2025-06-04日沪镍主力合约2507开于121250元/吨，收于122590元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.85%，当日成交量为 117416手，持仓量为83546手。 沪镍主力合约2507今天低开高走，日线收中阳线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所放大，持仓量有小幅 减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积在缓慢缩窄，短周期内或许下跌趋势接近尾声，60分钟线在5月26 日的122000附近出现底背离现象，但端午节前的大幅下探击穿底背离的支撑位，关注上方122000-123000短期一线 压力位置，下方关注120000整数关口附近短线支撑位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调525元 /吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的涨幅。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，盘面虽有反弹迹象，但市场观望态度 居多，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于平稳的态势。其 中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2500元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日 沪镍仓单量为22299（261.0）吨，LME镍库存为201624（162） ...

短期看，5月铝合金锭市场呈现典型的季节性疲软特征，行业整体面临需求收缩与库存高企的双重压 力。受终端消费持续走低影响，下游采购意愿明显下降，导致企业订单量环比下降15%~20%，成品库 存周转天数较4月增加3~5天。在市场竞争愈发激烈的背景下，为维持客户关系和加速资金周转，多数 企业采取降价促销策略，导致铝合金锭的价格走势与基本面出现背离——电解铝价格中枢上移200元/ 吨，但ADC12等主流牌号铝合金锭的价格反而下跌200~300元/吨，形成了"跟跌不跟涨"的现象。行业调 研情况显示，当前约30%的铸造铝合金企业已陷入亏损状态，特别是中小型厂商受制于原料采购困难及 订单不足等问题，浙江、广东等主要产区已陆续出现减产情况。 调研团队认为，即将上市的铸造铝合金期货，将为市场带来新的定价机制和风险管理工具，或许能改变 当前铝合金现货市场定价较为混乱的局面。业内人士普遍认为，铸造铝合金期货上市能够提升价格发现 效率，并为产业企业提供有效的套期保值工具。 样本企业运营情况 原料供应紧张。废铝供应呈现"结构性紧张"特征。调研结果显示，浙江、江西地区样本企业主要依赖国 内废铝资源（占比85%以上）进行生产，进口废铝仅作为 ...

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the hedging position limits for various products, including an increase in the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 products, including PTA [1] - Reports indicated that Mongolia's coal resource tax might be raised to 20%, but the Mongolian Tax Authority confirmed that no official decision regarding changes to coal resource taxes or export taxes has been made [1] - In Tangshan, some steel mills plan to reduce the prices of various types of coke by 50 to 75 yuan per ton, effective from June 6, 2025 [1] - National building materials inventory decreased by 2.63% to 5.5047 million tons, while factory inventory fell by 0.92% to 3.2615 million tons, and production dropped by 0.90% to 4.2193 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, down from 13.83 million tons in the same month last year, and lower than May's 14.20 million tons [2] - A foreign media survey predicts that U.S. net soybean export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year will range between 100,000 to 500,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, it will be between 0 to 100,000 tons [2] - A Reuters survey forecasts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 will be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April, with production expected to rise by 3% to 1.74 million tons and exports by 17.9% to 1.30 million tons [2] - A commodity research institution reported that Indonesia's palm oil production for the 2024/2025 fiscal year is expected to be 48.8 million tons, while Malaysia's is projected at 19 million tons, both remaining unchanged from previous estimates [2] Group 3 - A large lead recycling plant in East China has resumed production, but output remains unstable due to ongoing environmental inspections [3] - A zinc smelting plant in South China is undergoing maintenance for 10 to 15 days, which is expected to impact around 2,000 tons of production [3]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the financial derivatives business management system of Zhejiang Xinkai Technology Group Co., Ltd., emphasizing risk prevention and control in derivatives trading, aligning with relevant laws and regulations [1][2]. Summary by Sections General Principles - The system aims to regulate the financial derivatives trading behavior of the company and its subsidiaries, ensuring compliance with laws such as the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. - Financial derivatives include products like forwards, options, swaps, and currency swaps, which can be settled either through physical delivery or cash difference [1]. Operational Principles - The company and its subsidiaries must strictly control the types and scale of derivatives trading, ensuring it does not affect normal business operations [2]. - Derivatives trading should not be solely for profit but should be based on normal business operations, focusing on hedging and risk prevention related to exchange rates and interest rates [2]. Approval Authority - Any foreign exchange derivatives trading must be preceded by a feasibility analysis report submitted to the board of directors for approval [2]. - Overall plans and limits for derivatives trading must comply with regulations and require board approval; if exceeding board authority, shareholder approval is necessary [2]. Management and Operational Processes - The board authorizes the chairman and representatives to manage foreign exchange derivatives trading, including signing legal documents [4]. - The finance director leads the derivatives team, overseeing risk management, market analysis, and strategy formulation [4]. - The operations team is responsible for providing relevant data and ensuring approved funds for derivatives trading are monitored and reconciled monthly [5]. Risk Management - A risk measurement system is established to assess funding risks and price fluctuation risks associated with derivatives trading [6]. - In case of significant market changes that increase risks, the company must report and initiate emergency measures [6]. - A stop-loss mechanism is activated when market price fluctuations approach predetermined limits [6]. Information Disclosure - The company must disclose information regarding derivatives trading in accordance with regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7]. - Any confirmed gains or losses from derivatives trading that exceed 10% of the most recent audited net profit must be disclosed promptly [7]. Other Provisions - The management system will be effective upon approval by the board and will be interpreted by the board [9].

