Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable rebound after a series of price cuts at the end of last year, leading to increased costs for consumers and logistics during the Spring Festival period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends and Expectations - At the end of last year, domestic oil prices saw a rare "three consecutive declines," allowing 92 gasoline to return to the "6 yuan era," providing relief to consumers and the logistics industry [2]. - In January 2026, oil prices quickly rebounded, with two consecutive increases during the Spring Festival, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 0.2 yuan per liter [3]. - As of February 3, 2026, the adjusted prices were: 89 gasoline at 6.44 yuan/liter, 92 gasoline at 6.83 yuan/liter, and 95 gasoline at 7.22 yuan/liter, with expectations of further increases in the coming weeks [3]. Group 2: International Oil Market Drivers - The international oil market has shown strong performance, with Brent crude oil returning above $70 per barrel and WTI crude stabilizing around $64 per barrel, reaching new highs for the year [4]. - The primary driver of the recent oil price increase is geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning a critical maritime passage for global oil transport, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions [5]. - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise further into the $66-$67 range, while technical indicators show short-term upward momentum for WTI crude [5]. Group 3: Regional Oil Price Differences and Market Characteristics - Nationwide, the price of 92 gasoline shows a pattern of higher prices in South and Southwest China, while lower prices are found in the Northwest, with the highest price in Hainan at 8.05 yuan/liter and the lowest in Urumqi at 6.76 yuan/liter [6]. - The price of 95 gasoline follows a similar trend, with significant regional supply and demand differences, ranging from 7.22 to 8.55 yuan/liter across the country [6]. - In various regions, prices vary significantly, with notable figures such as 9.54 yuan/liter in Guangdong and 8.66 yuan/liter in Henan, reflecting local market conditions and transportation costs [7][11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The market anticipates that oil prices will remain high in the short term, with geopolitical risks being the largest uncertainty factor, particularly concerning the potential risks in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - If geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices may quickly retract; conversely, if tensions escalate, prices could reach higher levels [16]. - For consumers, it is advisable to monitor price adjustment information closely and consider refueling before price increases, while logistics companies may explore strategies like price locking and bulk purchasing to manage costs [16].

春节假期，当大家忙着拜年、吃团圆饭的时候，国际黄金市场却上演了一出惊心动魄的"过山车"。 就在2026年2 月19日，国际现货黄金价格从低点暴力拉升，强势站上了每盎司5000美元的历史性关口，单日振幅超过150美元。 而与此同时，因为春节长假，国内的黄金交易所、期货市场全部休市，价格还停留在节前的1108.5元/克左右。 这 意味着，国内外的金价出现了明显的"时间差"和"价格差"。 节后一开盘，国内金价将直接与国际市场接轨，假期 里国际市场的所有剧烈波动，都可能在国内开盘那一刻集中兑现。 2026年2月19日，国际黄金市场的交易员们经历了一个不眠夜。 伦敦现货黄金价格在盘中最低触及4842美元后， 被强大的买盘力量迅速拉起，一路冲高，最高触及5021.25美元，最终收报在5014.62美元附近。 算下来，一天之 内就涨了将近40美元，涨幅接近0.8%。 如果从当天的最低点算起，反弹的幅度超过了160美元。 这种先暴跌再暴 涨的"深V"走势，让市场情绪在极度悲观和极度亢奋之间快速切换。 同一天，纽约商品交易所的黄金期货价格也 同步走强，报在5035.7美元。 白银、铂金、钯金等其他贵金属也出现了大幅波动，整个贵 ...

这波行情的直接引爆点，来自全球两大热点地区同时传来的紧张消息。 中东方面，美国与伊朗的博弈 到了剑拔弩张的边缘。 当地时间2月17日，双方在瑞士日内瓦结束了第二轮间接谈判。 尽管伊朗外长表 示已就"指导原则"达成共识，美国副总统也称会谈在部分议题上进展顺利，但核心分歧丝毫未解。 伊 朗坚持其和平利用核能的权利和导弹自卫权，而美国则要求伊朗必须彻底放弃核武器计划、大幅削减弹 道导弹项目并停止支持地区武装组织。 谈判桌上的僵局，伴随着军事上的极限施压。 多家媒体报道指 出，美军已做好"最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击"的准备，特朗普总统正在就军事行动的利弊进行最 终评估。 以色列媒体更是放出消息，称美国对伊朗军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。 作为回应，伊朗革 命卫队在霍尔木兹海峡启动了军事演习，并威胁若遭攻击将报复美国在该地区的军事基地。 霍尔木兹 海峡是全球约20%原油运输的咽喉要道，任何风吹草动都牵动着全球能源市场和避险情绪的神经。 2026年2月19日，贵金属市场给所有投资者上演了一出"明跌暗涨"的好戏。 表面上看，黄金价格比昨天 收盘时微跌了一点，但如果你仔细对比昨天同一时间的价格，会发现它其实悄悄涨了超过1 ...

