Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the strategies of various US funds in response to interest rate declines and low - interest periods. US asset management institutions adapt to cycles and innovate to deal with changes. In the post - financial crisis interest rate decline period, they developed bond ETFs, increased overseas investment, and reduced management fees. In the interest rate increase period after 2021, they increased inflation - linked bond investments [3][87]. - The US has experienced two low - interest periods in the 21st century. The first was from the end of 2008 to the end of 2015, and the second was from March 2020 to March 2022. Different types of funds showed different performance and asset allocation changes during these periods [11]. Summary by Directory 1. US Low - Interest Period Review - 21st - century US low - interest periods: There were two periods when the policy rate was maintained in the 0 - 0.25% range. The first was from the end of 2008 to the end of 2015 due to the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was from March 2020 to March 2022 because of the global public health event [11]. - 2008 - 2016 interest rate situation: After the sub - prime mortgage crisis, the Fed took measures such as conventional interest rate cuts and quantitative easing. The interest rate showed a "step - by - step decline + periodic shock" feature. The 10Y US Treasury yield dropped sharply in 2008 and then fluctuated [12][21]. - 2020 - 2022 interest rate situation: The global public health event led to a sharp economic downturn. The Fed took aggressive measures. The interest rate cycle turned earlier, and the low - interest period was shorter. The 10 - year US Treasury yield started to rise in September 2020 [25][26]. 2. Evolution of US Mutual Fund Asset Allocation 2.1 Structure Evolution of Mutual Funds - Fund types and scale relationship: US mutual funds include stock, hybrid, bond, and money market funds. Stock funds dominate, so the total scale is highly correlated with the stock market. There is a rotation relationship between bond and money market funds [31]. - 2008 - 2016 asset rotation: In 2008, the financial crisis made money market funds grow. From 2009 - 2012, funds flowed from money market funds to bond funds. After 2012, funds returned from low - risk assets to equity assets [32][37]. - 2020 - 2022 situation: Interest rate trends had no significant impact on the portfolio structure. Investors increased inflation - linked bonds to hedge inflation risks [41]. 2.2 Asset Allocation Changes of Bond Funds - Types of bond funds: Include investment - grade corporate bond funds, high - yield bond funds, global bond funds, government bond funds, etc. [42]. - Asset allocation in different periods: In the interest rate decline and early low - interest periods, low - risk bond funds increased. In the later low - interest period (2013 - 2016), bond funds increased returns through credit downgrading. They also increased overseas bond investments and the proportion of multi - allocation and alternative strategy bond funds [45][52][56]. 2.3 Asset Allocation Changes of Money Market Funds - Types of money market funds: Divided into taxable and tax - exempt. Taxable funds include government and non - government money market funds. - Low - interest period performance: In low - interest periods, the proportion of government money market funds increased, and money market funds increased returns by extending duration [60][64]. 2.4 ETF Structure Changes - ETF composition: Composed of stock, hybrid, bond, and commodity ETFs, with stock ETFs dominant. - Low - interest period performance: In the first low - interest period, the proportion of bond and commodity ETFs increased. Active - management ETFs emerged, and increasing overseas assets became a strategy to increase returns [72][74][75]. 3. Fee Optimization and Operational Innovation of US Mutual Funds - Fee structure: Consists of one - time fees (front - end and back - end sales fees) and continuous fees (management fees, 12b - 1 fees, etc.). - Fee reduction trend: Over the past 20 years, management fees have decreased. Index funds' proportion increased due to their fee advantages. Low - interest rates promoted fee reduction through multiple paths [77]. - Fee - related innovation: Low - interest rates promoted the popularity of no - load shares and zero - commission platforms, and the independence of consulting fees, which reduced the overall industry fee level [84]. 4. Implications of US Fund Asset Allocation in Low - Interest Periods - Interest rate decline strategy: Increase low - risk government and investment - grade bonds during rapid interest rate declines and use credit downgrading after a long - term low - interest period [87]. - Overseas investment: Increase overseas bond investments to balance risks and increase returns [88]. - Fee strategy: With the trend of fee reduction, the proportion of index funds continues to expand [88]. - Financial innovation: Use financial innovation such as multi - allocation and alternative strategies to resist cycle fluctuations and buy inflation - protection bonds to hedge inflation risks [89].

