Core Points - The Senate narrowly passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Trump, which is referred to as an "economic nuclear bomb" due to its significant tax cuts and social safety net reductions, while increasing military and immigration enforcement spending, leading to a projected $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][2] - The bill has been sent to the House for a final vote, but some Republican lawmakers have publicly opposed the Senate version [1] Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the Bill - Extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts - New tax benefits for tip income and overtime pay - Increased budget for military and immigration enforcement - Reduction of approximately $930 billion in Medicaid and food assistance for low-income individuals - Repeal of several green energy incentives from the previous Biden administration - The bill highlights divisions among Republicans regarding the $36.2 trillion national debt and raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] Legislative Process and Challenges - The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote; three Republican senators voted against it alongside all Democratic senators [3] - The final version included provisions to secure support from Senator Lisa Murkowski, such as additional food assistance for certain states and $50 billion in funding for rural hospitals [3] - The House, with a narrow Republican majority of 220-212, is expected to have a contentious vote, with Trump planning to engage deeply in lobbying efforts [3] Reactions and Implications - Billionaire Elon Musk criticized the bill for excessive spending and pledged to support challengers to current Republican lawmakers in the midterm elections [4] - Democratic leaders condemned the bill as the largest theft in U.S. healthcare history, claiming it would deprive hungry children of food [4] - The Tax Foundation indicated that the primary beneficiaries of the Senate version of the bill would be the top 1% of earners with incomes exceeding $663,000 in 2025 [5] - Independent analyses suggest that tightening food and healthcare eligibility will significantly reduce income for impoverished populations, with an estimated 12 million people losing healthcare coverage [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Elon Musk and Donald Trump highlights significant political and economic implications, particularly regarding electric vehicle subsidies and their impact on the future of American industries and employment [1][3]. Group 1: Musk's Criticism of Trump's Policies - Musk criticized the recent tax reform bill proposed by the Trump administration, arguing that cuts to electric vehicle and clean energy subsidies would harm the future of American industries and lead to millions of job losses [1][3]. - He expressed that supporting such a bill would be political suicide for the Republican Party and accused the government of favoring outdated traditional industries [1][3]. - Musk's statements indicate a shift in his political strategy, as he previously invested $250 million to support Trump during the 2024 election cycle [3]. Group 2: Trump's Response - Trump responded to Musk's criticisms by stating that without subsidies, Musk's companies would likely fail, suggesting that Musk might return to South Africa [4][5]. - He emphasized that he has always opposed forced electric vehicle policies, framing them as absurd and a key issue in his campaign [4][5]. - Trump claimed that Musk has received more subsidies than anyone in history and suggested that the government should investigate the subsidies Musk's companies have received [5]. Group 3: Political Implications - Musk's comments may disrupt the internal dynamics of the Republican Party and introduce uncertainty into the party's primary elections for the 2026 midterms [1]. - The record increase in the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, as criticized by Musk, reflects broader concerns about government spending and its implications for future political landscapes [2].

马斯克：如果我们不断提高债务上限，那还有什么意义？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Concerns about the rebound in consumer - end inflation have delayed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and geopolitical risks that are difficult to resolve may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 773.26 yuan/gram. The trading volume of the active contract was 169,217, and the open interest was 129,822. The inventory was 18,237 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.50, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 3.32 [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 8,792.00. The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 37,784,179.63 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price was 3,271.75 dollars/ounce [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 954.82, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 441.92 [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,773.00 (in yuan/ten - gram). The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 1,295,663 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 23.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 36.17. The trading volume of the active contract was 65,468, and the open interest was 24,788. The inventory was - 930,224.12 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price was 37.16 dollars/ounce [1]. - US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,763, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,959.97 [1]. Important Information - **Policy and Politics**: - The Trump administration's tax - cut bill was approved by the US Senate. The US House of Representatives' Republican tax bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and make three corporate tax breaks permanent [1]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated all US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened to impose new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary warned of a 301 investigation [1]. - The EU and the US believe they can reach a tariff agreement by the end of July. The US Treasury Secretary hinted that the "tariff deadline" in July might be extended to September 1st [1]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: - The US May consumer - end inflation core PCE annual rate was 2.7%, higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut times are still in September/October/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