Group 1 - The event "Stable Enterprises and Safe Agriculture - Futures Services for the Cotton Industry" was successfully held in Xinjiang, focusing on risk management strategies in the global cotton market [1] - The conference gathered macroeconomic experts, industry authorities, risk management institutions, and enterprise representatives to discuss practical solutions for the cotton industry [1] - A total of 69 cotton-related enterprises and 87 representatives recognized the event's contributions to risk management [1] Group 2 - Professor He Wenbin from Xinjiang Finance University highlighted three long-term trends affecting the global economy: geopolitical fragmentation, technological transformation, and the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity [3] - China is transitioning from a real estate-driven economy to one focused on technological innovation, with significant growth in trade surplus and high-tech exports [3] - He Wenbin predicts continued policy support for domestic demand through monetary easing and regulatory coordination, while also implementing proactive fiscal policies to counter external challenges [3] Group 3 - Sun Gang, Deputy General Manager of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Cotton and Hemp Co., emphasized the importance of hedging as a common tool for managing price volatility in the cotton market [5] - He proposed flexible use of options, such as "buying put insurance strategies" to lock in profits during price declines and "covered call strategies" to enhance returns [5] - Sun Gang stressed the need for enterprises to follow the "four strong" principles: strong logic, strong systems, strong review, and strong iteration to build a dynamic risk management system [5] Group 4 - Researcher Li Shuaige from Rongda Futures reported that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to grow by 2.93% year-on-year by 2025, with northern and southern Xinjiang increasing by 3.68% and 2.39%, respectively [7] - Favorable climate conditions have improved seedling emergence rates and height indicators, with an estimated total cotton production in Xinjiang for this year ranging from 6.75 million to 6.95 million tons [7] - This data provides essential reference for cotton-related enterprises to anticipate the new year's supply-demand dynamics and supports the application of futures tools [7] Group 5 - Wang Sijia, Assistant General Manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry's U.S. branch, analyzed the cotton market fundamentals, indicating a projected cotton production of 6.97 million tons in China for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of 1.02 million tons year-on-year [9] - However, consumption is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, leading to a rise in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 101.4%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The meeting served as a platform for cotton enterprises to exchange insights on macroeconomic assessments, supply-demand data, and risk management tools, addressing challenges posed by global trade restructuring and price volatility [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Longtou (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to engage in financial derivatives trading in 2025 to hedge against foreign exchange risks, with a maximum single transaction amount of $5 million and an annual cumulative contract amount not exceeding $150 million [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Overview - The purpose of the trading is to mitigate operational risks arising from foreign exchange fluctuations, focusing on the company's actual business needs without engaging in speculative or arbitrage trading [2]. - The planned transaction amount will not exceed the company's foreign currency payment and receipt amounts, with a maximum single transaction of $5 million and an annual cumulative contract amount of $150 million [2]. - The funding for these transactions will come from the company's own funds, without involving raised capital [2]. - The types of financial derivatives to be used include forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, and foreign exchange options [2]. 2. Transaction Duration and Authorization - The validity of the trading authorization will last for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting, allowing for the recycling of funds within the approved limits [3]. - The board of directors will be authorized to make investment decisions and sign relevant contracts within the approved limits, pending shareholder approval [3]. 3. Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company acknowledges potential risks associated with financial derivatives trading, including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, and internal control risk [4]. - To mitigate these risks, the company will adhere to a strict risk management principle, ensuring that trading activities do not affect normal operations and are limited to low-risk financial products [4]. - The company will implement a regular reporting mechanism for its business activities and establish clear internal risk management procedures [4]. 4. Impact on the Company - The proposed financial derivatives trading is expected to enhance the company's financial stability by hedging against foreign exchange fluctuations, aligning with the long-term interests of the company and its shareholders [4]. - The accounting treatment for these transactions will comply with relevant accounting standards, ensuring proper recognition and measurement of financial instruments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has announced the addition of four designated delivery warehouses for rapeseed meal, aiming to optimize the delivery structure and enhance market service efficiency in a complex market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The adjustment of delivery warehouses provides more convenience for companies in the rapeseed meal sector to utilize futures tools [2]. - The expansion of delivery warehouses is expected to play a crucial role in repairing the market pricing mechanism, especially under the impact of U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The increase in delivery resources enhances the supply of deliverable rapeseed meal, covering major consumption areas in East and South China, thus providing a stable price anchor for the industry [2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Efficiency - The improved delivery warehouse system reconstructs the risk management model of the industry chain, enhancing hedging efficiency and allowing importers to convert volatile pricing risks into more stable basis risks [2]. - The addition of delivery warehouses significantly facilitates the delivery process in surrounding regions, leading to a notable increase in registered warehouse receipts for rapeseed meal [3]. - The expansion of delivery points helps companies effectively avoid operational risks arising from macroeconomic changes and reduces delivery costs, thereby improving overall delivery efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price continues to decline, prompting companies to engage in hedging activities to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On May 29, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures fell below the critical threshold of 60,000 yuan/ton, closing at 58,860 yuan/ton [2]. - The ongoing decline in lithium carbonate prices has led to increased hedging demand among industry players [2]. - Salt Lake Co. announced its intention to conduct futures hedging to reduce the impact of price fluctuations on its operations, which has drawn significant attention in the industry [2][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The production costs of lithium carbonate vary significantly among companies due to differences in processing methods, raw material sources, and operational costs [3]. - The mainstream production cost of lithium carbonate is between 75,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton, with some projects exceeding 90,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Salt Lake Co. benefits from a lower production cost of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan/ton, which is significantly advantageous compared to other methods [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite the overall decline in lithium carbonate prices, Salt Lake Co. reported a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan in 2024, leading the lithium mining sector [4]. - The gross profit margin for Salt Lake Co.'s lithium carbonate products reached 50.68% in 2024, well above the industry average [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current supply-demand mismatch is expected to persist, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory of lithium carbonate [5]. - Analysts suggest that even if lithium carbonate prices fall below production costs, companies may maintain production to fulfill long-term contracts [6]. - A stabilization in lithium carbonate prices may only occur if there are signs of production cuts or controlled shipment rates from companies [6].

