Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are increasingly anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the policy meeting scheduled for September 16-17, with the probability reaching 89.7% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1][2]. Inflation Analysis - The core PCE price index, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, remains above the 2% target, supporting the argument against a rate cut in September and potentially throughout the year [2][3]. - Tariffs complicate inflation calculations, with estimates suggesting that if tariffs are fully passed on to consumers, prices may have recently increased by 0.6%. However, the short-term likelihood of full pass-through is low [3]. Employment Market Status - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained stable at 4.2%, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating the natural unemployment rate at 4.3%. This indicates a healthy labor market, insufficient to justify a loosening of monetary policy [4]. - Despite media attention on layoffs, the number of unemployment insurance claims remains unusually low, suggesting a stable employment environment [4]. Economic Forecasts - Most economists predict a rise in the unemployment rate, with a survey indicating it may reach 4.5% by mid-2026. A modest rate cut could be appropriate, especially if it is part of a series of cuts rather than a single adjustment [5]. Federal Reserve's Focus on Inflation - The Federal Reserve's emphasis on inflation is rooted in the belief that low and stable inflation leads to low and stable unemployment rates. This long-term perspective may lead to opposition against rate cuts during the September meeting [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for September 2025, including employment data and manufacturing indices in the US and China [1][2] - Key dates include the US non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's economic conditions report, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The article highlights the importance of consumer confidence indices in both the Eurozone and the US, which are expected to influence market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The article mentions the release of China's August trade balance and M2 money supply data, which are significant for understanding the country's economic performance [1] - It also notes upcoming monetary policy decisions from major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, which could impact global financial markets [1][2] - The article outlines the importance of oil inventory data in the context of energy markets, particularly in relation to US crude oil production [2]

Core Point - The adjusted unemployment rate in Germany for August is reported at 6.3% [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate indicates the current labor market conditions in Germany, reflecting economic stability or challenges [1]

Group 1 - National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference on August 29 [1] - Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a press conference regarding the overall arrangements for the 2025 Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2] - A total of 12.47 billion shares will be unlocked today, with a total market value of 13.171 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - 39 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 21 companies announcing new repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase plan amounts are from Daqin Railway, Shengtun Mining, and Spring Airlines, with proposed repurchase amounts of 1.5 billion yuan, 600 million yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively [4] - 361.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today [5] Group 3 - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year and Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate [6]

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, indicating employers are retaining existing employees despite economic uncertainty [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 228,500, suggesting a trend of stability in the labor market [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.3% in August, up from 4.2% in July, reflecting a weak hiring environment [2] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a "no hiring, no firing" situation due to protectionist trade policies, with average import tariffs at a century-high [2] - Average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 jobs expected for the same period in 2024 [2] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 7,000 to 1.954 million, indicating a slight improvement in hiring conditions [2] Group 3 - Consumer sentiment regarding job availability has worsened, with the percentage of consumers believing jobs are hard to find reaching a four-and-a-half-year high [3] - The stability of the unemployment rate is attributed to low levels of layoffs, while a slowdown in labor force growth may mask underlying issues in the labor market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting in September is considered "live," indicating potential for action based on real-time economic conditions [1] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the balance of risks between employment and inflation has shifted, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance [1] - Williams emphasized that current interest rates are at a "moderately tight" level, indicating that even if a rate cut occurs, monetary policy will still retain some degree of tightness in the short term [1] Group 2 - Following the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump, there is increasing political pressure on Federal Reserve officials, with accusations of mortgage fraud being levied against Cook [2] - Williams refrained from commenting specifically on the Cook incident but underscored the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, which has proven to be extremely valuable globally [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference signals a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in response to rising unemployment risks and economic recession concerns [1][3][4] - Powell highlighted the current focus on the labor market rather than inflation, indicating that the Fed may prioritize easing monetary policy to address potential job losses, as evidenced by the July non-farm payroll data [1][2] - The market reacted positively to Powell's speech, with a notable rise in U.S. stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, suggesting increasing expectations for an interest rate cut [3] Group 2 - Powell's reference to the Fed's long-term goal of achieving a 2% average inflation target indicates a willingness to tolerate inflation above this level for a period, contrasting with previous commitments to strictly maintain the 2% target [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll and inflation data releases on September 5 and 11 are expected to be critical in determining the timing of any interest rate cuts, with a high probability of a shift towards a more lenient monetary policy [3] - The current economic environment presents significant challenges for Powell, akin to those faced by past Fed chairs, as he navigates the complexities of monetary policy amid external pressures and economic uncertainties [4]

Economic Performance - The ICHI Composite Economic Index shows continued expansion, indicating a strengthening economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has significantly risen, returning to the expansion zone and reaching a new high in nearly a month[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, supported by consumption policies[2] Investment and Production - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries seeing investment growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - The Production Index has improved significantly, with capacity utilization rates rising, contributing to economic growth[1] - Exports increased by 7.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience in external trade despite a global slowdown[2] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate in July remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the previous year[2] - In the UK, July CPI rose by 3.8%, the fastest increase in 18 months, driven by higher prices in travel and fuel[6] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising to 235,000, the highest since June[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the balance of risks facing the US economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the job market as both supply and demand are slowing [3] - The report highlights that the probability of a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with market expectations rising from 75% to 90% following Powell's speech [3] - The future path of interest rate cuts remains dependent on economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and consumption trends [3] Group 2 - The report anticipates that inflation may rebound in August, and a decrease in immigrant labor could offset the impact of slowing labor demand on the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low [3] - If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate in August, the Federal Reserve may opt for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation rises more, the Fed may delay until October [3] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December and that there is significant uncertainty regarding the timing of future cuts next year, influenced by both economic dynamics and the White House's pressure on the Fed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].