Core Insights - The report highlights steady growth in urban and rural residents' disposable income in Sichuan province, with urban residents earning an average of 37,338 yuan and rural residents earning 16,741 yuan, reflecting nominal growth rates of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively [2][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan has shown a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by various factors including slow domestic consumption recovery and price competition in certain industries [3][4] - The report indicates a structural decline in prices, with service prices rising by 0.3% while consumer goods prices fell by 0.8%, highlighting a shift in consumer spending patterns [4][5] Income and Consumption - The average disposable income for residents in Sichuan reached 27,046 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.3% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.7% after adjusting for inflation [7] - Urban residents' average consumption expenditure was 23,690 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents' expenditure was 13,902 yuan, with a higher growth rate of 5.6% [7] - The share of service consumption in total spending has increased, with per capita service expenditure rising to 8,608 yuan, a growth of 6.1% [6][7] Price Trends - The report notes that prices for eight categories of goods and services experienced five increases and three decreases, with healthcare prices rising by 0.6% and food prices declining by 1.0% [2][4] - The core CPI in Sichuan showed a positive trend, increasing by 0.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in September reaching a high of 0.6% [5] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) decreased by 2.8%, but there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, particularly in high-tech industries, which have seen price increases [5][6] Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes that rural consumption growth outpaced urban consumption, indicating a significant potential in rural markets [7] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to various government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including policies for replacing old consumer goods [6][7] - Notably, spending on transportation and communication services saw substantial growth, with increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [6]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a mixed price trend in the consumer market [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it returned to a 1% increase [2][3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial prices [2][3] CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI's performance was affected by significant declines in food and energy prices, while service prices increased by 0.6%, indicating a stable upward trend in service costs [4][7] - Core CPI's recovery is primarily driven by rising prices in core goods, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [4][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for household appliances and communication tools, contributing to price increases in these categories [5][6] Sector-Specific Price Trends - Certain sectors, such as coal mining and black metal smelting, have seen price increases, reflecting the impact of industry restructuring and improved market competition [7][9] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, driven by rising international gold prices [4][5] - The manufacturing prices for high-quality consumer goods, such as art and ceremonial products, have also shown significant increases, indicating a shift towards quality consumption [7][9] Future Price Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI may stabilize in October, with an annual average around 0%, while PPI is expected to fluctuate at low levels [9][10] - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices is crucial for maintaining economic stability [10] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and structural upgrades in industries are expected to support a gradual recovery in price levels [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The GDP growth target of "5%" for the whole year is expected to be achieved. In the fourth quarter, "broad credit" will actively contribute, and investment may offset the slowdown in exports. With the injection of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in late September and the allocation of 500 billion yuan in remaining quotas by the central government to local areas, investment is expected to recover [4]. - For the bond market, in the fourth quarter, with the implementation of "broad credit" and upcoming Sino - US negotiations, the internal economic momentum may improve marginally compared to the third quarter. The bond market may fluctuate in a narrow range on a new platform due to the intertwining of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Economic Data Overview: Investment Declines, Consumption Slows, and Exports Shine - **Overall Situation**: The cumulative growth rate of constant - price GDP in the first three quarters is 5.2%. The economy only needs to grow by more than 4.5% in the fourth quarter to achieve the annual target. In terms of rhythm, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, higher than that in the second quarter but lower than the same period in 2023 - 2024. In terms of price, the GDP deflator in the third quarter decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, higher than that in the second quarter, and the drag on nominal growth is narrowing [4][8]. - **Structural Features**: Investment weakening is prominent, and consumption also slows down, while exports rise against the trend, becoming a strong support for economic growth. In the third quarter, fixed - asset investment decreased by about 6.5% year - on - year, social retail sales increased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 6.6% [4][9]. - **Fourth - Quarter Outlook**: Consumption base increase may suppress readings, and exports may face marginal weakening pressure. However, with the injection of policy - based financial instruments and the allocation of remaining quotas, investment is expected to repair and offset the decline in exports to some extent [4][11]. 3.2 September Data Interpretation: Production Returns to Strength 3.2.1 Infrastructure: Policy Effects Begin to Appear, and Traditional Infrastructure Improves Marginally - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is +1.1%, and the full - scale infrastructure investment is +3.3%. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity is - 4.6%, and the full - scale infrastructure is - 8.0%. In late September, the first batch of new policy - based financial instrument funds was injected, and high - frequency indicators improved, indicating an upward trend in infrastructure investment in October [1][20]. 3.2.2 Real Estate: Investment Decline Widens, and Sales Remain Stable - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment is - 13.9%, and the single - month year - on - year is - 21.3%, a further decline of 1.8 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in residential sales area in September is - 11.4%, an expansion of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The "Golden September" market is weaker than last year, and the high - base effect may be more significant in the fourth quarter [1][24]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Investment: Decline Continues to Widen - In September, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is +4.0%. The domestic price environment has not recovered, and corporate profit expectations need to be strengthened [2][25]. 3.2.4 Consumption: Weak Month - on - Month Growth and High Base Drag Down Social Retail Sales - In September, social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year, a further decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate after seasonal adjustment turned negative to - 0.18%. Due to the high - base effect of state - subsidized categories last year, the retail growth rate of related categories decreased in September this year, while communication equipment and furniture retail had relatively high growth rates [2][29]. 3.2.5 Industry: Export Pull and Peak Production Season Drive Industrial Growth to Return to Strength - In September, the industrial growth rate increased by 6.5% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in August. The month - on - month growth rate after seasonal adjustment is +0.64%. Exports exceeded expectations in September, and the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value increased to +3.8%, which promoted manufacturing production [2][34].

