Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that the bond market remains stable, while the stock and commodity markets decline. The A-share market may experience short-term high-level fluctuations, but the medium- and long-term trend is stable and positive. The bond market is stable and improving, and the commodity market is in a low position with precious metals rising alone unable to rescue the market [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market rose slightly in the first half of the week and then fell back. The bond market is relatively stable due to its low risk, while the commodity market is still oscillating at the bottom. The sudden change in the Middle East situation has cast a shadow over the international crude oil market, and the repeated fluctuations in gold prices have added more uncertainties to the commodity market [2][10]. 2. Equity Market Core View - The A-share market climbed in the first half of the week and then fell back, remaining in a short-term oscillation range. Although the international situation shows signs of stability and relaxation, there are still local hidden dangers. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the medium- and long-term trend of the A-share market is stable and positive. The technology sector is expected to have a continuous market, and the consumption sector has great potential [13][14]. Allocation Suggestion - In the short term, the market fundamentals are good, and policies are expected to drive funds into the market. The consumption and technology sectors are expected to lead the market out of the short-term oscillation. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, grasping the opportunities in the technology and consumption sectors while retaining the allocation of the dividend sector [3][15]. 3. Bond Market Tracking Core View - The bond market is stable and improving. The central bank conducted a 500 billion MLF operation, and the issuance scale of bond ETFs continued to break through. With the injection of funds, the bond market will have continuous opportunities in the short term [4][38]. Bond Market Allocation Suggestion - In general, the bond market is still a stable allocation product for investors in the short term, but the medium- and long-term logic of the bond market has not been verified, and relatively flexible short-term bonds are more popular in the market [7][38]. 4. Commodity Market Tracking Core View - The commodity market rose and then fell again, remaining in a low position. The significant decline in metal products is the main reason for the market's decline. Gold has rebounded, but it is unable to drive the commodity market up. In the short term, gold may fluctuate at a high level, and it still has allocation value in the medium and long term [8][47]. Commodity Allocation Suggestion - It is recommended to maintain the allocation of gold in the short term and continue to observe in the medium and long term [8][48].

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股债商冲高回落 市场情绪有所回稳 本周债券市场整体表现平稳，中美债券利差短期缓幅回升， 伴随着美关税政策的短期回归温和，美债利率有所上行，对 国债市场产生一定挤占。但降准于本周落地，为市场带来万 亿资金，受此影响，债券收益率持续下行，整体价格仍能够 维持高位。 债市配置建议：整体看，债市短期仍能够维持高位区间，具 备一定配置价值。而短债的灵活性，使得其更易受到市场青 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 【20250512-20250518】 核心观点 大类资产总览：股债商冲高回落，周内震荡。 本周，A 股前半周大幅拉升后高位震荡，周四回落，周内震 荡幅度加大，降准落地后，短期市场暂无刺激性政策落地， 市场情绪有所缓和，权益产品短期或将迎来高位震荡；债市 整体表现相对平稳，在市场资金流动性较大的情况下，债市 短期仍然无需过多担心，高位震荡仍是债券市场近期的主 流；大宗商品市场冲高回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry needs to undergo adjustments and transformations in the new era, focusing on three key attributes: era, industry, and state-owned enterprise attributes [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The insurance industry is in a phase of "hard constraints, soft landing," where the cost of insurance funds is relatively rigid, and adjustments have been made primarily to new business, leading to marginal improvements [2]. - The industry faces the challenge of avoiding interest rate mismatches between assets and liabilities, necessitating a soft landing that stabilizes and raises the yield levels [2]. - Traditional strategies such as direct financing and fixed-income strategies are insufficient for achieving the strategic goals in the new economy [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The industry is shifting towards a "dumbbell" strategy, balancing traditional stable investments in interest rate bonds with active investments in new sectors like renewable energy, new infrastructure, digital economy, and healthcare to capture growth opportunities [2][3]. - By 2035, new productive forces are expected to reach a scale of 100 trillion yuan, which will help fill gaps in the existing economy and drive growth [1]. Group 3: Mechanism and Pathway for Transformation - To achieve transformation, the industry must clarify navigation capabilities for selecting new economic targets, adapt assessment mechanisms for early-stage technology investments, and refine strategies and operational methods [3]. - The focus should be on investment opportunities from industrial, regional, and service capability dimensions, aiming to build a large investment ecosystem and enhance investment capacity [3].