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, household deposits in China increased by 10.77 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high of 162.02 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend towards saving among individuals [1] - A survey revealed that 38.8% of respondents plan to save more than half of their monthly salary, while only 5% intend to decrease their savings, reflecting an increasing awareness of savings [1][3] - The primary reason for saving is the desire for security, highlighting a shift in financial behavior among the population [3] Group 2 - Despite the rising savings awareness, bank deposit rates have been declining, with major banks offering rates below 1% for one-year fixed deposits as of July 2025, suggesting a challenging environment for traditional savings [5] - The article recommends a specific short-term bond fund, Guotai Liying, which has shown strong historical performance with a return of 8.11% since its inception and an annualized return of 3.03%, outperforming benchmarks and peers [5][6] - Guotai Liying A has demonstrated excellent risk control, with a maximum drawdown of only -0.08% this year, significantly lower than the industry average [6][7] Group 3 - The Guotai Liying fund has a year-to-date return of 1.07%, compared to the industry average of 0.78%, making it an attractive option in a volatile market [6][7] - The fund's Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio are also significantly better than its peers, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return for investors [7][9] - Guotai Fund has been actively managing short-term bond strategies since 2018, leading to a rapid growth in the scale of its "Li" series funds, which reached 29.5 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a 60% increase from the end of 2022 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of technology in the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the emergence of innovative financial products like the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which provides investors with new opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [2][5][28]. Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance this year, highlighted by the rapid listing of companies like CATL and the surge in Xiaomi's stock price due to strong orders [2]. - The atmosphere in the stock market has also positively influenced the bond market, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission advocating for the development of Sci-Tech bonds and related products [3][4]. Group 2: Introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETF - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF has gained attention as an innovative financial tool, quickly approved and sold out, raising 30 billion in a single day [4]. - This ETF fills a gap in the market for technology-related bond funds and offers investors a way to benefit from technological advancements in a low-interest-rate environment [5][10]. Group 3: Evolution of the Bond Market - The bond market in China has shifted from a focus on local government financing and real estate to supporting technology innovation, leading to the emergence of the "Sci-Tech Board" in the bond market [7][9]. - The issuance of Sci-Tech bonds has expanded significantly, with a total issuance exceeding 1 trillion last year and a current outstanding scale of 1.13 trillion, reflecting a growing interest from private enterprises [11]. Group 4: Investment Performance and Risk Management - Investing in Sci-Tech bonds has provided returns that align with the performance of technology stocks while avoiding their volatility, with the AAA Sci-Tech bond index rising 14.35% since June 2022 [13][14]. - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF is designed to manage risks effectively, utilizing various credit derivatives to mitigate potential defaults [26]. Group 5: Accessibility and Cost Efficiency - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF has a low management fee of 0.2%, making it an attractive option for both retail and institutional investors looking for efficient investment vehicles in the bond market [27]. - This ETF lowers the entry barrier for individual investors to participate in the "Sci-Tech Board" and provides institutional investors with a diversified investment without the need for extensive credit research [27].

资料显示，景顺长城安悦180天持有期债基拟任基金经理米良，拥有11年证券、基金从业经验，6.6年投 资经验，投资风格积极稳健，对资金面敏感，擅长短端利率机会把握，交易灵活果断。米良管理过包括 货币基金、指数型债基、主动管理纯债等多种产品，其中代表作景顺长城30天滚动持有，自2022年4月 27日成立以来，净值增长率为9.06%（同期基准6.99%）。值得一提的是，该基金业绩走势稳健，根据 定期报告显示，自成立以来的每个自然半年度，均为正净值增长率，并且最大回撤仅-0.20%，远低于同 期短债基金指数（-0.55%）。（数据来源：基金业绩来自景顺长城，经托管行复核；基准、指数、最大 回撤来自Wind，截至2025/5/31） 展望未来，米良表示，基于当前经济基本面，货币政策预计维持宽松，叠加财政端保持克制、美联储降 息概率较大等因素，对债市保持较乐观判断。同时关注利率是否会下行过快以及权益转暖对债市的压 制，将重点关注高弹性、高流动性品种，保持组合较好的流动性，方便灵活调整方向，转债方面，或将 具备结构性机会。 今年以来，利率快速下行后在低位震荡，截至2025年7月14日，最新10年期国债收益率为1.68%。