（1）核心-卫星配置策略 投资者可以参照太阳系运行的原理，运用"一个中心"及"多个行星"的理念，将ETF组合分成"核心仓 位"及"卫星仓位"。"核心仓位"通常以追踪市场的平均表现为目的，主要投资于能表征市场的宽基ETF， 例如沪深300ETF、中证500ETF等。核心仓位一般不需要经常换仓，投资者可以采用"买入并持有策 略"来管理核心仓位。卫星仓位则以捕捉市场各种机会，赚取超额收益为主要目的，主要投资于具有周 期波动、板块轮动特征的行业主题或风格指数ETF。卫星仓位一般需要因环境变化及时做出调整，投资 者可以采用主动策略，根据对市场的主观预判动态管理卫星仓位。 另外，对于喜爱投资单一股票的投资者，也可以考虑使用"核心-卫星配置策略"来管理自己的投资组 合，个股可以代替部分卫星仓位，建立ETF与个股混合的投资组合。 （2）ETF资产配置的再平衡 随着ETF净值涨跌，资产配置中的资产比例会随之变化，所谓再平衡策略，是指投资者定期检视投资组 合，比较各类ETF的最新权重与目标权重之间的差异，将已经上涨的资产减仓部分调整到目标权重，并 投到权重下降的资产。一般来说，投资者可以通过以下两种方式进行再平衡： ①以时间为指 ...

海外巨头持续投入 AI，重视光通信等投资机遇 20250512 摘要 • 光模块行业景气度高涨，新易盛、仕佳光子、博创科技等公司一季报超预 期，验证海外算力产业链的强劲需求，相关标的配置价值凸显。 • 中美关税战缓和，两国或大幅下调关税，利好光模块及 CPU 板块，同时微 软、亚马逊和 Meta 等科技巨头持续增加对 AI 领域的资本开支，进一步推 动算力需求。 • GP300 推迟虽短期影响 1.6T 光模块需求，但市场已充分消化悲观预期， 且部分巨头预计 2026 年 800G 光模块需求将超预期，长期来看 1.6T 需 求仍将增长。 • 国产 AI 数据中心产业链持续强化，英伟达计划推出中国特供版 AI 芯片， 国产算力芯片公司陆续收到加单信息，国产大模型如通义千问等表现超预 期，多重因素推动国产算力发展。 • 国内光模块厂商占据关键生态位，新易盛和旭创一季度业绩亮眼，营收和 净利润大幅增长，市场反应积极，通信设备 ETF 及相关个股均有显著上涨。 • CPO 技术在英伟达等龙头厂商推动下有望加速落地，但商业化仍依赖产业 协同，目前处于早期阶段，需重视硅光技术及其在产业链各环节的发展。 • 国际局势动荡 ...

捷昌驱动 20250512 摘要 • 捷昌驱动 2025 年一季度延续了 2024 年 Q4 的增长势头，营收预计全年 达 40 多亿元，利润约 5 亿元，受益于市场份额扩大和新业务拓展，各板 块新业务稳步推进，下半年与主机厂合作有望取得实质性进展。 • 公司线性驱动控制系统广泛应用于办公（2024 年营收约 24 亿元）、医疗 （约 4 亿元）、智能家居（近 2 亿元）、工业（近 2 亿元）等领域，北美 市场贡献 9-10 亿元营收，欧洲市场 4 亿多元，亚太地区为主导。 • 2025 年各应用场景需求展望：化工领域预计增长十几个百分点，医疗增 长 10%左右，智能家居营收达 2.5-3 亿元，工业增速超 30%，汽车领域 增速快但基数小，预计 2025 年达 5,000-8,000 万元，2026 年超 1 亿元。 • 为应对关税风险，捷昌驱动通过马来西亚和美国生产基地覆盖北美地区 90%的营收，关税影响暂时不大。马来西亚 10%的关税由客户承担，且 北美营收占比下降，关税风险可控。 • LED 子公司整合已完成计提，预计 2025 年逐步关闭杰克工厂，这将是最 后一年产生亏损。2026 年起将完全控制供 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Beidou Institute has restarted its IPO process, submitting a report to the Hunan Securities Regulatory Bureau for guidance [1][3] - Beidou Institute was established in 2016 and is a high-tech enterprise focused on the generation, measurement, and processing of radio signals, with a strong emphasis on satellite navigation and commercial aerospace [1][2] - The company has developed three main business directions: navigation simulation and testing evaluation, spatiotemporal security and enhancement, and aerospace measurement and control, serving various industries including energy, transportation, and education [1][2] Group 2 - According to the 2023 prospectus, Beidou Institute operates in a technology-intensive industry with high customer entry barriers, leveraging over 20 years of research experience in satellite navigation and aerospace measurement and control [2] - The company has significant experience in major national and provincial projects, contributing to events such as the National Day 70th Anniversary Celebration and the Boao Forum for Asia, enhancing its brand influence and social benefits [2] - Major clients include several state-owned enterprises in the defense and aerospace sectors, such as China Electronics Technology Group Corporation and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation [2] Group 3 - Beidou Institute previously attempted to go public in May 2023, planning to raise 508 million yuan for product upgrades, industrialization projects, and working capital, but later withdrew its application in September 2024 [3] - The controlling shareholder of Beidou Institute is Hunan Guoke Defense Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., holding a 44.21% stake [4]

