| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、芳烃板块氛围走强，下旬 PX、TA 增仓上涨 | 3 | | | 二、乙二醇低位反弹，低价对供应变动较为敏感 | 8 | | | 三、临近春节聚酯检修停车增多，江浙终端开机下降 | 10 | | | 四、关于石脑油消费税对化工供给侧的影响 | 12 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯研发报告 聚酯 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 聚酯淡季创新高，需求端跟进不足 【行情回顾】 1 月下旬，PX、TA 期货增仓上涨，估值在去年 12 月末拉升后伴随着一段 时间的震荡回调再次走高。淡季聚酯原料创新高，核心因素就是资金基于 TA 的 投产周期结束，随着行业产能扩张收尾，25 年虹港石化 3 期 250 万吨装置于 6 月投产，三房巷 3 期 320 万吨装置两条线分别于 7、8 月投产，独山能源 4 期 300 万吨装置于 10 月投产，全年新增产能累计 870 万吨，截至目前中国大陆地 区 PTA 产能基数调整至 9209 万吨。PTA2026年迎来投产真 ...

今年以来，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场对美联储独立性的担忧以及政府预算赤字膨胀，共同推动金价 大幅走高。这延续了自2023年以来的惊人涨势，而那轮涨势主要受到央行购金、美联储宽松货币政策以 及亚洲投资者买入的驱动。 1月30日，黄金价格延续走低，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至5145美元，随后止跌回升，目前交 投于5264美元附近，黄金有色等资源股重挫，晓程科技、四川黄金、中金黄金、铜陵有色、白银有色等 批量跌停，截至11:05，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌6.39%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌8.62%，黄金股 ETF（159562）跌9.82%。 宝城期货分析指出，展望后市，黄金价格将成为衡量全球政治经济不确定性深度与信用风险溢价的实时 标尺。短期走势将紧密跟随地缘政治事件的演变，而中期波动则与美国"财政-货币"政策的协同与矛盾 直接相关。长期价值则根本上取决于美元信用体系的演变与全球储备资产多元化的实质进程。尽管需警 惕极高价位下的技术性回调与流动性波动风险，但推动金价的结构性力量并未减弱。黄金的角色已深刻 变化，它不仅是传统意义上的避险资产，更是市场对全球化进程深刻调整和主权信用进行重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang refuted claims that the U.S. plans to transfer 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor capacity to the U.S., asserting that the construction of global fabs represents new capacity rather than a transfer of existing capacity [2] Group 1: Semiconductor Capacity and Production - Huang emphasized that TSMC must expand globally to meet the surge in AI-driven chip demand while maintaining Taiwan's core market status [2] - He explained that current wafer demand exceeds Taiwan's physical grid capacity, making overseas production a necessity rather than a political strategy [2] - Despite TSMC's plans to build and expand fabs in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the majority of production will remain in Taiwan due to its unmatched manufacturing ecosystem [2] Group 2: Importance of Memory and Chip Supply - For Nvidia, substantial capacity in both Taiwan and the U.S. is crucial, with sufficient memory (HBM, DDR5, GDDR7, LPDDR5X, NAND flash) being as important as logic chip capacity [3] - Huang stated that the company is closely collaborating with major HBM suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—to ensure chip supply for the next-generation AI accelerator, Rubin [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - Huang discussed the need for legislators to balance three conflicting goals: national security, technological leadership, and economic competitiveness [3] - He refuted comments from Anthropic's CEO regarding the export of advanced AI processors to China, clarifying that the U.S. government has determined that selling Nvidia's H200 processors to Chinese entities does not compromise national security [3] - Huang noted that the approval for these processors to enter the Chinese market now depends on the Chinese government, as Nvidia awaits regulatory approval [3] Group 4: Engagements in Taiwan - During his visit to Taiwan, Huang plans to attend internal Nvidia meetings and Lunar New Year events, as well as meet with TSMC founder Morris Chang and Chairman Mark Liu [3]

在当今全球经济紧密相连的背景下，国际商贸往往与国家安全、地缘政治交织在一起，达尔文港租约的事件便是这样一个典型例子。近期，中 国驻澳大使肖千公开喊话，明确表示若澳大利亚强制收回达尔文港的租约，中方将采取反制措施。这不仅是一个商业合同的问题，更是中澳关 系中的契约精神与地缘政治影响的一次重大考验。 那么，事情的缘由到底是什么？事实是，在数年前，岚桥集团通过公开透明的竞标过程获得了达尔文港为期99年的租约。这一行为完全符合澳 大利亚的法律法规，并且在过去的十年中，该公司持续投入资本，成功地扭转了原本亏损的经营状况，不仅改善了港口的基础设施，还促进了 当地经济的发展。然而，正当这一切成果逐渐显现之时，澳大利亚政府却因外部势力的压力，开始对该租约态度摇摆，甚至出现了强制收回的 论调。 在全球经济一体化的大背景下，各国间的商业合作愈发依赖于互信与合作，而非以"国家安全"作为干预的借口。近年来，动辄以安全为理由干 扰正常商业活动的做法只会加剧国际市场的不确定性。而达尔文港事件，便是全球经贸秩序面临检验的缩影。 此时此刻，中澳双方都需要认真思考这一事件的深远影响。如果没有理智的沟通与务实的对话，单边行动只会让双方都陷入更深 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the non - ferrous metals (copper) industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been continuously trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure, with converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper social inventories, indicating pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [6][63]. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing. Major economies are adopting looser monetary policies, releasing large - scale liquidity, leading to an upswing in global stock and commodity markets. Copper has stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 infinite QE high in Q4 2025, supported by its solid supply - demand fundamentals [6][63]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of macro - easing, rigid supply constraints and green intelligent demand will continue to drive up copper prices, strengthening the long - term upward foundation for copper prices. However, frequent global geopolitical events since the New Year and the significant price increase since December 2025 have led to strong short - term profit - taking intentions. Copper prices may oscillate at high levels, waiting for the industry to catch up [6][64]. 