当地时间 9月4日，美国总统特朗普的律师团队向法院提交新文件，为特朗普罢免美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）提供新的法律论据。文件强调，库克声称因政策分歧而遭解职的说法缺乏事实支持，法院也不 应干预总统对解职理由的判断。就在数小时前，多家媒体披露，司法部已对库克展开刑事调查，指向其 房贷申请中的潜在虚假陈述。 该案正处于白热化阶段，既涉及美国总统权力边界，也牵动美联储的政策独立性。 在法律文件提交的数小时前，美国司法部已对库克展开刑事调查。调查焦点在于她是否在住房贷款申请 中虚报居住信息，以获得更优惠的抵押贷款条件。最初的指控来自联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特 （Bill Pulte）。 同一天，特朗普提名的美联储理事候选人斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在参议院提名听证会上亮相。 政策分歧不是解雇理由 在周四向法官提交的补充备忘录中，特朗普的法律团队敦促联邦法官驳回库克申请紧急临时限制令的请 求，称该程序性挑战背后的法律依据"误导且徒劳"。 文件写道，库克方面提出的唯一"证据"是特朗普批评了美联储的政策，"但仅仅存在政策分歧并不意味 着总统因为该政策分歧而罢免了库克"。 "总统关于美联储政策的任 ...

在听证会上，共和党和民主党参议员都明确表示，美联储的利率决策不应受政治因素影响。米兰在整个 听证会期间多次表示认同该观点。但是，民主党人质疑，如果米兰被确认出任美联储理事，他能否与特 朗普保持距离。 "严格来说，你是美国总统的雇员，但却是美联储理事会的独立成员。这太荒谬了。"罗德岛州民主党参 议员里德（Jack Reed）说。 米兰表示，他将维护美联储的独立性，并根据分析结果以及对经济长期发展最有利的原则做出决策。 "我始终乐于听取来自各方的意见，以挑战我自己的观点并对其进行审视。"米兰说。 如果只是出任临时美联储理事，米兰计划继续在白宫"停薪留职"。 当地时间周四（9月4日），美国国会参议院银行委员会对白宫经济顾问米兰（Stephen Miran）出任美联 储理事提名一事举行听证会。 在听证会上，米兰在参议员的追问下反复表示将维护美联储的独立性，并表示政府中没有人要求他承诺 作为理事投票支持降息。 "仍将在白宫无薪兼职" 新泽西州民主党参议员金(Andy Kim)表示，这种安排存在问题，因为米兰可以继续以符合总统特朗普政 治利益的方式行事，因为他在明年仍会重返白宫经济委员会主席的职位。 "如果你只是在两面下 ...

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 981.97 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On September 4, spot gold prices experienced a mild decline, reaching a low of $3,511.03 per ounce before recovering slightly to close at $3,545.57 per ounce, marking a drop of $13.46 or 0.38% [5] - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the second consecutive day of reduction, coinciding with profit-taking behavior among investors [5] Group 2 - The ADP employment report indicated an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000, and a notable slowdown from the revised increase of 104,000 in July, suggesting a cooling labor market [5][6] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level since June, further supporting the narrative of a softening labor market [6] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to bolster gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting that if the Fed's credibility is compromised, gold prices could soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates strong bullish momentum for gold prices, despite technical indicators being in an extreme overbought state [6] - Resistance levels for gold prices are identified at $3,560, followed by the $3,580 region, with a target of $3,600 [7] - Support levels are found near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent rebound around $3,300 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the $3,500 mark if selling pressure continues [7]

Core Viewpoint - The confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board highlighted concerns about the independence of the Fed and whether Miran would act as a puppet of President Trump [3][6][10]. Group 1: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Miran emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, stating it is "crucial" for the U.S. economy and denied any pressure to commit to supporting interest rate cuts [6][8]. - During the hearing, Miran faced skepticism from Senate Banking Committee members regarding his ability to maintain the Fed's independence, with some questioning his past proposals that could undermine it [4][10]. - Miran criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence, asserting that the Fed should resist actions beyond its core responsibilities [9][11]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Nomination Process - The nomination process appears to be influenced by party politics, with Republican senators generally supporting Miran while Democrats express concerns about his potential impact on the Fed's independence [5][10]. - Miran's arrangement to take an unpaid leave from his role as a White House economic advisor during his tenure as a Fed governor raised eyebrows among senators, who viewed it as a conflict of interest [13][19]. - The White House is actively lobbying Republican senators to expedite Miran's confirmation before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [36][37]. Group 3: Economic Perspectives and Policy Views - Miran argued that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, suggesting that any price fluctuations are temporary [29][30]. - He expressed skepticism about the bond market's resistance to interest rate cuts, predicting that it would not react negatively to a potential rate decrease [32][37]. - Miran's views on economic policy, including the need for a comprehensive approach beyond just monetary policy, indicate a divergence from mainstream Fed perspectives [30][37].

