此次会议提出优化"两新"政策实施，表明2026年将继续推进该政策，同时将在执行细节上进行调整和完 善，以提升政策效能。 2025-12-12 01:42:35 作者：狼叫兽 为刺激消费增长，2024年已安排1500亿元超长期特别国债资金支持消费品以旧换新，即启动"国补"计 划。由于成效显著，2025年投入额度提升至3000亿元，较上年翻倍，进一步扩大政策覆盖范围。 2025年12月11日至12日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开，会议对2026年经济工作作出部署。在强调坚持 内需主导、建设强大国内市场的过程中，明确提出将优化"两新"政策的实施方式。 "两新"政策指的是大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。其中，与民众生活密切相关的消费品以旧换新政 策因涉及面广、惠民性强，受到广泛关注，并被通俗称为"国补"。 政策内容也在持续拓展。2025年新增手机、平板电脑、智能手表及手环三类数码产品，同时纳入微波 炉、净水器、洗碗机和电饭煲四类家用电器，使补贴品类更加丰富，贴近居民日常生活需求。 根据商务部发布的统计数据，2025年1月至11月期间，消费品以旧换新行动带动相关商品销售额超过2.5 万亿元，惠及人数逾3.6亿人次。具体来 ...

所谓"两新"政策，指的是大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与普通消费者密切相关的就是消费品以旧换新政策，也就是大家常说的"国补"。据第 一财经报道，此次会议明确2026年优化"两新"政策实施，意味着2026年将会继续实施国补政策。 P 10 4 F ak 9 5 011 A ● STAT Cal ar I I D S : 6 I S A P (55 . 8. 4 V V 1 Fra 12 0 P ● D p 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议提到"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效""要继续实施更加积极的财政政策""要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策"，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。优化"两 新"政策实施。清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 为了促进消费，中国先后在2024年和2025年分别发行了1500亿元和3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，2025年"国补"范围较2024年进一步扩 大，增加了手机、平板等数码3C产品和微波炉、电饭煲等家电产品。商务部数据显示，今年1-11月，消 ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中在部署明年"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"时称，要优化"两新"政策实施。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益直接相关的消费品以 旧换新政策又备受关注，被称为"国补"。此次会议明确2026年优化"两新"政策实施，意味着明年会继续 实施国补政策，但具体政策会有所优化。 商务部数据显示，今年1~11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可能在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金 投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓 口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the government's subsidy program for vehicle trade-ins on the automotive market in China, highlighting adjustments in subsidy policies and their effects on consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Subsidy Program Overview - The central government issued a total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods trade-ins, including vehicle trade-ins and scrappage [4]. - The subsidy funds were distributed quarterly, with 81 billion yuan allocated in January, 81 billion yuan in April, 69 billion yuan in July, and 69 billion yuan in October [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Over the first 11 months of the year, the trade-in program generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people, with over 11.2 million vehicles traded in [5]. - The trade-in vehicles accounted for over one-third of total vehicle sales, which were estimated to be nearly 30 million units during the same period [5]. - Adjustments in subsidy policies have led to a decrease in market momentum compared to the previous year, with many provinces experiencing varying degrees of policy tightening [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the trade-in policy into 2026 remains uncertain, with some provinces raising the thresholds for scrappage and trade-in subsidies [6]. - Despite the tightening of policies, the overall outlook for the new energy vehicle sector remains positive due to expected adjustments in purchase tax and year-end promotions from automakers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The light industry in China is expected to benefit from favorable policies since 2025, providing solid support for healthy industry development. The home furnishing sector is particularly focused on the catalytic effect of national subsidies on company performance, while the overall industry demand is under pressure during the downturn cycle, leading to historically low valuations, although there are investment opportunities in specific segments [1]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector has been impacted by the reduction of national subsidies in Q3, resulting in overall performance pressure. However, the soft home furnishing industry shows greater resilience compared to custom home furnishing. Looking ahead, the return of national subsidies in Q4 is expected to further stimulate downstream demand [2]. - Custom home furnishing companies are actively seeking self-rescue strategies amid demand pressure, while the soft home furnishing sector is accelerating AI product development, with the smart mattress market projected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2030 [2]. Packaging - The competitive landscape in the packaging industry is improving, with the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin leading to a near 80% market share among the top three players in the two-piece can packaging sector. Historical data shows that after the last round of industry consolidation (2017-2019), the industry's gross profit margin rebounded to over 10% [3]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in average prices by 2026, which will enhance the profitability of leading companies. In the flexible packaging segment, leading companies are expanding their client base and diversifying their business to include higher-margin products, thus creating a second growth curve [3]. Toys - The toy market in China is projected to reach 165.5 billion yuan by 2028, capturing 16.7% of the