3. Summary by Report Sections 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend: The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper reached 700,000 contracts at one point and then declined as the upward trend of copper prices slowed [9]. - Market Structure: The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. Converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous inventory build - up in the domestic electrolytic copper market indicate pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fluctuating Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts - In January 2026, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March or April dropped from around 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% by the end of the month. The decline in the rate - cut probability was accompanied by a rebound of the US dollar index, which then weakened due to the intensification of US tariff policies towards Europe and South Korea [14]. 3.2.2 Frequent Geopolitical Events - Since the New Year, geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue have increased gold prices and reduced market risk appetite, negatively affecting copper prices. These ongoing geopolitical hotspots have created a high - risk, low - certainty international environment that suppresses the risk appetite of the global market and exerts downward pressure on copper prices [15]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Easing and High - Quality Industrial Development - In January 2026, China's fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies were coordinated to support domestic demand, scientific innovation, and market expectations, providing a solid macro - policy foundation for copper's downstream demand. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, which will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors and strengthen copper's strategic position in energy transformation [17]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Persistent Disturbances at the Mining End - From January to November 2025, the global copper mine production increased by only about 1% year - on - year. Some major copper mines faced declining ore grades and unexpected incidents, which restricted production growth. - In Chile, the total production decreased by 1.3% due to the decline in some mines. In Peru, production increased by 2.4% due to the increase in several mines. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production was estimated to increase by 6.5%. Mongolia's copper concentrate production increased by 34%, while Indonesia's production decreased by about 40% [18][19]. 3.3.2 Marginal Relaxation of Domestic Mining Supply - On January 23, 2026, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons month - on - month and about 140,000 tons year - on - year, indicating tightening domestic copper ore supply. The high sulfuric acid price and low TC processing fees in January led to a decline in smelter profits compared to December [20][25]. 3.3.3 Contraction of Refined Copper Supply - From January to November 2025, the global electrolytic copper production was 26.177 million tons, a 3.81% increase year - on - year, with primary copper increasing by 3.08% and recycled copper by 7.44%. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (accounting for about 57% of global production) are expected to have a combined growth of 9%, while the rest of the world's refined copper production decreased by about 1.7% [26][27]. - The global electrolytic copper consumption from January to November 2025 was 25.89 million tons, a 3.96% increase year - on - year. China's apparent demand for refined copper is expected to increase by about 5.5%, with a 11% decline in net imports. Ex - China consumption increased by about 1.8% [30][31][32]. 3.3.4 Counter - seasonal Inventory Build - up of Electrolytic Copper - As of January 26, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 962,100 tons, an increase of 210,400 tons from the previous month and 510,400 tons from the same period last year. There was a significant divergence between domestic and overseas inventories, with overseas inventories rising continuously at a high level and domestic inventories building up seasonally [41][44]. 3.3.5 Downstream End - Users - Power grid infrastructure construction underpins about 50% of copper's terminal consumption. The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors [46][48]. - In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.89GW, a 33.25% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative new wind power installed capacity was 82.5GW, a 59.42% increase year - on - year. - In 2025, the real estate industry showed negative growth in development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. - In 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased slightly, while home appliance exports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.7785 million vehicles, a 9.8% increase year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle production was 16.524 million vehicles, a 25.1% increase year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 47.51% [51][55][58][61]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing, and copper has outperformed in the asset rally due to its solid supply - demand fundamentals. - In 2026, copper prices have a solid long - term upward foundation but may oscillate at high levels in the short term due to geopolitical events and profit - taking intentions [63][64].

