核心观点 中东地缘局势反复（以色列与伊朗互相指责）持续扰动全球市场，但A股周二仍录得显著上涨，上证指数呈现技术性突破迹象。市场焦点转向此次突破的可 持续性，核心在于能否吸引增量机构资金入场。量化数据显示，当前机构在关键品种中掌握"核心交易"优势，其节奏把控是后续行情演进的关键。 一、市场背景：地缘扰动边际递减，技术突破初显 中东局势再现反复（以色列指控伊朗撕毁协议，伊朗否认），信息混乱加剧短期波动。历史经验表明，地缘政治复杂性高，过度依赖其作为操作基准 风险较大。当前阶段，各方实质性行动升级概率或低于预期。 二、资金行为：情绪回暖，但机构保持克制 今日市场情绪显著回暖： 技术层面，上证指数今日放量突破近期震荡箱体，领涨力量为"金融+科技"组合——该组合亦是去年9月底市场突破的主力，为技术形态提供初步积极 信号。 美联储降息预期升温构成潜在利好：近日美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼释放鸽派信号（提及7月降息可能性），推动美股上涨。此举或与未来美联储人事布局 预期相关，但需警惕预期提前透支及潜在反向操作风险（如拉高后做空）。美联储动向是重要外因，但A股突破持续性更需依赖内资决心。 "做多主导"覆盖个股数达3890家，创近期新 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（6 月 24 日）A 股三大指数集体走强，沪指再度站上 3400 点关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.15%，收报 3420.57 点；深证成指涨 1.68%，收报 10217.63 点；创业板指涨 2.30%，收报 2064.13 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 14146 亿，较昨日大幅放量 2920 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 24 日强势，收盘 3904.03，环比上涨 46.13。 焦炭：焦炉开工受制于环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素有所降低，而钢厂原料备货延续低库存策略，焦炭入 炉刚需及采购需求同步走弱，昨日河北及山东主流钢厂落实焦炭第四轮 50-55 元/吨提降。 焦煤：煤矿多考虑安全生产及环保检查等因素主动放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减， 上游库存仍处历史高位，且传统淡季背景之下钢焦企业放缓原料补库，焦煤中长期过剩格局较难改变。（数据来 源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】美糖周一波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收低。受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压郑糖 2509 月合约周二小 幅走低。受资金作用郑 ...

地缘政治方面，伊以停火协议虽然生效，但市场对其维持的信心不足。伊朗对美军基地的打击和以色列对德黑兰的空袭，都显示出局势的不确定性。这 种不确定性可能会对能源和黄金市场产生影响，咱们在投资时要做好风险管理。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3.31%，创5月13日以来最大单日涨幅。小马智行、新东方、金山云等个股表现突出。这主要得益于政策支持、美 联储降息预期和估值修复等因素。不过，中概股的持续性还得看政策的实际效果和企业基本面的改善，咱们要理性看待这波上涨。 各位朋友大家好，这里是帮主郑重的隔夜市场解读时间。接下来咱们来聊聊隔夜市场的那些大事，看看有哪些值得咱们关注的信号。 先说美股，那叫一个涨势如虹啊。三大指数收盘都涨超1%，道指创3月初以来新高，标普和纳指也创下2月下旬以来的新高。大型科技股多数上涨，英特 尔涨超6%，英伟达、奈飞、亚马逊也都涨超2%，不过特斯拉跌超2%，苹果小幅下跌。科技股七巨头整体表现不错，英伟达和亚马逊涨超2%，AMD更是 收涨6.83%，台积电ADR也刷新了收盘历史高位。这说明科技股的热度依然不减，尤其是AMD，最近可是出尽了风头。 说到AMD，那就不得不提它包揽亚马逊CPU热销榜 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月24日16时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.26%，沪银主力收涨0.09%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储出现7月降息声音。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，最新 以色列和伊朗已经同意停火。③货币属性方面，美联储鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，不太担心关税导致持续通胀。美联储沃勒称鉴 于近期通胀数据温和，应考虑在7月降息。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期 高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a three-month high of $105,977.82, driven by macro liquidity expectations and technological advancements in decentralized exchanges, particularly XBIT's unique features [1][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price surged over 6% in the last four hours, with trading volume increasing significantly, indicating heightened market sentiment [1]. - The recent price movement followed a "breakout-pullback-rebound" pattern, with the closing price above the previous resistance level of $99,222, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2]. Technological Innovations - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform showcased a 230% increase in large transactions as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, without the liquidity crises often seen in traditional exchanges [4]. - The platform's dynamic liquidity pool mechanism ensures optimal transaction prices even during extreme market conditions [4]. - XBIT's three core advantages include military-grade security through zero-knowledge proof technology, cross-chain asset interoperability, and a user-friendly design that simplifies complex trading operations [4]. Trading Strategies - Despite bullish momentum, significant historical resistance exists around $105,371, which could pose a risk of short-term price corrections [6]. - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive buying at support levels and cautious shorting if prices face resistance at higher levels [6]. Decentralized Exchange Growth - The trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) surpassed 35% for the first time, with XBIT emerging as a key player due to its innovative on-chain order book model [6]. - XBIT's "trade-to-mine" model has led to a 400% increase in its token value, creating a positive feedback loop for users [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term support for Bitcoin is expected from macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential ETF inflows, with a price target of $120,000 if resistance levels are broken [9]. - The emergence of advanced DEX platforms like XBIT is reshaping the cryptocurrency trading landscape, emphasizing the importance of security, transparency, and efficiency for investors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's economic data shows signs of weakness, yet the market's reaction remains limited, with the Euro experiencing a rebound after a gap down [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - The June HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone is at 50.2, unchanged from the previous month but below the market expectation of 50.5, indicating persistent weak economic growth [3]. - The Services PMI for June is reported at 50.0, up from 49.7 in May, suggesting a return to stability after a brief contraction, although growth has slowed to a three-month low [3]. - Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction at 49.4, with new orders showing the smallest decline in 13 months, marking the end of a three-year decline in new orders [3]. Manufacturing and Employment Insights - Eurozone manufacturers are still reducing procurement activities, but the pace is the slowest in three years, with an acceleration in job cuts compared to May [4]. - Input costs in manufacturing have decreased for three consecutive months, while output prices have been lowered for the second time [4]. Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The Euro's rebound is supported by short covering and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have raised expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The Euro is currently in an upward channel since March, facing significant resistance around 1.1630, with key support at 1.1412 [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish structure for the Euro against the Dollar, with critical support levels at 1.14-1.1380 [6].

