Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

关税担忧情绪浓厚，投资者加大看空押注，美债30年期收益率突破5%。 隔夜公布的美国6月CPI数据显示，尽管核心CPI涨幅低于预期，但企业开始将部分关税成本转嫁给消费 者，这未能缓解市场对关税推高物价的担忧，投资者削减了对美联储9月降息的预期，美国长期国债遭 遇抛售潮。 交易员大幅增加看空押注，押注30年期美债收益率将在约五周内跳升至5.3%左右，相关期权的总权利 金已达1000万美元。 期权市场释放看空信号，市政债券同样承压 期权市场的动态进一步印证了投资者的悲观情绪。 根据商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据，投资者对冲收益率上行和长期债券进一步抛售的需求激 增，相关期权权利金已经达到一个月来最高水平。 大额期权交易显示，投资者正为30年期国债收益率升至5.3%左右做准备，这一水平将创下2007年以来 的新高，反映出市场对长期利率走势的深度担忧。 周二，30年期美债收益率升破5%，创下自6月初以来新高。标志着长端利率重新回到今年高位区间。 此外，30年期美债的偏斜指标（低执行价格期权的隐含波动率高于高执行价的隐含波动率）在过去一周 内急剧转向看跌期权溢价。 除了美国国债，周二，美国市政债券市场也遭到严重冲击 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美国6月通胀基本延续"岁月静好"的状态，核心CPI环比增速 连续第五个月低于预期，主因租金通胀和二手车价格降温。本次偏软的核心通胀不能验证"关税对通胀 影响轻微"的猜想，事实上中信证券构建的"进口含量高的CPI"等追踪指标显示关税已初步影响到美国进 口敏感型终端消费品价格。中信证券依旧认为美国通胀存在反弹隐忧，美联储7月降息的可能性小、年 内最多降息两次，美元持续走弱的空间或较有限，美债目前的配置吸引力可能仍不太强。 中信证券具体观点如下： 美国6月总体CPI环比如期升0.3%，核心CPI环比升0.3%（低于预期的0.2%），总体CPI同比升2.7%（高 于预期的2.6%），核心CPI同比如期升2.9%。四个读数都高于前值，核心CPI环比是连续第五个月低于 预期。 本次偏软的核心通胀是件好事，但不必太为此感到高兴，其可持续性存疑。 中信证券测算如果特朗普截至7月12日的"信函关税威胁"成真，假设USMCA豁免继续适用，则美国总体 有效关税税率将从目前约13.3%的水平进一步升至约16.9%，这将抬升美国PCE平减指数约1.1%、并在 长期降低美国GDP规模0.4%。中信 ...

智通财经7月16日电，中信证券研报指出，美国6月通胀基本延续"岁月静好"的状态，核心CPI环比增速 连续第五个月低于预期，主因租金通胀和二手车价格降温。本次偏软的核心通胀不能验证"关税对通胀 影响轻微"的猜想，事实上我们构建的"进口含量高的CPI"等追踪指标显示关税已初步影响到美国进口敏 感型终端消费品价格。我们依旧认为美国通胀存在反弹隐忧，美联储7月降息的可能性小、年内最多降 息两次，美元持续走弱的空间或较有限，美债目前的配置吸引力可能仍不太强。 中信证券：美联储7月降息的可能性小 年内最多降息两次 ...

张尧浠：美CPI打压月内降息前景、金价回落仍是看涨机会 展望今日周三(7月16日)：国际黄金开盘受到昨日尾盘触底回升和及60日均线支撑的买盘力量而先行走强，但主图上方也面临众多均线压力，美元指数也保 持近期的反弹趋势走强，而会限制金价多头。 上交易日周二(7月15日)：国际黄金先涨后跌，回落收阴，收线至中轨线下方，并再度回踩60日均线支撑位置，空头力量有所加大，后市如不能重回中轨线 之上，则面临继续回撤触及布林带下轨或100日均线支撑位置。但整体趋势依然保持上行，故此如有进一步走低，布林带下轨或100日均线支撑也是先行看涨 反弹的位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3344.03美元/盎司，受到支撑买盘的推动，先行走强，于欧盘时段录得日内高点3366.37美元； 之后美盘开盘，空头力量加大，美国6月整体CPI小幅反弹，高于前值，减弱本月降息前景，打压金价回落走低，再加上美财长称中美谈判"态势良好"，利空 金价连续走低，于次日0点时段录得日内低点3320.12美元，最后有所触底回升，并窄幅盘整，最终收于3324.74美元，日振幅46.25美元，收跌19.29美元，跌 幅0.58%。 美元指数日图及周图走势转强，短 ...

