Group 1 - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local economic development, which is expected to inject new momentum into the economy and help achieve this year's socio-economic development goals [1] - The total scale of government bonds this year has reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [1] - The issuance of 8 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds will support 1,459 "hard investment" projects across various sectors, including new urbanization and social welfare [1] Group 2 - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to continue next year, with a focus on maintaining necessary spending intensity through various fiscal tools, including government bonds [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, emphasizing the need for effective management of government debt [2] - Optimizing the structure of government debt is crucial for enhancing fiscal sustainability, requiring a comprehensive assessment of debt repayment capacity and risk [2] Group 3 - Strengthening the management of bond issuance and usage is essential to improve the effectiveness of government bonds, with a focus on preventing inefficient investments [3] - There is a need to enhance the repayment mechanism for special bonds to ensure timely repayment and mitigate repayment risks [3] - Ongoing efforts to address hidden debts and prevent systemic risks are critical, with a call for improved monitoring and regulation of local government debt [3] Group 4 - A scientific management mechanism for government bonds will be established to better support national strategies and improve public welfare, contributing to stable economic growth [4]

在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文章，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，提 升金融服务实体经济的质效，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀12月13日在中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025- 2026中国经济年会"上表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，我国先后出台实施了一系列 政策措施，明年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策。 在财政政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量。要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构， 强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with a focus on flexible and efficient use of policy tools to maintain liquidity and support economic growth [4][5] - The central bank is expected to utilize various channels such as reverse repos, MLF, and adjustments in reserve requirements to inject liquidity into the market, with a potential window for reserve requirement cuts anticipated at the end of 2025 to early 2026 [4] - Interest rate adjustments may occur 1-2 times in 2026, with a cumulative reduction of 10-20 basis points expected, particularly in the first quarter [5] Group 2 - Credit and social financing growth is projected to stabilize with a slight decrease in 2026, with total credit expected to expand by approximately 16.5 trillion yuan, resulting in a year-end growth rate of around 6.1% [6] - Corporate loans are anticipated to play a stabilizing role, while retail loan demand may recover more slowly due to ongoing economic conditions [7] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of addressing risks in key areas, particularly in the real estate market and local government debt, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive policy approach to stabilize these sectors [8] - The meeting underscored the need to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urging local authorities to manage their debts responsibly [8] Group 4 - The economic policies discussed are expected to support bank operations in terms of volume, pricing, and risk management, with a projected slight increase in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in 2026 [9]

