Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%[1] - The GDP growth rate for May is estimated at 5.6%, consistent with the previous value[1] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 1999[1] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% and communication equipment by 33.0%[1] - "Self-indulgence" consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment goods, saw growth rates of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year; manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly decline of 11.98%[1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for May was 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a marginal slowdown[2] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to slow down further due to external uncertainties and diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies[1] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down from 5.1% in April[2] - Local household unemployment improved significantly, while unemployment among migrant workers increased slightly[2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of the Middle East situation on asset prices and the current state of China's export market. Key Points and Arguments Export Market Analysis - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from April, but still showing resilience. Adjusted for fewer working days, the growth could reach 15.8% [2][3] - The trade talks between China and the US led to a temporary reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods to 10%, resulting in the release of some backlog orders [2] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, while exports to the EU and Africa increased by 14.8% and 33.3%, respectively [2] - High-tech products and equipment manufacturing, such as automobiles and general machinery, showed strong export growth, while labor-intensive products faced negative growth [2][3] - The overall export outlook remains under pressure for the year, but a diversified market strategy may mitigate the negative impacts of US tariffs [3] Impact of Middle East Turmoil - The turmoil in the Middle East has a limited direct impact on the domestic market, but it may cause short-term fluctuations and long-term structural changes [1][4] - Historical data indicates that conflicts in the Middle East have had a relatively minor effect on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with markets typically showing narrow fluctuations during such events [6] - In the short term, the impact on various industries is not significant, but prolonged conflicts could benefit sectors like resources and transportation [7][8] Credit and Economic Conditions - In May, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from April but a decrease of 3.3 billion from the previous year [9] - The decline in credit growth is attributed to local government debt replacement and weakened effective demand [9][10] - The current economic transformation suggests that excessively high credit growth is not desirable, as it may undermine the sustainability of bank support for the real economy [12] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with limited upward or downward trends in the near term [8] - Small-cap stocks have shown strong performance, but there may be a shift towards large-cap stocks in the coming weeks [13] - The overall market is anticipated to maintain a volatile yet stable trajectory, with a focus on whether trading volumes can support upward movements [13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, is likely to be a focal point for discussions but may not dominate market trends [8] - The potential for new policy financial tools to stimulate credit growth suggests that concerns about future credit expansion may be overstated [11]

Group 1 - The introduction of new policy financial tools is approaching, aimed at supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [1] - The new policy financial tools are expected to be implemented by the end of June, addressing the capital shortage for project construction [1][2] - Local governments are actively preparing for the new policy financial tools, with various meetings held to discuss project applications and financial support [2][3] Group 2 - The new policy financial tools are designed to supplement fiscal shortfalls through market mechanisms, with funding support from the central bank's PSL [3] - These tools are expected to have a strong leverage effect, potentially mobilizing more credit or social capital to enhance economic growth [3] - The anticipated scale of the new policy financial tools is around 500 billion yuan, which could leverage approximately 6 trillion to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [4]

新华财经北京6月12日电 （王媛媛）周四市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指报 3402.66点，涨0.01%，成交5016亿元；深证成指报10234.33点，跌0.11%，成交7702亿元；创业板指报 2067.15点，涨0.26%，成交3786亿元。 板块方面，美容护理、IP经济、可控核聚变、创新药等板块涨幅居前，港口航运、白酒、猪肉、煤炭等 板块跌幅居前。 盘面热点 盘面上，新消费概念股再度大涨，美容护理、IP经济等方向领涨，德艺文创等多股涨停。核电股展开反 弹，融发核电涨停。创新药概念股维持强势，海思科涨停。下跌方面，港口航运股展开调整，连云港跌 超5%。 个股跌多涨少，全市场超2800只个股下跌。 机构观点 国家发展改革委副主任李春临6月12日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从金融、技术、数据等要素赋能实 体经济的角度来看，《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》推出了深化金融 市场等改革举措，支持符合条件的香港联合交易所上市公司在深圳证券交易所发行上市存托凭证，允许 符合条件、在香港联合交易所上市且在境内注册的粤港澳大湾区企业在深圳证券交易所上市。 将在中国香港申请稳定币 ...

