证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 上半年收入增长 10%，盈利受老客订单波动及新厂产能爬坡影响承压 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 纺织服饰·纺织制造 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 8 月 8 日，公司发布中期业绩快报及分红预案，2025 年上半年，公司销售运动鞋 1.15 亿双，同比增长 6.14%；实现营业收入人民币 126.61 亿元，同比增长 10.36%；实现归属于上市公司股东 的净利润人民币 16.64 亿元，同比减少 11.42%。公司拟派发现金红利 1 元/股，分红率达 70%。 国信纺服观点：1） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a positive trend in the gross margin of Huahong Semiconductor (01347), predicting a rebound in gross margin to 11.5% in Q3 2025, following a recovery in product prices and strong demand for PMIC products [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of $566 million in Q2 2025, slightly exceeding the median guidance and expectations, with a gross margin of 10.8%, surpassing the upper limit of guidance [1] - The revenue forecast for 2025/26 has been raised to $2.41 billion and $2.87 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of $2.29 billion and $2.77 billion [1] - The gross margin forecast for 2025 has been increased to 10.8%, up from 9.2% [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - Management highlighted that the improvement in gross margin is primarily due to increased capacity utilization, initial cost control effects, and stabilization in product prices [1] - The company has adjusted prices in Q2 2025, with overall price increases in the single digits, expected to be more evident in Q3 and Q4 2025 [1] - The guidance for Q3 2025 revenue is set between $620 million and $640 million, with a gross margin of 10-12%, all exceeding previous expectations [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Capacity - The demand for PMIC products has surged, with a year-on-year growth of 59.5%, and the revenue share from analog/PMIC platforms has increased to 28.5%, up 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Management noted that the demand for related BCD platforms could be double the previous supply capacity [2] - The company expects to complete 80-90% of the capacity installation at the ninth factory by the end of 2025, with full completion by mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Production Capacity Projections - The company has completed a monthly capacity ramp-up of 25,000 wafers in the first half of 2025, with an updated forecast to reach 50,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025 [2] - The ramp-up rate is expected to be faster than previously predicted, with plans to achieve all 83,000 wafers of planned capacity by Q3 2026 [2] - The majority of PMIC products are 12-inch, which may help stabilize the average selling price (ASP) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Huahong Semiconductor (01347) is expected to see a reversal in its gross margin trend in 2Q25, with a forecasted gross margin rebound to 11.5% in 3Q25 and stability in 4Q25 due to positive price changes in most platform products [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised to $2.41 billion and $2.87 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of $2.29 billion and $2.77 billion, reflecting the impact of price increases, product mix changes, and high demand for PMIC [1] - The management highlighted that the gross margin exceeded guidance due to improved capacity utilization, cost control effects, and price stabilization, with 2Q25 revenue reported at $566 million, slightly above the median guidance [1] Group 2 - The management noted strong resilience in downstream demand and manageable tariff impacts, with PMIC product revenue experiencing a robust year-on-year growth of 59.5%, contributing to 28.5% of total revenue, an increase of 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s capacity ramp-up is expected to be faster than previously predicted, with the ninth factory projected to reach 80-90% completion by the end of 2025, and full completion by mid-2026, with a monthly capacity ramp-up of 50,000 wafers by the end of 2025 [2] - The management indicated that the demand for PMIC products is likely to be double the previous supply capacity, and the company is adjusting prices, with overall price increases expected to be in the single digits, reflecting a reduction in pricing pressure across most platforms [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.10, up from the previous RMB 19.95 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in its half-year results for 2025, with revenue of RMB 999 million (up 8.1% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 117 million (up 14.2% year-on-year) [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable industry environment and a sufficient order backlog, leading to continuous growth in performance from 2025 to 2027 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 999 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 117 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 561 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.8% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from environmental testing services was RMB 487 million (up 5.8% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 55.0% (down 0.8 percentage points) [2]. - Integrated circuit testing revenue reached RMB 155 million (up 21.0% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 36.5% (down 6.4 percentage points) [2]. - Testing equipment revenue was RMB 310 million (up 6.3% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 26.6% (down 4.7 percentage points) [2]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company's net operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was RMB 99 million, an increase of 29.3% year-on-year, attributed to improved collection mechanisms [3]. - Capital expenditure was RMB 217 million, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced equipment purchases [3]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 289 million, RMB 357 million, and RMB 429 million respectively [4]. - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2023 to 2027 is projected at 23%, which is higher than the average of comparable service companies at 21% [4].

