Macro News - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal divisions, with some board members advocating for a shift away from the unclear "potential inflation" indicator to focus more on overall inflation and inflation expectations, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October [1] Market Analysis - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon conclude, which could benefit risk assets while negatively impacting safe-haven assets [2] - U.S. July core CPI inflation rate has increased due to import tariffs raising commodity prices, but the potential downward revision of non-farm employment numbers from May to July suggests a "stagflation" scenario, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, October, and December [2] Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, while easing market risk sentiment ahead of the U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting has led to a high-low fluctuation in gold prices [3] - International gold prices closed at $3,355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%, with an intraday high of $3,370; domestic gold futures prices are experiencing frequent fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [3] Investment Strategy - It is suggested to construct a bull spread using call options when prices pull back to key support levels, effectively lowering the cost of long positions [4] Silver Market Dynamics - A weak U.S. dollar is supporting silver prices, along with continued inflows into ETFs; however, weak industrial demand makes the market susceptible to fluctuations driven by investor sentiment [5] - International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, reaching a nearly three-week high, with domestic silver prices following the international trend [5] - In the short term, silver prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, but there is overall upward potential, suggesting the use of bull spread strategies to capture segment opportunities [5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but slightly below the market expectation of 2.72%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.3% and above the expected 0.16%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.9% and the market expectation of 3.04%[2] Key Contributors and Trends - The high CPI in July was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and clothing prices, while energy and rent prices saw a significant decline[2] - The market has adjusted its interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of three rate cuts this year increasing significantly, although the company maintains a view of only one cut[2] Economic Indicators - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%[2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 115,000[6] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI's rise was mainly due to service price increases, with core services up by 0.3% month-on-month, while core goods remained stable at 0.2%[7] - The rental prices, a significant component of CPI, showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, down from the previous 3.8%[6] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns about potential second-round inflation risks due to new tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, which could affect inflation expectations and trade prospects[2][6] - The ongoing high inflation and slowing economic growth signal potential stagflation risks in the U.S. economy[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer - end inflation in the US, but due to the weakening of the US employment market, the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts. Coupled with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. The support and resistance levels for different precious metal products are also provided [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 774.71 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 7.31 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 32,602.00, and the open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 32,602.00 on 2025 - 08 - 13, with a change of - 182.00 compared to the previous day and 864.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,407.00, with a change of 7.40 compared to the previous day and - 28.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 17,739.00, and the open interest was - 7,223.00 [1]. - International gold (London gold spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,343.30 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.90 compared to the previous day and 21.10 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 9,300.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 42.00 compared to the previous day and 113.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 415,237.00, and the open interest was 365,333.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: The trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 302,236.00, with a change of 124,448.00 compared to the previous day and 74,550.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 3,541,500.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 38.55 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.71 compared to the previous day and 0.61 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 10,173.00, and the open interest was - 30,858.00 [1]. - International silver (London silver spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 37.69 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.91 compared to the previous day and 1.26 compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - **US**: Trump may appoint the next Fed chair slightly earlier, with the candidates narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest - rate level should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. The US Treasury Secretary pressured before the "Trump - Putin meeting" and threatened to increase sanctions against Russia. Trump said that if things go well, there will be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the core CPI annual rate in the US consumer - end inflation in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm employment in June and July in the US, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, and the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts in September, October, and December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank suspended interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 28%. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in the eurozone (Germany) in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates about once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) (core CPI) in the UK in August was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits decreased continuously from June to July, so the Bank of England may cut interest rates about once again before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government - bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The annual rate of the core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), which was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, so the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 and the resistance level around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which has reached its 17th all-time high this year amid rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, it also highlights potential hidden risks in the market as identified by Morgan Stanley, suggesting that investors should be cautious and consider hedging strategies instead of chasing further gains [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has accumulated over an 8% increase year-to-date, driven by better-than-expected Q2 earnings, robust economic performance, and the ongoing AI boom [3]. - As of the latest close, the Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points (1.04%) to 44,922.27, the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points (0.14%) to 21,713.14, and the S&P 500 gained 20.82 points (0.32%) to 6,466.58 [2]. Economic Signals - Morgan Stanley's report warns of three hidden risks in the U.S. stock market, including a cooling labor market, mixed corporate earnings, and rising price pressures [3]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 105,000, raising concerns about the labor market's momentum [3]. - The JOLTs survey indicated that job openings fell to 7.44 million, with a ratio of job openings to job seekers at approximately 1:1, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth [3]. Corporate Earnings Analysis - Despite a strong earnings season, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, a closer examination reveals that only the technology, communication services, and financial sectors achieved double-digit growth [4][6]. - The "Magnificent Seven" companies are projected to see a 26% increase in earnings, while the remaining 493 companies show almost no growth year-over-year [7]. Inflation and Stagflation Risks - Concerns about inflation and the potential for stagflation are highlighted, which could dampen the market's upward momentum [8]. - The ongoing trade war and recent tariff announcements are expected to increase effective tariff rates to nearly 18%, potentially exacerbating economic conditions despite current optimism [9]. Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley advises investors to look beyond superficial market gains and increase exposure to tangible assets such as gold, real estate investment trusts, and energy infrastructure for better risk management [11]. - The firm also recommends diversifying investments into medium- to long-term investment-grade bonds, international stocks including emerging markets, and alternative investments like hedge funds and private equity to mitigate volatility [12].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong second-quarter earnings, and robust economic performance, despite warnings of underlying risks from Morgan Stanley [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has achieved its 17th closing high of the year, reflecting a strong market performance [1]. - As of the latest close, the Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points (1.04%), the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points (0.14%), and the S&P 500 gained 20.82 points (0.32%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% year-to-date, supported by better-than-expected earnings and ongoing interest in artificial intelligence [3]. - However, concerns are growing regarding the cooling labor market, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 105,000 [4][5]. Group 3: Earnings Analysis - Despite a strong earnings season, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, only the technology, communication services, and financial sectors showed double-digit growth [6]. - The report highlights that while the "Magnificent Seven" companies are projected to see a 26% profit growth, the remaining 493 companies have shown almost no growth year-over-year [6]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Risks - Morgan Stanley warns of potential "stagflation" risks, with rising inflation concerns due to ongoing trade tensions and increased tariffs, which could impact economic stability [6][7]. - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to nearly 18%, almost double the previous level of 10%, raising concerns about future economic conditions [7]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley advises investors to diversify their portfolios by increasing exposure to tangible assets such as gold, real estate investment trusts, and energy infrastructure [7]. - The firm also recommends investing in medium to long-term investment-grade bonds, international stocks including emerging markets, and alternative investments like hedge funds and private equity to mitigate risks [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, with support around $3200 per ounce [1] - The upward momentum for gold prices is contingent on additional positive factors, while previous drivers such as central bank purchases and investment demand are losing marginal effectiveness [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process, frequent geopolitical crises, and a declining dollar exchange rate are preventing significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth primarily correcting distortions from the first quarter rather than indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in domestic demand since Q4 2022 [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a downward revision of previous months' data [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has raised inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in effective tax rates has further escalated inflation rates in import-intensive categories such as furniture and clothing [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Following the release of July's employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with discussions of potential rate cuts [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 94.1%, with a 62.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut by October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to rising gold prices [5] - Investment demand for gold reached 477.2 tons in Q2, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - In July, there was a further inflow of $3.2 billion into physically-backed gold ETFs [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could drain liquidity from the financial system [6] - The cash balance in the Treasury General Account is expected to rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of dollar liquidity issues [6] - A decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements may lead to pressure in the financing market [6]

还在被美联储摇摆不定的 "加息降息" 言论绕晕？市场风向已悄然转变！曾经被各种 "口头干预" 搅动的 "政策噪音" 正逐渐退居幕后，取而代之的，是所有投资者都看得见、摸得着的硬核经济数据。随着美 国最新的核心通胀数据再次超预期，一场围绕着 "通胀" 的交易主线正重新夺回主导权！ 改变就在一瞬间！美国发布的关键 CPI、PCE 通胀指标连续超预期，终于让所有人认清现实：通胀比想 象得更顽固！ 一、政策噪音曾让黄金 "晕了头" 回想半年多前，市场焦点都在美联储官员们反复无常的 "通胀即将下降"、"加息周期已结束" 等口头表 态中不停打转。这些言论看似关键，却让市场波动变得难以捉摸： 预期差游戏： 市场不断预判美联储态度变化，稍有风吹草动就引发大起大落。 "狼来了" 效应： 多次 "转向" 暗示最终未兑现，政策信号可信度大打折扣。 短视交易盛行： 投资者被迫追逐 "短平快"，黄金这类长期资产也沦为 "消息刺激" 工具，偏离其固有价 值逻辑。 总结：美联储 "口头预期管理" 成了市场噪音源，黄金波动加剧但难有方向。 二、数据主线归来：通胀数据决定黄金命运 最新事实： 6 月美国核心 CPI 同比增长 3.8%，远超市 ...

