智通财经APP获悉，英国经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这让英国财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)得 以松一口气，但也提高了英国央行进一步降息的门槛。 英国国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，英国第二季度GDP环比增长0.3%，超过经济学家和英国央行预 测的0.1%。继前两个月小幅下滑后，英国GDP在6月实现了0.4%的环比增长，是经济学家预测值的两 倍。 英国GDP在第一季度0.7%的增长被认为是制造商为应对美国关税而"人为"提振的，但英国首相斯塔默 (Keir Starmer)仍多次将英国在七国集团(G7)中表现优于其他成员国视为经济"触底反弹"的证据。 这些数据也使英国央行在是否继续降息方面面临更多不确定性。周二公布的统计数据显示，自去年10月 里夫斯提高税收的预算案以来，失业人数少于此前预期。交易员们已不再充分押注英国央行今年会进一 步降息，并预计基准利率将在明年稳定在3.5%。 英国央行在上周以经济活动减弱为理由实施了一年内的第五次降息。然而，近一半的货币政策委员会成 员反对这一决定，理由是对近期通胀上涨感到担忧。此次政策会议也是英国央行28年历史上首次需要两 轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 ...

与此同时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也表示，美国劳动力市场接近充分就业，为美联储提供了"从 容"的空间，无需急于调整政策。他在阿拉巴马的一次活动中指出："政策波动可能对公众造成困扰，我 倾向于等待更多清晰信号再行动。" 不过，他也警告称，7月就业报告显示新增岗位远低于预期，并对前两个月数据进行了历史性下调，如 果劳动力市场比预期更疲软，可能会改变政策讨论的平衡。博斯蒂克表示："未来五周内，我们的任务 是更好地了解就业市场状况，为9月政策会议做准备。" 美联储在7月29-30日的会议上将短期借贷利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间，副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒投了反 对票，主张降息以应对潜在的劳动力市场疲软。古尔斯比认为，目前的经济信号更为复杂。 他指出，尽管经过近期修正的月度新增就业数据显示过去三个月平均仅增加35,000个岗位，但这可能更 多反映移民数量下降，而非需求疲软。他还提到，4.2%的失业率和低裁员率显示劳动力市场依然稳 健。 关于降息时机，古尔斯比表示，需要看到多个月的通胀数据稳定下降才能有信心采取行动。他解释 称："我们将持续获取信息，并沿着既定路径前进；如果通胀确实向2%目标靠拢，我们可能会更快地回 到 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **"anti-involution" policy** targeting industries such as **electric vehicles** and **solar energy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **"anti-involution" policy** addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the **2021 real estate market downturn** and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on **downstream price pressures** in advanced industries, addressing **private sector overcapacity**, and considering the macroeconomic context of **high debt** and **aging population** [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include **supply-side cleanup** and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - **Trade credit plan** of **138 billion RMB** [3]. - **National fertility subsidies** totaling **100 billion RMB** [4]. - **Tuition fee reductions** amounting to **30 billion RMB** [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the **actual GDP growth rate** may fall below **4.5%** in the second half of **2025**, with a **nominal GDP growth rate** around **3.5%** and a **GDP deflator index** expected to remain low at **-0.8% to -0.9%** [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)** and **Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. - Stability in **corporate profit margins** and **bank net interest margins**. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like **U.S. tariffs** negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from **September 2024** is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed signals with high power plant daily consumption but weakening demand in some sectors such as real - estate and shipping [4][21]. - Inflation presents different trends, with CPI affected by falling pork prices and PPI influenced by declining oil prices [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years - On August 12, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 955,000 tons, up 7.3% from August 5. On August 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.502 million tons, up 12.3% from July 31 [11]. - The daily consumption of coastal eight - province power plants reached a five - year high due to high - temperature and humid weather [11]. 3.1.2 Production: Partial Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate - On August 8, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from August 1; the capacity utilization rate was 90.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 1. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from August 1 [14]. - There is a possibility of stricter environmental protection control in Tangshan due to air quality concerns [14]. 3.1.3 Production: Weakly Stable Tire Operating Rate - On August 7, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1 [16]. - On August 7, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 90.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from July 31; the operating rate of downstream looms was 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from July 31 [16]. 