Group 1: Economic Impact - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. Senate is expected to significantly influence the global economy over the next decade [1] - The bill raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, bringing the total to $41 trillion, which could lead to increased inflation and interest rates in the long term [3][5] - The market's reaction to the debt ceiling increase has been unusual, with minimal movement in U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar, as investors anticipate potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2: Tax Policies - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts to all income groups, maintaining the highest tax rate at 37% and increasing the estate tax exemption to $15 million per person [3] - While the tax cuts may benefit wealthier individuals, the bill also reduces spending on Medicaid and food stamps, requiring beneficiaries to work 80 hours per month to receive benefits [3] Group 3: Defense and Energy Sectors - The bill allocates $157 billion for military spending, with significant funds directed towards missile defense systems and shipbuilding, likely benefiting established defense contractors like Raytheon Technologies and General Dynamics [4] - The cancellation of clean energy tax credits and the termination of electric vehicle purchase subsidies may negatively impact companies in the renewable energy sector, such as Tesla and Sunrun, while traditional energy firms like ExxonMobil could benefit from expedited oil and gas drilling approvals [5] Group 4: AI Regulation - The bill includes AI regulatory provisions that tie federal broadband funding to state compliance with AI oversight, potentially affecting the global strategies of tech giants like Microsoft and Google [5]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk strongly criticizes the Trump administration's latest tax reform bill, arguing that it will cut subsidies for electric vehicles and clean energy, leading to significant job losses and strategic damage to the U.S. economy [1][5][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Reform Impact - The Senate's latest bill draft is expected to destroy millions of jobs in the U.S. and cause substantial strategic harm to the nation [1][5] - The bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, marking a historical high and potentially leading the U.S. into a state of debt dependency [8] Electric Vehicle Subsidies - The bill plans to eliminate the $7,500 tax credit for consumers purchasing electric vehicles, a crucial subsidy for boosting EV sales [9] - The previous proposal aimed to end most EV subsidies by the end of the year, but the new version accelerates this termination to September 30, affecting both used and commercial electric vehicles [10] Political Ramifications - Polls indicate that this bill could be politically detrimental for the Republican Party, potentially viewed as political suicide [3] - Musk's criticism may reignite public tensions between him and Trump, especially given Musk's previous role in the Trump administration [11]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...

这位财政部长还重申了他5月份向国会领导人发出的指导意见，即他们必须尽快在预定的8月休会前采取 行动，提高或暂停债务上限。 周三致众议院议长迈克·约翰逊及其他国会领导人的这封信是必要的，因为财政部此前的"债务发行暂停 期"——一个授权其动用特别会计措施以维持在债务上限内的声明将于6月27日到期。 美国财政部长贝森特告知美国国会议员，他将把最新的实施特别会计措施的期限延长到2025年7月24 日，以保持债务不会突破上限。 "X日"的估算 贝森特曾表示，他相信国会可以在7月4日前完成该法案，届时政府"可以完成自特朗普总统于4月2日宣 布对数十个国家征收所谓对等关税以来一直在进行的贸易协议"。 特朗普本人则建议，议员们应该被锁在一个房间里，放弃他们的假期来完成这项法案。 独立分析师估计，财政部至少可以将其支付需求管理到8月份。摩根大通的策略师最近表示，他们对所 谓的"X日"——即财政部耗尽其及时支付所有联邦款项能力的那一天的预测是9月2日。两党政策中心则 认为，"X日"将介于8月15日至10月3日之间。 长期关注财政部账目的专家Lou Crandall在6月23日给客户的一份报告中写道，9月15日是"我们最好的猜 测 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国国会必须在8月休会前就债务上限采取行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the country will never default on its national debt, highlighting the urgency as the debt ceiling approaches a critical limit [1] Group 1 - The U.S. national debt is nearing its limit, raising concerns about potential financial implications [1] - Janet Yellen's statement reinforces the government's commitment to meet its debt obligations, aiming to reassure investors and markets [1]