Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The necessity for the central bank to inject medium- and long-term stable funds into banks is increasing [2][14] - The necessity to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) within the year is not significant [4][38] - The necessity to lower deposit rates is also not significant [6][45] Summary by Sections 1. Necessity for Central Bank's Fund Injection - It is expected that there will be one more reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut this year, likely in December [2][14] - Historical patterns indicate an average of one comprehensive RRR cut every six months since 2021, with the last cut over five months ago [14] - The balance of MDS and MLF tools has exceeded 11 trillion yuan, increasing the difficulty of liquidity management for banks [20][24] - Banks are showing a clear trend of shortening deposit durations, indicating a need for long-term liquidity release through RRR cuts [3][27] 2. Necessity to Lower LPR - The likelihood of lowering LPR this year is low, as it may not significantly stimulate credit demand in Q4 [4][38] - Historical data shows that the probability of LPR cuts in November and December over the past five years is low [39] - Lowering LPR could exacerbate repricing pressure in the first quarter of the following year [40][44] 3. Necessity to Lower Deposit Rates - There is currently no indication of a new round of deposit rate cuts, as the last collective cut by major banks occurred in May [6][45] - The cost of liabilities has significantly improved due to the maturity of high-interest deposits, reducing the necessity for further cuts [51][53] - Lowering deposit rates could lead to increased deposit disintermediation, negatively impacting the stability of funding across year-end [53][57]

Group 1: US Treasury and Inflation - Russell Investments believes that the US 10-year Treasury yield, although below 4%, is still close to its fair value, with expectations that a softening labor market will lead to moderate service sector inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to overlook recent noise and continue rate cuts this month [1] - UK inflation remained unexpectedly stable at 3.8% in September, below the anticipated 4%, which may sustain hopes for a rate cut by the Bank of England by the end of the year, as food price declines offset rising fuel costs [1] Group 2: Japan's Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs maintains its basic forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, although there is a risk of a rate hike in December [2] - Goldman Sachs expresses cautious optimism regarding the Bank of Japan's ability and independence to continue raising rates [2] Group 3: Australian Consumer Sentiment - A survey by the National Australia Bank indicates that consumer pressure levels in Australia rose in the third quarter, driven by job security concerns amidst ongoing cost of living pressures [2] - Despite two-thirds of Australians expecting house prices to rise in the next year, half believe inflation, taxes, and other government charges will increase, with over a third anticipating a rise in unemployment [2] Group 4: Australian Inflation and Interest Rates - The upcoming release of Australia's third-quarter inflation data will clarify market expectations regarding a potential fourth rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November, with economists predicting that the RBA may not cut rates again this year due to significant price increases [2] - The adjusted average inflation rate in Australia for this quarter could reach 2.9% year-on-year, which may cause concern for the RBA [2] Group 5: Japanese Gold ETF Market - A surge in investments has driven the price of Japan's largest gold ETF above its net asset value, highlighting risks faced by investors in turbulent markets, with the price-to-net asset value ratio reaching 16% [3] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange has warned investors to be cautious of this ETF's net asset value due to its recent premium trading, and analysts have raised concerns about potential sell-offs by retail investors if the gold market remains weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly paused its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.75% to prioritize currency stability over further economic stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The seven-day reverse repo rate remains at 4.75%, the lowest level since October 2022, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September last year [1] - The decision to hold rates steady aligns with the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and assess the effects of previous rate cuts [1][2] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the rupiah amid global uncertainties, despite a 2.90% decline year-to-date [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflation rate in Indonesia rose to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024, but remains within the central bank's target range [2] - The central bank and government are collaborating to support economic growth, with GDP growth expected to remain below the country's output potential until 2026 [2] - The central bank anticipates that economic growth will slightly exceed the forecast range of 4.6%-5.4% in 2025, with stronger growth expected next year [2] Group 3: Government Stimulus and Credit Growth - The Indonesian government has launched two stimulus packages totaling $2.8 billion, including cash transfers, food assistance, and employment programs [3] - The finance minister has transferred $12 billion from the central bank to state-owned banks to expand credit [3] - Loan growth in September accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year, the highest level since June, although overall credit demand remains weak due to cautious corporate behavior and high loan rates [3]