Group 1 - The latest development regarding the judicial auction of shares held by the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Spring兴精工, Sun Jiexiao, has been reported. The auction for 154 million shares and 15.535 million shares, which are currently under judicial freeze, took place from July 28 to July 29, 2025, but went unsold due to no bids being placed [1] - As of the announcement date, Sun Jiexiao and her concerted party, Yuan Jing, collectively hold 335 million shares, accounting for 29.66% of the company's total equity. Among these, 319 million shares are pledged, representing 95.36% of their holdings and 28.28% of the total equity. Additionally, 304 million shares are under judicial freeze, making up 90.73% of their holdings and 26.91% of the total equity [1] - The company stated that the failure of the judicial auction will not have a significant adverse impact on its production and operations. However, there is uncertainty regarding whether the relevant court will continue to execute other judicial procedures, which could lead to risks such as forced transfer or judicial auction of shares, potentially affecting the stability of the company's control [1] Group 2 - Spring兴精工 previously disclosed that as of June 28, Suzhou Industrial Park Kahn Lian Technology Co., Ltd. owes the company 316 million yuan in equity transfer payments, while Huizhou Zehong Technology Co., Ltd. owes 80.925 million yuan in business-related payments, totaling 397 million yuan. Sun Jiexiao, as the actual controller of Suzhou Industrial Park Kahn Lian Technology Co., Ltd., bears joint guarantee responsibility for these payments [2] - The company has issued a performance forecast indicating that it expects a negative net profit for the first half of 2025. This is attributed to the ongoing ramp-up of production capacity in its new energy vehicle components business, which has not yet reached an ideal state, thus impacting operational performance [2] - Additionally, Chongqing Xinrunxing Technology Co., Ltd. has filed a lawsuit against the subsidiary Huizhou Spring兴精工 due to a sales contract dispute, with the amount in question being 38 million yuan. As of now, the case has not yet been heard. Based on the principle of accounting prudence, Huizhou Spring兴精工 plans to recognize a provision for expected liabilities amounting to 21 million yuan [2]

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Sales Model - The company utilizes both online and offline sales channels, with offline including sales to large foreign tool and building material supermarkets, brand tool manufacturers, and import/export companies [1][2] - Online sales have been developed through third-party B2C e-commerce platforms targeting end customers [2] Client Relationships - The company collaborates with well-known brands such as Bosch, Stanley Black & Decker, and Groupe Adeo, and also engages in OEM partnerships with companies like QuanFeng Holdings and Grebo [2] Trade Practices - The primary trade model employed is FOB (Free on Board) [3] Labor Intensity - The company operates several workshops with varying levels of automation; the assembly workshop is labor-intensive while others are highly automated [4] Overseas Expansion - The company has established a factory in Vietnam, similar to competitors like QuanFeng Holdings and Grebo [5] - The establishment of the Vietnam factory helps mitigate market risks and enhances supply assurance for overseas markets [7] Production Capacity - Domestic production capacity utilization has decreased due to some orders being shifted overseas, but the company is actively expanding into new markets and forming domestic sales teams [5] - Challenges in ramping up production capacity in Vietnam include the need for improved operational skills among frontline workers [6] Revenue Concentration - The company's largest customer accounted for 46% of sales revenue in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to slower employee efficiency improvements and the impact of tariffs, but maintains a strong order book and is expanding its customer base, leading to a strong medium to long-term outlook [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue increased by 2.9% to $444 million, with manufacturing revenue rising by 2.5% to $433 million, and shipment volume up by 4.1% to 15.4 million pairs. The average selling price decreased by 1.7% to $28.2 per pair [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $169 million, $183 million, and $201 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 9%, and 10% respectively, corresponding to a PE of 9X for 2025 and 8X for 2026 [1][2]. Production Capacity and Challenges - Production ramp-up in Indonesia and the Philippines has been slower than expected due to insufficient employee efficiency, leading to some products being produced in Vietnam, which has increased production costs [2]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its factory in Indonesia, now expected to be completed in 2026, one year earlier than initially planned, and is expanding production around its existing factory in Vietnam [2]. Customer Orders and Market Position - The company has a strong order certainty for Q4 2025 and is planning to initiate 2026 order planning in Q3. It is also progressing with new customer collaborations, including two new sports clients and one luxury client expected to be developed in 2026 [1][2]. - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer in the sports fashion footwear sector, with stable core customer orders and high product barriers, indicating strong medium to long-term certainty despite short-term challenges [2].