3.1.4 Demand: Nine - Consecutive - Day Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index - From August 1 - 12, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 175,000 square meters, down 12.5% from July, 15.9% from August last year, and 32.5% from August 2023 [21]. - In August, retail sales of cars decreased by 4% year - on - year, while wholesale sales increased by 16% year - on - year [23]. - On August 12, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 1.0%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively compared to August 5. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 201,000 tons from August 1 to August 8 [30]. - On August 12, the national cement price index decreased by 0.1% compared to August 5. The average cement price has been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [31]. - On August 12, the active glass futures contract price was 1,067 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from August 5. The decline in glass prices has slowed [36]. - On August 8, the CCFI index decreased by 2.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 3.9% compared to August 1. The container shipping market is in a wait - and - see state due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low - On August 12, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from August 5. The average wholesale price of pork in August decreased by 0.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year [48]. - The agricultural product price index's upward inflection point is later than in previous years. On August 12, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% from August 5 [54]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Continue to Decline - On August 12, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 67.6 and 63.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.8% and 3.1% from August 5. The prices have been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [55]. - On August 12, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively compared to August 5 [60]. - Most industrial product prices increased in August. The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed [60].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing strong upward momentum, with significant increases in various indices, particularly in growth-oriented sectors, while value stocks remain relatively subdued [1][3][6][8]. Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continue to rise, with the overall market returning to a rating of 4.5 stars [2]. - Major indices, including the CSI All Share Index, have surpassed their highest points from October 1 of the previous year [3]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks are on the rise, with small-cap stocks showing slightly higher gains [4][5]. - Growth style indices, such as the ChiNext, have seen substantial increases, while value style indices have lagged behind [6][7][8]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including a lower-than-expected non-farm employment increase of 73,000 jobs in July, suggests potential signs of economic recession [16][17][20]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [21][22]. - The postponement of a 24% tariff between China and the U.S. for 90 days may help lower inflation rates [23][24]. - These economic indicators have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [25]. Investment Implications - A decrease in interest rates is expected to positively impact asset prices, particularly benefiting bonds directly and stocks indirectly due to increased liquidity and lower funding costs [26][29]. - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit even more during a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, as the dollar typically depreciates against other currencies [30][31]. - Historical trends indicate that the last bull market in Hong Kong stocks occurred during the 2020-2021 U.S. interest rate cut cycle [33]. - The current valuation levels of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are significantly higher than during the last rate cut cycle, which may reduce the extent of future benefits from rate cuts [38]. Interest Rate Context - Historically, the average yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been between 2-3%, with recent rates hovering just above 4% [40][43]. - Interest rate fluctuations are a short- to medium-term factor affecting market dynamics, providing opportunities for buying low and selling high, but having less impact on long-term investment returns [45][48]. Additional Features - A new feature in the "Today’s Star" app allows users to access real-time ETF valuation data and identify undervalued ETFs [49][50].

当地时间8月13日，西班牙国家统计局发布的最终数据显示，7月通货膨胀率环比上升0.4个百分点，达 到2.7%，为连续第二个月上升。西班牙政府表示，电力和燃油价格上涨是推动通胀走高的主要因素。 （总台记者 廖军华） ...

