Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the passage of a significant tax reform bill by the U.S. Congress, which is expected to provide funding for President Trump's domestic agenda while potentially resulting in millions of Americans losing health insurance [3][4]. Legislative Outcome - The bill passed in the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 to 214 votes, marking a significant victory for President Trump [4][6]. - The legislation aims to fund immigration policies, make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, and fulfill new tax incentives promised during Trump's 2024 campaign [4][6]. Financial Implications - According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill will increase the U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, adding to the existing $36.2 trillion debt [5]. - The bill is projected to reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion over the next decade while cutting $1.1 trillion in spending, primarily affecting Medicaid, which covers 71 million low-income Americans [12]. - The changes in Medicaid are expected to result in nearly 12 million people losing their insurance [12]. Economic Impact - The bill is designed to lower taxes for all income levels and stimulate economic growth, with Republican leaders claiming it will benefit everyone [9]. - However, analysis indicates that the wealthiest Americans will benefit the most, while low-income individuals may see a decrease in actual income due to cuts in safety net programs exceeding tax benefits [14]. Debt and Credit Rating Concerns - The legislation raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, temporarily avoiding default risks, but concerns remain about the long-term economic stimulus effects and rising borrowing costs [16]. - Moody's has already downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to debt issues, and some foreign investors are expressing concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds following this bill [15]. Political Dynamics - The bill is expected to become a significant topic in the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats aiming to regain control of at least one chamber of Congress [19]. - Republican leaders argue that the tax cuts will boost the economy before the elections, while many Americans are worried about the bill's costs and its impact on low-income populations [19].

当地时间7月4日美国独立日当天，总统特朗普将签署备受争议的"大而美"税收与支出法案，标志着其任内最重大的经济政策胜利。该法案以微 弱优势通过国会两院表决，核心条款包括延长企业和个人减税措施、削减社会福利支出并提高债务上限。尽管法案被批评加剧贫富分化和财政 赤字，但市场对短期经济刺激的预期推动美股高开，美元指数升至97附近，而黄金价格则因美债收益率攀升和美元走强承压，现货黄金在3330 美元/盎司附近震荡。 一、法案核心内容与通过历程 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年重返白宫后推动的标志性立法，其核心目标是通过减税和财政支出调整刺激经济。法案主要内容包括： 无限期延长企业税减免：将企业所得税最高税率维持在21%，并取消替代性最低税，预计未来十年为企业节省4.5万亿美元。 个人税调整：提高遗产税和赠予税免税额，加班费和小费收入免税，但医疗补助和食物援助计划（SNAP）的资格要求被收紧，预计削减近1.5 万亿美元社会福利支出。 债务扩张：联邦债务上限提高5万亿美元，未来十年赤字预计增加3.3万亿美元，美国国债规模将突破40万亿美元。 参议院于7月1日以51:50的微弱优势通过，副总统万斯投下关键一票；众议院于3日以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that financing needs may rise following the implementation of the Republican tax and spending legislation, leading to potential short-term debt issuance to meet these needs [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury may issue more short-term Treasury bonds to replenish the general account after the debt ceiling is lifted [1] - The new legislation helps to alleviate previous constraints imposed by the debt ceiling, allowing for increased debt issuance [1] - The initial strategy will likely focus on short-term debt issuance to address immediate financing requirements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [2][11]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June showed an increase of 147,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [11]. - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector [12]. - Industrial orders in May increased by 8.2%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2014, with non-defense orders rising by 7.5% [13]. Trade Negotiations Summary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with EU negotiators, expressing hope for a principle trade agreement before the upcoming deadline [16]. - Yellen warned that if trade negotiations do not progress, tariffs may revert to previous levels [17]. - The market remains focused on the U.S. Congress's deliberations regarding President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan, with a procedural vote passing in the House [21][22]. Stock Market Performance Summary - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.97% and the S&P 500 up 0.81% [7]. - Solar stocks showed strong performance, with Sunrun rising over 18% and First Solar increasing over 8% [8]. - Notably, the stock of Brain Rejuvenation Technology surged over 170% in a single day, marking a year-to-date increase of 21,300% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for U.S. Treasury securities is strong both domestically and internationally [1] Group 1: Demand for U.S. Debt - There is significant demand for U.S. Treasury securities from both domestic and international investors [1] - The 2-year Treasury indicates that overnight rates are too high [1] Group 2: Debt Management - The debt management process is described as "orderly" [1] - Concerns regarding the debt ceiling issue are expected to diminish later [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - The Federal Reserve Committee appears to be somewhat "off track" in its judgments [1]

美国财长贝森特：晚些时候就不用担心（债务上限）"X日"问题。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts, the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs, the traditional consumption off - season, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the downward trend of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories have led to a relatively strong copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures on July 2, 2025, was 80,540, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,958 lots, down 11,491 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 223,122 lots, down 861 lots from the previous day. The inventory was 22,425 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper on July 2, 2025, was 80,208, up 785 from the previous day. The basis of Shanghai copper was 450, up 885 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **LME Market**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 2, 2025, was 9,943, up 67 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 93,475, down 93,250 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro - level**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by more than $3 trillion. The Fed may appoint a successor to Chairman Powell in advance. The US ADP employment in June was 33,000, lower than expected, which slightly reduced the probability of no interest - rate cut in July, but the expected time for interest - rate cuts is still September/October/December [3]. - **Upstream**: The copper concentrate transportation of some mines was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Some copper smelters had production disruptions, while some new smelters were expected to be put into production. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July may increase. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to increase, and the import volume may be affected by the closed import window [3]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises may cut production due to high finished - product inventories. The capacity utilization rates of various copper - related downstream industries are expected to decline due to factors such as the traditional consumption off - season and the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [3].

