中国又抛美债了！7月17日美国财政部数据砸出来，5月咱们又减持9亿美元，虽然数字看着不多，但架不住这是连续第三个月"下刀"，三个月累计砍掉280 亿。更有意思的是，就在数据公布前几天，美国前财长保尔森刚火急火燎跑来中国，据说专门聊了美债的事儿。结果呢？中国这边数据一出来，等于直接给 了美国一句：没门！ 现在美国的尴尬在于：一方面特朗普还在威胁对中国加关税，另一方面又派保尔森来"示好"，这种"又打又拉"的套路，中国早就看透了。你以为还是十年 前？中国现在手里的牌多了去了：黄金储备世界第一，人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）用户破70国，连沙特卖石油都开始收人民币了。美国财政部长耶伦前 段时间急得直喊："中国抛美债会引发全球金融动荡！" 但问题是，中国抛美债是"被动防御"，谁让你美国把美债玩成了"定时炸弹"？ 为啥保尔森这时候急着来华？表面上说是"修复中美关系"，给特朗普政府"探风"，实际上老狐狸心里门儿清：美债快撑不住了！要知道，从2008年金融危机 开始，中国就劝美国：你搞财政扩张悠着点，别瞎印钱！结果美国两党政府当耳旁风，现在债务规模飙到34万亿美元，穆迪刚下调美债评级，10年期美债收 益率冲破4.5%警戒线， ...

日经225指数期货涨幅扩大至1.7%，此前特朗普宣布与日本达成贸易协议，关税税率较此前降低10%。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has been operating in a bearish trend since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% to 1.67% due to strong macroeconomic data and robust stock market performance [1] - Economic resilience is evident, with GDP growth rates of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, leading to a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating that a 4.7% growth rate in the second half is sufficient to meet the annual target of 5% [2] - Consumption policies have shown significant effects, with retail sales in key categories such as home appliances and communication equipment growing over 10% year-on-year, while investment in high-tech manufacturing continues to outpace overall growth [2][3] Group 2 - The overall economic structure is shifting towards high-quality development, with manufacturing increasingly focusing on technology-intensive sectors, while real estate investment remains weak, with a cumulative decline of 11.2% in real estate development investment [2] - The macroeconomic policy will maintain a steady growth tone, with a focus on promoting consumption and addressing "involution" in the market, which is expected to lead to a moderate rise in consumer prices [3] - The liquidity in the market is reasonably ample, which is favorable for the bond market, but the strong economic resilience and low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term suggest a continued oscillation in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to remain in the range of 1.6% to 1.7% [3]

Group A: Historical Review - The change in the bond yield curve's steepness is different from unilateral changes in bond yields, as it measures the relative changes in yields of bonds with different maturities [2] - Historical periods of flattening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include April 1988 to 1989, October 1992 to December 1994, August 2003 to June 2006, December 2013 to December 2018, and March 2021 to March 2023, often corresponding with the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycles [2][3] - The flattening of the yield curve typically occurs before the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, while the end of the flattening often coincides with or slightly precedes the end of rate hikes [3] Group B: Yield Curve Dynamics - During rate hike cycles, short-term Treasury yields rise, and when long-term yields also increase, the short-term yields tend to rise more significantly, contributing to the flattening of the yield curve [3][17] - The behavior of long-term yields can vary, sometimes showing volatility or decline, which can lead to a flattening of the curve due to differing influences on short and long-term rates [3][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield closely follows the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, while the 10-year yield reflects broader macroeconomic conditions and inflation expectations [4][17] Group C: Steepening of the Yield Curve - Historical periods of steepening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include March 1989 to September 1992, May 2000 to August 2003, February 2007 to December 2009, and January 2019 to April 2021, typically aligning with Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [13][15] - The onset of steepening often occurs before the actual rate cuts begin, indicating market anticipation of monetary policy changes [13][15] - In rate cut cycles, both short and long-term yields generally decline, but short-term yields tend to decrease more significantly, contributing to the steepening of the yield curve [13][17] Group D: Economic and Monetary Policy Interactions - The changes in the yield curve are closely linked to monetary policy and economic cycles, with flattening periods usually corresponding to rate hike cycles and steepening periods to rate cut cycles [17] - Short-term yields play a dominant role in shaping the yield curve during these cycles, with their movements significantly influencing the overall curve dynamics [17] - Discrepancies between economic cycles and monetary policy cycles can lead to divergent movements in long-term yields, especially during transitional periods between rate changes [17]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 23 日星期三 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日生猪期货主力合约震荡偏强，LH2509合约日涨幅0.21%，收于14380元/吨；LH2 | | | | 511合约日涨幅0.69%，收于13960元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、22日全国生猪均价14.34元/公斤，较前一日跌0.05元/公斤；预计今日早间猪价 | | | | 弱稳为主，东北微跌至13.8-14.5元/公斤，山东跌至14.3-14.6元/公斤，河南跌至1 | | | | 4.2-14.7元/公斤，四川稳定至13.5-14元/公斤，广东稳定至15.6-16.2元/公斤，广 | | | | 西稳定至13.9-14.4元/公斤。 | | | | 2、官方口径显示我国25年6月能繁母猪存 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年7月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：国产糖即将清库，目前消费旺季，市场销售较好，表现为内强外弱，合约近强远弱。09 合约临近交割月，目前贴水三百左右，未来一个多月可能的情况是现货略微下降，期货09可能略 往上，完成期现价差回归。09预计在5800-6000区间运行。 2、基差：柳州现货6120，基差297（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至5月底24/25榨季工业库存304.83万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加，短期 配额外进口偏少。美国可口可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年 ...

