、价、线、 形、位多个角度进行多空力量对比，是对稳定条件下的市场情绪进行的判断预估，是对之 前的行情运行规律进行的总结、应用。当市场突发较大的政治、经济、军事、自然灾害及 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6. 《证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is currently a focal point in the market, showing strong short-term rebounds but indicating weakening long-term momentum, suggesting a cyclical adjustment may be underway [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, comprising 30% of the S&P 500 Index, typically leads market movements, both in bullish and bearish phases [1]. - The recent strong rebound in the XLK ETF since April has led to a successful breakout above its 200-day moving average, signaling short-term positivity [3][5]. - However, the monthly MACD has shown a bearish crossover, marking the first "sell" signal since early 2022, indicating a potential price adjustment lasting at least six months [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Technology Select Sector SPDR is currently in a long-term uptrend but is facing upward pressure due to diminishing momentum, suggesting that the recent rebound may stall [5]. - A supply zone exists between $228 and $241, where the XLK ETF previously experienced narrow fluctuations, indicating a potential halt in the current rebound [5]. - The relative strength of XLK compared to the S&P 500 has recently increased, indicating superior performance during the market rebound, but this may be a temporary trend [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite entering a technical bear market phase, a long-term bullish outlook is anticipated to re-emerge around 2026 [3]. - The current relative strength of technology stocks is likely to be more of a counter-trend nature, suggesting limited sustainability moving forward [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,345 points, with investors considering the index's strength if it holds between 22,800 and 23,000 points. The past three days showed a volatility of 3%, making it challenging for derivative investors due to the lack of clear direction. The index is in a balanced state from April 23 to 30, with no significant change in the upward trend, although technical signals are not as strong as before. The support level is at 22,400 points, and the resistance level is at 23,800 points [1]. Group 2: Company Analysis - NetEase (09999) closed at 190 HKD, with strong buying signals indicated by 18 buy signals and only 2 sell signals. The stock has broken through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the next resistance level at 213.9 HKD [3]. - Alibaba (09988) closed at 123.4 HKD, showing a weaker performance with a significant drop. However, it has not yet breached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 118.9 HKD. The support level is at 115 HKD, with a total of 14 buy signals and 6 sell signals, leaning towards a bullish outlook [5]. - China Mobile (00941) closed at 85.8 HKD, with a positive trend as it broke through the daily chart's top. The closing price is just above the top, indicating further upward potential. The resistance levels are at 87.5 HKD and 87 HKD [8]. - CanSino Biologics (9926) closed at 83.5 HKD, having fallen from 105 HKD. The stock remains below the Bollinger Bands, with 9 sell signals despite a primary buy signal. Key support levels are at 73.4 HKD and 75.8 HKD [11]. - Meituan (03690) closed at 131.4 HKD, with concerns about maintaining the 130 HKD level. The stock is on a downward trend, with support levels at 124.5 HKD and 126 HKD [14].

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月16日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：证券板块指数在近日的震荡盘升中短线技术条件明显修复。短线虽仍处头肩底 形态内，尚未突破颈线位，也尚未突破60日均线，仍或因多空争夺而震荡。但指数下方大 单资金介入较深，下方支撑位较多，回落空间相对小。而若指数有效突破头肩底颈线位， 或相比于2015年5月的前期高点，指数上行空间较大。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

在2025年5月9日提及的吉利汽車(00175)相關衍生產品表現亮眼，其中瑞銀認購證15942兩日後升幅達8%，跑贏正股同期1.74%的升幅；滙豐認購證16184亦 錄得6%升幅，而花旗牛證68585則上漲7%，反映市場資金積極部署吉利短線升勢，槓桿產品表現明顯優於正股。 吉利汽車(00175)同樣將於日內公佈業績，截止11點43分，最新價報19.54港元，單日升幅達2.09%，盤中曾高見19.66元，創52周新高。成交量顯示資金持續 流入。技術指標方面，RSI升至69，接近超買區，但「強力買入」信號仍佔主導，MACD、保利加通道及一目均衡表均發出買入訊號，顯示短線仍有上行動 支持位與阻力位分析 支持位方面，首個關鍵位在17.6元，第二支持位15.5元；阻力位則看19.9元，突破後有望挑戰22.1元。10天線(17.88元)已升穿30天線(16.51元)，形成黃金交 叉，短線趨勢偏強。 窩輪方面，滙豐認購證29483行使價19.64元，槓桿7倍，適合看好吉利突破阻力位的投資者；花旗認購證28798行使價19.5元，引伸波幅最低，槓桿6.34倍， 成本效益較高。牛證方面，瑞銀牛證54535收回價16.1元，溢價 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "practice makes perfect" is defined as finding a logical and practical approach that can consistently succeed [1] - Investment is viewed broadly, encompassing all legal means of making money, rather than just stock trading [2] - The journey of investment is continuous, with each stage representing a version of improvement, akin to software updates [1][3] Group 2 - Many investors have experienced a long learning curve, with some taking over a decade to stabilize their investment strategies [4][5] - The importance of risk management and disciplined execution is emphasized, with some investors reporting significant improvements in their returns after adopting these principles [7] - The sentiment that investment strategies are constantly evolving and require ongoing learning is prevalent among investors [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the release of the China - US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have materialized, and the market is still in an emotional state. The new US tariffs on China have been reduced from 165% to 50%, which, although still high, restarts trade and leaves room for future negotiations. After the short - term bullish factors are exhausted, the market will return to fundamental logic after the emotional release [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets due to the increasing supply surplus expectation under OPEC+ continuous accelerated production. Unless there is an Iranian geopolitical risk, the current stage of crude oil rally is expected to end. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It opened high and closed low today, testing the medium - term pressure level of WTI $63. If it fails to break through, it will test the support at 460. - Strategy: Hold short positions (non - right - hand side). Wait for the anti - package pattern as a signal to short again, with the stop - loss referring to the hourly high at 22:00 last night [4][5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a limit - up with increased positions today, and the short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe [9]. (3) PX - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [10]. (4) PTA - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. (5) PP - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded with reduced positions today, broke through the pressure/stop - profit level, and is considered to have a short - term trend reversal. The new short - term support refers to today's low. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions and then observe [17]. (6) Urea - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term support refers to the low on May 8th. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities based on the reversal pattern above the short - term support [18][21]. (7) Methanol - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today and remained below the upper limit of the previous range. - Strategy: Observe mainly on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Rubber - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It opened high and closed low today, falling back after reaching the upper limit of the oscillating range. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8th. - Strategy: The general idea is to short at high levels, but observe mainly on the hourly cycle under the current oscillating structure [26]. (9) Caustic Soda - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased positions and rose today, with opportunities for long positions based on the reversal pattern, but the strategy has not prompted recently. - Strategy: Observe mainly [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had an oscillating market today, and the short - term support temporarily refers to the 4200 level. - Strategy: Observe due to the divergence between medium - term and short - term trends [31]. (11) Plastic - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and rose in the late session with reduced positions, and the sustainability is questionable. The short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [32][34].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing effective trading tools to achieve profitability in a competitive financial market. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers a variety of powerful trading tools and technical support to help investors identify market opportunities and develop sound trading strategies for asset growth. Group 1: Market Analysis Tools - ZFX Shan Hai Securities provides various technical analysis tools, including moving averages (MA), MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, to help traders capture market fluctuations. For instance, a short-term moving average crossing above a long-term moving average indicates a potential upward trend, suggesting a bullish entry point [3] - The MACD golden cross signals potential upward movement, while the death cross indicates possible downward opportunities. Combining these indicators can assist traders in accurately determining entry points [3] Group 2: Risk Management - Effective risk control is essential for trading success, and ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers automatic stop-loss and take-profit features. Traders can set stop-loss points at 1-2% below the entry price to minimize losses during market reversals [4] - Setting realistic profit targets based on market volatility rather than unrealistic expectations is crucial. The platform's automatic execution features enhance the scientific and disciplined nature of trading [4] Group 3: Automated Trading Strategies - ZFX Shan Hai Securities supports intelligent automated trading (EA systems), which is particularly beneficial for small traders seeking consistent profits. Traders can create or import automated programs that respond quickly to market changes, reducing emotional trading errors [5] - Strategies can be developed based on trend-following or breakout patterns, allowing for automatic opening and closing of positions when conditions are met [5] Group 4: Diversification of Assets - Investors can operate across multiple asset classes, such as forex, precious metals, commodities, and indices, on the ZFX Shan Hai Securities platform. Proper asset allocation can achieve risk diversification and reduce the impact of volatility from single trades [6] - The platform also provides asset correlation analysis tools to help traders adjust their portfolio ratios scientifically, enhancing capital efficiency [6] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - Combining technical analysis with fundamental data significantly increases the success rate of trades. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers real-time economic calendars and market news to help traders understand macroeconomic trends [7] - Key events, such as central bank interest rate decisions and non-farm payroll data, can lead to significant market movements. Utilizing the platform's resources for market predictions allows traders to position themselves effectively around critical data releases [7] Group 6: Practice and Strategy Optimization - The availability of free demo accounts on ZFX Shan Hai Securities allows traders to test strategies and hone their skills in a real market environment. Continuous simulation and optimization of trading rules can lead to a mature trading system [8] - This practice enables traders to better manage their positions and indicators, ultimately achieving stable profitability in real trading scenarios [8] Group 7: Trading Discipline and Psychology - While technical tools are essential, strong psychological resilience and discipline are fundamental to profitability. Traders should adhere to their trading plans and avoid impulsive decisions during volatile market conditions [9] - Utilizing ZFX Shan Hai Securities' risk monitoring and psychological support resources can enhance self-control, which is vital for achieving long-term profitability [9]