Core Insights - The September CPI data is the first official inflation report since the U.S. government shutdown, significantly impacting the market. Following the release, there was a market rally in precious metals and risk assets, but profit-taking behavior has emerged as new data approaches [3][4] - It is anticipated that the September core CPI will show moderate growth, remaining at 3.1%. The divergence between service and goods inflation suggests that while goods prices are rising due to tariffs and demand, service inflation is declining, providing a buffer [4][5] - The report indicates that the core inflation is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, which implies that the market's pricing of a potential interest rate cut in October is unlikely to be reversed [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - The report predicts that the September CPI will rise above 3%, driven by energy and food inflation. The core CPI growth is expected to remain stable at 3.1%, with pressures from tariffs on goods being countered by a decline in service inflation, particularly in housing [4][5] - Factors driving the increase in goods prices include heightened demand for new vehicles and the impact of tariffs on retail prices, particularly for imported goods [4][8] - Service inflation is expected to ease, particularly in housing, due to high interest rates and seasonal declines in travel-related service prices [4][8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that core inflation may face an upward turning point in Q4, with projections indicating that the year-on-year core CPI will rise to 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.7% in October, November, and December, respectively [6][8] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the Federal Reserve's future easing path may be constrained due to accelerating inflation pressures [8][9] - A potential disruption in Q4 inflation could arise from the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which may provide the Federal Reserve with a more lenient decision-making window if tariffs are deemed illegal [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates a persistent global silver supply-demand gap, with a projected deficit of 4,633 tons in 2024 and an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, primarily driven by increased photovoltaic demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver supply is estimated at 31,574 tons and demand at 36,207 tons for 2024, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance [1] - Since 2021, the global silver market has consistently experienced a supply shortage, which is anticipated to continue into 2025 [1] Economic and Market Implications - Silver possesses unique industrial and financial attributes, contrasting with gold's stronger financial and safe-haven characteristics, leading to a widening gold-silver ratio during economic downturns [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December 2025, combined with quantitative easing and a rebound in industrial demand, suggests that silver prices may continue to rise [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to decline, approaching $1.33, marking a one-week low with a drop of 0.31% due to inflation data falling short of market expectations, intensifying speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 1, driven by disappointing inflation data [1] - The overall inflation rate in September remained steady at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5%, also lower than the anticipated 3.7% [1] Group 2 - The UK government borrowed £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £7.2 billion [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of England may initiate rate cuts next year, following comments from Governor Bailey regarding a weak labor market and an unemployment rate rising to 4.8% [1] Group 3 - The GBP/USD technical analysis indicates that the exchange rate is close to $1.3330, failing to break the 20-day exponential moving average support level of $1.3407 [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00, with a potential bearish momentum if it falls below this level [2] Group 4 - Key support area is identified at the low of August 1 at 1.3140, while the psychological resistance level is at 1.3500 [3]

新华财经北京10月22日电英国9月通胀出人意料地保持在3.8%不变，低于预期的4%，这可能会让英国央 行在年底前降息的希望继续存在。 英国国家统计局表示，汽车燃料价格上涨的压力被食品价格下跌所抵消。英国央行正密切关注的服务业 通胀维持在4.7%不变。这些数据让受食品和能源价格上涨挤压的家庭松了一口气，9月份被普遍视为通 胀率的高点，较一年前的1.7%大幅上升。物价压力目前预计将稳步消退。 在经济和就业市场公布悲观数据后，这一数据还可能进一步缓解对通胀挥之不去的担忧。尽管英国央行 不太可能在下个月的会议上降息，但12月降息的可能性已经小幅上升。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铝: 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20960，基差-5，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, is committed to controlling inflation and alleviating the cost of living through measures in the upcoming budget, aiming to create room for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Budget Measures - Reeves plans to implement targeted price measures in the budget to reduce household bills and overall inflation [1] - The Treasury is considering lowering electricity costs as part of the strategy to help decrease inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Reeves attributes part of the fiscal gap to economic losses from Brexit and anticipates that the Office for Budget Responsibility will revise down productivity growth forecasts [1] - A significant tax increase is being prepared for the budget scheduled for November 26 [1] Group 3: Policy Review - Reeves will meet with cabinet ministers to review decisions in their respective policy areas that may contribute to inflation or rising costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, is committed to controlling inflation and alleviating the cost of living pressures through a series of measures in the upcoming budget, aiming to create room for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Budget Measures - Reeves plans to implement targeted price measures in the budget to reduce household bills and lower living costs [1] - The Treasury is considering options such as reducing electricity costs to help decrease overall inflation [1] Group 2: Policy Review - Reeves will meet with cabinet ministers to review decisions in their respective policy areas that may contribute to inflation or rising costs [1]