Inflation Data Summary - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year changed from a 0.1% increase to flat, outperforming the Wind consensus expectation of -0.12%[2] - The food price index saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, while non-food prices increased by 0.3%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.4%, slightly above the ten-year average increase of 0.34%[2] Food Price Dynamics - The year-on-year decline in fresh vegetable prices expanded to 7.6%, significantly impacting the CPI[2] - Pork prices saw a year-on-year decline of 9.5%, while beef prices increased by 3.6%[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables continued to decline year-on-year in early August 2025[2] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with durable goods prices rising due to the end of promotional activities[3] - Transportation fuel prices decreased by 9% year-on-year, influenced by international oil price fluctuations[3] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[3] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, with production materials down 4.3% and living materials down 1.6%[4] - The PPI month-on-month decreased by 0.2%, with production materials showing a smaller decline than living materials[4] - The price of oil and gas extraction increased by 3.0%, while electronic equipment manufacturing prices fell by 0.4%[4] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with food CPI likely to continue its downward trend due to high base effects from the previous year[5] - PPI may show a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected fluctuations in international commodity prices[5]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月通胀数据，CPI同比0%、前值0.1%、预期-0.1%、环比0.4%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.6%、预期-3.4%、环比-0.2%。 核心观点：统计时点及中下游产能利用率偏低是PPI表现偏弱的两条"暗线"。 7月PPI继续磨底，大宗价格对PPI环比拉动虽转正，但统计上未囊括下旬的涨价情况，因而中上游PPI表 现不及高频数据。 PPI为每月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于下旬，因此 本月PPI（环比-0.2%）不及预期。高频数据也与PPI走势分化，7月煤、钢价格回升，而煤炭采选 （-1.5%）、黑色压延（-0.3%）环比仍为负。相比之下，油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献为正， 测算大宗商品 价格拉动PPI环比0.1%。 同时中下游价格对PPI拖累仍较大，也令7月PPI表现低于市场预期。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同 的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上游涨价向下游传导受阻。如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格 理论传导幅度；机械设备、消费下游亦有类似特征， 测算7月中下游拖累PPI环比-0 ...

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stagnation of CPI and PPI in July, highlighting the need for effective investment to stimulate economic growth and address supply-demand imbalances [1][5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In July, the CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, which was higher than the expected -0.1%, while the PPI remained at -3.6%, lower than the anticipated -3.4% [1][6]. - The simulated deflation index, calculated using PPI and CPI, was -1.44%, slightly lower than the previous two months' -1.38%, marking the lowest since February 2024 [1][6]. - The decline in price levels since the fourth quarter of last year is attributed to insufficient local fixed asset investment affecting the supply-demand ratio [1][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The PPI's underperformance in July was influenced by high-frequency data discrepancies, particularly in the black metallurgy, automotive, and electrical machinery sectors [2][9]. - Despite rising prices in raw materials for black metal smelting and automotive manufacturing, the final PPI figures showed a decrease of 0.3% in both sectors [2][9]. - Prices for lithium carbonate and polysilicon saw significant increases in July, impacting the photovoltaic industry positively, although the electrical machinery sector still faced a PPI decline of -0.2% [2][10][11]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to August, the PPI decline is expected to narrow to below 3%, with the simulated deflation index likely to bottom out and rise [3][12]. - Initial data for August indicates a neutral trend in industrial prices, with significant increases in domestic coal and coke prices compared to the end of July [3][12]. - The stability of automotive retail and wholesale prices will be crucial to monitor in the coming weeks [3][12]. Group 4: CPI Positive Signals - Positive signals in July were primarily observed in the CPI sector, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.8% [4][13]. - Notable price stability was seen in automotive retail, with both fuel and new energy vehicle prices stabilizing after a prolonged decline [4][13]. - Household appliances showed a significant month-on-month increase of 2.2%, driven by rising raw material costs, indicating a potential positive trend in consumer spending [4][14]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in achieving a favorable overall price level, necessitating continued policy efforts [5][16]. - Recent government meetings have focused on regulating competition in key industries, including the new energy vehicle sector and the pig farming industry, which may influence future price dynamics [5][16].