global toy market share. The rise of Generation Z and the growing "self-pleasure" culture are driving the expansion of artistic IPs, such as the Pop Mart The Monster series, which are gaining international influence [4]. - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenues for Pop Mart and Blokus increased by 440% and 895% year-on-year, respectively, with strong performance in Southeast Asian markets, indicating a rapid acceleration in cultural export and new opportunities in the trendy toy industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with a target price of $123, indicating a potential upside of 3% from the current price of $119.58 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo's revenue growth has stabilized, with a 9% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, primarily driven by record high transaction service revenue, which grew by 10% [8]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 314 million RMB, exceeding market expectations of 251 million RMB, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [8]. - The company is cautious about future guidance, indicating that ongoing investments may lead to profit volatility [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY23: 247,639 million RMB - FY24: 393,836 million RMB - FY25E: 430,832 million RMB - FY26E: 480,330 million RMB - FY27E: 548,415 million RMB [2][9]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for FY25E is projected at 94,679 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 109,881 million RMB [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.0%, slightly down from 31.5% in Q2 2025 [8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The adjusted target P/E ratio for FY25E is set at 12x, with a projected decline to 9.1x by FY27E [2][9]. Market Expectations - The report indicates a cautious outlook for Pinduoduo, with short-term catalysts lacking for revenue growth, suggesting that the company may align more closely with overall market growth rates [8].

Core Insights - JD.com reported Q3 2025 net revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders at 5.3 billion yuan, down from 11.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company emphasized the impact of the "National Subsidy" policy on consumer demand, particularly in the home appliance and computer categories, which has led to a high base effect for growth [2][3] - JD.com is focusing on product innovation, competitive pricing, and enhanced service experiences to strengthen its market position and user engagement [2][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.8 billion yuan, compared to 13.2 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [1] - The company aims to maintain a healthy profit margin through supply chain efficiency and collaboration with brands [3][16] - JD's retail gross margin has shown a steady increase over 14 consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in profitability [16] Market Strategy - JD.com is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Europe, through its Joybuy platform, which has begun operations in several countries [4][5] - The company plans to leverage its supply chain advantages to support Chinese brands entering international markets [4] - JD's strategy includes enhancing user experience and operational efficiency in its international business while maintaining a controlled investment approach [6] E-commerce and User Engagement - The company reported a significant increase in active users, surpassing 700 million, with a strong growth rate in daily active users [11] - The collaboration between JD's food delivery service and its core retail business is expected to enhance user engagement and cross-category shopping behavior [10][12] - The introduction of the "Seven Fresh Kitchen" model aims to address food safety concerns and improve user experience in the food delivery segment [7][8] Product Categories and Growth - JD's daily necessities category has achieved double-digit growth for four consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand and market potential [9] - The company is focusing on enhancing its supermarket and fashion categories through targeted marketing and improved supply chain capabilities [9][15] - JD's platform ecosystem is expanding, with a notable increase in the number of active third-party merchants, contributing to revenue growth from commissions and advertising [14][15]

Core Insights - The national subsidy program has generated significant consumer interest, with discussions on social media highlighting both excitement and anxiety over obtaining subsidies [2][3] - The program has distributed a total of 300 billion yuan in subsidies for the year, with the final batch of 69 billion yuan announced on September 30, marking a temporary end to the consumption stimulus plan [2][3] - The effectiveness of the subsidy program is diminishing, as evidenced by a slowdown in retail sales growth since May, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3][20] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has been the largest beneficiary of the subsidy program, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins, accounting for 38%-51% of the total subsidy funds [16][17] - Sales of A00 and A0 class electric vehicles have surged by over 85% due to the subsidies, while traditional fuel vehicle sales have declined [6][16] - BYD has emerged as a leading player, reporting a 23.3% year-on-year revenue increase to 371.