Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of crude oil in the fourth quarter are bearish, but it is difficult for prices to decline significantly due to multiple supports [1] - The price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak but difficult to fall sharply. The support level is around $60 - 62 per barrel for Brent, and in extreme cases, it may reach above $72 per barrel [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Core Views - Macro - level: The global economy shows a pattern of "weak recovery but no recession". The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in September, October, and December will reduce the holding cost of the commodity market, provide liquidity support for crude oil, and prevent a sharp decline due to macro - pessimism [1] - Demand side: Demand remains resilient as the macro - economy is not in recession. High cracking spreads of refined oil products and inventory replenishment in the US and Europe, along with global off - balance - sheet demand, form double supports [2] - Supply side: The implementation rate of OPEC+ production increase is difficult to improve significantly, and the incremental potential of US shale oil is limited. The actual supply increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the theoretical value [3] - Global pattern: The regional supply - demand differentiation will continue, with tight supply in the US and Europe and relatively loose supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. Geopolitical conflicts may break the loose supply expectation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [3] 1.3 Market Outlook - The core operating range for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is $60 - 70 per barrel, with the price fluctuating due to short - term macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances [7] - Investors are advised to go long when Brent is at $60 - 62 per barrel and go short at $68 - 70 per barrel, with stop - loss levels set below $58 per barrel and above $72 per barrel respectively [7] Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors, showing a volatile and weak trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] - In July, the market was driven by a mix of long and short factors; in August, it was first bearish and then bullish; in September, the market focus switched rapidly between long and short factors [10] Chapter 3: Key Focus Points 3.1 Macro - level - The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 (25BP in September, and expected 25BP each in October and December) will reduce the holding cost of crude oil, and the non - commercial net long positions of WTI have significant room for replenishment [16] - The inflation pressure in the US and the eurozone has not completely subsided. Crude oil, as an anti - inflation commodity, has room for valuation repair [18] - Attention should be paid to the risk of "policy effectiveness verification". If the US manufacturing PMI is weak and non - farm employment decreases, it may suppress crude oil demand expectations; otherwise, the OVX index may rise [20] - External pressure on the Fed has weakened market confidence in policy independence, increasing the "dollar credit weakening" expectation. The short - term crude oil price is more driven by macro - sentiment [21] 3.2 Demand side - In the US and Europe, the cracking spreads of diesel are high, inventories are low, and refinery capacity is constrained. The expected lower temperature in Europe in the fourth quarter will increase heating demand and support cracking spreads [25] - Global off - balance - sheet demand, including inventory replenishment in China, the US, and floating storage in Russia and Iran, will absorb 30 - 43 barrels per day of supply in the fourth quarter, slowing down the inventory accumulation [29] 3.3 Supply side - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 13.7 barrels per day starting from October, but the implementation rate is expected to be around 75% in the fourth quarter, with an actual increase of about 80 barrels per day due to capacity and policy constraints [34] - The incremental potential of US shale oil is limited due to profit and cost constraints. The output increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than 10 barrels per day [36] 3.4 Global Pattern - The global crude oil market will maintain a pattern of "tight in the US and Europe, and relatively loose in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific" in the fourth quarter, but geopolitical risks may change the situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [40] - The supply from Russia is at risk due to short - term facility disturbances and long - term regulatory and tariff pressures. The restart of the Iran - Israel conflict may disrupt the supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [42] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Overview - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market showed a pattern of "supply expansion, demand differentiation, and increased short - term surplus pressure" [44] - On the supply side, OPEC+ completed the voluntary production cut exit plan and started to increase production in September. Non - OPEC supply remained resilient [44] - On the demand side, the global growth rate slowed down, and institutional forecasts were divergent. Asia - Pacific became the core of growth, and the demand for chemical raw materials increased [44] - There was a production - demand surplus in 2025, and the Brent price is expected to oscillate between $55 - 75 per barrel in the long - term [45] 4.2 Global Crude Oil Industry Chain Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil monthly spreads showed a significant differentiation pattern. Brent and WTI maintained a slight Backwardation structure, while Dubai and domestic SC crude oil monthly spreads were weak [48][49] - The regional spreads of crude oil showed a pattern of "strengthening across the Atlantic and reversing in Eurasia". The Brent - WTI spread strengthened, and the Dubai - WTI spread reversed from a premium to a discount [52] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil cracking spreads showed a clear differentiation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline". The diesel spread may remain high in the short - term, while the gasoline spread is difficult to improve [55] 4.4 Scenario Deduction - Base scenario (probability 60%): The fourth - quarter crude oil market will show a pattern of "basic supply - demand balance, macro - level support but lack of demand highlights". Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel [73][74] - Downward scenario (probability 25%): Triggered by excessive supply growth and weakening demand buffer, Brent crude oil may fall to $58 - 60 per barrel [75] - Upward scenario (probability 15%): Triggered by the resonance of sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic recovery, Brent crude oil may break through $75 per barrel [76] 4.5 Core Conclusions and Tracking Suggestions - The essence of the fourth - quarter crude oil market is the dynamic balance between the actual supply increase and off - balance - sheet demand buffer. Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel without sudden geopolitical supply disruptions or excessive inventory accumulation [78] - Attention should be paid to the risks of economic recession, OPEC+ over - production, and shale oil incremental increase, which may lead to a downward break of the oil price [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price showed a weak trend this week due to weaker - than - expected demand and increased supply from new device launches. The supply - side pressure will continue to increase, and the supply - demand structure is expected to weaken, leading to a downward - trending market price. - Next week, the cost side may see oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and cooling expectations. The supply side will face greater pressure as more capacity is set to restart than to be under maintenance in October. The demand side is expected to have a light sales performance during and after the holiday. Port inventory is likely to rise slightly in the short term. - Overall, MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main View - This week, MEG prices were weak. The reasons were weaker - than - expected demand and new device launches. In September, the downstream polyester and weaving industries had a slow start - up speed. There are still multiple new devices planned for trial runs and some long - shut - down devices are set to restart, increasing supply - side pressure. - Next week, on the cost side, geopolitical disturbances may boost oil prices, but cooling expectations could lead to a fluctuating oil price. On the supply side, more capacity will restart than be under maintenance in October. On the demand side, a 1.1 - million - ton polyester device in South China is restarting and ramping up, with no other major devices planned for restart or maintenance. Some downstream industries plan to reduce their loads during the holiday. In terms of port inventory, imports are expected to be concentrated around the National Day, and port shipments will decline during the holiday, so short - term port inventory may rise slightly. - MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: New device launches suppressed the futures market. This week, the trading volume was 544,000 lots, and the open interest was 326,000 lots (a decrease of 31,000 lots). On September 29, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.38%. The settlement price on September 29 was 4,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.56% [8][11][13]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4,363 yuan/ton on September 22, and the low - end was 4,270 yuan/ton on September 23. In different regions, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan decreased by 31 yuan/ton, 61.8 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively. The foreign - market price was 510.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 81.25 yuan/ton, compared with 100 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 85 - 110 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: From September 24 - 29, the comprehensive MEG operating rate was 69.98%, compared with 70.80% from September 17 - 23. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 74.39%, 63.49%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, the Zhonghai Shell device returned to normal after a short - term load fluctuation due to an upstream device failure, and the Fujian United and Sanjiang devices adjusted their loads slightly [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: The price of thermal coal increased slightly, while the MEG spot price continued to weaken. This week, the profit of coal - based MEG was further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production were - 1,532.58 yuan/ton, 295.13 yuan/ton, and - 128.15 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,495.10 yuan/ton, 354.69 yuan/ton, and - 139 US dollars/ton in the previous period [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: There will be many foreign - market arrivals during the holiday, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the MEG port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. As of September 25, the MEG port inventory was 398,500 tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 8.53%. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangyin, Taicang, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Changshu changed by 14,300 tons, - 2,000 tons, 10,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and - 4,000 tons respectively [35][37]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The slow progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations poses potential support to the oil market due to geopolitical and supply risks [43]. - **Supply and Demand of Downstream Products**: - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 88.35%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.49%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.63%, 1.26%, and 2.23% respectively. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.82%, and the average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region decreased by 0.84%. - As the long holiday approaches, the sentiment of the polyester downstream has changed, leading to an increase in procurement and polyester sales. From September 22 - 28, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be over 70%. - Due to polyester promotions, downstream enterprises stocked up, and the inventory of polyester filament decreased this week. As of September 25, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 18.80 days, 25.70 days, and 29.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber remained stable, and the inventory days of polyester chips decreased by 0.69 days [47][56][60].

