受超预期非农数据的影响，三大期指集体走高。截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨1.09%，标普500指数期 货涨1.17%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.97%。 现货黄金短线走低约8美元，现报3251.97美元/盎司。 美国总统特朗普再次在社交媒体上表示，美国没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。他还表示，"汽油 刚刚跌破每加仑1.98美元，为多年来的最低水平，杂货价格下降，能源价格下降"。 周五(5月2日)美股盘前，美国系列重磅经济数据刚刚出炉。劳工统计局报告称，美国4月非农就业人数 增加17.7万，大幅超出预估的13.8万增量，前值为增加22.8万；美国4月失业率报4.2%，市场预估为 4.2%，前值为4.2%。 美国非农就业数据公布后，美国国债收益率上涨，而美元也收复失地。 此外，交易员仍预计美联储今年将降息近四次。美联储官员此前表示，在进一步明确政府的政策将对经 济产生的影响之前，他们并不急于降息，并且根据普遍预计，美联储将在5月的下一次会议上将保持基 准利率不变。 同一日，欧盟统计局初步估计，欧元区今年4月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.2%，与前值相平，略超 出经济学家预期的2.1%；然而不包括食品、酒精、 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported sales of $2,500,000,000, a decrease of 5.7% as reported or about flat on a constant basis, impacted by two fewer shipping days and foreign exchange headwinds [6][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.52, benefiting from productivity gains, restructuring actions, and a lower tax rate, which offset pricing pressure and higher input costs [7][19]. - Gross margin for the quarter was 23.1% as reported, and 24.1% excluding charges, in line with the prior year [17]. - Operating income was $96,000,000 or 3.8%, with adjusted operating margin at 4.8%, a decrease of 130 basis points year-over-year due to higher input costs [17][18]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Global Ceramic**: Sales were just over $990,000,000, a 4.9% decrease as reported but a 1.2% increase on a constant basis, driven by improved product and channel mix [20]. - **Flooring North America**: Sales were $862,000,000, a decrease of 4.2% as reported or 1.1% on a constant basis, impacted by the order management system conversion [20]. - **Flooring Rest of the World**: Sales were $670,000,000, an 8.8% decrease as reported and 2.9% on an adjusted basis, driven by lower sales volume and unfavorable price mix [21]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conditions in the first quarter weakened sequentially, with residential remodeling remaining the lowest sector [12]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been declining, affecting spending and housing activity [13]. - In Europe, consumer confidence has also declined due to economic uncertainty, leading to postponed home sales and remodeling activities [14]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow market share in a challenging environment by optimizing product mix and reducing costs [24]. - Restructuring projects are on schedule, with expected savings of approximately $100,000,000 this year [18][34]. - The company is focusing on enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities to mitigate tariff impacts and improve competitive positioning [9][24]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that the impact of tariffs will influence consumer spending and new construction, though the extent is unpredictable [11]. - The company expects pricing pressure to continue across all regions due to low demand and competitive markets [35]. - The outlook for the second quarter adjusted EPS is projected to be between $2.52 and $2.62, excluding any restructuring or one-time charges [36]. Other Important Information - The company purchased 225,000 shares of its stock for approximately $26,000,000 during the quarter [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents were just over $700,000,000, with free cash flow expected to remain strong despite a use of approximately $85,000,000 in Q1 [22][23]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of tariff impact and pricing actions - The CFO indicated that the $50,000,000 annualized cost impact from tariffs would be more evident in the late third to fourth quarter, as inventory turnover takes time [41]. Question: Domestic capacity and pricing strategy - Management emphasized the advantage of domestic production capacity in the U.S. market, which will be leveraged to optimize results amid tariff increases [43]. Question: Balancing pricing power and demand - Management acknowledged the challenge of balancing pricing power with slower demand, indicating that pricing actions are being assessed continuously [49][50]. Question: EPS growth outlook amid tariff impacts - Management expressed that EPS growth would depend on market conditions, with efforts to offset tariff impacts through pricing and cost-cutting measures [58][59]. Question: Inventory levels and market dynamics - The company noted an increase in inventory levels due to preemptive imports ahead of tariffs, with no significant changes in downstream volumes observed [105][106]. Question: Breakdown of imports and tariff exposure - The company clarified that a significant portion of imports comes from countries like Vietnam and India, with minimal exposure to China [111][112].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported sales for the first quarter were $2.5 billion, a decrease of 5.7% as reported or approximately flat on a constant basis, impacted by two fewer shipping days and foreign exchange headwinds [3][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.52, benefiting from productivity gains, restructuring actions, and a lower tax rate, which offset pricing pressure and higher input costs [4][14] - Gross margin for the quarter was 23.1% as reported, and 24.1% excluding charges, consistent with the prior year [13] - Operating income was reported at $96 million, or 3.8%, with adjusted operating margin at 4.8%, a decrease of 130 basis points year-over-year due to higher input costs [14][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment had sales of over $990 million, a 4.9% decrease as reported but a 1.2% increase on a constant basis, driven by improved product and channel mix [15] - Flooring North America sales were $862 million, a decrease of 4.2% as reported or 1.1% on a constant basis, impacted by the order management system conversion [15] - Flooring Rest of the World reported sales of $670 million, an 8.8% decrease as reported and 2.9% on an adjusted basis, driven by lower sales volume and unfavorable price mix [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conditions in the first quarter weakened sequentially, with residential remodeling remaining the lowest sector [8][11] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been declining, affecting home sales and remodeling activities [10][11] - In Europe, consumer confidence has also declined due to economic uncertainty, leading to postponed home sales and remodeling activities [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow market share in a challenging environment by optimizing product mix and reducing costs [19] - Restructuring projects are on schedule, with expected savings of approximately $100 million this year [14][30] - The company is focusing on enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities to mitigate tariff impacts and improve competitive positioning [5][21] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that the impact of tariffs will influence consumer and business spending, though the extent is unpredictable [7][29] - The company expects pricing pressure to continue across all regions due to low demand and competitive markets [30] - Long-term prospects for the flooring category remain optimistic, with expectations of significant improvement when industry volumes return to historical levels [31] Other Important Information - The company purchased 225,000 shares of its stock for approximately $26 million during the quarter [4] - Cash and cash equivalents were over $700 million, with free cash flow usage of approximately $85 million primarily due to delayed invoicing and increased imports ahead of tariffs [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of tariff impact - The company expects the $50 million annualized cost impact from tariffs to be more pronounced in the late third quarter and fourth quarter, as inventory turnover takes time [34][36] Question: Pricing power in a promotional environment - The company believes that tariffs will be passed through to consumers, with selective pricing actions being taken to offset costs [42][44] Question: EPS growth outlook - Management indicated that EPS growth will depend on market conditions, with efforts to offset tariff impacts through pricing and cost-cutting measures [51][52] Question: Energy cost headwinds - The company expects energy costs to be slightly higher in Q2, with potential benefits from lower natural gas prices in the fourth quarter [118][120] Question: Inventory levels and market share - The company has increased inventory levels due to imports ahead of tariffs, and is focused on maintaining market share without leading with price [97][95]