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - The industrial capacity utilization rate for large-scale enterprises in Q3 was 74.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [12] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters amounted to 36,587 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 874.585 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.5% [6] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was 65.85 million square meters, down by 5.5% year-on-year [11] Trade and Prices - The total import and export value for the first three quarters was 3,360.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three quarters decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first three quarters fell by 2.8% year-on-year [8] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - The per capita disposable income for residents in the first three quarters was 32,590 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down by 13.9% year-on-year [10][11] - In September, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [12] Economic Outlook - The economic structure remains stable, with ongoing momentum for growth and resilience, indicating a solid foundation for sustained healthy development [13] - Future efforts will focus on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing market vitality to boost growth expectations [13]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains in the contraction zone, indicating stable economic fundamentals[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded, returning to the expansion zone, driven by strong holiday consumption in accommodation, dining, transportation, and cultural tourism[1] - The Investment Confidence Index has slightly increased but is still in the contraction zone, with manufacturing investment supported by structural upgrades and technology innovation[1] Inflation and Prices - In September 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fruits, while service prices fell by 0.3% due to holiday effects[2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices[2] - The core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% in 19 months, indicating a continued recovery in domestic demand[2] Industrial Prices - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September but decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Upstream industry prices stabilized, with notable improvements in coal processing (+3.8%) and black metal smelting (+0.2%) sectors[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was mitigated by the advancement of a unified national market and structural support from high-end and green manufacturing developments[3] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for gradual cuts while others suggest a more aggressive approach[7] - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which could lead to a government shutdown, affecting federal operations and potentially dragging down Q4 economic performance[8]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The industrial added value for September saw a real growth of 6.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.64%, while the growth for January to September was 6.2% year-on-year [3] Consumer and Retail Sector - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September amounted to 41,971 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, with a growth of 4.5% from January to September [3][4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment from January to September was 67,706 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 13.9% [3] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing from January to September was 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year [3] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to September totaled 371,535 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [3][4] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with an average decline of 0.1% from January to September [3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in September fell by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from January to September [3][4] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports in September was 40,436 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, while the total for January to September was 336,078 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.0% [3][4] Employment Situation - The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at 5.2% for the average from January to September [3][4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained stable in the first three quarters, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first half and the first quarter [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous recovery since March, rising to 1% in September, the highest in nearly 19 months [4] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with fresh vegetable prices averaging a drop of 7.9% and pork prices shifting from an increase of 3.8% in the first half to a decrease of 2.9% in the first three quarters [2] Group 2: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with gasoline prices dropping by 7.3% due to international oil price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Producer Price Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [5] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a recovery in prices for certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines [5] Group 4: External Influences on Prices - International oil prices have generally trended downward, impacting domestic oil-related industry prices, with a 9.9% decline in the oil and gas extraction industry [6] - Conversely, international non-ferrous metal prices have risen, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries [6] Group 5: High-Tech Industry Developments - The development of high-tech industries and effective macro policies have driven price increases in certain sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which rose by 3.0% year-on-year [7] - Upgraded consumer demand has also contributed to price increases in sectors like arts and crafts manufacturing, which saw a 12.7% rise [7]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase, while clothing prices increased by 0.8% due to seasonal changes [1] - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a negative carryover effect of approximately 0.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - The PPI's month-on-month stability is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% and coal mining prices increasing by 2.5% [2][3] - The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI is a result of ongoing macroeconomic policy effects, with some industries experiencing positive price changes due to market competition and structural upgrades [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous month, while the average CPI from January to September fell by 0.4% compared to last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February of this year [1] - Seasonal factors led to significant price increases for fresh vegetables, fruits, and eggs, which rose by 7.4%, 1.2%, and 3.5% respectively on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers showed a notable narrowing of the year-on-year decline to 2.0%, which is a reduction of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.4%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a month-on-month price increase of 0.4%, while the year-on-year price decreased by 3.6% [2]