Group 1 - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that stocks and bonds continue to rise, while commodities are experiencing a downturn [1][8] - A-shares saw significant gains in the first half of the week, supported by multiple economic policies announced by the central bank and regulatory bodies, which enhanced market liquidity [2][11] - The bond market is benefiting from the recent interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in yields and an increase in prices, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [3][34] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "honeymoon period" with a high probability of steady upward movement due to strong domestic policy support and improved international conditions [2][13] - The technology sector is likely to see a rebound due to policy support aimed at enhancing liquidity for small and medium-sized tech enterprises [11][12] - The consumer sector remains promising, with ongoing policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand expected to continue driving market momentum [12][13] Group 3 - The commodity market is facing downward pressure, primarily driven by the decline in gold prices, which had previously supported the market [6][37] - Short-term recommendations suggest reducing exposure to gold due to its recent overvaluation, while maintaining a cautious approach to other commodities [41][37] - The bond market is viewed as having strong short-term value, particularly in short-duration bonds, as they are more favored by the market [5][34]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, aimed at boosting market liquidity and investor confidence in the A-share market [1][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank announced a 50 basis point reduction in the RRR effective from May 15, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds. Additionally, the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [5][3]. - The announcement also included the optimization of two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, combining 500 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans, totaling 800 billion yuan [5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, A-shares initially surged but later experienced a pullback, attributed to short-term profit-taking and insufficient market momentum despite the positive news [4][1]. - Historical data indicates that the last time a similar RRR cut occurred, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 8% the following day, raising questions about whether a similar pattern will repeat [6][8]. Sector Impacts - The financial and brokerage sectors are expected to benefit directly from the RRR and interest rate cuts, as increased market activity enhances brokerage revenues and expands bank credit [9]. - The real estate and infrastructure sectors may see relief from financial pressures on property companies, coupled with lower mortgage rates, potentially revitalizing the real estate market and related industries [9]. - The technology and consumer sectors are likely to gain from new financing tools aimed at supporting innovation and stimulating consumer demand, with specific focus on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and home appliances [9]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a balanced investment approach to navigate market volatility, emphasizing the importance of diversification across asset classes and sectors, as well as maintaining a long-term perspective through systematic investment [12][14]. - It also highlights the need for flexible adjustments and risk control measures to manage emotional trading and optimize returns in a fluctuating market environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that a barbell strategy will remain effective from a mid-term perspective, with manageable risks at the index level in the short term, suggesting a moderate approach to capture structural opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report recommends taking profits on low-beta dividends while increasing allocation to sectors with strong policy support, favorable earnings reports, and positive marginal catalysts, specifically in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and domestic consumption [1] - Within the TMT sector, there is a focus on the cloud computing chain, which has high visibility in demand [1] - In domestic consumption, attention is drawn to service consumption in Hong Kong and high-cost-performance varieties in A-shares, such as dairy products and condiments, which show improvements in turnover and profit margins [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market in China, focusing on the impact of government policies and market strategies related to bond issuance and liquidity management [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Policy and Market Conditions** - The current economic environment is characterized by a cautious approach to policy, with the second quarter showing potential volatility that remains unverified [1][2]. - The issuance of bonds, particularly local government special bonds and short-term special treasury bonds, is expected to increase, which may create pressure in the primary market [1][2]. 2. **Monetary Policy Focus** - The monetary policy is shifting towards supporting the real economy and structural adjustments, relying more on structural tools like relending rather than traditional methods such as rate cuts [3][6][7]. - This approach aims to avoid excessive loosening that could lead to financial risks [6][7]. 3. **Market Strategy Recommendations** - For interest rate allocation, a bullet strategy is recommended, while a barbell strategy is suggested for credit allocation to mitigate risks and enhance returns [4][10]. - The emphasis on short-duration bonds is due to the reduced risk associated with them, especially in light of the anticipated increase in local government bond issuance [4][14]. 4. **Impact of Bond Issuance on Market** - The large-scale issuance of special treasury bonds and local government bonds is expected to exert significant pressure on the primary market, potentially leading to a situation where secondary markets outperform primary markets [5][13]. - Institutions may shift to the secondary market due to discomfort with the large volume of bonds held [5][13]. 5. **Liquidity and Investment Strategies** - Current liquidity in the bond market is somewhat weak, but strategies such as selling near issuance prices can yield returns [17]. - The supply of local bonds and central enterprise bonds is increasing, while city investment bonds face regulatory challenges, affecting their market dynamics [18]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy** - Market sentiment significantly influences investment strategies; a smooth downward trend favors long-term bonds, while uncertain conditions may require simpler, effective strategies [19]. - The sentiment around credit spreads has improved, indicating a better value proposition for credit strategies [19]. 7. **Performance of Fixed Income and Convertible Bonds** - Recent performance of fixed income and convertible bonds has shown stability, with public funds and insurance companies reducing their positions in convertible bonds due to high valuations [20][21]. - The convertible bond ETF has stabilized after previous redemption phases, with expectations of improved sentiment as the equity market stabilizes [23]. 8. **Comparative Analysis of Market Performance** - The bond market's performance in 2024 was poor due to declining equity markets and credit rating downgrades, while 2025 shows signs of stabilization and potential recovery [25][26]. - Recommendations for 2025 include a balanced approach of defensive and offensive strategies, focusing on low-risk and undervalued assets alongside sectors like electronics and agriculture [27]. Other Important Insights - The anticipated exit of platforms post-2027 is a critical concern for liquidity and credit risk in local government financing [16]. - The current market dynamics suggest a preference for long-duration bonds with high ratings, as they are expected to perform better in the current environment [12]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the intricate relationship between government policy, market strategies, and economic conditions affecting the bond market in China.

债券市场波动加大，对投资者的交易能力提出了更高要求。多家机构建议，采取哑铃型策略应对当前债市 波动，在控制风险的同时兼顾收益和流动性。 受前期资金面持续收紧以及股市风险偏好提升影响，今年以来，债券市场不再呈现去年的单边行情， 波动加大。 3月11日，30年期、10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货纷纷下跌，并刷新本轮调整以来新低。其中，30年期 国债期货自年内高点已累计下跌超5%，10年期国债期货自年内高点已累计下跌超2%，5年期、2年期国债 期货自高点也有不同程度下跌。 债券市场波动加大 自2025年以来，债券市场的波动性明显加大。3月11日，债券市场再次大跌，30年期、10年期、5年期、2 年期国债期货均创本轮调整以来新低。 具体来看，30年期国债期货跌1.05%，报115.380元，自年内最高点已累计下跌5.46%；10年期国债期货跌 0.42%，报107.235元，自年内最高点已累计下跌2.10%；5年期国债期货跌0.24%，报105.240元，自年内 最高点已累计下跌1.58%；2年期国债期货跌0.15%，报102.258元，自年内最高点已累计下跌0.84%。 国盛固收称，当前利率或在顶部阶段，继续调整空 ...