据CNBC周一报道，美联储主席鲍威尔计划周三出席最高法院口头辩论，案件核心为"总统是否有权罢 免美联储理事莉莎.库克"。此次出席实属罕见，因该案被美联储内部视为关乎央行独立性的根本性问 题。 鲍威尔正因美联储总部装修项目及国会证词受华盛顿特区检察官办公室刑事调查(其1月11日声明称调查 系借口，真实原因是去年未应特朗普要求快速降息)。2018年被特朗普任命的他，已从去年对特朗普攻 击的温和回应转向公开对抗。 摘要今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1045.49元/克，较前一交易日上涨0.40元，涨幅 0.04%，日内呈现震荡微涨走势。当日开盘价报1045.17元/克，盘中最高触及1046.51元/克，最低下探至 1042.52元/克。 今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1045.49元/克，较前一交易日上涨0.40元，涨幅 0.04%，日内呈现震荡微涨走势。当日开盘价报1045.17元/克，盘中最高触及1046.51元/克，最低下探至 1042.52元/克。 【要闻速递】 美国司法部向最高法院提交文件称，下级法院禁令是"司法不当干预总统免职权"。若特朗普成功罢免库 克，可任命新 ...

贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.35 %，报 1053.46 元/克，沪银涨 5.88 %，报 23565.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4676.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 94.28 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 99.03 ； 在联储独立性方面，鲍威尔宣布将在周三出席美国最高法院关于理事库克的口头辩论，这是鲍 威尔对其最为显著的支持，意在维护央行独立性。 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主 席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞 特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普关系极度 亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错， 可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普的表态令市场迅速调高了沃什接任联储主席的概率。沃什被认 为在维护美联储独立性与执行总统意志 ...

智通财经获悉，据知情人士透露，美联储主席鲍威尔计划出席美国最高法院周三就美国总统特朗普试图 解职美联储理事丽莎·库克一案举行的听证会。在鲍威尔上周表示美国司法部已向美联储发出大陪审团 传票之后，他出席此次听证的这一动向更具分量。在此之前，鲍威尔似乎不愿发表任何可能激怒特朗普 的公开言论。在去年12月10日的新闻发布会上被问及该案件时，他选择不予回应，称"我们不是法律评 论员，此事正由法庭审理"。 美联储独立性面临严峻考验 除了试图罢免库克，特朗普政府还对鲍威尔本人发起了刑事调查。上周，据知情官员称，美国哥伦比亚 特区联邦检察官办公室已对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工 程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。有知情官员透露，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的 分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。 随后，鲍威尔证实，美国司法部1月9日向美联储发出传票，威胁将就鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会作证一 事提起刑事指控，该证词部分涉及一项历时多年的历史性美联储办公楼翻新工程。 鲍威尔表示，此次新威胁既非针对去年六月的证词，也非针对美联储大楼翻修 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is critical for the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to set interest rates free from political interference [1][7][9]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing adds weight to the proceedings, especially after the Justice Department issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve [1][4]. - The case challenges the "for cause" removal protection outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which states that governors can only be removed for specific reasons [7][8]. - If the court rules in favor of the White House's interpretation of removal powers, it could open the door for the dismissal of Powell and undermine the data-driven monetary policy framework [8][9]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Investigations - The Trump administration has initiated a criminal investigation into Powell, focusing on the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters and potential misleading statements to Congress [4][10]. - This unprecedented legal action raises concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, suggesting that monetary policy may become subject to political demands rather than economic indicators [5][10]. - Analysts suggest that if the investigation continues and Senate Republicans block new nominations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may opt to retain Powell in a role to counteract aggressive rate cuts favored by Trump [6][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - UBS warns that a ruling allowing the White House to bypass the Federal Reserve Act could lead to a structural re-evaluation of pricing in the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and equities, with significant market volatility expected in 2026 [8]. - The Supreme Court's decision will determine whether the "firewall" protecting the Federal Reserve's unique status remains intact, which is crucial for maintaining its independence from executive power [8][9].