Market Overview - Global major stock markets continued to rise, supported by unexpectedly strong U.S. consumer spending data, alleviating concerns about economic resilience and improving overall risk sentiment [1] - U.S. stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices performing particularly well, while European markets also recorded widespread increases [1] Key Market Movements - S&P 500 Index rose by 0.28% to 6,715.50 points - Dow Jones Index increased by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points - Nasdaq 100 Index gained 0.36% to 24,815.75 points - Russell 2000 Index climbed 0.97% to 2,434.32 points - The rise in U.S. consumer spending data eased direct concerns about growth resilience, supporting the stock market [5] - U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable after earlier fluctuations, providing breathing room for the market and improving sentiment towards risk assets [5] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.45% to $65.21 per barrel, driven by supply risks from ongoing export restrictions in Russia and concerns over Middle Eastern supply [5] - Gold futures increased by 1.02% to $3,775.30 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation risks [5] European Market Performance - The FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.77% to 9,284.83 points - DAX (Germany) increased by 0.87% to 23,739.47 points - CAC 40 (France) gained 0.97% to 7,870.68 points - The European Stoxx 50 Index rose by 1.01% to 5,449.70 points, reflecting strong performance in energy and commodity stocks due to rising oil prices [5] Notable Stock Movements - Electronic Arts (EA) surged approximately 15% on reports of a potential acquisition offer, sparking speculation and interest in the gaming sector [5] - Boeing (BA) rose about 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [5] - NIO (NIO) fell approximately 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimism regarding policy support [5] Upcoming Focus - Market attention is shifting towards macroeconomic data, including key U.S. inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, which will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [6] - The commodity market may remain volatile in response to oil supply disruptions and demand hopes, with gold potentially attracting safe-haven funds if inflation surprises or geopolitical tensions escalate [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical concerns and adding downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - The negotiation on the US government spending agreement has not made progress, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and further suppressing oil prices [3]. - It is expected that crude oil will operate at a low level today, with short - term trading in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump got support from Netanyahu on the Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas' stance is uncertain; the meeting on avoiding a US government shutdown made no progress; OPEC+ may approve a new round of production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5, which is bearish [3]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.48 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.54 per barrel, with a basis of $24.46 per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 177,000 barrels in the week ending September 19; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels as of September 26, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is above the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 16, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month. Although this may lead to an oversupply, it also raises concerns about whether member countries' production capacity has reached its limit. Analysts believe that it is most likely for OPEC+ to decide on an 11 - month production increase of 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices are still expected to rise monthly and quarterly [5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the export of crude oil from northern Iraq to Turkish ports via pipeline has resumed [5]. - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian buyers in November by 20 - 40 cents per barrel [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The EU has not reached a unified opinion on banning Russian oil imports [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US government has a high risk of shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases; the US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, 489.1 yuan, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (0.93%), $0.74 (1.14%), 0.20 yuan (0.04%), and - $0.08 (- 0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (2.12%), $0.74 (1.14%), $0.05 (0.07%), $0.63 (0.95%), and - $0.09 (- 0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 98,709, an increase of 16,865; as of September 23, it was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 232,171, an increase of 22,593; as of September 23, it was 220,579, a decrease of 11,592 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - **Asphalt**: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - **Aluminum**: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - **Zinc**: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - **Lead**: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - **Tin**: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - **Other Metals** - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - **Styrene**: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - **Eggs**: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The US government shutdown crisis and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to robust economic and employment data, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel, and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Domestic