（原标题：美股前瞻 | 美伊局势紧张 美国GDP与PCE数据来袭 BlueOwl(OWL.US)限赎引发流动性担 忧） 盘前市场动向 1. 2月20日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货微跌。截至发稿，纳指期货现跌0.01%，标普500指数期 货跌0.02%，道指期货跌0.03%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.37%，英国富时100指数涨0.63%，法国CAC40指数涨0.85%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨0.45%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.26%，报66.23美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.27%，报71.47美元/桶。 市场消息 特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"!中东局势骤然紧张。随着美国总统特朗普就伊朗核问题谈判设定最后期 限，地缘政治风险急剧升温。据报道，特朗普表示，伊朗最多有10至15天时间就其核计划达成协议，否 则将面临后果。此番言论标志着美国对伊朗的施压显著升级。与此同时，美国正在中东地区进行自2003 年伊拉克战争前以来最大规模的军事部署，这被市场解读为为潜在的持续军事行动保留选项。作为传统 避险资产的黄金同样表现抢眼，价格在每盎司5000美元附近持稳。 美国四季度GDP初值公布在即，市场普遍 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices increased, with April futures rising 0.76% to $5,035.50 per ounce, while spot gold rose 0.54% to $5,021.71 per ounce [2] - Despite the increase, gold remains on track for slight weekly losses [2] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver futures for March delivery advanced 1.28% to $78.63 per ounce, and spot silver gained 0.68% to $78.88 [3] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Spot palladium increased 0.17% to $1,696.55, and platinum rose 0.46% to $2,090.50 per ounce [4] Group 4: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index held steady at 97.98, indicating stable performance against a basket of six major currencies [5] Group 5: Newmont Corporation - Newmont Corporation, the largest gold miner, expects a 10% decline in gold production this year due to planned development work at several mines [6]

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market experienced declines on February 20, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down by 1.12% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index down by 1.13% [1] - The decline was influenced by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which led to a comprehensive drop in the three major U.S. stock indices overnight [1] Market Dynamics - The Tokyo stock market opened lower and faced pressure throughout the day, with significant selling activity observed [1] - The market was further impacted by the news that Blue Owl Capital, a U.S. private credit firm, restricted redemptions from its funds, causing additional market turbulence [1] Investor Behavior - Following a substantial increase of over 900 points in the Nikkei index over the previous two trading days, investors opted to lock in profits ahead of an upcoming three-day holiday, leading to increased profit-taking activities [1] - The Nikkei index closed down by 642.13 points at 56,825.70 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 43.61 points to 3,808.48 points [1] Sector Performance - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, most sectors experienced declines, particularly in securities and commodity futures trading, transportation machinery, and airline transportation [1] - Conversely, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petroleum and coal products, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The January 2026 economic data indicates a narrowing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year from -1.9% to -1.4%, primarily influenced by rising international metal prices [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, with the growth rate expanding, indicating stronger input factors driving prices [1] - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices has led to significant increases in domestic prices for the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry, as well as the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, with month-on-month price increases of 5.7% and 5.2% respectively [1] - Specific price increases for smelting include silver up by 38.2%, copper by 8.4%, gold by 4.8%, and aluminum by 2.3% [1] Group 2: External Influences - Geopolitical risks have intensified, pushing up international oil prices, which in turn has led to month-on-month price increases of 0.6% in basic chemical raw material manufacturing and 0.4% in chemical fiber manufacturing [1] - The strong upward trend in international metal prices, particularly for copper, gold, and silver, combined with geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, suggests that short-term input factors may continue to support PPI [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The annual PPI year-on-year central tendency is expected to rise, but maintaining a trend of recovery will require more policy efforts, such as subsidies, to promote sustained improvement in domestic demand [1]

