Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

Group 1 - Silver prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase to $36.57 per ounce, marking a rise of 0.55% [1] - The opening price for silver today was $36.34 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.71 and a low of $36.27 [1] - Market expectations are building around the Federal Reserve signaling a potential interest rate cut, which may limit short-term gains for silver prices [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes reveal a divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, contributing to rising gold prices [2] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data continues to cool, the likelihood of a rate cut in September will increase, potentially weakening the dollar and supporting higher gold prices [2] - Trade tensions are expected to impact global economic growth, with new tariffs likely raising import costs and inflation pressures, enhancing gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [2] Group 3 - Aviva Investors anticipates a flattening of the long end of the Japanese government bond yield curve, suggesting a shift from long-term to short-term bond issuance [2] - The company notes that while monetary policy remains cautiously tightening, the timing of interest rate hikes remains highly uncertain [2] - Japanese automakers are significantly reducing export prices to the U.S. in response to high tariffs, with vehicle export price index to North America dropping 19.4% year-on-year, the largest decline since 2016 [2]

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[5] - The GDP deflator index is projected to be around -0.9% for Q2, compared to -0.8% in Q1[5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline widened from 3.3% to 3.6%, with production materials dropping by 4.4% year-on-year[35] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month[35] Group 3: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Actual inventory growth has increased from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[12] - The actual inventory growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing sectors has decreased significantly, impacting PPI positively when it approaches zero[13] - Among 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[17]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.36% to surpass 3500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 934.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF, Boshi (511130), opened lower and fell by 24 basis points during the session, with a trading volume of nearly 2.5 billion yuan and a turnover rate exceeding 30%. The ETF has seen a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past five days [1][2] - Huatai Futures indicated that the central bank's continuous net injection has maintained a loose market liquidity, leading to a widening yield spread, reflecting a certain expectation for short-term liquidity easing [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported June inflation data, with the CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and the PPI declining by 3.6%, indicating weak overall performance that is unfavorable for endogenous growth in domestic demand [1] - Baocheng Futures noted that the current weak inflation performance and insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand, combined with external demand being susceptible to tariff impacts, suggest a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the previous month[2] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak demand and delayed transmission of raw material prices to related industries[3] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, with domestic raw material prices contributing approximately 0.18 percentage points to this decline[5] - The increase in green electricity has led to a 0.9% month-on-month drop in electricity supply PPI[3] Group 3: CPI Insights - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with rental prices rising by 0.1%, lower than the 0.25% increase seen in the same period from 2015 to 2019[4] - Durable goods prices improved, with transportation prices down 0.4%, better than the average decline of 0.6% over the past three years[4] - Medical service prices have increased for three consecutive months by 0.3%, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend[4] Group 4: Inventory and PPI Relationship - Actual inventory growth has risen from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[6] - The mining and upstream manufacturing sectors have seen significant declines in actual inventory growth, impacting PPI positively when inventory levels drop[6] - In 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing four months of negative growth[2] - The month-on-month CPI decline narrowed from -0.2% in May to -0.1% in June, slightly above the average decline of -0.18% from 2020 to 2024[2] - Core CPI rose to 0.7%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to May, marking four consecutive months of increasing decline[2] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained at -0.4%, indicating persistent downward pressure on industrial prices[2] - Factors contributing to PPI decline include abundant supply in domestic raw material manufacturing, seasonal price decreases, and reduced demand for thermal coal due to increased green energy[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite a slight rebound in CPI, consumer demand remains weak, and PPI continues to face downward pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and intensified competition among enterprises[3] - The central government's recent emphasis on regulating low-price competition may help improve supply-demand structures and provide some support for future price stability[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies, unexpected interest rate changes, and concentrated credit events that could impact CPI and PPI forecasts[4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The continued upward trend of the stock index requires policy support, and the market risk preference is positive in the near term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is also oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and slightly corrected yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 1527.4 billion yuan, an increase of 52.8 billion yuan from the previous day, and more than 3300 stocks fell. The inflation data in June showed weak domestic demand. The rebound of the stock index since late June was driven by policy expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, while external demand may be affected by tariffs. Policy support is needed, and the market is waiting for the policy implementation after the Politburo meeting in July. So the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which aligns with market expectations[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since May 2024, indicating a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023, reflecting weakened domestic demand and overcapacity in certain industries[6] Group 2: Price Movements and Influences - Industrial consumer goods prices rebounded, significantly contributing to the CPI increase, with fuel prices declining by 10.8% year-on-year, a reduction of 2.1 percentage points[6] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was exacerbated by significant drops in coal, steel, and cement prices, with coal prices falling by 21.8%[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The outlook for pork prices suggests they will remain stable, while energy prices may face downward pressure due to geopolitical risks[2] - The Central Financial Committee's focus on addressing "involution" in competition may help stabilize prices in various sectors, emphasizing the importance of demand-side policies alongside supply-side optimization[2] - To promote a recovery in consumer prices, both supply and demand sides must work together, with a focus on enhancing employment and social security to boost household income[6]