Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with a significant military buildup on both sides, indicating an imminent major conflict [1][8] - NATO's 32 countries have pressured China to halt energy trade with Russia, highlighting the geopolitical implications of the ongoing conflict [3][5] - Trump's ultimatum to Russia includes a 100% tariff on Russian goods if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, which is perceived as a political maneuver rather than a substantial economic threat to Russia [3][5] Group 2 - NATO's support for Trump's actions stems from a shared interest in curbing cooperation between China and Russia, as well as maintaining their own strategic relevance in the conflict [5] - China has responded firmly against unilateral sanctions and emphasized dialogue as the only solution to the crisis, reinforcing its economic ties with Russia [6] - The timing of Trump's ultimatum coincides with Russia's planned military offensive, suggesting that the political dynamics are intertwined with military strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing tensions between the US, EU, Russia, and China regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the geopolitical implications of these relationships [1][3][9] - Trump has issued a "50-day ultimatum" for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening to impose "very severe" tariffs if no agreement is reached, indicating the US's anxiety over the conflict's direction [3][6] - The EU's Ursula von der Leyen has made three demands of China, including a call for China to "cut ties" with Russia, which reflects the EU's attempt to pressure China into aligning with Western interests [4][6] Group 2 - The trade relationship between China and Russia is characterized as normal cooperation focused on energy and agricultural products, rather than military support, countering the EU's narrative [6][9] - Both the US and EU's strategies reveal their respective anxieties: the US seeks to leverage tariffs to influence Russia, while the EU attempts to politically bind China to its stance on Russia [6][9] - The article emphasizes that both Russia and China have clear positions and will not be swayed by external pressures, suggesting that their cooperation will continue based on mutual respect and shared interests [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in the global photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the migration of production from China to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, driven by cost advantages and changing market dynamics. Group 1: Cost Dynamics - The average export price of Chinese PV modules fell to $0.18 per watt in Q1 2025, a 60% drop from the peak in 2020 [1] - Land costs in Jiangsu, China, are approximately 800,000 yuan per acre, while in Quang Ninh, Vietnam, the same area costs only 120,000 yuan, with additional tax incentives [1] - Labor costs in China average 8,500 yuan per month, compared to 2,200 yuan in Vietnam, leading to a reduction in labor cost percentage from 15% to 8% [1] Group 2: Technological Competition - A $1.5 billion PV laboratory in Penang, Malaysia, is set to redefine industry standards [3] - Longi's BC technology has increased conversion efficiency to 24.5%, but patent barriers require competitors to pay $0.02 per watt in patent fees [3] - Chinese PV equipment companies hold 70% of the global market share, yet Southeast Asian factories prefer European equipment to avoid U.S. investigations, despite a 30% price premium [3] Group 3: Policy Landscape - The U.S. Department of Commerce raised tariffs on Chinese PV module imports from 14% to 25% as of April 2025, indicating a significant policy shift [6] - Mexico is emerging as a key production site for the U.S. PV market, with JinkoSolar establishing 10 GW of capacity, reducing transportation costs by 40% compared to China [6] - Chinese investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo's copper and cobalt mines aim to secure stable supplies of materials essential for PV production [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - A zero-carbon city powered entirely by PV energy is being developed in Saudi Arabia, utilizing components from Chinese factories in the UAE, with local technological advancements [8] - Chinese PV brands are shedding the "low-cost manufacturing" image in Brazil, achieving a 20% brand premium through sponsorships and educational initiatives [8] - Chinese PV companies are replicating a "full industry chain ecosystem" overseas, indicating a shift towards a new energy era where technological standards and localization are critical [8][9]

一、事件背景与核心声明 当地时间6月26日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在停火协议生效后首次发表电视讲话，高调宣布伊朗在与以色列的冲突中取 得"全面胜利"，并批评美国军事干预"徒劳无功"。他表示，伊朗武装力量突破了以色列"先进的多层防御系统"，对其军 事设施和城市造成重大打击，同时通过袭击美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地"狠狠扇了美国一记耳光"。 哈梅内伊强调，美国介入冲突的真实目的是"拯救濒临崩溃的以色列"，但最终"一无所获"，并警告伊朗将继续保留打击 地区美军目标的能力。 二、停火协议的脆弱性与后续博弈 6月24日，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列与伊朗达成全面停火协议，双方分阶段停止军事行动。然而，哈梅内伊的讲话凸显 了停火协议的脆弱性：伊朗议会25日通过法案暂停与国际原子能机构合作，以色列防长卡茨则透露以军曾计划"清除"哈 梅内伊但未成功。此外，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔声称伊朗核计划因空袭"倒退数年"，而哈梅内伊坚称核设施未受 重大影响，双方陷入"罗生门"。 三、市场矛盾心理与技术面承压 尽管哈梅内伊的强硬表态理论上可能提振黄金避险需求，但当前市场更关注停火协议的短期效力。同时技术面上，黄金 日线级别呈现"阴阳交替"的震 ...