【行情跟踪】 机构认为，关税问题变量可能会在风险偏好层面对长端利率形成扰动；同时，7月政治局会议可能会成 为阶段性的政策观察期。预计短期债市难改小幅震荡格局，关注后续基本面数据的预期差影响。 新华财经北京6月12日电 债市周四（6月12日）重回偏弱整理，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间现券收 益率振幅在0.5BP左右震荡；公开市场单日净回笼72亿元，短端资金利率普遍延续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.07%报120.490，10年期主力合约跌0.04%报108.995，5年 期主力合约跌0.04%报106.125，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.444。 国开行3年、7年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.5380%、1.6924%，全场倍数分别为1.42、5.86，边际倍数 分别为8.82、32.5。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，6月12日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1193亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量1193亿元，中标量1193亿元。数据显示，当日1265亿元逆回购到期，据此计算， 单日净回笼72亿元。 银行间主要利率债收益率基本持稳、中短债偏弱，10年期国开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the upcoming announcement of a new type of policy financial tool, which is expected to be officially revealed soon, as local governments have already begun preparatory meetings for project applications [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools - As of June 11, 2023, 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to interpret policies and facilitate project applications for the new financial tools, aiming to seize opportunities in policy-driven development finance [2]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan (about 740 billion) in policy and development financial tools to support major project capital and bridge funding for special bond projects [2]. - The new financial tools are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2023, with local governments actively preparing for their implementation [2]. Group 2: Support Areas and Mechanisms - The new financial tools are likely to target significant projects in areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and infrastructure for consumer sectors [3]. - Local governments are focusing on specific sectors for project applications, such as industrial, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction, to align with the new financial tools [3]. - The tools are designed to address capital shortages in key project areas, with support from the central bank's policy loans (PSL) to supplement fiscal efforts [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Coordination - Key policy financial institutions, including the China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and China Export-Import Bank, are actively involved in the promotion and explanation of the new financial tools [4]. - Local governments are conducting project scheduling meetings to prepare and reserve projects ahead of the official announcement of the new tools, emphasizing the importance of timely project applications [4]. - The new financial tools are seen as crucial for leveraging social capital and expanding effective investment, with local officials urging the identification and implementation of high-quality projects [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation and preparation surrounding the upcoming announcement of a new type of policy financial tool by local governments, which is expected to enhance investment and leverage financial resources in underfunded areas [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Context - As of June 11, 2023, 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to interpret policies and facilitate project applications for the new financial tool, indicating a proactive approach to secure funding [2]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan in policy and developmental financial tools to support major projects and bridge funding gaps for special bond projects [2]. Group 2: Expected Impact and Areas of Focus - The new financial tool is anticipated to target significant projects in areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and infrastructure for consumer sectors [3]. - Local governments are focusing on specific sectors, with Anhui province planning to concentrate on industrial, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction projects [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Support Mechanisms - The new financial tool will be supported by fiscal and monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China expected to provide funding through mechanisms like the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) to address capital shortages in key projects [3]. - Major policy financial institutions, including the China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank, are actively involved in the promotion and explanation of the new tool's operational framework and eligibility criteria [4]. Group 4: Strategic Planning by Local Governments - Local governments are conducting project scheduling meetings to prepare and reserve projects ahead of the official announcement of the new tool, emphasizing the importance of seizing the application window [4]. - Officials highlight the tool's potential to mobilize social capital and expand effective investment, urging the identification and implementation of high-quality projects [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tools have been reintroduced after three years, with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and accelerating the implementation of investment projects [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - The new policy financial tools will target traditional infrastructure sectors such as urban infrastructure, water conservancy, and transportation, as well as emerging technology industries like digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy [1] - The traditional role of policy financial tools is to leverage investments, and their effectiveness in the current debt environment will depend on corporate loan issuance [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The overall fiscal policy indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing growth, with the new policy financial tools expected to have a significant impact on the economy in the second half of the year [1] - The time lag from the introduction of the new policy financial tools to their implementation is estimated to be about 1-2 months, suggesting that local government bond issuance and the acceleration of projects supported by special government bonds will increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipation for the official announcement of the "new type of policy financial tools" is building, with local governments already conducting policy interpretation and project application meetings, indicating that the official announcement is imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools Overview - Local governments in 12 provinces, including Shandong, Hunan, and Hubei, have held meetings to discuss the new policy financial tools, aiming to seize opportunities in the upcoming policy framework [1]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan (about 740 billion) in policy and development financial tools to support major project capital and bridge funding for special bond projects [1]. - The new tools