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期铜上涨,因担忧近期供应紧张【4月29日LME收盘】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 00:36
Group 1 - London copper prices increased due to concerns over recent supply tightness, with three-month copper rising by $62 to $9,440 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $31.50 to $2,465.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw increases of $16 and $10 respectively [2] - Nickel and tin prices, however, decreased, with nickel falling by $65 to $15,550 per ton and tin down by $102 to $31,919 per ton [2] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories increased by 40% this month amid investigations into potential new copper import tariffs by Washington, with a significant premium of $1,443 per ton over LME copper [3] - The global copper market is expected to see a surplus increase from 138,000 tons last year to 289,000 tons this year, with continued oversupply projected for next year [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $162 billion in March, indicating a significant drag on first-quarter GDP growth, estimated to be as much as 1.9 percentage points [3]
中金:关税之后是规模经济之争
中金点睛· 2025-04-30 00:12
美国政府加征关税有两大目标,降低贸易逆差和促进美国再工业化,前者主要是经济层面的保护主义,后者更具有地缘竞争的特征,主要是针对中国 作为全球制造业体系中心的地位。两个目标相互联系,关键变量是规模,美国对一个小型经济体的贸易逆差不具有系统重要性。由此分析美国关税作 用的机制和影响需要重视规模经济的角色。美国的贸易逆差反映了其低储蓄率,后者有美元国际货币地位和美国大型科技企业全球收租的作用,国际 货币和数字经济有规模经济效应,但其垄断属性使得相关的收益更多由美国获取,包括负债成本低和资产高估值带来的财富效应,提高了消费率,贸 易逆差是结果的体现。另一方面,制造业也具有规模经济效应,但是充分竞争的行业,创新带来的垄断超额收益难以持久,中国的大制造业体系产生 的规模效应由所有经济体更平衡享受,体现为中国的实体资源对外转移(出口量大幅上升),结合内部社会保障体系不完善等结构性因素导致的需求 不足,形成宏观层面的贸易顺差。 美国关税可能对上述的两个规模经济模式带来重大冲击。近期美国市场出现罕见的"股债汇三杀"现象,反映了投资者对关税引发的国际经贸摩擦冲击 美元地位和科技巨头在一些领域的垄断地位的担忧。对全球经济来讲,关税 ...
道指、标普500指数六连涨,特斯拉市值一夜增加超1400亿元!特朗普政府对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击,发生了什么?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-04-29 22:09
Snap一季度营收13.6亿美元,分析师预期13.5亿美元。一季度日活用户数4.6亿,分析师预期4.5911亿。美股盘后,Snap跌超12%。 | Snap | | | | --- | --- | --- | | SNAP US 空 | | | | 国际 9.230 昨收 8.830 量比 9.105 低 8.825 市值 154.45亿 换 | | 2.80 9.29% | | 0.275 3.11% | | | | 开 8.830 市盈™ 亏损 额 | | 8.96 Z | | 盘后 7.970 - - 1.135 - - 12.47% ⊙ 17:25 美东时间 | | | | 盘后 × | | | | 时间05:25 最新:7.970 涨幅:-12.466% | | | | 10.590 | +16.31% 盘后最新 | | | 7.970 | | | | -1.135 -12.47% | | | | 最 高 | | 9890 | 每经编辑 杜宇 当地时间4月29日,美股三大指数集体收涨,道指涨0.72%,标普500指数涨0.58%,纳指涨0.55%。其中,道指、标普500指数均录得日线六连涨。 大型科 ...
创纪录!美国3月贸易逆差激增至1620亿美元
第一财经· 2025-04-29 14:05
当地时间4月29日,央视记者获悉,美国人口普查局当日发布的初步贸易数据显示,美国贸易逆差3月激增140亿美元, 达到创纪录的1620亿美元。 据悉,贸易逆差激增的原因是企业纷纷在特朗普政府推出一系列"对等"关税前囤积物资。 ...