直面产业发展第二个十年的挑战，走向成熟，需要更为规范的环境，更有针对性的政策，和更充沛的资 金 文 |《瞭望》新闻周刊记者 梁姊 宋晨 连续两年被写入政府工作报告、坐拥万亿市场规模、行业相关企业突破万家……以2015年《国家民用空 间基础设施中长期发展规划（2015—2025年）》出台为起点，经过十年发展的中国商业航天，在2024年 迎来了属于自己的高光时刻。 这一年，商业航天被首次写入政府工作报告，成为新质生产力的代表，顶层设计牵引，地方政策、政府 基金和产业资本加速入场，商业航天发展迎来源头活水；这一年，卫星互联网加速组网，可回收火箭技 术拐点在即，海南商业航天发射场投用……"十年磨一剑"的中国商业航天，从最初的"一张蓝图"，迈进 了快速增长和转型升级的关键阶段。 放眼未来，我国商业航天正处于卫星互联网大规模组网大幕拉开，可回收火箭技术拐点在即的关键时 刻，如何更快实现技术破冰和商业闭环？如何使"新增长引擎"更好发挥作用？如何缩短与世界一流水平 的差距？答案也许是更规范的发展环境，更精准的扶持政策和更充分的资金支持。 这条路注定布满荆棘，但正如航天人常说的："火箭向上飞行的每一秒，都在突破大气层的阻力。" ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a loss of 216 to 264 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 500% to 589% [6] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is 232 million yuan, with military procurement contributing 1.2265 million yuan, accounting for 0.53% of total revenue [1] - The company signed new contracts worth 559 million yuan in 2024 [5] Group 2: Order Status - As of March 31, 2025, the company has an order backlog of 340 million yuan [4] - The company has formed approximately 26 million yuan in orders related to inertial navigation products [2] - The company has received some sales orders in the international market for certain products [2] Group 3: Impact of Military Procurement Ban - The company has been banned from participating in military procurement activities since October 14, 2024, for a period of one year [4] - The ban has led to a significant reduction in order volume, impacting 2024 revenue [4] - The company is actively expanding into civilian markets to mitigate the impact of the military procurement ban [9] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on developing civilian market products such as emergency drones and low-orbit satellite terminals [7] - The company is optimizing its organizational structure and reducing personnel by approximately 20% to improve operational efficiency [6] - The company is exploring external cooperation opportunities to enhance competitiveness [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the unmanned systems, satellite communication, and radar detection industries [3] - The company aims to leverage emerging industries like low-altitude economy and intelligent driving for future growth [6] - The company is committed to continuous innovation and product development to maintain market competitiveness [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.82% closing at 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72% at 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.63% at 2064.71 points [1][12] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3084 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 116.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included defense and military, electric equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, and automotive, with gains of 4.80%, 2.69%, 2.24%, 2.08%, and 1.91% respectively [1][12] - The sectors that experienced declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceuticals, public utilities, and beauty care, with decreases of 0.49%, 0.27%, 0.26%, and 0.04% respectively [1] Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors included aircraft carriers, top ten military industrial groups, large aircraft, stock trading software, military-civilian integration, TWS headsets, wireless charging, satellite internet, and satellite navigation [2][11] - Conversely, sectors such as gold and jewelry, generic drugs, and biological breeding experienced pullbacks [11]