亢奋的市场情绪 "市场情绪意外看涨，简直像在说'关税算什么，谁在乎？'"Premier Miton Investors首席投资官尼尔·伯雷 尔（Neil Birrell）表示，"股市对当前经济现实有种脱节感，空气中弥漫着一股乐观或亢奋的情绪。" 周二美国温和的通胀报告消除了市场对滞胀的担忧，也为美联储降息扫除了障碍，此后全球投资者纷纷 涌入风险最高的资产。 股市飙升至历史新高，小盘股、新兴市场和半导体板块延续涨势。尽管特朗普的关税政策可能扰乱全球 贸易，但隐含波动率指标大幅下降。加密货币涨势也在扩大，以太坊过去一个月累计上涨55%。迷因股 也再度走红。 这些走势凸显了过去几个月强劲的乐观情绪。对即将到来的贸易战的担忧曾在4月份引发抛售，但现在 已经让位于对经济能够继续强劲增长的信心。最新一轮涨势的动力来自美联储即将降息的新希望。 这在很大程度上得益于强劲的盈利缓解了市场对这些公司在人工智能上过度支出的担忧。德意志银行策 略师分析显示，大型科技股几乎独力推动了二季度盈利增长，贡献了标普500指数整体利润增幅的 90%。 彭博策略师马克·卡德莫尔（Mark Cudmore）认为，"跟这轮股市涨势作对是愚蠢的，即便 ...

美国劳工部12日发布的最新报告显示，7月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，继续保持6月的涨幅；而剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月核 心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 在很多媒体和专家看来，自4月起连续反弹的通胀数据表明，美国政府的关税政策对物价的拉升效应正在越来越全面地显现出来。 △《纽约时报》报道截图 关税成本由谁"消化"？ 继对多国加征钢铝和汽车关税以及10%的普遍基准关税后，美国政府最初于4月宣布并在随后几经延期的"对等关税"也于本月7日正式生效。 世界贸易组织（WTO）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）8日公布的数据显示，随着新关税的实施，美国对全球所有产品的贸易加权平均关税税率已达20.1%， 大幅高于年初本届美国政府上台前的2.4%，为110多年来的最高水平。 △新加坡亚洲新闻台报道截图 尽管美国政府一再声称加征关税是为了让那些"占美国便宜"的贸易伙伴买单，但种种分析数据都显示，实际税负已被逐渐转嫁至美国国内。 从供给侧看，美国国家零售联合会（NRF）日前发布报告预计，美国今年全年进口量将比去年下降5.6%。 NRF副总裁戈尔德警告称，受关税影响，未来美国市场上的商品种类将 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The latest report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same increase as in June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June [1] - Analysts suggest that the inflation data, which has been rebounding since April, reflects the increasing impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on prices [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Trade - Following the imposition of tariffs on various countries, the U.S. government's trade-weighted average tariff rate has reached 20.1%, significantly higher than the 2.4% before the current administration took office, marking the highest level in over 110 years [4] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 5.6% decline in U.S. import volumes for the year, indicating a reduction in the variety of goods available in the U.S. market due to tariffs [6] Group 3: Consumer Price Burden - Goldman Sachs reports that consumers have already absorbed about 22% of the tariff costs as of the end of June, with this figure potentially rising to 67% if the tariff policies continue [7] - High inflation levels are expected to persist, with projections indicating that the overall CPI and core CPI will rise to 2.9% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, by the end of the year [11] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Employment - The Yale University Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing the average American household approximately $2,400 this year. The report highlights significant price hikes in imported goods, particularly footwear and clothing, projected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [15] - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations. This trend indicates a cooling labor market, with over half of industries reportedly starting layoffs due to rising costs from tariffs [18][20]