美国3月商品贸易逆差创历史记录,远超预期
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-29 13:39
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. trade deficit in goods surged to a record high of $162 billion in March, driven by a significant increase in imports as companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of anticipated tariffs, indicating a substantial drag on economic growth for the first quarter [1][5][9]. Group 1: Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - The trade deficit increased by 9.6% from the previous month, reaching $162 billion, which is the highest on record [1][5]. - The record trade deficit is expected to contribute to a minimal GDP growth of only 0.4% for the first quarter, marking the slowest growth rate in nearly three years [9]. - Analysts predict that the surge in imports may lead to further downward revisions of GDP forecasts following the latest trade deficit data [9]. Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - In March, U.S. goods exports rose by 1.2% to $180.8 billion, but this growth was significantly outpaced by the surge in imports [3][12]. - Imports increased by 5% to $342.7 billion, primarily driven by consumer goods, as companies sought to import ahead of the implementation of tariffs [6][7]. - Consumer goods imports saw a notable increase of 27.5%, alongside rises in automotive and capital goods imports [7]. Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - Retail inventories decreased by 0.1%, while wholesale inventories increased by 0.5%, indicating mixed inventory trends [12]. - If high tariffs remain in place, the demand for foreign goods in the U.S. may decline, potentially leading to a significant reduction in the trade deficit in the coming months [12].
美国经济繁荣的“秘密武器”正被特朗普亲手摧毁!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-28 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that misconceptions about trade deficits are shaping U.S. economic policy, particularly under Trump's administration, which could threaten U.S. prosperity and the international order [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Deficits and Economic Impact - The U.S. accumulated a current account deficit of $14.4 trillion from 2000 to 2024, which appears unsustainable, yet the net financial income only decreased by $190 billion during the same period, indicating a hidden strength in U.S. value creation through intangible assets [2][3]. - In 2024, the U.S. goods trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion, but a services trade surplus of $295 billion and significant sales from U.S. subsidiaries abroad (totaling $2.1 trillion) nearly offset this deficit, resulting in a net services surplus of $895 billion [2][3]. Group 2: Intangible Assets and Economic Structure - The actual amount "borrowed" by the U.S. is estimated at $28 trillion, with half used for domestic consumption and the other half for foreign direct investment, highlighting the unique way U.S. companies leverage capital with intangible assets to achieve higher returns [3][4]. - The concept of "dark matter," introduced by the author, refers to the unquantifiable value of knowledge assets that traditional statistics fail to capture, which has allowed the U.S. to maintain trade deficits without facing typical economic repercussions [3][4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Consequences - Trump's trade policies threaten the established global trade and investment principles, which could lead to reduced intellectual property protections and increased taxation on U.S. tech, pharmaceutical, and entertainment sectors, potentially depleting the income that offsets the current account deficit [4]. - The shift towards a more closed U.S. economy could undermine its historical role as a magnet for talent and innovation, leading to strategic isolation and a loss of influence in global affairs [4].
打脸自家媒体还是掩盖真相?日本紧急辟谣:美财长没说要“强日元”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-28 06:31
Group 1 - The Japanese top currency diplomat denied a media report claiming that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin preferred a weak dollar and a strong yen during a bilateral meeting [1] - Japanese Finance Minister Aso and Mnuchin had their first face-to-face meeting during the IMF and World Bank meetings, with no discussion on exchange rate targets [1][2] - The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the Japanese government is considering increasing imports of U.S. rice and soybeans as potential leverage in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - Finance Minister Aso also denied the Yomiuri Shimbun report on social media, reiterating that there were no discussions on exchange rate targets or frameworks for managing the yen's value [2] - U.S. President Trump is focused on addressing the U.S. trade deficit and has previously accused Japan of intentionally maintaining a weak yen, which has led to market expectations that Tokyo may face pressure to strengthen the yen against the dollar [2] - Mnuchin described the meeting with Aso as "very constructive" and mentioned discussions related to exchange rate matters [2]
