Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Year-over-year, the January CPI rose by 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5% and the prior figure of 2.7% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations and up from 0.2% previously [1] - On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI also rose by 2.5%, in line with expectations but slightly down from 2.6% [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, the market anticipates a 61 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by 2026, an increase from the prior expectation of 58 basis points [1] - Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, indicated that the CPI data did not show the feared strength, making the Fed's "normalization" rate cut path clearer [1] - The Fed's decision will heavily depend on the labor market's performance, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is highly sensitive to signs of weakness in the job market [1] - The expectation remains that the Fed will implement two rate cuts this year, with the next anticipated in June [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility influenced by U.S. CPI data, with a notable recovery after a dip from historical highs [1][2] - As of February 13, gold prices rebounded to over $5000 per ounce, following a significant drop from around $5600, with a cumulative increase of over 3% in February [1][2] - The U.S. CPI for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, leading to heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - The market consensus is forming around the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year, with a projected cut of 50-75 basis points [2][3] - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to exhibit mild fluctuations during the Chinese New Year, with a slightly higher probability of increases compared to decreases [4] - Factors such as geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar fluctuations, and Federal Reserve policies are expected to continue influencing gold prices and supporting upward trends [4][5] Group 3 - The domestic futures exchanges have raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures during the holiday period, indicating a cautious approach to trading amid market volatility [6] - The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair could introduce uncertainties regarding future monetary policy, impacting market sentiment and gold prices [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀回落，降息无忧 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀回落，降息无忧 2] [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月，美国通胀低于预期。具体来看：1）食品价格增速放缓，能源价格显著回落；2） 二手车价格大幅回落，核心商品通胀压力可控；3）机票上涨带动通胀反弹，但住房通胀回落， 核心服务通胀压力有限。往前看，我们仍维持此前对年内降息节奏的判断：1）短期，鲍威尔剩 余任期内降息暂缓已是基线预期，就业超预期对此并无影响；2）5 月沃什就任后，考虑到其"降 息+缩表、缩职能"的基本政策主张，加之届时关税对通胀的影响大概率基本显现，降息阻碍不 大，再度开启降息的可能性较大，年内预计累计降息至少 50B ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the inclusion of CATL (宁德时代) in the Hang Seng Index, along with other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Laopu Gold, while Zhongsheng Group is removed, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 90, effective March 9 [1][4]. - CATL was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20, 2025, and has seen a stock price increase of over 90% within the year, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 2.7 trillion [3]. - As of February 13, 2025, CATL's H-shares closed at HKD 517.5, while Luoyang Molybdenum and Laopu Gold closed at HKD 21.72 and HKD 738.5 respectively, with respective declines of 6.94% and 3.97% [3]. Group 2 - The adjustment of index constituents is expected to trigger passive fund reallocation, potentially leading to increased trading volumes for the affected stocks as the effective date approaches [4]. - The Hang Seng Index series is gradually incorporating more new economy sectors such as renewable energy, new consumption, and biotechnology, while reducing the weight of traditional industries, enhancing the growth potential and investment attractiveness of the index [4]. - As of December 2025, the total assets under management for products tracking the Hang Seng Index series amounted to approximately USD 117.7 billion [4]. Group 3 - Since the beginning of 2026, there has been a structural divergence in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.65% while the Hang Seng Tech Index has declined by 2.82% [5]. - In 2025, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced gains of 27.77% and 23.45% respectively [5]. - Analysts suggest that the consumer sector, currently at relatively low valuations, may continue to rise due to increased consumption activity leading up to the Spring Festival, while precious metals and energy sectors are expected to experience upward volatility amid geopolitical uncertainties [5].