华泰证券：维持联储9月和12月两次降息的判断 金十数据7月16日讯，华泰证券表示，往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市 场后续或有所放缓，我们维持联储9月和12月两次降息的判断。6月CPI数据显示进口依赖度高的商品通 胀已经有所回升， 证伪了海外出口商降价，关税不传导的说法。考虑到5月美国加权进口关税税率仅为 8.7%，且部分企业通过消耗库存推迟了价格的传导，往前看，我们预计关税对通胀的传导将进一步显 现，短期或推高美国通胀。纽约联储的调查也佐证，88%的制造业企业以及82%服务业企业选择在3个 月内将关税传导至消费者。6月联储FOMC记者会上，鲍威尔表态称，联储需要在暑期观察关税影响， 通胀的回升或已在联储的预期之内。 ...

美联储洛根：如果美联储判断失误，未能及时降息，之后可能会进一步降息以推动就业回归正常水平。 ...

美国总统特朗普：美联储应降息。 ...

我在前文《》提到，川普给鲍威尔施压，为了尽快督促美联储降息，已经让白宫给美联储上强度了。 显然，美联储没有怂，鲍威尔目前也不准备TACO，今夜刚刚公布的通胀数据进一步印证了美联储7月份即将按兵不动。 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%为2月以来最高纪录，略超过预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主 要受能源价格上涨影响。 值得注意的是，核心CPI环比增幅确实符合美联储的目标，这对政策制定者来说是个好消息，但不足以支撑7月降息。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新撰文称："6月的通胀数据可能会让美联储官员继续保持谨慎，那些曾预测关税将在今年晚些时候引发更显著价格压力的 政策制定者，在看到6月的数据后，可能不会有太多理由改变这一观点——尤其是如果零售商尽可能推迟调整价格的话。6月的数据只会让即将公布的7月 和8月数据显得更加重要。 据CME"美联储观察"：CPI数据公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为38.6%， 累计降息25个基点的概率为59.9%，累计降息50个基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.25%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.52%. It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of gold being weaker than silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The core logic is that in the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the strategy of both gold and silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war in a new stage, economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases, and strong employment suppresses interest rate cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump escalated the trade war. Regarding the monetary attribute, Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects, and strong employment data has reduced the possibility of near - term interest rate cuts. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3352.10 per ounce, down $18.20 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $5.70 (0.17%) from last week. London gold was at $3351.15 per ounce, down $0.95 (-0.03%) from the previous day and up $35.80 (1.08%) from last week. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 780.40 yuan per gram, down 1.00 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous day and up 4.18 yuan (0.54%) from last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 100,900.00, an increase of 4,837.00 (24.93%); the top 10 totaled 129,456.00, an increase of 4,908.00 (31.98%); the top 20 totaled 153,715.00, an increase of 7,135.00 (37.98%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,011.00, a decrease of 69.00 (2.97%); the top 10 totaled 17,864.00, an increase of 73.00 (4.41%); the top 20 totaled 21,371.00, an increase of 1,011.00 (5.28%) [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [5]. - **Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down $0.67 (-1.70%) from the previous day and up $1.47 (3.98%) from last week. London silver was at $39.00 per ounce, up $1.50 (3.99%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (7.59%) from last week. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 9225.00 yuan per kilogram, up 18.00 yuan (0.20%) from the previous day and up 272.00 yuan (3.04%) from last week [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 128,440.00, an increase of 2,145.00 (12.81%); the top 10 totaled 184,237.00, an increase of 295.00 (18.38%); the top 20 totaled 240,513.00, an increase of 1,291.00 (23.99%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 55,412.00, a decrease of 157.00 (5.53%); the top 10 totaled 86,681.00, a decrease of 1,753.00 (8.65%); the top 20 totaled 108,867.00, a decrease of 183.00 (10.86%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%. The Fed's total assets are $67132.36 billion. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 0.06 (2.37%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.78%) from last week. The US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.25 (0.26%) from the previous day and up 0.57 (0.58%) from last week [8]. - **Other Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, the core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%. The unemployment rate is 4.10%. The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, up 70.59 (137.10%) from the previous day and down 22.80 (-15.74%) from last week. The VIX index is 16.84, down 0.36 (-2.09%) from the previous day and up 0.03 (0.18%) from last week [10][11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate in different periods from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest rate [12].