7月31日美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政 策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，7月30日白银etf持有量为15149.90吨，较上一交易日减持24.02吨。周三（7月30 日）现货白银尾盘收于37.13美元/盎司，下跌2.76%，盘中白银价格最高上探至38.24美元/盎司，最低触及36.77美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，他们尚未就9月会议作出任何决定，无法在六周后依据6月份的预测（点阵图）来做决策。就目前 而言，关于中性利率存在多种不同看法。鲍威尔个人的判断是（当前政策）处于适度限制性区间，不过（各方）对此存在一系列 不同的预估。 面对当前的经济环境，鲍威尔表示，受到关税相关新闻的影响，近期一些衡量通胀预期的指标整体有所上升，无论是市场基础 的，还是调查所得的预期。但从更长期来看，大多数通胀预期指标仍然与美联储2%的目标相符。美联储将继续根据最新数据、经 济前景的变化以及各种风险的平衡来决定货币政策的适当立场。 鲍威尔指出，尽管 ...

鲍威尔还提到，在关于政策的讨论中，多数观点认为，当前通胀高于目标水平，就业处于目标水平，因 此政策应保持一定的限制性。事实上，通胀距离目标比就业更远，劳动力市场是目前拥有的最佳经济数 据，从辞职率、职位空缺数和失业率等指标来看，就业市场仍然稳固，许多就业指标与一年前的情况类 似。但市场仍存在下行风险，在下次会议之前，还有两份就业和通胀报告。 新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 鲍威尔指出，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市 场已达到或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的 经济变化时能及时应对。 关于通胀，鲍威尔表示，通胀虽然较2022年高点回落，但仍略高于2%的目标。目前存在"追赶性通 胀"，这反映了过去的压力，且无法将关税对通胀的影响单独剥离出来，同时服务业通胀正在下降，商 品通胀正在上升。他特别指出，关税开始在消费者价格中体现，核心通胀中有0.3至0.4个百分点是由关 税因素导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a flexible approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be made based on the actual effects of neutral interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will assess the impact of neutral interest rates in real-time [1] - Powell stated that the approach will involve ongoing evaluations rather than predetermined paths [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there are various perspectives on the neutral interest rate at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% this week, with potential dissent from dovish members Waller and Bowman, indicating a possibility of faster rate cuts in the future as more Trump-appointed officials join the board [1] Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at Platts, Urupeirsi, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week [1] - Dovish members Waller and Bowman may argue for a rate cut, citing restrictive monetary policy due to inflation related to tariffs being offset by other factors [1] - The neutral interest rate is suggested to be close to 3%, which could support arguments for lowering rates [1] Group 2 - Powell is expected to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October compared to September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is cautious about lowering interest rates too quickly and is waiting for more data before making further decisions [1] Group 1 - The RBA decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.85% during its recent meeting, marking the third time it has refrained from a rate cut in four meetings, which surprised the market [1] - The majority of the nine committee members believe that the current rate of 3.85% remains moderately restrictive, but there is uncertainty about how much further rates can be lowered before reaching neutral [1] - The meeting minutes indicate that committee members consider it wise to cautiously lower rates as the need for policy restriction diminishes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statement by Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a shift in the internal perspective on current monetary policy, suggesting a potential move towards interest rate cuts due to reassessments of economic fundamentals, employment, and inflation [1] Group 1: Reasons for Supporting Rate Cuts - Waller's first reason highlights that new import tariffs may temporarily raise prices, but these are one-time changes and should not warrant a high interest rate response, as inflation expectations remain stable [3] - He emphasizes that the current federal funds rate is significantly above the neutral rate, which is estimated to be around 3%, while the current rate exceeds 5%, indicating a tight monetary policy that is not supported by economic data [3] - Economic growth is projected to be weak, with GDP growth in the first half of the year potentially at only 1%, and unemployment nearing long-term levels at 4.1%, suggesting that maintaining high rates is a lagging response to economic conditions [3] Group 2: Employment Market Concerns - Waller warns against being misled by seemingly stable employment data, noting that many labor market indicators may be revised downwards, and private sector job growth is nearly stagnant [4] - He points out that risks in the employment market are accumulating, advocating for preemptive measures rather than reactive ones when unemployment rises significantly [4] - The statement signals that the current high interest rate policy may be disconnected from the actual macroeconomic situation, with inflation near targets and economic growth insufficient, making continued high rates seem inappropriate [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses a desire to provide slightly more stimulus through interest rate cuts [1] - Evidence suggests that the neutral interest rate is not far from 3% [1] - There has been no discussion with the Trump administration regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the current interest rate level is above the neutral rate level prior to the pandemic [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate is considered higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that the economy is approaching a neutral interest rate, suggesting a potential stabilization in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is assessing its current position relative to the neutral interest rate, which is a critical benchmark for monetary policy [1] - Harker's comments reflect a broader sentiment within the Federal Reserve regarding the current economic conditions and interest rate adjustments [1] - The indication of being close to the neutral rate may influence market expectations and investment strategies moving forward [1]