凤凰网财经讯 5月2日，美股三大指数持续走高，截至发稿，道指涨1.02%，纳指涨1.21%，标普500涨 1.15%， 苹果跌近4%，CEO库克估计关税将增加9亿美元成本。英伟达涨近2%，美国出口规定后，英伟达重启 定制化芯片研发工作。 热门中概股普涨，三倍做多富时中国ETF一度涨超10%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.7%，阿里巴巴涨近 4%，京东涨4%，小鹏汽车涨超6.5%，金山云涨超7%。 全球要闻 特朗普重申：美联储应该降低利率 美国总统特朗普再次在社交媒体上表示，美国没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。他还表示，"汽油 刚刚跌破每加仑1.98美元，为多年来的最低水平，杂货价格下降，能源价格下降，关税带来了数十亿美 元的收入"。 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 巴菲特的20句名言！听进去的都赚钱了 今年5月3日，数万投资人将和往年一样，在"股神"巴菲特的故乡——美国内布拉斯加州小城奥马哈，也 即伯克希尔哈撒韦的总部所在地参加年度股东大会。届时，"股神"将和与会者畅谈，并接受来自分析 师、股东、媒体等的提问。 美国豁免加拿大和墨西哥汽车零部件25%关税 美国海关和边境保护局当地时间5月1 ...