Company Overview - Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co., Ltd. maintains a long-term credit rating of AA+ and the "23 Jingliang 01" bond rating of AAA, with a stable outlook [1][3] - The company is a large state-owned food processing enterprise in Hainan, with competitive advantages in brand recognition and R&D capabilities [3][4] - As of the end of 2024, the company's total assets reached 67.01 billion yuan, with total equity of 35.11 billion yuan [11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 114.35 billion yuan, a slight decline from the previous year, with a total profit of -0.08 billion yuan [11][19] - The company's operating income for Q1 2025 was 21.35 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.29% [11][19] - The company experienced a decline in core business revenue and overall profitability due to market oversupply and increased competition [3][4][18] Business Segments - The main revenue sources for the company include oilseed processing, oilseed trading, and food processing, which together account for over 99% of total revenue [18] - The oil processing segment saw a decrease in sales volume and price due to market conditions, while the food processing segment faced challenges from market competition [18][19] - The company is investing in major projects, such as the Hainan Yangpu oil processing project, expected to enhance processing capacity and profitability upon completion in 2026 [4][6] Industry Context - The Chinese grain industry is characterized by a long-term supply-demand balance, with grain production reaching a historical high of 14.13 trillion jin in 2024 [11][12] - The government is increasingly focusing on grain security, implementing policies to stabilize prices and support production [12][13] - The food processing industry is expected to benefit from a combination of policy incentives, consumer demand recovery, and technological advancements, leading to market expansion and restructuring [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The launch of PVC monthly average price futures contracts is a significant innovation in China's futures market. These contracts can effectively smooth price fluctuations, attract more financial trading clients without a spot background, and meet the hedging needs of the PVC industry under the monthly average price pricing model [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Launch Background - PVC price fluctuations are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical conflicts. The current pricing models (fixed - price and price - setting) have high price - fluctuation risks, while the monthly average price pricing can smooth price fluctuations and may become the future pricing trend [11]. - China is a major PVC producer, with increasing PVC production capacity and export volume. To meet the risk - management needs of enterprises, on April 24, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the monthly average price futures contracts of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene and related rules [12]. - The PVC futures market has been operating stably since its listing in 2009, with high industry recognition and participation, laying a good foundation for the launch of monthly average price futures contracts [11]. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Content Interpretation - The contract code of the PVC monthly average price futures contract is "V contract month F". It differs from existing futures contracts in terms of the last trading day, delivery date, delivery method, settlement price calculation, and position limits, while being consistent with the corresponding physical - delivery PVC futures contracts in other aspects [3][21]. - The settlement price of the monthly average price futures contract is calculated differently at different stages. Before the month before the contract month, it is the same as the corresponding physical - delivery contract. In the month before the contract month, it is a weighted arithmetic average, and on the last trading day, it is the arithmetic average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical - delivery contract in that month [23][25]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange sets separate position limits for monthly average price futures and physical - delivery futures. The total position limit of monthly average price futures and physical - delivery futures does not exceed the existing variety's position limit, with the monthly average price futures' position limit being 1/5 and the physical - delivery futures' being 4/5 of the existing variety's limit [29]. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Launch's Practical Significance - The monthly average price futures contract can effectively smooth price fluctuations. Its settlement price is based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of all trading days in the month before the contract month, helping to alleviate business risks caused by large price fluctuations [4][30][31]. - The cash - delivery method may attract more financial trading clients without a spot background. It avoids the complexity and cost of physical delivery, improves capital - use flexibility, and reduces operational complexity [31]. - It conforms to the trend of the monthly average price pricing trade model and enriches PVC hedging tools. The monthly average price pricing model may become a new trend, and the monthly average price futures contract can meet the industry's hedging needs more accurately [32].