Group 1 - The European Central Bank's report indicates that by 2024, gold's share in global central bank reserves will rise to 20%, surpassing the euro's 16%, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks' demand for gold is projected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, significantly higher than the 10% average from 2010 to 2020 [1] - The net purchases of gold by central banks are expected to exceed 1000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, setting a historical record [1] Group 2 - Jewelry and investment in gold continue to dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] - A survey by the World Gold Council reveals that central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and debt defaults [1] - Geopolitical factors have increasingly influenced central bank investments in gold, with one-quarter of emerging market central banks citing these factors as a primary driver for their gold holdings [1] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to surge by approximately 30% in 2024, with the inflation-adjusted price exceeding the peak during the 1979 oil crisis [1] - Traditionally, gold is viewed as a hedge against fluctuations in real interest rates; however, since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has been disrupted, with geopolitical risks becoming a significant factor affecting gold prices [1] Group 4 - Changes in gold supply are identified as a crucial variable for future gold price trends, with historical data suggesting that gold supply has previously responded elastically to rising demand [2] - An increase in official sector demand for gold reserves may lead to a further rise in global gold supply [2]

Group 1 - The global official reserve status of gold is increasing, with its share in central bank reserves projected to exceed 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share, making gold the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks are expected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, a significant increase from 10% in the 2010s, with net purchases surpassing 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, setting a historical record [1] - Jewelry and investment consumption still dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] Group 2 - Central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and defaults, with geopolitical factors also playing a significant role in driving central bank investments in gold [1] - The nominal price of gold is projected to rise by about 30% in 2024, exceeding historical highs seen during the 1979 oil crisis, with geopolitical risks becoming a crucial factor influencing gold prices [1] - Future changes in gold supply will be an important variable for price trends, with central bank demand's impact on prices depending on the "stickiness" of gold supply, which has historically responded elastically to rising demand [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has seen significant growth, with ETFs such as the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF rising over 70% year-to-date [1][3] - The sector demonstrated resilience, with a slight decline of less than 1% followed by a recovery, contrasting with broader market declines, as the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index surged by 4% [1] - The year-to-date performance of the top three ETFs in the innovative drug sector includes 71.59% for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF, 71.27% for the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF, and 70.79% for the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF [1][3] Group 2 - The capital inflow into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index was notable, attracting 2.51 billion yuan, while other indices experienced significant outflows [7] - The report indicates that the innovative drug sector's growth is attributed to factors such as low valuations, policy support, and international business development [5][6] - The potential for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF to double in value within a short timeframe is highlighted, assuming a daily growth rate of 3% [5][6]

2025 年 6 月 12 日 股指期货将震荡整理 原油期货将震荡偏强 黄金期货将偏 强震荡 白银、铜、螺纹钢、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3895 和 3906 点，支撑位 3862 和 3850 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2676 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5801 和 5817 点，支撑位 5752 和 5729 点；IM2506 阻力位 61 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices continued to strengthen, with gold-related ETFs showing active performance, such as Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 1.04% and Gold Stock ETF increasing by 1.45% [1] - According to the European Central Bank's latest report, gold has officially surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, with gold accounting for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, compared to the euro's 16% [1] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases at a record pace, with global net purchases exceeding 1000 tons for three consecutive years, doubling the average level of the 2010s [1] Group 2 - The recent U.S. CPI data, which was slightly below expectations, initially boosted gold prices due to revived rate cut expectations, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided significant support for gold prices [2] - The uncertainty in the market is expected to positively impact future gold prices, enhancing profit expectations for gold resource stocks, which are currently valued at low levels [2]

Core Insights - Central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a reserve asset, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally in 2024, following the US dollar [1] - The share of gold in global official reserves is projected to rise to 19% in 2024, while the euro's share will decrease to 16% [1] - Central banks currently account for over 20% of global gold demand, a significant increase from about 10% in the 2010s [1] Group 1: Central Bank Demand - Central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024, but there was a notable slowdown in purchases in the first quarter of 2025, with a 33% decrease compared to the previous quarter [2] - The European Central Bank noted that gold is becoming increasingly attractive to emerging and developing countries [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a reduction in central bank purchases, factors supporting gold prices remain strong, with recommendations for investors to diversify portfolios with gold and hedge funds [4] - The uncertainty in global markets, particularly due to US tariff policies, has increased gold price volatility [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that central banks will continue to allocate a larger portion of their reserves to gold as a hedge against global financial, inflation, and geopolitical risks [5] - Approximately 70% of gold demand still comes from the jewelry and investment sectors, indicating a diverse demand landscape [5] Group 4: Supply Considerations - Historical data suggests that gold supply has been responsive to demand growth, and further increases in official gold reserves may support global gold supply growth [6]