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 1.38%报 1202元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 2.1%报30358 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 29 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1086.53 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 112.76 吨，当前持仓量为 15523.36 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.4%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 8 ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，地缘再度发酵 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,719.0 | 0.06% | 370 | 3,186 | -309 | 0.12 | 0.28 | | | EC2604 | 1,229.0 | 4.36% | 38,983 | 40,146 | 1,499 | 0.97 | 0.65 | | | EC2606 | 1,493.2 | 4.62% | 4,954 | 9,602 | 1,690 | 0.52 | 0.32 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/1/26 | | 单 位 | | ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide a comprehensive industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual products, the general outlooks are mostly "震荡" (oscillating), which implies a neutral stance in the short - to - medium term for most energy and chemical products. 2. Core Viewpoints - The confrontation between the US and Iran has intensified, driving up Brent crude oil futures prices to $70 per barrel for the first time since September, and SC crude oil futures almost hit the daily limit. This has led to an increase in the cost of oil - based chemical products. Meanwhile, the chemical industry chain is entering the off - season, with开工率 (operating rates) of many downstream sectors such as textile and polyester declining [2]. - The overall view is that the situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran relationship, will support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry should be treated with an oscillating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical factors dominate the market rhythm. The situation in Iran is expected to increase supply concerns, and short - term support comes from a weak US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook is oscillating as the fundamental supply is in surplus, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: Geopolitical premiums and rising spot prices have led to a significant increase in asphalt futures prices. Although the current price is in an over - valued range, the cost of crude oil supports the price. The outlook is oscillating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The inventory accumulation pressure is high due to the off - season demand [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premiums support high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela and the substitution of fuel oil in the Middle East's power - generation sector are long - term negative factors. The outlook is oscillating, with short - term focus on geopolitical trends in the Middle East [9]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil and oscillates strongly. Although it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation may lead it to follow the movement of crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [12]. 3.5 PX - **View**: The valuation of chemical products is relatively high, and the price increase is less than that of crude oil. The short - term supply and demand pattern is prone to inventory accumulation, but the market has expectations for future supply reduction due to maintenance. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with short - term price support at around 7,250 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract [13]. 3.6 PTA - **View**: Supply has increased, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and profits have been compressed. The cost support from rising international oil prices remains, but the high valuation of the chemical industry limits the price increase. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with support at around 5,200 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: It oscillates due to the game between expectations and reality. Short - term high inventory may limit the price increase, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in the first quarter. The outlook is oscillating [15]. 3.8 Styrene - **View**: Recent price increases are due to capital behavior and export expectations. The short - term supply is tight, but seasonal inventory accumulation may lead to a profit reduction. The outlook is oscillating, and the reduction amplitude is expected to be limited [18]. 3.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The driving force is general, and it is more affected by the commodity market atmosphere and device disturbances. The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to adjust within a range. The outlook is for short - term price consolidation within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract [19]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Spot trading is weak, and the driving force is general. The cost has a certain supporting effect, but the demand is seasonally weak. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream market, and the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end [22]. 3.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations, and the support at the lower end of the profit is strengthening. The price is mainly anchored to the cost of upstream raw materials and has no obvious trend. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw material price, the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end, and attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA position [24]. 3.12 Methanol - **View**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic production area is reducing prices to clear inventory, while the consumer market is relatively strong. The coastal market is affected by the low - start of downstream MTO devices and high inventory. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term trading may be mainly affected by overseas situations [26]. 3.13 Urea - **View**: The pre - holiday factory order collection is smooth, and the price is slightly strengthening. The supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector has a certain increase, while the industrial demand is cautious. The outlook is oscillating, and in the short - term, the price may fluctuate slightly and may be slightly strengthening [27]. 3.14 LLDPE - **View**: Supported by raw materials, it follows the upward trend. The increase in oil prices and natural gas prices has a positive impact, but the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up of spot prices is limited. The outlook is short - term oscillation [32]. 3.15 PP - **View**: It follows the upward trend of oil prices in the short - term. The increase in oil prices and the repair of production profits are positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. The outlook is short - term oscillation [33]. 3.16 PL - **View**: The inventory pressure is not large, and it oscillates. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The outlook is short - term oscillation [34]. 3.17 PVC - **View**: Supported by low valuation, it oscillates. Geopolitical factors and the "export at low prices" strategy provide certain support, but the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term "export at low prices" and low valuation support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed [37]. 3.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The electricity price has been slightly reduced, and the cost is decreasing. The high production and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation, and the spot price is under pressure. The outlook is oscillating and slightly weakening, and short positions should stop losses at low prices before the Spring Festival [39]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides detailed inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different contract spreads [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for multiple products, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [42]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and between PTA and ethylene glycol, which helps in analyzing the relative price relationships between different products [43]. 4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the sub - sections for each product are listed, the specific data and analysis content are not fully filled in the report. 5. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all show an upward trend. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by + 2.61% to 2995.74, and the energy index rose by + 2.48% to 1195.87 on January 29, 2026 [283][284].