在财政政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量。要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构， 强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民 生、扩内需、增后劲。要主动靠前发力，提高资金使用效率，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文章，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，提 升金融服务实体经济的质效，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 对于中央经济工作会议部署的"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，韩文秀表示，下一步，要深入实施 提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，要以新需求引领新供 给，以新供给创造新需求。适应消费结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The central economic work conference shows increased confidence in the economy and a shift towards high - quality development. Fiscal and monetary policies will continue the 2024 tone. The 2026 deficit rate may remain at 4%, and government bond supply may only slightly increase. The central bank is cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, and the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts may require a change in the policy's perception of the fundamentals. If credit expansion is lower than expected, there may be an adjustment in policy orientation in Q1. The current bond market reaction is less active than in 2023, and the performance of the A - share market is also worthy of further observation. The year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [4][5][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 4.7 billion yuan this week, with limited impact. Due to low initial - month capital demand and reduced government bond payment pressure, funds remained loose. The overnight anonymous lower limit dropped to 1.25%, and DR001 fell below 1.30% after Tuesday and continued to decline, reaching 1.27% on Friday, a new low since August 2023. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on the 15th, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [2][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the daily average volume increasing by 150 billion yuan to 8.08 trillion yuan compared to last week, reaching a new high since July. Banks' net lending increased compared to last week, with joint - stock banks having the largest increase; non - bank institutions' rigid borrowing scale continued to rise, with funds having the largest increase. The capital gap index fluctuated and declined, reaching - 716.3 billion yuan on Friday, lower than - 470.8 billion yuan last Friday [3][23] 3.2 1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The scale of next week's 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity will slightly increase from 663.8 billion yuan to 668.5 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 14.8 billion yuan this week to - 3.9 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the second half of the week, but the overall scale is relatively limited. On the 15th, the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan. The online issuance of Beijie Stock Exchange's new stock Jiangtian Technology on the 16th may disrupt the exchange's capital prices from Tuesday to Wednesday. The DR001 is expected to remain in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% and may slightly decline, and there may be some fluctuations in the second half of the month, but the year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [10][68] - The scale of next week's national debt payment is about 304 billion yuan, and the local debt issuance scale of 6 regions is 40 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 56.3 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop to - 3.9 billion yuan. It is estimated that the national debt issuance scale in December will be about 1.8 trillion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 320 billion yuan; the local debt issuance scale will be about 350 billion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 230 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in December is expected to be about 2.15 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be about 54 billion yuan [6][58] 3.3 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.1BP to 1.65% compared to December 5th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.66% compared to last week [69] - This week, the increase in the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was less than the maturity scale, and they turned to a net repayment of 119.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, rural commercial banks, city commercial banks, and joint - stock banks were - 16.2 billion yuan, - 18.3 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and - 68.5 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 6 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 43%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 22% to 15%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 1.0648 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan compared to this week [11][74] - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of rural commercial banks decreased, and all banks were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated upward, mainly due to the significant increase in the willingness of money market funds to increase holdings. The index rose to 33.7% on Friday, an increase of 5.2 percentage points compared to last week. The supply - demand index of 1 - year varieties decreased, while those of other maturities increased [11][86] 3.4 3. Bill Market - Bill rates continued to rise after Wednesday. As of December 12th, the rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national bills rose 3BP and 9BP respectively compared to December 5th, reaching 0.45% and 0.90% [94] 3.5 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market fluctuated strongly this week, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings increased, especially for inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term national bonds, and short - term policy financial bonds. Trading institutions tended to increase bond holdings, while the willingness of allocation institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly [12][96]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to November, a total of 42,770 billion yuan of new local government special bonds were issued, achieving a progress rate of 97%, effectively supporting the acceleration of construction projects across various regions [1] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds was completed in October, one month ahead of last year, providing timely support for the accelerated development of major infrastructure and livelihood projects [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with direct benefits to individuals through subsidies for childcare, elderly services, and personal consumption loan interest [3] - In the first ten months, expenditures in science and technology, social security and employment, and energy conservation and environmental protection all increased by over 5% year-on-year, ensuring strong support for key areas [3] Group 3 - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates in November decreasing by approximately 30 basis points and 3 basis points year-on-year, respectively, while the overall financing costs remain low [5] - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented rapidly, with 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments fully deployed, focusing on supporting over 2,300 projects in the digital economy and artificial intelligence [5] Group 4 - This year, policies in fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, technology, and environmental sectors have formed a synergistic effect, enhancing macroeconomic regulation and continuously activating the internal driving force of the economy [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered this week, while the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday. The yield curve flattened. - The tone of monetary policy remains unchanged after the Central Economic Work Conference. It will still support the real economy and consumption and boost inflation in the future, possibly using both structural and aggregate tools. Although there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, their impact on the bond market may be limited. - In the medium term, due to the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term capital inflows, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is that the market will fluctuate with a slightly bearish trend [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered, and the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, and the yield curve flattened. - The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. Traditional growth - stabilizing areas released many growth - stabilizing signals, exceeding market expectations. It mentioned "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and required "maintaining ample liquidity", which is positive for macro - assets in terms of liquidity. - Fiscal policy requires "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure". It is expected that the deficit ratio will remain stable next year, and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately, which will positively guide the market's total demand expectations. - The long - end of the treasury bond futures market led the rise, and the short - end followed. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, indicating the value of the ultra - long end. The logic of asset shortage, the easing of deflation pressure, and the loose tone of monetary policy provide medium - and long - term bottom support for the bond market, but attention should be paid to the impact of equity market fluctuations and policy implementation rhythm on the long - end [4][6]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text, only a figure title is mentioned [8]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change of net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.67%; foreign capital decreased by 0.61%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.44%. - In terms of the weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.91%; foreign capital increased by 1.9%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.11% [10].

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

11日凌晨，美联储公布年内最后一次利率决议。 "三连降" 继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，美联储再宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 对此次降息，美联储内部存在分歧，12名投票委员中，有3人投票反对，这是自2019年9月以来首次出现该情况。美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)分析 称，9比3的投票结果再次体现了美联储内部鹰派和鸽派的分歧，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德均投票反对降息，而美 联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰则呼吁降息0.5个百分点。在美联储内部，鹰派通常更关注通胀，倾向于维持高利率，而鸽派则更关注劳动力市场，希望降低利率。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，希望通货膨胀得到控制，回落到2%以下，也希望劳动力市场强劲；由于关税的影响，通胀仍然"处于较高水平"； 美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径；政策在朝着中性利率方向调整，目前已处于中性利率区间的高位。 资本市场对美联储降息反应明显，美股三大指数集体攀升，截至发稿，道指涨超1%，纳指翻红涨0.48%，标普500指数涨0.77%。美联储还宣布恢复美国国债 的购买，美债收 ...

（原标题：国联民生：2026年什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 关注第三、四季度经济节奏阶段 性反转可能性） 除此之外，迫于国内的通胀压力，白宫可能会进一步向下调整关税水平，这一方面是会缓解非美经济体 的压力，另一方面则会导致美国财政的进一步恶化。 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生发布研报称，明年美元预计仍处于弱周期中，但是可能并没有想象中那么 差：年初需要警惕的是特朗普提名的新联储主席在宽松上"措辞谨慎"，明年下半年则要警惕美国和非美 经济体经济表现的阶段性强弱转换。而期间则需要关注日本央行的独立性问题，以及法国等高负债欧洲 国家的阶段性财政担忧。 国联民生主要观点如下： 最近几年，站在年末看下一年的美元走势很容易出错。以去年年底为例子，特朗普意外横扫、重回白宫 之后，市场情绪亢奋，在经济过热、通胀上行预期的指引下，多数人认为美元会延续强势，结果今年美 元在1月就见顶，年内最多跌超10%。如果站在今年年底来判断，美元偏弱可能是明年的基本情形。 如果明年美元有再次违背预期的可能，什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 为什么市场认为明年美元会偏弱？没有了美国例外论的光环，市场会更加客观地看待美国和非美之间的 关系： ...