库克否认指控，且至今未被起诉。她随即提起诉讼以保住职位。最高法院在去年十月下达临时命令，允 许她留任直至案件审结。 华尔街见闻提及，上周鲍威尔对外披露，特朗普政府已向美联储发出传票，甚至威胁对他本人提出刑事 指控。 据多家媒体报道，1月21日周三，鲍威尔将出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩 论。 华尔街见闻提及，瑞银在16日的报告中直言，这场审判关乎美联储独立性的生死存亡。如果法院裁决允 许白宫"因故"绕过《联邦储备法》罢免理事Lisa Cook，那么鲍威尔被解职的法律大门将被彻底踢开。 此前司法部向美联储及鲍威尔发出了大陪审团传票，调查其在美联储办公楼装修项目管理及国会证词中 是否涉嫌误导。 鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月15日结束，但其理事任期将持续至2028年1月31日。 特朗普与美联储公开的"白刃战" 一切源于去年八月。 特朗普公开宣称，要解雇由拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克，理由是她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 美联储主席鲍威尔将现身丽莎库克（Lisa Cook）案的口头辩论，这是一次罕见的公开站队。 鲍威尔坐在那里，意味着他说不。 瑞银分析认为，如果政府坚持对鲍威尔刑事起诉，且 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔将现身最高法院，旁听丽莎库克（Lisa Cook）案的口头辩论，这是一次罕见的公开 站队。 1月21日，美国最高法院将举行美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩论。据美联社援引消息人士透露，届 时鲍威尔将现身最高法院旁听。 华尔街见闻提及，瑞银在16日的报告中直言，这场审判关乎美联储独立性的生死存亡。如果法院裁决允 许白宫"因故"绕过《联邦储备法》罢免理事Lisa Cook，那么鲍威尔被解职的法律大门将被彻底踢开。 独立性的赌注 此前司法部向美联储及鲍威尔发出了大陪审团传票，调查其在美联储办公楼装修项目管理及国会证词中 是否涉嫌误导。 鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月15日结束，但其理事任期将持续至2028年1月31日。 特朗普与美联储公开的"白刃战" 一切源于去年八月。 特朗普公开宣称，要解雇由拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克，理由是她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 库克否认指控，且至今未被起诉。她随即提起诉讼以保住职位。最高法院在去年十月下达临时命令，允 许她留任直至案件审结。 华尔街见闻提及，上周鲍威尔对外披露，特朗普政府已向美联储发出传票，甚至威胁对他本人提出刑事 指控。 瑞银分析认为，如果政府 ...

Group 1: Eurozone Inflation Trends - The Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 2.1% the previous month, indicating a gradual easing of price pressures [2] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, slightly decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, suggesting enhanced stability in the price structure [2] - The services sector was the primary driver of inflation, contributing 1.54 percentage points to overall CPI growth, significantly more than other categories [2] Group 2: Global Economic Vulnerabilities - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned that the global economy is entering a more unstable period due to a shift from traditional unipolar or bipolar structures to a more complex multipolar landscape [4] - Structural pressures such as slowing labor productivity, aging population demographics, rising geopolitical security spending, and climate change impacts are exacerbating economic vulnerabilities [4] - Bailey emphasized the need for international cooperation to maintain economic stability and urged countries to avoid economic decoupling and rising protectionism [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, warning that political interference could have disastrous effects on the U.S. macroeconomy [6] - He noted that any deviation from technical judgment in monetary policy could reignite inflation, especially as inflation is currently controlled but not fully dissipated [6] - Historical examples of countries that undermined central bank independence, such as Zimbabwe, Russia, and Turkey, serve as warnings against such practices [6] Group 4: European Central Bank Policy Stance - European Central Bank (ECB) officials have signaled stability in policy, with Chief Economist Philip Lane stating that the Eurozone economy is currently balanced and there is no urgent need to adjust existing interest rate policies [8] - Lane believes the current policy rate range aligns well with inflation near target and a robust labor market, justifying the maintenance of the status quo to observe further economic developments [8] - He indicated that unless there are significant external disruptions, the current policy stance could be sustained for an extended period [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold exceeding $4690 per ounce and silver hitting $94.12 per ounce, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 19, 2023, London gold prices reached $4690.88 per ounce, while silver prices peaked at $94.12 per ounce, both setting new records [3]. - Year-to-date, silver has increased over 30%, and gold has risen more than 8% [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - In the past year, 54 gold and gold stock-themed funds have shown returns exceeding 50%, with five funds doubling their returns, the leading one achieving 103.98% [4]. - The only silver-themed fund in the domestic market, Guotai Ruiyin Silver Futures (LOF), reported returns of 179.13% and 178.03% for its A and C shares, respectively [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, suggesting that if the underlying logic for gold's rise remains unchanged, particularly regarding the weakening of the dollar's credit system, prices could reach $5000 [1][6]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency may lead to increased investment in gold and silver [3][6]. - Short-term price increases may slow due to high market congestion and reduced policy uncertainty, but long-term trends indicate continued support for gold prices from central bank purchases and rising global debt [6].

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, linked to overspending on the Fed's headquarters renovation, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the stability of the global financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - The investigation has led to increased market uncertainty, with a shift in capital towards safer assets, as evidenced by a drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices, which recently surpassed $4600 [1][8]. - The VIX fear index's fluctuations indicate that market expectations are becoming unstable, potentially leading to chaotic financial transactions [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The investigation reflects deeper issues regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for presidential interference in monetary policy, which could undermine confidence in the dollar [2][3]. - If inflation in the U.S. spirals out of control, investors may reassess asset pricing based on Federal Reserve policies, further destabilizing the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Flows and China's Financial Market - The investigation has prompted a re-evaluation of capital flows, with international funds increasingly directed towards China, driven by the country's stable economic policies and growth potential [6][7]. - China's financial system is evolving, with a focus on creating a robust financial infrastructure that enhances its attractiveness to global investors [7]. Group 4: Asset Price Volatility - The current volatility in asset prices, particularly in the stock and gold markets, is closely tied to the dollar's international reserve status, with potential implications for future market stability [8][9]. - Ordinary investors are advised to maintain sustainable cash flow and wait for appropriate entry points in the market, rather than chasing high prices [9].