对于原油、美元和黄金而言，它们的反应机制和敏感因素各不相同。正因如此，像阿萨社区一直强调的那样，对于普通投资者而言，先理解市场逻辑、掌握 分析方法，比单纯追逐新闻带来的价格波动更为重要。 首先是原油市场。委内瑞拉虽然拥有全球前列的石油储量，但长期制裁和投资不足使得其产量和出口在全球市场中占比有限。然而，由于军事打击和航运受 阻，短期内市场对供应不确定性的担忧被放大，油价自然受到提振。 这种上涨主要反映风险溢价，而非需求端的变化。尤其是重质原油市场，委内瑞拉的供应具有一定不可替代性，因此短期价格波动更为明显。但从中长期来 看，如果局势趋于稳定、国际资本重新进入并修复油田和港口设施，委内瑞拉的产量和出口可能恢复甚至增长，从而增加全球供给，对油价形成压力。 因此，原油市场呈现出典型的"短期利好、长期利空"特征，价格波动更多表现为阶段性调整，而非持续单边上涨。 当地时间1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事行动，并抓获该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，这一消息瞬间成为全球关注的焦点。美国官方同时宣布，将限制受制裁 油轮进出委内瑞拉港口，并推动大型美国石油公司进入该国，对能源基础设施进行重建和投资。 马杜罗被抓的消息，不仅在政治层面引 ...

Core Insights - The metal market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by green consumption policies and supply disruptions, with new energy metals leading the gains and traditional metals following suit [1][3] - Copper prices have reached a historical high of 103,840 yuan/ton, driven by supply concerns from Chilean copper mine strikes and strengthened long-term demand expectations due to domestic green consumption policies [1][3] - Nickel prices surged by 4,950 yuan to 144,750 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of reduced supply from Indonesian nickel mines and strong long-term demand from new energy sectors [2][3] - Tin prices increased by 8,500 yuan to 342,250 yuan/ton, reflecting geopolitical risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and slow supply recovery from Myanmar [2][3] Price Movements - Copper: 1 copper reported at 103,840 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan [1] - Aluminum: A00 aluminum at 23,910 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, supported by low inventory and pre-holiday stocking [1] - Zinc: 0 zinc at 24,350 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan, with tight supply supporting prices despite weak seasonal demand [1] - Lead: 1 lead at 17,575 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, showing a weak supply-demand balance [2] - Nickel: 1 nickel at 144,750 yuan/ton, up 4,950 yuan, driven by supply reduction expectations [2] - Tin: 1 tin at 342,250 yuan/ton, up 8,500 yuan, influenced by geopolitical risks [2] Market Outlook - The metal market is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to multiple factors including Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and green transition demands [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on copper and gold, with recommendations to avoid chasing high prices and to adopt a staggered buying approach during pullbacks [4] - Gold is seen as a defensive asset with value underpinned by geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, while copper is supported by supply disruptions and structural demand gaps [4]

多家欧洲市场机构日前认为，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击并强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇可能加 剧投资者对地缘政治不确定性的担忧，对石油市场供应和风险预期造成影响。 英国盐沼经济咨询公司分析师马谢尔·亚历山德罗维奇说，从贸易摩擦到中东局势，再到近期委内瑞拉 袭击事件，当前市场面临的地缘政治风险较高，正在影响市场心理和投资决策。 荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，石油市场供应将出现更多不确定性。短期影响在很大程度上取决 于委内瑞拉将出现何种权力过渡。如果过渡期漫长且混乱，短期内供应中断风险会上升。若出现平稳过 渡，且委政府更愿意与美国合作，市场可能面临更大下行压力。 路透社援引多名能源分析师的话报道说，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明原油储量，但其原油产量 过去几十年持续下降。受制裁影响，委内瑞拉在2025年12月下旬的原油供应量相对较小，约为日均50万 桶。中长期来看，市场影响取决于委内瑞拉石油产量能得到多大程度的提升。 IG市场经纪公司分析认为，美国袭击委内瑞拉属于典型的地缘政治冲击，短期内使伦敦布伦特原油和 纽约商品交易所轻质原油成为市场关注焦点。但同时，油价的实际走势将更多取决于供应是否可能中 断，以及新的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 3.00%报 4459.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 7.74%报 76.51 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.93%报 1001.6 元/克，沪银收涨 3.17%报 18745 元/千克。。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 1 月 5 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上个交易日维持不 变，当前持仓量为 1065.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日减少 90.54 吨，当前持仓量为 16353.60 吨。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 18.3%，维持利率 | | 有色与贵 金属 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 偏 多 白 银 偏 多 | 不变的概率为 81.7%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 43 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，地缘溢价交易继续，COMEX | 此前交割逻辑再现，流动性风 | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金， | | | | | | ★★ | 长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、黄金情绪高涨，白银大涨，长期来看市场押注 | 白银 | 长期持有 | 降息持续、供需缺口连续 | 5 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易 | | | | ★★ | 也是 | 2026 | 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，铜 | 铜 | 长线持有 | 隔夜再创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | ...