Gold**: On September 29, 2025, the futures closing price was 866.52 yuan/g, an increase of 10.46 yuan from the previous day and 11.08 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai gold closing price was 862.50 yuan/g, an increase of 9.60 yuan from the previous day and 12.92 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 5.86 yuan [1]. - **Domestic Silver**: The futures closing price was 10,939 yuan/kg, an increase of 307 yuan from the previous day and 590 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai silver closing price was 10,878 yuan/kg, an increase of 327 yuan from the previous day and 603 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 538,718 units, a decrease of 159,414 units from the previous day and 9,610 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 61 yuan [1]. - **International Gold**: The COMEX futures closing price was 3,862.90 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 73.10 US dollars from the previous day and 143.50 US dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 3,769.85 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 163.70 US dollars from the previous week; the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 994.56 tons, a decrease of 6.01 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 36.05 US dollars [1]. - **International Silver**: The COMEX futures closing price was 47.11 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.74 US dollars from the previous day and 3.75 US dollars from the previous week; the London silver spot price was 46.95 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 4.72 US dollars from the previous week; the iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,521.35 tons, an increase of 159.51 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 0.16 US dollars [1]. Price Ratio and Other Related Data - The price ratio of gold to silver: Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 79.29, a decrease of 1.55 from the previous day and 3.40 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 82.00, an increase of 0.26 from the previous day and a decrease of 3.77 from the previous week [1]. Other Commodity and Market Data - ICE Brent crude oil was 66.77 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.05 US dollars from the previous day and an increase of 0.72 US dollars from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day and 58 yuan from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day and 18.5 yuan from the previous week [1]. Important Information - If the US government shuts down, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations and will not release economic data. After a record - breaking rally, the value of US gold reserves has reached 1 trillion US dollars [1]. - Trump said that Israel agreed to the "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, but a senior Hamas official said they had not received the plan; Qatar said it received an apology from the Israeli prime minister, who promised not to launch a similar attack on Qatar [1]. Trading Strategy - For gold, consider going long on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/g and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/g. For silver, for London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 yuan/kg [1].

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have reached a new historical high, surpassing $3840 per ounce, driven by risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On September 30, spot gold prices peaked at $3840.589 per ounce, marking a significant increase from the previous day's closing price of $3832.935, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.16% [2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw an upward trend, reaching a high of $3869 per ounce, with a closing price of $3867.8, up by 0.33% from the previous day [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The potential risk of a U.S. government shutdown has contributed to the surge in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty [3]. - Increased geopolitical risks, particularly involving Russia and NATO, as well as conflicts in the Middle East, have further supported the rise in gold prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office predicts that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $3900 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and persistent high inflation [4].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX futures peaking at $3863.7 per ounce and London spot prices hitting $3834.120 per ounce as of September 29 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO's threats to Russia and military activities in Gaza, have intensified concerns over Middle Eastern conflicts, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Financing and Investment in Gold Stocks - In September, five gold and jewelry stocks recorded net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at 1.569 billion yuan, followed by Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, Shandong Gold, and Yuguang Gold Lead [4] - Zijin Mining's stock price reached a historical high of 28.86 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of 93.06% [7] Group 3: Company Performance - Zijin Mining reported a 16% year-on-year increase in gold production to 41 tons in the first half of 2025, with corresponding revenue of 26.455 billion yuan, up 62.15% [7] - Among gold and jewelry stocks, Zijin Mining led in net profit for the first half of the year at 23.292 billion yuan, with Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also exceeding 1 billion yuan in net profit [7][10] - Western Gold achieved a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a 69.01% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94%, attributed to rising gold prices and increased sales [8]