Economic Growth - Vietnam's GDP growth rate accelerated to 7.96% in Q2 2025, slightly below the 8.56% growth rate in Q2 2022 post-pandemic[5] - The industrial and construction sectors experienced the highest growth at 8.97%, while the service sector grew by 8.46%[5][10] Sector Performance - The agricultural sector's contribution to GDP decreased to 9.6%, with a growth rate of 3.89%[9] - The industrial sector accounted for 36.5% of GDP, with manufacturing leading at a growth rate of 10.75%[10][14] Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - FDI registered a total of approximately $21.5 billion, marking a 41.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024[21] - The FDI disbursement rate improved by 8.12% year-on-year, reaching $11.72 billion in H1 2025[21] Trade and Retail - Total trade volume in Q2 reached $229.1 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $2.9 billion in June[25] - Retail sales in June grew by approximately 8.3%, with goods retail growth slowing to 6.7%[17] Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation rose to 3.56% in June, with healthcare and housing costs contributing significantly to price increases[27] - Economic risks include potential declines in demand from major economies and uncertainties in trade policies[12][30]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the succession of the Federal Reserve Chair, with former St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicating his willingness to advance the process in discussions with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1] - President Trump is critical of current Fed Chair Powell and seeks a successor who aligns with his policy views, particularly in favor of interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [3] - A candidate list is being compiled by Mnuchin, featuring financial elites including Bullard, NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governor Waller, and former Bush economic advisor Summers, each with unique policy perspectives [3] Group 2 - Bullard supports lowering interest rates, arguing that tariffs do not directly cause inflation but may slow economic growth, suggesting that the Fed may adjust its monetary policy accordingly [4] - He emphasizes flexibility in monetary policy, advocating for different approaches based on economic conditions, such as raising rates during inflationary periods and potentially lowering them in times of economic downturn [5] - The future direction of the Fed's monetary policy and the selection of the new chair will remain a focal point for global financial markets [5]

美国7月CPI数据公布： · 总体CPI：环比 +0.2%（符合预期），同比 2.7%（略低于预期的 2.8%）。 特朗普愤怒地发帖称，在关税恐慌的背景下，通货膨胀率却没有上升： 数万亿美元正通过关税流入（美国），这对我们的国家、股市、总体财富以及几乎所有方面都极其有 利。已经有证据证明，即便到了现在这个阶段，关税也没有引发通胀，或者给国家带来其他问题，除了 大量现金源源不断地涌进财政部的金库。此外，事实也表明，在大多数情况下，消费者根本没有在支付 这些关税，主要是企业和各国政府——其中很多是外国的——在埋单。 但大卫·所罗门（高盛董事长兼CEO）和高盛拒绝在应得之处给予肯定。他们很早以前就在市场反应和 关税问题上做出了错误预测，而且错得离谱，就像他们在很多事情上都错了一样。我认为，大卫应该去 找一个新的经济学家，或者干脆专注于做DJ，而不是操心经营一家大型金融机构。 高盛首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 的最新测算是这样的： · 核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：环比 +0.3%（符合预期），同比 3.1%（略高于预期的 3.0%），是 2 月 以来最高。 数据公布后，各个市场都在诉说着自己对CPI数据的理 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Major tech stocks experienced a broad increase, with Intel rising over 5% and Meta up more than 3%, bringing its total market capitalization close to $2 trillion. Apple, Microsoft, and Google rose over 1%, while Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Netflix saw slight increases. Notably, Meta and Nvidia reached new closing highs [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.49%. Tencent Music surged nearly 12%, while Weibo, JD.com, and Alibaba increased over 3%. However, NIO fell nearly 9%, and XPeng Motors dropped over 6% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with expectations, and the year-on-year increase remained at 2.7%, which was lower than the anticipated 2.8% [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year growth accelerated from 2.9% to 3.1%, surpassing the market forecast of 3% [3] Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported that July's customs tariff revenue surged to $28 billion, a 273% increase year-on-year. However, the monthly fiscal deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% increase from the previous year [7] - The $291 billion deficit marked the second-highest July deficit in U.S. history, only surpassed by the spike in spending during the pandemic in 2021 [9] - Interest payments alone in July amounted to $91.9 billion, leading to a record cumulative interest expenditure of $1.019 trillion for the fiscal year, projected to exceed $1.2 trillion by year-end [13][16]