前言： 这个市场从来不缺投资者，因为它本身的利润会不断地吸引一批又一批的有钱人进来。市场的法则就是 胜者为王，败者为寇。它在不断淘汰那些投机的人、那些不把规则当回事、不严格律已、不止损止盈、 不适仓操作、不风险控制、不调整心态的人。这个世界永远只有百分之二十的人起到关键作用，剩余的 百分之八十就是衬托和服务于这百分之二十的人。你的投资生活前半生我没有参与，后半生我不会缺席 这边提供最优惠的福利，最稳定的平台，最优秀的服务指导，陪您走过这投资道路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（北京时间1月6日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4460美元/盎司附近，金价周一攀升至一周高位， 白银、铂金等贵金属也全线走强；受美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动带来的地缘政治风险推动；美原油交 投于58.16美元/桶附近，油价周一上涨近2%，交易员正在评估美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后对全球 原油供应的潜在影响，同时，关注将于本周公布的一系列关键美国经济数据。美元指数周一稍早上涨 0.43%触及 12 月 10 日以来最高，但随后回落，盘尾下跌 0.12%，报 98.32。美元指数在 12 月下跌了 1.2%，为 ...

消息面上，受地缘风险及供给紧张等因素影响，大宗商品价格持续上涨。其中，截至1月5日，现货黄金 价格盘中一度大涨超3%，触及每盎司4467美元的高点。里昂表示，当前委内瑞拉局势提升地缘政治风 险，并支撑金价。瑞银将今年金价目标上调至5000美元。 在市场持续关注的美联储降息方面，华福证券指出，美国劳动力市场疲软，通胀水平温和上涨，为降息 提供良好的土壤。美联储于2026年降息预期维持两次。美联储降息周期中黄金持有机会成本的下降将打 开黄金向上的突破空间。同时，未来随着美国信用的持续收缩与弱化，各国央行黄金储备占比有望继续 增长，2026年预计金价将在2025年4300美元/盎司左右的峰值上继续抬升。 黄金股早盘走强，截至发稿，万国黄金国际(03939)涨8.02%，报8.75港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.92%， 报33.7港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.06%，报37.72港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.36%，报19.55港元。 ...

在市场持续关注的美联储降息方面，华福证券指出，美国劳动力市场疲软，通胀水平温和上涨，为降息 提供良好的土壤。美联储于2026年降息预期维持两次。美联储降息周期中黄金持有机会成本的下降将打 开黄金向上的突破空间。同时，未来随着美国信用的持续收缩与弱化，各国央行黄金储备占比有望继续 增长，2026年预计金价将在2025年4300美元/盎司左右的峰值上继续抬升。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股早盘走强，截至发稿，万国黄金国际(03939)涨8.02%，报8.75港元；招金矿 业(01818)涨4.92%，报33.7港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.06%，报37.72港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.36%， 报19.55港元。 消息面上，受地缘风险及供给紧张等因素影响，大宗商品价格持续上涨。其中，截至1月5日，现货黄金 价格盘中一度大涨超3%，触及每盎司4467美元的高点。里昂表示，当前委内瑞拉局势提升地缘政治风 险，并支撑金价。瑞银将今年金价目标上调至5000美元。 ...

日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 贵金属日评 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉并活捉委内瑞拉总统带回美国审判，此事震惊全球并 引发巨大的地缘政治风险，周一亚盘时段贵金属板块普遍上涨，伦敦黄金重返 4400 美元/盎司上方。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部 积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济 增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需求等因素影响下，2026 年贵金属特别是工业 贵金属还将继续偏强运行，建议投资者继续持偏多思路参与交易但要控制仓位 ...