Core Insights - Emerging market investment is likened to constructing skyscrapers in geologically active zones, requiring both the harnessing of energy from tectonic movements and the management of seismic risks [2] - Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment has developed a three-dimensional analytical framework to deconstruct the risk-return characteristics of emerging markets into quantifiable, hedgeable, and manageable investment elements [2] Risk Assessment - Risk assessment is a prerequisite for investment decisions, with the team creating an emerging market country scorecard that includes 12 core indicators such as political stability, external debt structure, and current account balance [2] - The team quantifies a country's repayment ability using the ratio of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads to months of foreign exchange reserves, and predicts political risk premiums through election cycles and policy continuity indices [2] - In a specific investment decision regarding a Latin American country, the team identified an inflation rate inversion beyond historical thresholds, combined with rising social unrest indices, leading to a decision to limit allocation to 30% of the benchmark, successfully avoiding subsequent currency crises [2] Asset Allocation - Asset allocation should establish a robust structure, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment employing a "core-satellite" strategy, focusing core positions on consumption and financial sectors while satellite positions capture cyclical opportunities in technology and resources [2] - The team has developed a unique "moat width" assessment model that considers local advantages, supply chain control, and government relationship resilience in industry selection [2] Liquidity Management - Liquidity management is a critical line of defense in risk control, with emerging markets exhibiting a "dual-track" liquidity characteristic, showing significant price differences between official and offshore markets, as well as between large-cap and small-cap stocks [3] - The team has constructed a liquidity stress testing model to simulate asset liquidity under extreme scenarios such as capital control upgrades and foreign capital withdrawal [3] - During a recent volatility in the Indian stock market, the portfolio utilized a pre-configured liquidity buffer to increase positions in quality assets during market panic, turning the crisis into an opportunity for excess returns [3] Currency Risk Hedging - Currency risk hedging reflects a refined strategy, with the team moving away from a single derivative hedging model to develop a "currency basket + natural hedge" tool [3] - This approach involves configuring a basket of currencies such as USD, EUR, and RMB based on export structures, while also holding stocks of resource-exporting companies to hedge against local currency depreciation [3] - During the Turkish lira crisis, this strategy kept the portfolio's currency risk exposure net below 5%, and the holdings in energy companies benefited from enhanced export competitiveness due to lira depreciation, partially offsetting exchange losses [3] Investment Philosophy - The essence of emerging market investment is a dynamic game of risk and return, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment's practices demonstrating that systematic evaluation frameworks, structured allocation tools, and refined risk control systems can help investors balance geopolitical changes and economic growth potential [3] - This investment philosophy is characterized by neither blind risk-taking nor excessive caution, but rather achieving optimal solutions for risk premiums and return elasticity through data-driven decision-making [3]

"宏观投资的关键点之一：政策不一定要成功，只要它足够激进，市场就会剧烈反应，而那正是投资机 会所在。" "你必须相信，任何事情都有可能发生。你永远不知道变化什么时候会来，但你得随时准备好去应对。" "很多人喜欢填字游戏、打桥牌，但对我来说，投资就是最好的智力游戏。" "投资的本质：只做最有把握的交易。" "我是一个谨慎的乐观主义者 。" "乔治 · 索罗斯的世界观与众不同，他天生就是一个市场捕猎者。但我认为，他做过最伟大的投资，就 是发现了斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒。" "人生中真正重要的，是那些一直在你身边的人：是他们在你低谷时拉你一把，在你得意时提醒你别 飘。" 这是去年 10 月现任美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在美国大选结果出来之前的一场 对话。时隔半年多回头看，还是很有意思。 过去三个多月，围绕特朗普政府新一轮关税政策的争议持续发酵，市场波动剧烈，贸易预期反复，身为 财长的贝森特一度存在感有限。但就像摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙对他的评价，"是个有分寸的人"。 在刚刚举行的中美经贸会谈中，作为美方代表的贝森特，显示了在核心决策圈的份量。 斯科特 · 贝森特在任职财长之前，是 ...

研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|卫星农业专题 2025-05-12 卫星遥感监测报告及北美播种环境分析 内容摘要 本期报告处于南美定产，北美播种的南北交替空白阶段，南美产量无太大波动，延续 前期判断，后期变化概率较低，无特殊情况便不再对南美进行产量预估。北美目前播 种还在进行，作物指标难以评测，为力求精准，也不进行产量预估，但对整个北美当 前播种环境进行了详细分析。结果显示，美国整体旱涝分化明显，中部南达科他和内 布拉斯加旱情较重，东南部棉花各主产区涝渍明显。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 目录 | ...