财料｜一图读懂4月美国非农报告 新增非农就业人数超预期，政府雇员连续三个月减少。特朗普点赞美国就业市场，并继续喊话美联储"快降息"……一图读懂 2025年4月美国非农报告 20 10 0 2025-04 公布值 17.7万人 预期值 13万人 ·失业率 0.5% 0 4960 492 49 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2025-04 0% 0.2% 公布值 预期值 0.30% 02 | 2025年04月非农就业人口全貌 4月非农总就业人口1.5952亿人 ▲17.7万人 单位: 万人 采矿和伐木 62.5 联邦政府 +0.1 298.9 0.9 建筑 HIRAHA 831.6 552.2 +7.7 +0.6 F 5577 TA S P J 13590.5 +16.7 私营服务生产 11419.9 +15.6 专业和商业服务 技7 设计、 2261.4 +1.7 信息技术 293.8 0 03 | 美联储利率预期 ·CME"美联储观察"工具对美联储利率未来预期 数据公布后 数据公布前 ■ 100% 95.3% 97.6% Q 是十数据 80% 60% 52.7%55.2% 46.1% 42.1% 4 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，美国没有 通货膨胀， 美联储应该降低 利率。 ...

中美两国在当今国际社会上是公认的最大发展中国家和最大的发达国家，经济总量更是占据了全球的三分之一。 而这两年全球经济不景气，中美关系又有点微妙，资金流动更是暗流涌动，双方你来我往，明争暗斗，机遇与风险都在眼前，处理不好，地球都得跟着震一 震。 自从美联储开启疯狂加息之路，中国企业便将2万亿美元资金，像"肥羊"一样乖乖地放入了美国银行的"羊圈"。 随着人民币升值、美元贬值，这笔巨额资金回流中国的可能性，越来越大！这将对中美经济格局造成怎样的影响？ 本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源赘述在文章中，写作不易，文中会有5s免费广告，为了维持生活，敬请谅解，观看后可阅读全文。 这两年美元资产贬值压力山大，美国佬自己家房子都不保值了，违约率居高不下，华尔街的精英们估计做梦都想把钱搬到安全的地方。 再加上中美贸易摩擦搞得人心惶惶，一些中国企业也开始琢磨着把资金撤回来，落袋为安才是王道。 国内经济增长虽然也放缓了，但好歹人民币资产还算稳定，一些企业就想把资金转回来，寻求更高的回报率，毕竟肥水不流外人田嘛。 这么大一笔资金回流，对中国经济可以说有好有坏，好处虽然能够推高人民币汇率，同时对进口商家都有着不少的好处。 但也并不是百利 ...

欧元区4月份CPI同比上涨2.2%。 ...

Group 1 - China has maintained its position as the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves for nearly 20 years, while the US has been increasing its debt and engaging in financial warfare against countries holding US dollars [1][19] - The US is attempting to strengthen the dollar by raising interest rates, which could lead to economic stagnation if not managed properly [3][11] - Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are also affected by US monetary policies, with Japan providing significant financial support to the US despite the risks involved [7][9] Group 2 - China is strategically reducing its foreign exchange reserves and has stopped purchasing gold to counteract US financial maneuvers [1][9] - The US's approach to increasing interest rates is seen as a double-edged sword, potentially leading to financial crises in smaller nations while temporarily stabilizing its own economy [5][16] - The financial conflict is characterized as a battle of interests, with the US trying to alleviate domestic inflation through external financial pressure [11][16] Group 3 - The US's financial strategies are perceived as attempts to pressure China, reflecting a broader geopolitical struggle [19][21] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by its substantial foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings, which provide a buffer against external shocks [23][25] - The current global economic landscape is marked by China's growing influence and the need for cooperative relationships among nations to mitigate unilateral pressures [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is characterized by significant monetary expansion leading to potential inflation, yet consumer prices are experiencing deflation, creating a paradox for cash holders who may benefit from increased purchasing power [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The M2 money supply reached 326.06 trillion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - Despite the monetary expansion, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, suggesting a deflationary trend in the economy [1][3]. - The deflation is attributed to two main factors: funds not flowing into the goods market and a decline in consumer demand due to economic downturns, leading to significant inventory accumulation [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Holding Cash - Cash holders are experiencing increased purchasing power, as prices for goods such as pork have dropped from 26-28 yuan per jin to 18-20 yuan per jin, and mid-range cars have decreased in price from 250,000 yuan to 160,000-180,000 yuan [5]. - Holding cash allows individuals to avoid risks associated with financial markets, where stock market losses have averaged 140,000 yuan per investor in 2024, and public funds have seen losses of 20-30% [7]. - In times of economic uncertainty, having cash provides a safety net against unemployment and unexpected expenses, allowing individuals to navigate financial difficulties more comfortably [9]. - Cash holders are positioned to seize new investment opportunities as asset prices decline during the deflationary cycle, enabling them to acquire undervalued assets in the future [11].