手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 需求疲软主导聚酯市场情绪，原油价格上涨难提振 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 2. 聚酯 06月06日，短纤主力合约收6394.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.66%。华东 市场现货价为6500.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨20.0元/吨，基差为106.0 元/吨。 轻纺城成交量连续下滑，MA15值从831.33万米（5月30日）降至808.93万米 （6月6日），下降约2.7%，表明下游纺织需求疲软。库存端：截至6月5 日，涤纶短纤库存8.4天、涤纶长丝FDY库存21.6天、DTY库存28.4天、POY 库存16.5天。短期产业链偏弱运行，价格承压或持续下行，需求端收缩主 导市场。 1/10 二、产业链价格监测 06月09日，PX 主力合约收0.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为0.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为0.0元/ 吨。 成本端，06月09日，WTI收64.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international gold prices and their impact on domestic gold jewelry consumption, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior towards smaller gold items and increased interest in gold recycling and exchange programs [1][3][5][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On June 10, international gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $3301 per ounce before rebounding to $3332.63 per ounce [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice urging members to enhance risk management due to the unstable market conditions affecting precious metal prices [1]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Despite the fluctuations in gold prices, consumer interest in gold jewelry remains, with daily transactions still reaching dozens, and peaking at over a hundred on weekends [3]. - Consumers are increasingly favoring smaller weight gold products to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, as well as preferring traditional gold, enamel, and intricately carved items [5]. Group 3: Gold Recycling and Exchange - The "exchange old for new" and gold recycling businesses are gaining traction, with many consumers opting to trade in older gold items for new ones or cashing out at high prices [7]. - Some jewelry stores are offering free gold testing services to facilitate the exchange process, leading to a significant increase in exchange business volume, reportedly by over 30% to 50% [9]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of May, China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2296.37 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [11]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 69% of central banks expect the share of gold in global reserves to rise over the next five years, contrasting with a declining expectation for the share of U.S. dollar reserves [11].

"今年5月，美元指数先涨后跌，全月基本收平，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。"中国社会科学院研究生院特聘导师柏文喜表示，汇率和资产价格变动对中国 外汇储备的估值效应几乎正负相抵，但综合来看，仍使外汇储备规模有所上升。 柏文喜认为，外汇储备规模的稳定增长，向国际社会展示了我国经济的稳健性和抵御外部风险的能力，有助于增强国际投资者对我国经济的信心，提升我国 在国际金融领域的信誉和影响力。 图为消费者在北京一商场内的金店柜台选购金饰。（图片由CNSPHOTO提供） 中国商报（记者 马文博）国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2025年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末增加36亿美元，增幅为0.11%。 国家外汇管理局相关负责人表示，今年5月，受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策和经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格涨跌互 现。受汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济持续回升向好，经济发展质量稳步提升，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定 提供了支撑。 柏文喜认为，黄金作为避险资产和最后国际清偿能力的资产，在国际货币体系多极化加速的背景下，其作用仍有进一步提升空间，增持黄金 ...

从汇率折算因素来看，美元汇率的波动对外汇储备规模产生了影响。5月，美元指数出现一定程度的下跌，而非美元货币相对美元升值。5月美元指数由4月 底的99.64下行0.20%至 99.43，英镑兑美元升值0.92%至1.345，欧元兑美元升值0.2%至1.13。我国外汇储备中包含了一定比例的非美元货币资产，当这些非美 元货币兑换成美元时，由于汇率的变化，其价值相应增加，从而推动了外汇储备规模的上升。 资产价格变化也是重要原因之一。全球金融市场在5月出现了一定的波动，但整体上，债券、股票等资产价格有所上涨。我国外汇储备投资于多种资产，资 产价格的上涨使得外汇储备的账面价值增加，进而导致外汇储备规模上升。 浙商证券分析师测算：资产价格对本月储备是负向拖累，主要国家国债利率全面上行，5月末5年期美债收益率较4月末上行24BP至3.96%，5年期英债收益率 上升24BP至4.05%，5 年期德债收益率上升7BP至2.08%，债券收益率波动对外储的综合影响约-231.79亿美元。 近日，国家外汇管理局最新发布的统计数据显示，截至5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元，升幅为0.11%。 业内人士指 ...