Core Viewpoints - The support for gold prices from risk-hedging factors is expected to weaken due to easing geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] - The outlook for gold remains bullish in the long term despite short-term volatility, influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations [2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Minmetals Futures indicates that dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, such as Governor Bowman supporting rate cuts if inflation pressures are controlled, will drive silver prices stronger than gold [1] - UBS emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a diversification tool rather than a hedge against geopolitical events, maintaining a target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [3] - Heraeus analysts note that due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, gold is temporarily losing its appeal as investors shift towards white metals like silver and platinum [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down under high deficit pressures, but the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term lack of clear drivers [2] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates ongoing expansion, but significant price increases in manufacturing and services are raising inflation concerns [2] - The Eurozone's composite PMI has dropped to a five-month low, contrasting with the resilience of the U.S. economy, which may support the stabilization of the dollar [2]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impacting market sentiment and reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The ceasefire is set to last for 12 hours, with both parties confirming their acceptance of the agreement mediated by Qatar, contrasting with previous military actions that raised tensions [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, spot gold prices fell to $3342.59 per ounce, breaking below the $3350 mark, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand [1][3] - International oil prices also declined, with a drop of up to 6%, reaching a two-week low of $64.38 per barrel, indicating a significant easing of concerns regarding energy supply disruptions [1][3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy has become a focal point, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting possible rate cuts as early as July due to labor market concerns [4][5] - Despite the dovish signals, the immediate impact on gold prices is overshadowed by the reduction in geopolitical risk, with market pricing indicating a 23% probability of a rate cut in July, rising to 80% and 92% for September and October, respectively [4][5] Group 4: Economic Data and Inflation Risks - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. business activity, with rising input costs attributed to tariffs, and a slight year-on-year increase in existing home sales, indicating weak demand [5][6] - ING warns that renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to rising oil prices, which may increase inflationary pressures and complicate the Fed's ability to implement monetary easing [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold may test the $3300 support level, influenced by geopolitical developments and Fed policy divergence [8] - In the long term, uncertainties in the global economy, including trade protectionism and inflation pressures, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [8][10]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a decline, falling below the $3350 mark to $3342.59 per ounce due to reduced market concerns over the Middle East following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1] - International oil prices continued to drop, reaching a two-week low of $64.38 per barrel, down 6% [1] - The market is closely monitoring further developments in the Middle East and the upcoming semi-annual monetary policy report from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman made dovish comments, suggesting a possible interest rate cut as early as July due to concerns over the labor market, which surprised the market given her previously hawkish stance [3] - Following Bowman's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year yield at 3.851% and the ten-year yield at 4.34%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.32% to 98.45 [3] - The market currently sees a 23% chance of a rate cut in July, with probabilities rising to 80% and 92% for September and October, respectively [3] Group 3 - Short-term outlook for gold suggests a potential decline towards the $3300 mark, influenced by the ceasefire agreement and diverging expectations regarding Fed rate cuts [4] - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the long-term trend for gold remains positive due to ongoing global uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [4] - Institutional investors have begun to increase their gold holdings again, indicating renewed confidence in gold prices, suggesting that current price corrections may present good buying opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The core driver of the current market trend is the subtle shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, with officials acknowledging the necessity for interest rate cuts if core PCE inflation continues to converge towards the 2% target [3] - There is a significant divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot, with the futures market pricing in a more aggressive rate cut for 2024 than indicated by the Fed [3][4] - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to the interplay of Fed policy, tariff impacts, geopolitical risks, and economic data, leading to a potential re-evaluation of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold shows a critical resistance zone between 795-805 CNY/gram and a support level at 750-760 CNY/gram, with the effectiveness of these levels dependent on geopolitical developments [3] - The market is at a crossroads, balancing the certainty of the Fed's policy shift against the uncertainty of its execution, which could lead to significant price adjustments [4] - Traders should be cautious of two main risk points: overinterpretation of single policy signals leading to price overshooting and potential trend changes following key technical level breaches [4]