周三（7月23日）亚太盘初，道指期货和标普500股指期货至多涨0.1%，纳指期货跌0.1%，罗素2000股 指期货涨0.22%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of stablecoins in cross-border payments and their potential to address traditional payment pain points, while also highlighting the challenges and regulatory considerations they face [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies or assets, maintaining price stability through an anchoring mechanism and utilizing blockchain technology for decentralized, immutable, and traceable transactions [1]. - The market primarily focuses on the token characteristics of stablecoins, while the process of tokenization, which links the value of underlying assets to the crypto tokens, is equally important [2]. - Different types of stablecoins exist based on their underlying reserves, including those pegged to fiat currencies, commodities, crypto assets, and algorithmic models [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Technical Challenges - The recent U.S. legislation requires stablecoins to be integrated into anti-money laundering frameworks, emphasizing the need for audits and regulatory compliance [3]. - Stablecoins pose challenges to traditional financial systems, particularly in foreign exchange management, and their primary use in crypto asset trading has limited relevance to real-world transactions [3]. - The integration of on-chain and off-chain transaction rules remains a significant technical hurdle for stablecoins [3]. Group 3: Market Adoption and Alternatives - Non-financial enterprises are increasingly interested in stablecoins as a means to drive financial innovation, particularly in areas like third-party payments and small cross-border remittances [3]. - Traditional financial institutions are also showing interest in adopting stablecoins for cross-border payment scenarios, indicating a shift towards embracing new technologies [3]. - Alternative solutions, such as the "Cross-Border Payment Link" between mainland China and Hong Kong, demonstrate that improved cross-border payment experiences can be achieved without relying on blockchain or stablecoins [4].

近年来，货币政策充分发挥结构功能，积极引导金融资源投向科技创新、绿色发展、普惠小微、三农、 养老事业等重点领域。金融"五篇大文章"领域贷款总量增长，覆盖面扩大。央行数据显示，5月末，金 融"五篇大文章"贷款余额103.3万亿元，同比增长14%，其中，科技、绿色、普惠、养老、数字贷款余额 同比分别增长12%、27.4%、11.2%、38%和9.5%，显著高于同期7.1%的全部贷款增速。今年上半年，货 币政策加力支持金融"五篇大文章"重点领域。信贷政策方面，完善金融"五篇大文章"考核评估机制，形 成政策引导、资金支持、效果评估的工作闭环。结构性货币政策工具方面，设立服务消费与养老再贷 款，增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 今年以来，货币政策基调转为"适度宽松"。5月初出台了全面降准和降息的一揽子政策措施，从政策效 果看，社会流动性加快扩张，社会融资成本进一步下降。在更加积极有为的宏观政策助力下，我国无惧 外部"风高浪急"，上半年经济运行顶住压力稳中向好，高质量发展取得新的成效。 货币政策有力支持"稳增长"。稳固的经济底盘和稳定的经济增长是高质量发展的前提和基础。作为推动 经济增长的 ...

-0.04% -0.07% -0.04% -0.01% 兑 瑞郎 兑 瑞郎 兑 日元 -0.07% -0.04% -0.05% 兑 加元 兑 日元 -0.08% -0.08% 兑 欧元 -0.08% 兑 日元 -0.12% @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 金十图示：2025年07月23日（周三）各大货币对表现 ...