Core Insights - The construction of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal, with an investment exceeding 320 billion yuan and a length of 1,237 kilometers, is set to reshape global resource supply chains, particularly for rare earth elements [3][5][7] - The canal connects the Yangtze River and Pearl River systems, significantly reducing shipping distances and costs, thereby enhancing China's logistical efficiency and competitiveness in manufacturing [3][5][9] Group 1: Economic Impact - The canal will create an economic loop between the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, shortening shipping routes by 600 kilometers and reducing freight costs by 40% [3] - The transportation cost for rare earths from mines in Jiangxi to processing plants in Guangdong will drop by 90%, making previously unviable resources economically accessible [5][7] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The canal positions China to control 23% of the world's rare earth reserves while simultaneously optimizing inland shipping costs, which could save multinational companies up to 20 billion dollars annually [3][5] - The project is seen as a strategic move to enhance China's influence in Southeast Asia, with countries like Malaysia and Vietnam eager to collaborate on industrial parks [3][9] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The canal represents a shift in geopolitical strategy, utilizing infrastructure development as a means to exert influence rather than military force, contrasting with Western approaches [9] - As the canal nears completion by 2035, it is expected to save 300 million yuan in logistics costs daily for the three provinces involved, further driving industrial upgrades and technological advancements [9]

Core Insights - Since June 13, 2025, the local conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted energy and gold prices, with significant implications for various asset classes [1][12] - Historical analysis of major wars indicates that the impact on assets is influenced by factors such as the scale of conflict, involvement of major economies, inflation environment, monetary policy, and post-war reconstruction [3][4] Group 1: Impact on Equity Markets - Geopolitical shocks tend to have a short-term impact on equity markets, with military and financial sectors benefiting relatively more [1][5] - Historical trends show that geopolitical risks do not directly dictate long-term stock market trends; instead, they may create buying opportunities if the original market trend is upward [2][20] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of crude oil is expected to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 25% of global maritime oil transport [1][5][13] - The potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East could lead to increased demand for oil from longer-distance suppliers like the US and Brazil [13] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are likely to reach new highs within the year due to the combination of geopolitical tensions and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][5][12] - The performance of gold is significantly influenced by its safe-haven appeal during times of conflict, with long-term trends dependent on US fiscal deficits and monetary policy [4][20] Group 4: Key Variables Affecting Asset Performance - The scale and duration of conflicts, involvement of major economies, inflationary pressures, and post-war economic recovery are critical variables that determine asset performance [3][4] - Historical conflicts show that if wars do not lead to long-term economic downturns, equity markets often rebound after initial panic sell-offs [4][20] Group 5: Dollar and Bond Market Dynamics - The US dollar typically strengthens in the early stages of geopolitical tensions due to its safe-haven status, while bond yields may initially decline [20][39] - The current dollar index is likely to remain weak, entering a downtrend cycle, with limited risk of significant declines within the year [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - The United States is reportedly pressuring Ukraine to sign a "China-exclusion clause," explicitly prohibiting Chinese companies from participating in the post-war development of Ukraine's rare earth resources [1][9]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Interests - The U.S. sees Ukraine as a strategic resource hub in the context of geopolitical competition, particularly concerning rare earth elements [9][12]. - The U.S. aims to prevent China from gaining access to Ukraine's rare earth resources, which are critical for high-end military and industrial applications [6][11]. - The U.S. has prioritized investment in Ukraine's reconstruction, ensuring that it retains exclusive rights to new investment projects [9][11]. Group 2: Rare Earth Elements Significance - Rare earth elements, often referred to as "industrial vitamins," are essential for various technologies, including smartphones, missiles, and satellites [4][6]. - Although Ukraine's rare earth reserves are not among the top three globally, they contain unique minerals like dysprosium and terbium, which are highly sought after [6][12]. - China currently dominates over 90% of the global rare earth refining and processing capacity, making it a critical player in the supply chain [4][11]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Dynamics - Ukraine's need for funding and technology post-war may lead it to reconsider its options, potentially opening doors for Chinese investment despite U.S. pressure [12][13]. - The international political landscape is fluid, and changes in U.S. administration could alter the current stance on Ukraine and China [12][13]. - Ultimately, the health of the global rare earth supply chain may depend on cooperation rather than confrontation, as market dynamics often override political mandates [13].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term strategy meeting by Nomura Orient International Securities emphasizes the theme of "seeking certainty amid geopolitical games," focusing on how to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on industry and asset certainties in the current market environment [2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [2]. - Non-dollar assets have received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [2]. - The market has priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. economy and shifts in international capital flows [2]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to be a critical juncture for market direction, with discrepancies between expectations and reality likely to converge as high-frequency data is validated monthly [3]. - The loosening and shifting of international capital narratives may lead to additional liquidity impacts, potentially increasing market volatility [3]. - Given strong domestic policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment under a weak dollar, Chinese equity assets are anticipated to outperform overseas markets in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 3: Sector and Stock Performance - The projected revenue growth rates for the CSI 300 Index are 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [3]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates suggests that the CSI 300 is still undervalued from a static valuation perspective, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3]. - Dividend stocks with stable yields and specific technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [3].

Group 1 - The core theme of the Nomura Orient International Securities 2025 Mid-term Strategy Conference is to explore certainty in the context of geopolitical risks and increasing uncertainty, focusing on how to grasp the certainty of industries and assets, as well as market trends and investment strategies [1] - The external environment in the first half of the year shows that the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [1] - Non-dollar assets received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] Group 2 - Nomura Orient International Securities believes that the market has fully priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the US economy (strong reality, weak expectations) and the Chinese economy (weak reality, strong expectations) [2] - The firm anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical juncture for market direction, with the potential for increased volatility as expectations and realities align over time [1][2] - The firm projects that the revenue growth rate for the CSI 300 will be 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [2] Group 3 - The stable dividend yield of dividend stocks and segmented technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [2] - The firm notes that the static valuation of the CSI 300 is still undervalued from an ERP perspective, being 25.6% lower than the ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic allocation funds [2] - The comparison of market performance post-trade friction easing in 2018 with the current market performance since May 10, 2025, suggests that domestic consumption and technology sectors may still have significant upside potential [2]