特朗普到底想要什么?一文带你读懂美国关税战背后的逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's tariff strategy is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of trade deficits and the decline of American manufacturing, which are rooted in structural problems related to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Deficits - Trump's perception of trade deficits as a loss is criticized as a flawed logic, equating it to a one-sided transaction [1][3]. - The trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's unique position as the global reserve currency, leading to high demand and appreciation of the dollar, which in turn raises production costs in the U.S. [3][6]. - The U.S. has a long-standing reliance on imports due to high domestic production costs, resulting in a growing trade deficit [8][11]. Group 2: Manufacturing Challenges - The high cost of labor in the U.S. due to the dollar's strength makes domestic manufacturing less competitive compared to imports [3][8]. - Trump's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs is deemed impractical, as it does not address the fundamental cost issues associated with U.S. production [9][10]. Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $34.5 trillion, with annual interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge [16][18]. - The increasing reliance on short-term debt due to high interest rates poses additional risks, with a substantial amount of debt maturing soon [19][20]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - While tariffs could generate significant revenue (estimated at over $800 billion from a 20% tariff on $4.11 trillion in imports), they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying economic issues [23][24]. - The tariffs may serve as a negotiating tool to encourage other countries to lower their tariffs on U.S. products, potentially alleviating some trade imbalances [26][32]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The article suggests that Trump's tariffs are partly aimed at forcing countries to choose sides in the global economic landscape, particularly against China, which has become a significant competitor in manufacturing [34][38]. - The potential for increased prices and inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs could undermine the country's global credibility and economic stability [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article concludes that regardless of the effectiveness of Trump's policies, the U.S. may face a period of economic hardship, necessitating resilience and adaptability from both the U.S. and its trading partners [40][41].
国际新闻小课堂丨央视新闻“超市经济学”告诉你 加关税降逆差为啥走不通
在这里我们用啤酒作比: 这家美国"小超市"经营着两类商品 美元特权:经济危机→美元↑→逆差↑ 同时,美元所具有的特权,在遭遇经济危机时,避险资本又涌向美元 推高美元,扩大逆差。 但是这留给了我们两个疑问: 问题1 美元升值为何导致逆差扩大? 为什么美元升值 这直觉下认为有利美国的情况 反而无益于减小逆差? 问题2 美元特权还能持久吗? 希腊前财长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯说的 "美元特权"具体表现在哪里 它又还能持续多久? 央视新闻 "超市经济学" 现在为大家拆解其中原因 ↓↓↓ 国际新闻小课堂 "超市经济学" 我们首先将美国这个国家 看作一家"小超市" 美国=小超市 推高美元,扩大逆差; 加之特朗普对大企业和富豪们的减税措施,进一步促使外资流入美国 对企业减税→外资↑→美元↑→逆差↑ 2 美元升值,扩大逆差; 央视新闻国际新闻小课堂为大家进行类比拆解,用一家美国"小超市"的经营经历告诉你,为啥加关税降低贸易逆差根本走不通。 在反对特朗普加关税降逆差的声浪中,经济学家出身的希腊前财长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯最有代表性。 近期,特朗普政府的关税"大棒"引发美国各界强烈反对以及金融市场大幅动荡。 按特朗普本人的说法,他加关税是 ...
美国对日谈判最优先削减贸易逆差
日经中文网· 2025-04-25 04:27
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that there is no intention to seek specific currency targets in the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, indicating a lower likelihood of foreign exchange intervention through currency agreements. However, the approach to correct the appreciation of the U.S. dollar remains unchanged, with a focus on addressing trade imbalances and reducing trade deficits [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Tariff Negotiations - The U.S. has expressed a clear stance on viewing trade imbalances as a problem and prioritizing the reduction of trade deficits in the ongoing tariff negotiations with Japan [1][2]. - Becerra emphasized that the U.S. will not set specific currency targets or force a depreciation of the dollar or appreciation of the yen, aligning with the G7 agreement against competitive currency devaluation [2][3]. - The negotiations are expected to be challenging, with Japan seeking exemptions from the 25% tariffs on automobiles, which the U.S. has indicated are tied to national security concerns and thus not open for negotiation [3]. Group 2: International Financial System - Becerra expressed a desire to reform the international financial system, aiming to restore and maintain economic balance, referencing the Bretton Woods system established post-World War II [3][4]. - The U.S. aims to reclaim a strong leadership role in international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, which have been criticized for not aligning with Western values amid China's growing influence [5]. - The U.S. administration believes that the expanding trade deficit reflects a decline in American manufacturing, which is unsustainable, and seeks a path toward sustainable development rather than unilateral gains [5].