当 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the transformative changes in the capital market and the shift of the Chinese public fund industry from scale expansion to high-quality development, highlighting the importance of professional investment research in optimizing asset allocation [1] Group 1: Human-shaped Robots - The human-shaped robot industry is in a critical transition phase, moving from concept to reality, with significant opportunities expected in various sectors such as industrial manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, and consumer services [5][12] - The global market for human-shaped robots is projected to reach approximately $10.17 billion in 2024, with an expected growth to $15 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 56% [9] - China is anticipated to capture a significant share of the global market, with projections indicating a market size of 38 billion yuan by 2030, accounting for 44.77% of the global market [9] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-quality companies with long-term growth potential and strong business models, emphasizing the importance of industry growth stages and market size [6][7] - Key indicators for assessing investment viability include the industry’s compound growth rate over the next 3 to 5 years, as well as the company's core competitiveness and technological barriers [7][8] - Financial sustainability metrics such as gross margin, net margin, and research and development investment are critical for evaluating the health of a business model [8] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a shift away from the "lying win" era, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping to around 1.65%, necessitating a more refined approach to bond investment [20][21] - In the current low-interest-rate environment, bond investment strategies must adapt to focus on liquidity management and risk control, ensuring the ability to capitalize on market opportunities [21][23] - The outlook for the bond market remains positive, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and ongoing monetary easing, with various pure bond investment opportunities expected to arise [25][26] Group 4: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy stresses the importance of patience and a long-term perspective, advocating for a focus on fundamental analysis and value investing rather than chasing short-term gains [26][28] - The approach includes a careful assessment of market cycles and the need to realize profits during high valuation periods to mitigate risks [29][30] - The strategy also involves a diversified selection across various sectors, with an emphasis on capturing industry trends and macroeconomic signals [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment has made it increasingly difficult for fixed income products to achieve excellent performance, necessitating a shift in investment strategies to adapt to new market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ten-year government bond yield has dropped to approximately 1.65%, indicating the end of the "easy win" era for bonds [1]. - The dual pressures of low interest rates and "asset scarcity" have reduced the margin for error in bond investments, requiring a more refined approach [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - A shift from a strategy of making a few large trades to capturing smaller, more frequent opportunities is necessary due to changing market dynamics [2]. - The management of bond portfolios should involve a dual-dimensional control of credit duration and volatility duration, with a focus on liquidity management to handle extreme market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Product Management - Different products require tailored strategies based on their positioning and liability characteristics, with a focus on safety for short-duration bonds and a more aggressive approach for longer-duration products [3]. - The adjustment of positions and metrics should be flexible, taking into account market phases, fundamental trends, and technical indicators [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by a loose monetary policy and favorable fundamentals, despite potential external pressures such as trade policies [6]. - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year include credit bonds, interest rate bonds, and local government bonds, with a particular interest in convertible bonds due to their dual nature of fixed income and potential equity appreciation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The importance of swing trading in the bond market has increased due to continuously declining interest rates, leading to a need for traders to be more sensitive to short-term market fluctuations to capture profit opportunities [1][5][10]. Bond Market Trends - The yield on "AAA" rated credit bonds has reached historical lows, with significant declines observed; for instance, yields for AAA city investment bonds have dropped by 50-100 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [4][9]. - As of July 2025, the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds was recorded at 1.6570%, while 30-year bonds remained below 2% [4][9]. - The average yield for one-year bank wealth management products is around 1.20%, and three-year products are approximately 1.55% [5]. Investment Strategies - Institutions are increasingly engaging in high-frequency trading to adapt to the low-yield environment, with public funds, insurance asset management, and bank wealth management subsidiaries participating more actively [12]. - Investors are advised to maintain a primary position in city investment bonds for stable cash flow while exploring other higher-yielding assets [21][24]. Challenges in the Market - The low yield environment presents challenges for profitability, as institutions face pressure to meet rigid liability assessments while dealing with shrinking profit margins [15][16]. - The supply of high-yield assets is diminishing, and the overall bond supply remains tight despite some improvements compared to the previous year [16][18]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the downward trend in bond yields will continue due to factors such as the real estate cycle downturn and the delayed effects of tariffs, suggesting that there is still room for interest rate cuts [7]. - The current low yield environment is prompting institutions to shift from a debt-driven investment approach to an equity-driven strategy, emphasizing the need for innovation in investment practices [24].

