Group 1 - The current total holdings of the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 947.64 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - On July 15, spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a high of $3366.41 per ounce, closing at $3324.6 per ounce, down $18.74 or 0.56% [6] - Recent U.S. inflation data showed that both the June CPI and core CPI exceeded previous values, but core CPI has been below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that tariff impacts on inflation are not fully realized [6][7] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for nearly two cuts by the end of the year [6] - Analysts indicate that the lower-than-expected core CPI has raised questions about the extent of consumer price impacts from tariffs, potentially prompting President Trump to advocate more strongly for rate cuts [7] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices may consolidate, with resistance at $3350 and potential targets of $3400 and $3450 if broken, while a drop below $3300 could lead to testing the 100-day moving average at $3245 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have decreased by 0.42% to 774.92 RMB per gram, while international gold prices have slightly increased by 0.01% to 3337.1 USD per ounce, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by various factors [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is a significant driver of gold price fluctuations, with threats of high tariffs on the EU and Mexico raising concerns about global trade dynamics [2]. - The EU's potential retaliatory tariffs could exacerbate inflation, which would be favorable for gold prices, although short-term market sentiment remains cautious as investors await more details [2]. - Trump's announcement of sending tariff letters to smaller countries, with rates possibly exceeding 10%, may provide some support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. June CPI showed the largest month-on-month increase since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a projected reduction of about 44 basis points by year-end [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 53%, and Powell's vigilance regarding inflation suggests a cautious approach from the Fed [3]. - The moderate rise in inflation data did not exceed expectations, resulting in a stronger dollar index and a six-week high in U.S. Treasury yields, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold market is experiencing frequent short-term volatility, with key technical levels such as 3375 USD acting as strong resistance and the 3330-3350 USD range serving as significant support [4]. - Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await clarity on tariff policies and economic data, with speculative positions impacting price movements [4]. - Retail investors are advised to be cautious of chasing prices, as this could lead to unfavorable outcomes [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to be influenced by tariff policies, inflation data, and market sentiment, leading to significant volatility [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies provides both support as a safe haven and pressure due to market caution [5]. - Long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases, increasing demand for gold, and its properties as a hedge against inflation are expected to support gold prices, with a potential for upward movement in the long run [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stalemate of the Federal Reserve is likely to persist due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation data [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Recent inflation data has not alleviated uncertainties stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The housing price index has shown a slight decline, indicating a potential downward trend in inflation [1] - However, prices of certain goods potentially affected by import tariffs have seen an acceleration in their price increases [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The analyst believes that without the uncertainties related to tariffs, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would likely have enough confidence to begin lowering interest rates [1] - The current policy stalemate is expected to continue until the situation becomes clearer [1]

金十数据7月15日讯，分析师Omair Sharif及其所创办的"通胀洞察"研究公司认为，6月通胀数据中能看 出关税的影响痕迹。他在报告中写道："今日公布的数据显示，关税开始产生实质影响。"他指出，若剔 除价格下降的汽车品类，上月核心商品价格上涨0.55%，为2021年11月以来的最大单月涨幅。6月，服 务品类价格增速放缓帮助抑制了整体通胀。但这种情况可能不会持续，Sharif写道："我不认为未来核心 服务价格的走弱能继续抑制核心商品价格的预期上涨。" 分析师：6月通胀数据中能看出关税的影响痕迹 ...

美国财长贝森特：还没看通胀数据，但"不会过分强调某一个通胀数据" 。 ...

今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3364.33美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3364.15美 元/盎司，上涨0.63%，最高触及3364.55美元/盎司，最低下探3340.99美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看涨走势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 伦敦金冲高回落后，市场对后续涨势能否延续产生显著分歧。从驱动因素来看，支撑上涨的逻辑主要 有：美联储鸽派预期余温尚存，贸易政策谈判的不确定性或促使避险资金流入，以及部分多头基于通胀 数据"利空出尽"的预期进行押注。 然而，压制因素也较为突出：3375附近的关键阻力位多次被试探却未能突破，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低 点，释放出回调信号，并且美元指数在经济数据公布前企稳，可能进一步限制黄金的上行空间。趋势 上，在未有效突破3375-3380阻力区间之前，高位遇阻后的回调风险要大于续涨概率。 【要闻速递】 美国6月消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将显示物价上涨趋势明显，而这一现象可能标志着由关税引发的 价格上涨正式拉开序幕。受到汽油价格反弹和部分商品成本上升的影响，通胀数据可能打破此前几个月 的低迷表现，给美联储的货币政策带来新的挑战。 尽管服务业通胀的温和表现为 ...

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with market predictions indicating a rise in the June CPI year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7% and a core CPI increase to 3% from 2.8% in May [3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold futures are currently trading around 777.30 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase of 0.15% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for gold futures today were 779.08 yuan per gram and 775.84 yuan per gram, respectively [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be oscillating [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates that if the actual inflation data meets or exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Conversely, if inflation data falls below expectations, it could reignite market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - There is growing concern regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, especially with the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [3] - The White House economic advisor has attributed a $700 million cost overrun on the Fed's headquarters renovation to the Federal Reserve, increasing market uncertainty [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The current trading pattern for Shanghai gold futures indicates a strong oscillation, with key price levels being contested [3] - The main contract is fluctuating around 781 yuan per gram, with short-term support identified between 765-800 yuan per gram and resistance levels at 781-795 yuan per gram [3] - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average show signs of a golden cross, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the price stabilizes above the 10-day moving average (approximately 770 yuan per gram) [3]