Core Viewpoint - Lutai A (000726.SZ) has sold financial assets to improve liquidity, with the sale of Rongchang Biotech shares impacting net profit by 81.04 million yuan, exceeding 10% of the company's audited net profit for the last fiscal year [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Lutai A achieved revenue of 6.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, up 1.7% [1][6]. - The company completed a total cash dividend distribution of 204 million yuan for 2024, representing approximately 49.84% of the net profit for the year [1][8]. Shareholding and Asset Management - As of December 31, 2024, Lutai A held 3.918 million shares of Rongchang Biotech, accounting for 0.72% of its total equity, with a book value of 118 million yuan [2][3]. - Following the sale, Lutai A retains 612,600 shares of Rongchang Biotech [2][3]. Market Activity - The stock price of Rongchang Biotech fell by 18.36% on June 26, 2024, closing at 60.7 yuan per share, despite a year-to-date increase of 97.85% [4]. - The current market value of Lutai A's remaining shares in Rongchang Biotech is approximately 37.185 million yuan [4]. Business Operations - Lutai A's textile and apparel segment generated revenue of 5.707 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.74% increase, with fabric and clothing products contributing 4.335 billion yuan and 1.372 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The production volumes for fabrics and shirts were 205 million meters and 18.2526 million pieces, showing growth of 1.45% and 3.18% year-on-year [6]. Investment and Capital Management - Lutai A raised 1.4 billion yuan through convertible bonds in 2020, with net proceeds of 1.388 billion yuan allocated to strategic projects [7]. - The company has invested 586 million yuan and 358 million yuan in its functional fabric smart eco-park and overseas high-end fabric product line projects, respectively, with both projects having exceeded their investment targets [7]. Share Buyback and Dividends - In 2024, Lutai A repurchased B-shares for a total of 37.867 million yuan, contributing to a total cash distribution (dividends and buybacks) of 242 million yuan, which is 59.03% of the net profit for the year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Tongcheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook for both the company and its convertible bonds, indicating strong operational performance and financial stability [1][3]. Company Overview - Tongcheng New Materials Group was established in 2008 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2018, with a focus on the chemical industry [10]. - As of March 2025, the company has total assets of 87.03 billion yuan and equity of 35.23 billion yuan [10][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 32.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.10%, and a profit of 5.50 billion yuan, up 28.85% from the previous year [6][17]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.76% increase year-on-year [6][17]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.16 percentage points in 2024, driven by a decrease in raw material prices [17][20]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the specialty rubber additives sector, with its production accounting for 28.99% of the domestic total in 2024 [5][13]. - In the semiconductor photoresist market, the company has expanded its production capacity to approximately 9,000 tons per year as of March 2025, with substantial revenue growth in this segment [5][14]. Operational Highlights - The company has seen an increase in production and sales volume of rubber additives due to recovering demand, with production capacity utilization rates improving [5][20]. - The company’s semiconductor photoresist business generated revenue of 303 million yuan in 2024, a 50.43% increase year-on-year, while the display panel photoresist segment achieved 330 million yuan, up 26.80% [5][14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the low utilization rate of biodegradable materials due to market demand issues and high fixed costs [6][19]. - A significant portion of the raw materials for photoresist products is imported, leading to potential supply chain vulnerabilities due to global tariff uncertainties [6][19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the release of capacity from its ongoing photoresist projects, which may enhance production capabilities [5][6]. - The company’s ability to maintain its competitive edge will depend on its capacity to innovate and adapt to market changes, particularly in the photoresist sector [5][19].