Core Insights - The bond market is experiencing a significant decline in yields, with "AAA" rated credit bonds reaching historical lows, prompting traders to engage in frequent wave trading to capture small profit margins [1][4][5] - The overall investment environment is shifting towards low-risk assets due to increased volatility in stocks and funds, leading to a preference for stable, low-risk investments [3][12] Bond Market Trends - The issuance rates for "AAA" rated credit bonds have dropped significantly, with examples such as Huadian International's bond at 1.89% and Zhongshan Public's bond at 1.66%, marking record lows for similar ratings and terms [1][4] - The yield for 1-year "AAA" rated city investment bonds has decreased to as low as 1.67%, down from approximately 2.5%-2.8% in the same period last year, indicating a drop of 80-110 basis points [4][5] Trading Strategies - The importance of wave trading has increased as the yield spread narrows, with traders aiming for small gains of 1-2 basis points per transaction [1][2] - Institutions are increasingly adopting high-frequency trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations, with a notable rise in participation from public funds, insurance asset management, and bank wealth management subsidiaries [7][12] Investment Challenges - The low yield environment presents challenges for institutions, as they struggle to meet liability requirements while facing limited profit margins [8][9] - The scarcity of high-yield assets is becoming more pronounced, with banks unable to invest in the stock market due to regulatory constraints, leading to a focus on the bond market for asset allocation [9][10] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue experiencing downward pressure on yields due to monetary policy shifts and economic challenges, with the potential for further interest rate cuts [5][6] - Institutions are advised to diversify their portfolios by incorporating longer-duration bonds, industry bonds, and equity assets to enhance yield potential in a low-rate environment [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing savings behavior of young people in China, particularly in the context of low interest rates and the search for better investment alternatives. It highlights a shift towards increased savings and a preference for low to medium-risk investments among younger generations [4][5][35]. Group 1: Savings Trends - In a recent survey, approximately 30% of respondents reported savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, with 12.3% of the post-2000 generation having savings over 300,000 yuan [6][8]. - The median savings amount reported in the survey is between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, with the post-1985 generation showing the highest proportion of savings over 300,000 yuan [12][10]. - The survey indicates that 38.8% of respondents save more than half of their monthly salary, with a significant portion of the younger generation planning to increase their savings rate in the future [19][21]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Respondents showed a preference for bank deposits, money market funds, and bonds, with younger individuals favoring more liquid options like money market funds due to their accessibility and slightly higher returns [14][27]. - Higher income individuals tend to diversify their investments more, with those earning over 500,000 yuan selecting an average of 3.6 investment options compared to 2.6 for those earning under 100,000 yuan [17][25]. - The article notes a trend where younger generations are more inclined to increase low to medium-risk investments, while older generations are more likely to reduce consumption, particularly in discretionary spending [25][35]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article references macroeconomic data showing that household savings in China increased by 8.3 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, with a record high of 74.29% of household deposits being time deposits [22][27]. - The current interest rates for one-year fixed deposits have dropped to 0.95%, prompting individuals to seek higher returns through alternative savings and investment methods [30][27]. - The article suggests that the cautious approach to savings and investments among young people is influenced by their experiences and expectations shaped by economic conditions [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains strong, but the low interest rate environment poses challenges for achieving expected returns, making investment increasingly difficult [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has not yet reached a turning point for long-term low interest rates, with no significant breakthroughs in rates observed as of June 2025 [2]. - The market consensus indicates limited further downward movement in interest rates in the short term, despite fluctuations [2]. - The investment strategies for 2023 focus on credit bonds and city investment bonds, while 2024 will see a shift towards long-duration government bonds [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The primary strategy for the second half of the year is to seek stability in a high-probability, low-odds environment, with limited room for further rate declines [5]. - Risk management is crucial, and strategies such as yield curve compression and bond switching can provide stable returns [5]. - Expanding into "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds, is recommended for achieving excess returns [5][6]. Group 3: Asset Performance - The convertible bond market has seen a decrease in total issuance, reflecting both improved credit risk and challenges in attracting new capital [6]. - Other fixed income-like assets, such as REITs and high-dividend stocks, have performed well, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 14.51% and the CITIC Bank index increasing by 15.03% as of June 2025 [6][7]. - Incorporating quantitative strategies and diversifying income sources can enhance returns in the current low-interest environment [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The evolving landscape of the low-interest rate environment requires fixed income managers to adapt and expand their investment strategies to provide stable returns [7]. - The mission for fixed income managers is to continuously broaden their capabilities to meet investor needs in this new era [7].