are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2023, as indicated by market research institutions [1]. Group 2: Support and Funding Mechanisms - The new tools are designed to address funding gaps in key areas such as new urbanization, agriculture, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and consumer infrastructure [3]. - Historical experience suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will provide necessary support for the new tools, with a focus on using monetary policy to supplement fiscal efforts, particularly through mechanisms like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2]. - Local governments are actively planning and reserving projects to maximize the benefits of the new tools, emphasizing the importance of leveraging social capital and expanding effective investment [4]. Group 3: Project Focus and Implementation - Specific areas of focus for project applications include industrial development, cultural tourism, agriculture, and urban construction, with local governments identifying priority projects in these sectors [3]. - The three main policy financial institutions involved in the new tools—China Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and China Export-Import Bank—are actively participating in policy interpretation sessions to clarify eligibility and operational models [3]. - Local governments are urged to take advantage of the project application window to implement high-quality projects that translate policy potential into tangible development outcomes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: China's economy shows a mixed trend with some indicators stable and others indicating weak recovery. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties remain challenges. [21] - **Commodity Market**: The casting aluminum alloy futures had a positive debut. Metal production and inventory levels vary, and energy - related policies and supply - demand dynamics affect the energy market. Agricultural products have different supply - demand situations. [2][4] - **Financial Market**: The bond market is expected to have a volatile trend, with potential opportunities in credit bonds. The stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and institutional investors have different stances. The foreign exchange market has fluctuations in exchange rates. [23][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 showed different growth rates year - on - year. [1] - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On June 10, all contracts of casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main AD2511 contract rising 4.49% to 19,190 yuan/ton. [2] - The first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued on June 10. [2] - On June 10, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 18 had negative basis. [2] - Policies were introduced to promote the high - quality development of the real economy in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [2][3] 3.2.2 Metal - In April, Chile's copper production increased 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. [4] - On June 9, copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while cobalt and aluminum alloy inventories remained stable. [4][5] - As of June 10, the gold持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF decreased by 0.03% from the previous trading day. [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution". [6] - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027. [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects. [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in July will decrease slightly but remain strong. [8] - The EU plans to impose new sanctions on Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline and oil price cap. [8] - Russia extended the ban on selling oil to buyers who comply with the price cap. [9] - EIA adjusted the average price forecasts of WTI and Brent crude oil for this year and next year. [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased through bidding. [12] - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. [12] - South Korea's egg prices reached a four - year high in May, and prices are expected to rise in June and August. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 10, the central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting continued on June 10. [15] - Policies were introduced to deepen reforms in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium with science - and - technology - based private enterprises. [16] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment. [16] - As of June 10, the new issuance scale of land reserve special bonds this year reached 108.348 billion yuan. [16] - Many bond funds are "restricting purchases". [17] - The asset - securitization market has developed significantly this year. [17] - Newly issued savings bonds on June 10 had lower interest rates but were still popular. [18] - As of June 10, the issuance scale of commercial banks' "Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds" this year reached 770.16 billion yuan. [18] - The restructuring plan of Red Star Macalline was approved. [18] - New green and innovative medium - term notes and science - and - technology innovation bonds were successfully issued. [19][20] - Some local governments are strengthening debt and financial supervision. [20][21] - The World Bank and Fitch adjusted their global economic and sovereign rating outlooks. [21] - Japan may adjust its government bond purchase policy. [21] - Some bond - related companies had negative events, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted. [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with an optimistic atmosphere. [23] - Some bonds had price increases and decreases in the exchange - traded bond market. [23] - The convertible bond market had mixed performance. [24] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends. [25] - European and US bond yields had different trends due to various factors. [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had different changes. [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performance. [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different investment institutions have different views on the bond market, including the continuation of volatility, potential for interest rate decline, and the attractiveness of credit bonds. [30] - Regarding the stock market, some institutions are optimistic about Chinese stocks, especially technology stocks. [36] 3.4 Stock Market News - A - share indices declined in the afternoon, with TMT sectors adjusting and some sectors rising. [34] - Hong Kong stock indices also declined, with different sector performances. [35] - Hundred - billion private equity funds have increased their positions in A - shares, indicating an optimistic outlook. [35] - UBS maintains a "neutral" stance on Chinese stocks and an "attractive" rating on Chinese technology stocks. [36] - More than 60% of active equity funds have recovered from losses, and there may be opportunities in technology stocks. [36]