Core Viewpoint - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack emphasizes the need to combat inflation rather than consider interest rate cuts, as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and is on the rise [1][4]. Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Hammack believes there is no reason to lower interest rates this month due to persistent high inflation, which has been above the target for four years and is causing real pressure on low-income families [1][2]. - She notes that many business leaders in the Cincinnati area are experiencing significant price pressures from suppliers, which may lead to price increases in the short term [2]. Group 2: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - Despite recent downward revisions in employment data, Hammack maintains that the labor market is healthy, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, described as a "historical low" [2]. - Hammack views the current monetary policy as "very modestly restrictive" and estimates that interest rates are close to neutral levels, indicating a short distance to reach neutrality [3]. Group 3: Caution Against Policy Shifts - Hammack expresses caution regarding a rapid shift to accommodative policies, warning that such a transition could "reignite inflationary pressures" [4]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Hammack stresses the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence to achieve low inflation outcomes in the medium to long term [5]. - She defends her colleague Lisa Cook against attempts to undermine the Fed's independence, asserting Cook's integrity and expertise as an economist [5].

20250905申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 美国司法部已对美联储理事库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票。随着美国总统特朗普试图对美联 储施加影响并推动降息，投资者对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧。摩根大通团队表示，投资者 正在为潜在的通胀上升做准备。高盛分析师认为，对美联储信誉的"日益担忧"正在引发"重 大尾部风险"。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美日贸易协定。据悉，该行政令将明确关 税调整措施，确保此前已征收较高关税的日本进口产品不会被双重征税，而此前税率低于15%的 商品将调整至新税率。此外，白宫表示，日本正致力于加快落实将美国大米采购量增加75%的计 划。 美国7月贸易逆差环比飙升32.5%至783亿美元，高于市场预期的757亿美元，创四个月新高。7月 进口总额激增5.9%至3588亿美元，出口总额小幅增长0.3%至2805亿美元。 黄金收敛突破后，获利回吐价格回落。市场聚焦周五非农就业数据。美国职位空缺数量减少 17.6万个，降至718.1万个，低于预期的737.8万。上周特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联 储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘探局提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿 ...

SHMET 网讯：在备受关注的美联储九月议息会议前夕，联邦储备委员会内部对降息时机出现明显分歧，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯支持渐进式降息，而克 利夫兰联储主席Hammack反对9月降息。 周四，美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示，如果经济发展符合预期，随着时间的推移，降低利率将是"合适的"。他强调美联储必须在支持就业市场和控制通 胀之间保持"微妙平衡"，当前货币政策保持适度紧缩状态。 威廉姆斯支持渐进降息，长期通胀可控 作为手握FOMC永久投票权的关键人物，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话尤为重要。 威廉姆斯在纽约经济俱乐部活动中表示，货币政策目前处于"适度限制性"水平，适合当前经济形势。 他认为，随着时间的推移，将利率移向更为中性的立场是合适的。但他并未明确降息的时机或节奏，威廉姆斯的言论被市场解读为对未来降息持开放态 度的关键信号。 威廉姆斯表示，美联储现在必须平衡通胀和就业市场风险。目前美国劳动力市场正在经历"逐渐降温"，这与经济放缓的趋势一致。他预计明年失业率将 升至约4.5%。 威廉姆斯承认，有明确迹象表明关税正在影响物价和购买模式，并预计关税今年可能将通胀推高1.0至1.5个百分点。 但他同时指出，目前尚未看到关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board highlighted concerns about the independence of the Fed and Miran's potential alignment with President Trump's economic policies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, stating it is "crucial" for the U.S. economy [4][6]. - During the hearing, Miran denied being a "puppet" of Trump and asserted that he would make decisions based on economic data and personal analysis if confirmed [4][5]. - Concerns were raised by Democratic senators about Miran's past proposals that could undermine the Fed's independence, including giving the president more power to dismiss Fed officials [6][12]. Group 2: Political Neutrality and Commitments - Republican senators generally supported Miran, seeking commitments from him to maintain political neutrality [3][8]. - Miran stated that no one asked him to commit to supporting interest rate cuts as a condition of his nomination [3][4]. - He faced skepticism from Democrats, particularly regarding his ability to remain independent while serving as a White House economic advisor [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Policy and Data Integrity - Miran criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and expressed a desire to resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [5][7]. - He raised concerns about the quality of employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time [15][17]. - Miran's views on tariffs indicated that he does not believe they have significantly impacted inflation, although he acknowledged potential short-term price fluctuations [18][20]. Group 4: Nomination Process and Market Expectations - The White House is actively lobbying Republican senators to expedite Miran's confirmation before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [22][23]. - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with Miran's potential vote being significant in the decision-making process [23].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, coinciding with President Trump's legal team providing new arguments for her dismissal [1][2] - Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, appeared at a Senate confirmation hearing, emphasizing his commitment to maintaining monetary policy independence [4] Group 1: Legal and Investigative Developments - Trump's legal team argues that Cook's claims of being dismissed due to policy disagreements lack factual support, asserting that such disagreements do not justify her removal [2] - The DOJ's investigation focuses on potential false statements made by Cook in her mortgage application, with subpoenas issued to banks and lenders for her loan records [3] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts express ongoing market concerns regarding the stability of the Federal Reserve's governance structure, with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields reflecting investor anxiety [6] - The outcome of Cook's case could fundamentally impact the legal protections of Federal Reserve independence, with potential long-term risks if the court affirms presidential dismissal powers [6]