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while other manufacturers face profit declines due to intense price competition [7][16] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector has seen a significant recovery, with major companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree reporting profits exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [17][18] - The subsidy program has led to a structural upgrade in the home appliance market, with smart and energy-efficient products experiencing substantial sales growth [18][20] - The overall retail sales growth in the home appliance sector is expected to slow down after the initial subsidy impact, as the market approaches saturation [20] 3C Products Industry - The introduction of subsidies for 3C products, including smartphones and tablets, has led to a shift in consumer preferences towards mid-to-high-end models priced between 3,000 and 6,000 yuan [8][18] - Xiaomi has capitalized on the subsidy program, achieving a 40% year-on-year increase in smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2025, regaining the top market share position [8][9] - Apple has also benefited from the subsidy program, reporting a 4.4% year-on-year revenue increase in the Greater China region in the second quarter of 2025, despite overall market declines [9][20] E-commerce Platforms - E-commerce platforms have faced challenges in capitalizing on the subsidy program, with JD.com emerging as the most successful due to its direct engagement with local governments and efficient supply chain [10][11] - Pinduoduo has struggled to leverage the subsidies effectively, reporting a 47% decline in net profit, as its business model limits participation in the subsidy program [11][14] - The effectiveness of subsidy distribution varies significantly across regions, with economically developed areas benefiting more than less developed regions [21][22] Regional Disparities - The implementation of the subsidy program has highlighted regional disparities, with urban and higher-income consumers benefiting more than rural and low-income groups [21][22] - Different regions have adopted various strategies to enhance participation in the subsidy program, with some areas successfully increasing consumer engagement through targeted initiatives [21][26] - The distribution of subsidy funds is influenced by local economic conditions, with wealthier regions able to utilize funds more effectively than poorer areas [22][26]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the "National Subsidy" program on consumer behavior and various industries, particularly focusing on the automotive, home appliance, and 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) sectors [4][5][6]. Group 1: National Subsidy Overview - The National Subsidy program has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan in 2023, with the last batch of 69 billion yuan announced on September 30, marking the end of a two-year consumer stimulus initiative [4][5]. - The program has seen 330 million people apply for subsidies from January to August, driving sales of related products exceeding 2 trillion yuan, accounting for about 7% of total retail sales [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The automotive sector has been the largest beneficiary, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies, translating to approximately 618-824 billion yuan, making it the "black hole" for funding [14]. - Home appliance companies have also benefited, with major players like Midea, Haier, and Gree reporting significant profit increases, while the overall market is experiencing a shift towards smarter and more energy-efficient products [15][16]. Group 3: Company Performance - BYD has emerged as a significant winner in the automotive sector, reporting a revenue of 371.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 23.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 15.5 billion yuan [8][10]. - Xiaomi has capitalized on the subsidy program, achieving a 47.4% revenue growth to 111.3 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with a net profit increase of 64.5% [10][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The subsidy program has intensified competition, leading to a price war among automotive manufacturers, with stronger companies gaining market share while weaker ones struggle to survive [8][12]. - The 3C product market has seen a shift towards higher-priced models, with sales of smartphones priced above 4,300 yuan increasing by 11% in the first half of 2025 [15][16]. Group 5: Regional Disparities - The implementation of the subsidy program has revealed significant regional disparities, with wealthier areas like Jiangsu effectively utilizing funds and achieving higher consumer engagement compared to less affluent regions [21][23]. - The program's design aims to balance support across regions, but actual execution varies widely based on local economic conditions and administrative capabilities [22][24].

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]