Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Overall Situation**: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - **Device Changes**: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - **Balance Sheet**: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - **Downstream Demand**: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - **Seat Net Position**: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - **Overall Situation**: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - **Device Changes**: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - **Balance Sheet**: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - **Price Difference**: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - **Overall Situation**: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - **Device Changes**: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - **Profit**: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peanut market is affected by rainfall in production areas, with the spot price remaining strong. This week, the 01 peanut contract showed a strong and volatile trend, and the 1 - 4 spread remained stable. It is recommended to try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy, consider buying 01 and 05 peanuts on dips, and conduct a reverse spread operation on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - **Trading Logic**: Peanut trading volume decreased. In the domestic market, the price of general - purpose peanuts in Henan dropped, while that in the Northeast rose. The purchase price of oil mills remained stable. The import volume of peanuts decreased significantly, the operating rate of oil mills increased, the spot price of peanut meal was stable, the price of peanut oil was stable, and the profit of oil mill crushing decreased. Downstream consumption was still weak. The peanut inventory of oil mills decreased, but the peanut oil inventory continued to rise. Due to rainfall during the peanut harvest in Henan and other places, the peanut quality declined, and the peanut spot price remained strong [6]. - **Strategy**: The peanut market is expected to be strong and volatile. Consider buying 01 and 05 peanuts on dips [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Conduct a reverse spread operation on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: - **Domestic Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan dropped, while that in the Northeast rose. The price of general - purpose peanuts in Shandong remained stable. The price of general - purpose peanuts showed mixed trends. For example, the price of new - season peanuts in Henan's Zhengyang dropped by 0.1 yuan/jin to 4.2 yuan/jin, and the price of Baisha peanuts in Liaoning's Changtu rose by 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.15 yuan/jin [11]. - **Oil Mill Peanuts**: The purchase price of oil mills remained stable, with most still not purchasing. The basic purchase price of oil mills was around 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Imported Peanuts**: The price of imported peanuts remained stable. The price of new Sudanese peanuts was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price of Senegalese oil - type peanuts was 7800 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Demand**: - **Oil Mill Operating Rate**: As of October 16, the operating rate of peanut oil mills was 8.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.55% [15]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The arrival volume of oil mills this week was 0.87 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons from last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills was 3.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week [15]. - **Pressing Profit**: - The purchase price of peanut oil mills increased, the price of peanut meal was stable, and the price of peanut oil was stable. As a result, the profit of oil mill crushing was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week [19]. - The average price of first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of small - squeezed fragrant peanut oil was 16,500 yuan/ton, also remaining stable [19]. - Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and the price of peanut meal was weak, remaining at 3200 yuan/ton this week [19]. - **Basis and Spread**: - **Spread**: This week, due to the strong performance of the 01 peanut contract, the 1 - 4 spread of peanuts remained stable at around - 116 yuan [26]. - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: It declined [26]. - **Peanut Import**: - **Peanut Kernel Import**: In August, the import volume of peanut kernels was 26,000 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 129,000 tons, a 75% decrease compared to the same period last year [30]. - **Peanut Kernel Export**: In August, the export volume of peanut kernels was 10,000 tons. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 105,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year [30]. - **Peanut Oil Import**: In August, the import volume of peanut oil was 31,000 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import volume of peanut oil was 254,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking The content mainly presents various data charts related to peanuts, including price trends, operating rates, inventory changes, import and export volumes, etc., but no specific data analysis and summary are provided in the text. The data includes historical price trends of peanuts in different regions, the operating rate of peanut oil mills, peanut and peanut oil inventories, pressing profits, and import and export volumes of peanuts and peanut oil over different time periods [10][14][18][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving factors are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal chemical industry are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Outer - market prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is high [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 700, and export is good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be alleviated to neutral [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent caustic soda export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' spot and relevant indicators changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2228 to 2305, and the import profit remained unchanged at 325 [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic focuses on the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has potential demand, but port reverse flow impacts inland valuation. Xingxing's operation situation and inventory accumulation also affect the market. Import variables such as Indian purchases from Iran and unplanned maintenance should be noted [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 785. The prices of various polyethylene products in different regions changed. For example, the North China LL price decreased from 6980 to 6880, and the import profit changed from 14 to - 84 