周五（2月20日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续受限于短期区间内徘徊缺乏指引，目前暂交投于4996美元附近。周四（2月19日），黄金市场多空来回拉锯博弈， 现货黄金在盘中一度触及5022.15美元/盎司的历史高位后，最终收于4995.83美元/盎司，微涨0.4%。投资者正站在十字路口，一边是特朗普对伊朗下达的"10 天最后通牒"，另一边是即将出炉的美国PCE通胀数据这颗"经济核弹"。黄金正在地缘政治的硝烟与经济数据的冷光之间寻找自己的方向。 中东上空再次乌云密布。美国总统特朗普周四发出严厉警告，要求伊朗必须就其核计划达成协议，否则将面临"非常糟糕的事情"。更令人震惊的是，特朗普 似乎设定了不超过10到15天的最后期限，之后美国可能采取军事行动。这一表态立即在全球金融市场引起震动。战争的脚步声正在逼近。据悉，特朗普正在 考虑对伊朗发动一次初步的有限军事打击，目标锁定少数几个军事或政府地点。知情人士透露，如果获得授权，首轮攻击可能在几天内就会发生。而更令人 担忧的是，这仅仅是"开胃菜"——如果伊朗仍然拒绝遵守特朗普结束核浓缩活动的指令，美国将以一场针对该政权设施的广泛行动作为回应，其潜在目标直 指推翻德黑兰政权。 与此同 ...

Economic Data and Currency Performance - The U.S. dollar experienced a significant boost after a report indicated that new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected, highlighting labor market stability [1][11] - The dollar is on track for its strongest weekly performance in over four months, with a projected weekly gain of more than 1% [2][11] - The euro declined by 0.02% to $1.1768, expected to lose 0.8% for the week, influenced by uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's tenure [2][11] - The British pound is nearing a one-month low at $1.3457, with a weekly drop of nearly 1.5% [1][11] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index and advance fourth quarter GDP figures, which could influence currency movements [11] - Investors are currently pricing in approximately two Fed rate cuts for the year, although the likelihood of a cut in June has decreased from 62% to 58% [7][11] - The Federal Reserve is debating whether to lower rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, with the PCE report expected to contribute to this discussion [8][11] Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - Concerns regarding a potential U.S.-Iran conflict have provided safe-haven support for the dollar, as President Trump issued a warning to Iran regarding its nuclear program [6][11] - A major conflict could significantly impact oil and currency markets, raising questions about the dollar's status as a safe haven [7][11] Other Currency Movements - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.08% to $0.7055 but is set to lose only 0.2% for the week, supported by hawkish rate expectations domestically [11] - The New Zealand dollar is facing a 1.2% weekly loss due to a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with the kiwi trading 0.12% lower at $0.5967 [11] - The Japanese yen dipped 0.05% to 155.08 per dollar, following data indicating the slowest annual core consumer inflation in two years at 2.0% [9][11]

（原标题：特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"！中东局势骤然紧张 原油黄金齐步走高） 花旗分析师Anthony Yuen等人在一份报告中表示："如果与伊朗的冲突升级为霍尔木兹海峡的运输中 断，油价很可能会进一步上涨。"他们补充称，其基本预测并未假设这一关键航道会出现长期中断。 不断上升的风险溢价也反映在原油期权市场上。今年大部分时间里，由于交易商对冲价格飙升的风险， 看涨期权的交易价格一直远高于看跌期权。周三，相当于1000万桶的布伦特原油6月每桶100美元看涨期 权易手。在美国能源信息署的数据显示原油库存减少900万桶(为9月初以来的最大降幅)之后，看涨势头 进一步增强。成品油库存也全面下降。 作为传统避险资产的黄金同样表现抢眼，价格在每盎司5000美元附近持稳。此前两个交易日，金价已上 涨超过2%。联合国核监督机构负责人警告称，美国的军事部署意味着伊朗通过外交途径解决核问题的 窗口期正在关闭。 市场分析人士指出，特朗普政府此次给出的谈判窗口期极为紧迫，且伴随着空前的军事压力，让人联想 到去年6月美国对伊朗实施军事打击前的场景。当时特朗普同样表示"给外交两周机会"，但行动在两天 后即展开。目前，虽然大规模军事行动是讨 ...