Core Points - The Senate passed Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a narrow vote of 51-50, aided by Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote, despite opposition from three Republican senators [1] - Critics argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy while harming the poorest Americans, with Senator Bernie Sanders labeling it a "gift to billionaires" [1][2] - The bill's passage in the Senate requires further approval from the House of Representatives before it can be signed into law by the President [1][5] Group 1: Opposition from Republican Senators - Senator Susan Collins from Maine opposed the bill due to cuts to Medicaid, which would significantly reduce funding by $5.9 billion over the next decade, affecting healthcare access for approximately 400,000 residents [2] - Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina expressed concerns that the bill would jeopardize health insurance for 600,000 residents in his state [2] - Senator Rand Paul, a proponent of controlling government spending, criticized the bill for increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and projected a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade [4] Group 2: Impact on Taxation - The bill is expected to provide significant tax breaks to high-income earners, with approximately 60% of tax reductions benefiting individuals earning $217,000 or more, while low-income families earning $35,000 or less would see an average tax cut of only $150 [4] - The Democratic opposition has framed the bill as "robbing the poor to give to the rich," highlighting the adverse effects on low-income Americans [4] Group 3: Legislative Process and Challenges - The House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority, previously passed the bill with a narrow margin and is now faced with the Senate's modified version, which may face resistance from some House Republicans [5] - The House Rules Committee has moved to advance the Senate version for a full vote, with potential delays due to weather-related travel issues affecting some members [5] - President Trump has been actively engaging with dissenting Republican senators in an effort to secure support for the bill [5] Group 4: Elon Musk's Criticism - Elon Musk has publicly criticized the "Big and Beautiful" bill, arguing that it increases government spending and supports declining industries while undermining future sectors [7] - Trump's threats to expel Musk from the U.S. have drawn significant media attention, although legal experts suggest that such actions would be difficult to implement given Musk's citizenship status [7][8]

Group 1: Legislative Progress - The "Big and Beautiful Act" narrowly passed in the Senate with a vote of 51:50 and will be sent to the House for a final vote[1] - The Senate version of the bill differs significantly from the House version submitted in May, necessitating a return to the House for a new vote[1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass the bill before July 4[1] Group 2: Budgetary Differences - The Senate's revised budget plan is projected to increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion, compared to the House's $2.4 trillion increase[2] - Including interest costs, the Senate's total potential debt impact is $3.94 trillion, while the House's is $2.97 trillion[2] - The Senate version proposes a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, while the House version suggests a $4 trillion increase[2] Group 3: Key Issues and Risks - Major points of contention between the two chambers include Medicaid cuts, SNAP reductions, and the SALT deduction cap[2] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party may affect the speed and success of the bill's passage[4] - The potential for the House to reject the revised Senate version remains, depending on the extent of disagreements[3]

Core Points - The Senate narrowly passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Trump, which is referred to as an "economic nuclear bomb" due to its significant tax cuts and social safety net reductions, while increasing military and immigration enforcement spending, leading to a projected $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][2] - The bill has been sent to the House for a final vote, but some Republican lawmakers have publicly opposed the Senate version [1] Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the Bill - Extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts - New tax benefits for tip income and overtime pay - Increased budget for military and immigration enforcement - Reduction of approximately $930 billion in Medicaid and food assistance for low-income individuals - Repeal of several green energy incentives from the previous Biden administration - The bill highlights divisions among Republicans regarding the $36.2 trillion national debt and raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] Legislative Process and Challenges - The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote; three Republican senators voted against it alongside all Democratic senators [3] - The final version included provisions to secure support from Senator Lisa Murkowski, such as additional food assistance for certain states and $50 billion in funding for rural hospitals [3] - The House, with a narrow Republican majority of 220-212, is expected to have a contentious vote, with Trump planning to engage deeply in lobbying efforts [3] Reactions and Implications - Billionaire Elon Musk criticized the bill for excessive spending and pledged to support challengers to current Republican lawmakers in the midterm elections [4] - Democratic leaders condemned the bill as the largest theft in U.S. healthcare history, claiming it would deprive hungry children of food [4] - The Tax Foundation indicated that the primary beneficiaries of the Senate version of the bill would be the top 1% of earners with incomes exceeding $663,000 in 2025 [5] - Independent analyses suggest that tightening food and healthcare eligibility will significantly reduce income for impoverished populations, with an estimated 12 million people losing healthcare coverage [6]