Inflation Overview - July CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0.0%, better than the market expectation of -0.1% and consistent with prior predictions[1] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, compared to a previous value of -0.1%, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - July PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -3.6%, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of -3.4%[1] CPI Components - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, impacting CPI by approximately -0.29 percentage points[5] PPI Insights - PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.2% was influenced by seasonal factors, including high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction demand[7] - Prices in the non-metallic mineral products sector fell by 1.4%, while coal mining prices decreased by 1.5%[7] - The prices of high-tech products, such as aircraft manufacturing, rose by 3.0%, indicating a shift towards high-end industrial development[9] Market Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in equities and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations[1] - A-shares are anticipated to experience a structural rally characterized by alternating low-volatility dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, while year-on-year it remained flat; the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decrease for the first time since March, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6% [1] Healthcare Standards - The National Medical Insurance Administration has released the first national standard in the healthcare sector, titled "Technical Specifications for Convenient Services of Medical Insurance Information Platform," which will be implemented on January 1, 2026, marking a significant milestone in the standardization of medical insurance in China [2] Robotics Industry - The global robotics industry experienced explosive growth in the first half of the year, with domestic manufacturers seeing average growth rates between 50% and 100%, a rare occurrence in the industry’s history [3] - The CEO of Yushutech emphasized that while current hardware is not perfect, it is sufficient for present needs, with future improvements focused on reducing costs and enhancing reliability [3] Trade and Tariffs - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has surged to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year, marking the highest level since 1933 [3][4] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing the negative impact of recent tariff adjustments on global trade prospects [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has shown effects, contributing to the improvement of the PPI month-on-month in July, addressing the core issue of low-price competition caused by supply-demand imbalance [1][3]. Group 1: PPI Data and Trends - In July, the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first month-on-month narrowing since March this year [2]. - Key industries such as coal mining, black metal smelting, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw a reduction in price decline, contributing less to the PPI drop [2]. - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with the PPI growth rate remaining in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [3]. Group 2: Impact of Policies - The "anti-involution" policies are believed to have driven the price recovery in cyclical industries, as indicated by the price trends in futures markets for coal, steel, and cement [2][3]. - The central government's emphasis on promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition order is expected to continue influencing PPI trends positively [3][4]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are likely to favor leading enterprises, while the exit of outdated and excess capacities may cause short-term market pain [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Continuous observation is needed to assess the extent of PPI improvement and whether the year-on-year growth rate can turn positive, as the balance of supply and demand requires time to correct [4]. - The need for effective counter-cyclical policies to stimulate domestic demand is highlighted as crucial for sustaining the effects of the "anti-involution" policies and alleviating competitive pressures among enterprises [5].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points, indicating positive changes in consumer prices [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by the peak travel season with significant price hikes in airfare (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), and hotel accommodation (6.9%) [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, reflecting a stable demand environment [9] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Developments - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [10][11] - The improvement in PPI was attributed to enhanced market competition and supply-demand relationships in various industries, particularly in coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, which saw reduced price declines [13] - Positive price changes in industrial products were noted, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased demand for upgraded consumer goods, with notable price recoveries in aircraft manufacturing and wearable technology [15]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while year-on-year it remained flat [2][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and continuing a trend of expansion for three consecutive months [2][6] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with notable price hikes in airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rentals [2][4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while year-on-year it fell by 3.6% [6][8] - The construction of a unified national market is improving market competition in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries, leading to positive price changes in these sectors [6][8] Group 3: Agricultural Products Price Trends - In July, the wholesale price of pork increased by 1.3% month-on-month, influenced by tight supply due to low market release from farmers, although prices later stabilized as supply improved [8][10] - The average wholesale price of pork in Beijing was reported at 18.16 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.18% [12] - The wholesale price of eggs decreased by 1.8% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year, attributed to increased supply and weak demand, although prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand factors [15][17]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][3][4] - The year-on-year stability of the CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6% compared to the same month last year. Fresh vegetable prices fell by 7.6%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% [3][4] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up by 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up by 0.5% [4][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline consistent with June's figures. However, the month-on-month decline of 0.2% showed a narrowing compared to June [5][6] - Certain industries experienced improved supply-demand relationships, leading to positive price changes. For instance, the price of caustic soda rose by 3.6%, and the price of glass manufacturing saw a reduced decline of 0.9% compared to June [6][7] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors, with prices in the coal mining and washing industry, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showing reduced declines compared to the previous month [7][6] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by effective policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which will stimulate consumption and push up consumer goods prices [8] - The holiday effect is anticipated to stabilize or increase service prices, while the downward pressure from tailing factors on both CPI and PPI is expected to diminish [8]