具体来看：1）1月美国CPI能源项整体环比-1.5%（前值0.3%），对通胀形成明显降温作用。能源商品 价格环比-3.3%（前值-0.3%），分项下的汽油环比-3.2%（前值-0.3%），燃油环比-5.7%（前值前 值-0.8%）。能源服务环比0.2%（前值1.0%），分项下的电力环比-0.1%（前值0.2%）；燃气服务环比 1.0%（前值3.7%）。1月，布伦特原油价格从63美元/桶左右持续修复，截至2月12日已涨价至71美元/ 桶，考虑到国际原油价格传导有一个月左右的时滞，近月能源项存在上行压力。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商宏观静思录 事件 2026年2月13日美国劳工统计局发布：1月CPI环比0.2%（前值0.3%），核心CPI环比0.3%（前值 0.2%）；CPI同比2.4%（前值2.7%），核心CPI同比2.5%（前值2.6%）。 核心观点 美国1月CPI同比2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%，主要的降温项来自能源价格和二手车。核心通胀环比 0.3%符合预期，房租项走势温和，部分服务价格涨幅持续。尽管通胀降温，由于非农企稳和美联储官 员表态等因 ...

Inflation Data - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[3] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected and previous value of 0.3%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, in line with expectations, while the previous value was 2.6%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices saw a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, driven mainly by gasoline (-3.2%) and fuel oil (-5.7%) price drops[3] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.7% previously, with household food and restaurant prices also showing notable declines[3] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices remained flat month-on-month at 0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, down from 1.4% previously[4] - The core services price index rose by 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3% previously, indicating resilience in service sector inflation[7] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 51.8% from 48.9%[9] - US Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year yield dropping by 7 basis points to 3.4% and the 10-year yield down by 5 basis points to 4.04%[9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the volatility in used car prices is more of a technical adjustment rather than a collapse in consumer demand, which may mask underlying inflation trends in other core goods[5] - The Cleveland Fed predicts that January's core PCE will remain at 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the downward trend of core inflation[8]

2月14日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 数据方面，美国劳工统计局周五公 布，1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，较上月回落0.3个百分点。美国1月通胀表现相对温和， 缓解了对通胀大幅上升的担忧，提振了市场对美联储将降息的预期。利率互换交易员预计在12月前进行 第三次降息的可能性约为50%。据报道，交易员在数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些 投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 不过，通胀率仍持续高于美联储2%的年度目标。 芝加哥联 储行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，如果通胀在跌向2%目标水平的轨道上，美联储可以进一步降息，但目前 并非如此。 "我认为利率可以从当前水平进一步下调，甚至可能再降几次。但前提是通胀回到迈向2% 的轨道上，"古尔斯比周五接受采访时表示。"目前我们没有在回到2%的轨道上。 关注我，更多股市资 讯告诉你！ ...

Group 1 - Meituan expects a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024, indicating a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [9][11][24] - The primary reason for this drastic change is the expected operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in its core local business segment, which had an operating profit of approximately RMB 524.15 billion in 2024 [11][26][28] - The company attributes this loss to intensified competition in the industry and a strategic increase in ecosystem investments, which include enhanced marketing efforts, rider incentives, and resource allocation to improve operational efficiency [13][26][28] Group 2 - Meituan's stock price has dropped 22.5% since its peak in January, closing at HKD 82.5 on February 13, with its market capitalization briefly falling below HKD 500 billion [7][22] - The company anticipates that the trend of losses will continue into the first quarter of 2026, although it maintains that its operational status remains stable and it has sufficient cash to support business development [13][28] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes Meituan and other internet companies, has seen a decline of 6.26% since February, reflecting broader market challenges [28][29]

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with food prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.6% previously, and energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, down from a 0.3% increase[2] - Energy commodity prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month, while energy services saw a slight increase of 0.2%[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, particularly in clothing (up 0.3% month-on-month) and new car prices (up 0.1%) despite a significant drop in used car prices (down 2.0% year-on-year)[2] - Core services prices increased slightly by 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by higher transportation costs due to severe weather conditions[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the January inflation data, the market reacted with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in both US stocks and bonds, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in gold prices[2] Uncertainties and Future Outlook - The report highlights significant uncertainties in the sustainability of the January inflation data, primarily due to weather-related disruptions and the potential for core inflation to rise again[2] - The upcoming tax refund season and fiscal subsidies may stimulate consumer demand, posing risks for core goods and services inflation to remain sticky[2]