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Inventory is neutral overall. Attention should be paid to factors such as LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6450 to 6200, and other prices and indicators also changed. For example, the export profit increased from - 33 to - 16 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Valuation indicators are in a certain state. Future supply and demand are affected by factors such as exports and PDH device maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained stable at 2400 in some days, and other prices and indicators had minor changes. For example, the export profit decreased from 408 to 424 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity implementation, exports, coal prices, and terminal orders in Q4 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the trading situation of soybeans and soybean meal futures. It indicates that soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation with capital and technical - based trading, while soybeans are in an oscillation state. The prices of related futures and spot products are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4018 yuan/ton during the day session, up 30 yuan (+0.75%), and 4029 yuan/ton at night, up 9 yuan (+0.22%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2907 yuan/ton during the day session, down 7 yuan (-0.24%), and 2891 yuan/ton at night, down 24 yuan (-0.82%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1011.75 cents/bushel, up 4.75 cents (+0.47%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 277.3 dollars/short ton, up 1.4 dollars (+0.51%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2960 - 2980 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2910 yuan/ton, remaining flat; in South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, remaining flat or up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.52 million tons/day, and the inventory was 104.67 million tons/week, compared with 11 million tons/day and 115.28 million tons/week in the previous period [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong domestic demand, offsetting concerns about Sino - US trade tensions. Due to the government shutdown and the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders at the end of the month, key crop data has not been released, and trading remains cautious. China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums, which may prompt China to use national reserves to meet short - term demand. The US Agriculture Secretary said the US can supply soybeans to South American countries for crushing, but no details were provided [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper pulp market has limited rebound momentum due to weak downstream procurement, sufficient spot supply, especially for broadleaf pulp, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts. The market is expected to remain in a state of weak consolidation. For the offset printing paper market, the future supply - demand structure is difficult to improve significantly. With the implementation of复产 capacity, supply is expected to increase, while demand in October is hard to be significantly boosted, showing an overall weak trend [11][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot prices of various types of offset printing paper remained stable on a daily basis, with no change in the daily and weekly price ratios. In the futures market, the 01 - contract of offset printing paper closed at 4206, down 0.24% daily and 0.36% weekly. The trading volume decreased by 12.69% daily and 0.99% weekly, while the open interest increased by 1.14% daily and remained unchanged weekly [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot prices of some paper pulp varieties remained stable, with some minor adjustments in individual brands. In the futures market, the 11 - contract of paper pulp closed at 4856, up 0.21% daily and 0.46% weekly. The trading volume decreased by 19.63% daily and 38.44% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 12.46% daily and 28.57% weekly. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3611 daily and 4430 weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Review - **Paper Pulp**: The futures contracts showed a slight rebound. The SP main 11 - contract closed at 4856 points at night, up 10 points or 0.21%. In the spot market, the coniferous pulp market was mostly stable, with some slightly increasing prices but limited high - price transactions. The imported broadleaf pulp market was mainly stable, and the imported chemical mechanical pulp market was in a stalemate [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot prices of high - white offset paper in the Shandong market were between 4600 - 4750 yuan/ton, and some natural - white offset paper prices were between 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The prices of raw material wood pulp and wood chips were mostly stable, and the wood chip market acquisition price was strengthening. The OP2601 futures contract fluctuated, closing at 4206 points, down 10 points or 0.24% [16]. 3.3 Important Information - **Paper Pulp**: The environmental impact assessment pre - research work for the expansion project (Phase III) of the 200,000 - ton bamboo pulp and paper integration bamboo industry structure adjustment (replacing plastic with bamboo) of Taisheng (Guizhou) Bamboo Resources Development Co., Ltd. has been launched. In September, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow [9][10]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: After the National Day holiday, the PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line of Jiulong Paper's Beihai Base was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons. In September, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow [17][18]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - **Paper Pulp**: The slowdown in the shipping speed due to weak downstream procurement led to inventory accumulation. The abundant spot supply, especially for broadleaf pulp, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts made the market rebound difficult [11]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The future supply - demand structure of offset paper is difficult to improve significantly. The supply is expected to increase with the implementation of复产 capacity, and the demand in October is hard to be significantly boosted, with downstream paper mills mainly purchasing for rigid demand [19]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Paper Pulp**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, continue to pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For options, wait and see [12][13]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: For single - side trading, short the 01 - contract based on the lower limit of the spot market price. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell the OP2601 - C - 4400 [20][21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On October 15, the nickel market showed a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 15, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation, with inventory accumulation and a loosening cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,010 yuan/ton, 120,900 yuan/ton, 121,330 yuan/ton, and 121,550 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 83,761 hands (-26,323), and the open interest was 68,681 hands (-4,426). LME3 - month nickel official price was 15,210 dollars/ton, up 0.10% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122,300 yuan/ton. Nickel bean average price was 123,550 yuan/ton. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,500 yuan/ton. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,450 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,558 tons (+1,531). LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 240,486 tons (-240,486), and cancelled warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-6,270). The total LME nickel inventory was 246,756 tons (+3,498) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global refined nickel production was 323,300 tons, consumption was 273,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 49,900 tons. From January to August 2025, global refined nickel production was 2,549,400 tons, consumption was 2,244,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 305,100 tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,345 yuan/ton, 12,525 yuan/ton, 12,560 yuan/ton, and 12,660 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 113,216 hands (-37,540), and the open interest was 193,490 hands (+3,239) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,550 yuan/ton. 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) average price was 12,500 yuan/ton. 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) average price was 25,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+33,900) [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid China's sanctions on South Korean shipbuilders and the uncertain Sino - US trade friction, the market may remain volatile. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2][6]. - Although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6]. Summary by Related Content Freight Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [4]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [4]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service industry PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. As of October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [6]. - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under downward pressure [6]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [7]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7]

Group 1 - The main contract for crude oil futures at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange closed higher, with a price of 443.8 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.14% or 0.6 yuan [1] - Trading volume decreased to 54,700 contracts, while open interest fell by 5,021 contracts to 18,198 contracts [1] - In the overnight market, WTI crude oil futures declined by 0.73%, settling at $58.27 per barrel [1]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and interest changes of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [3]. - Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, FC Index, etc., along with their price changes [3]. - Price differences between different contracts (inter - period spreads), between cotton and cotton yarn (inter - variety spreads), and between domestic and foreign markets are shown [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' First Division in Alar has 2 million mu of cotton entering the picking and purchasing peak season, and a meeting was held to promote the orderly, fair, and efficient operation of seed - cotton purchasing [6]. - The pre - sale price of new cotton for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable, with the pre - sale basis of machine - picked cotton in Aksu region around CF01 + 900 [6]. - In September 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was $221.686 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang's cotton output is high and ginneries' purchasing enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to purchase. As new cotton is abundantly listed, there may be selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7]. - The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations, lower - than - expected new cotton output, and poor quality of some new cotton, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton has slowed down. Pure - cotton yarn prices remained stable overall, with some manufacturers' quotes still slightly decreasing, and the actual transaction center of gravity gradually declined [9]. - The demand peak season in the pure - cotton fabric market is not prosperous, with a weak trading atmosphere and prices being stable but slightly weak. Weaving mills' orders are mostly small and scattered, and they hope to receive spring - summer order sampling work in November [11]. Group 3: Options - Information on cotton options, including option contract names, underlying contract prices, closing prices, price change percentages, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage, is provided [13]. - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton is 8.4519, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.7661, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [14]. - Option strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton contracts (CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01) [16][18][24].

Report Summary Core View - The essence of futures trading is a long - term psychological and disciplinary battle, and the most important thing is to persevere, especially in the face of losses, doubts, and loneliness [2][3]. - Many traders fail due to "mid - course changes", while adhering to a proven trading system can lead to success [3]. - An effective trading system should be strictly followed, and emotional trading and poor execution can lead to losses [4]. - Persistence also means respecting "waiting", as most of the time in futures trading is unprofitable but crucial for eventual success [4]. - Persistence does not equal stubbornness; core principles should be adhered to while details can be optimized according to market changes [5]. Examples and Evidence - A senior trader adhered to a trend - tracking strategy despite a more than 40% account drawdown in 2020 and achieved doubled profits in 2021 when the agricultural product bull market started [3]. - In the three - year siege of Handan, the city's victory was due to will, organization, and discipline, which is similar to the requirements in futures trading [2][4]. Comparison and Analogy - The Handan Defense War is compared to futures trading, highlighting the importance of will, organization, and discipline in both scenarios [2][4]. - Traders' inconsistent actions in futures trading are likened to soldiers' desertion in a war, leading to failure [4].