全球债市今年前景如何？ 此外，他还强调了两点投资策略。第一，股票价格短期有可能会继续上涨，但从多资产配置的视角来 说，投资者应该考虑把股票投资组合和债券投资组合结合在一起，或者在投资组合中增加债券持仓。长 期来说，在目前的环境下，这样的混合持仓才能够帮助投资者获得更高的回报。第二，在他看来，目前 的环境下，投资者不能只把资金投在美国或者自己的本国市场，必须捕捉全球化多元投资机会，这样才 能在未来几年形成更高的收益和回报。 "全球优质固收资产的初始收益率实际上和未来5年回报率高度相关。因此，我们通过初始收益率就可以 很好地预测未来5年的回报。比如，覆盖了过去的几十年债券走势的彭博美国综合债券指数的初始收益 率和其远期回报之间的相关性达到了94%。"他称，"该指数目前的收益率为4.4%，达到10年以来最高收 益率。在美国之外的一些市场的债券收益率更高，一些特别优质的非美政府债券收益率甚至能够达到约 5%。因此，投资者目前不能只投美国债市，而要进行全球化的分散布局，比如说也可以投资到各自的 当地的市场当中。" 上周，日本国债收益率由于高市早苗政府将进行财政扩张的预期而一度大幅飙升至历史高位。对于日本 国债前景以及投 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market in China reached a total scale of 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an 11.15% increase from the beginning of the year, with 3.34 million new wealth management products issued, raising 76.33 trillion yuan in funds [6][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of the wealth management industry in supporting the real economy, with approximately 21 trillion yuan allocated to support various sectors [6] - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 143 million, a growth of 14.37% year-on-year, generating returns of 730.3 billion yuan for investors throughout the year [6] Summary by Sections Development Environment of the Wealth Management Industry - The report highlights the complex changes in the development environment, including global geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges, while emphasizing the resilience and potential of China's economy [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" outline the strategic direction for the financial sector, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [8][9] Wealth Management Products - By the end of 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market was 46,300, with a total scale of 33.29 trillion yuan, marking a 14.89% increase in the number of products [21][24] - The report indicates a shift from single-asset driven strategies to multi-asset allocation, with a focus on risk management and dynamic adjustments to enhance portfolio resilience [26][27] - Fixed income products dominate the market, accounting for 97.09% of the total scale, while mixed and equity products remain relatively small [32][33] Investor Profile - The report notes that the wealth management industry has seen a significant increase in the number of investors, with a focus on enhancing investor protection and appropriate management of wealth management products [19][40] - The risk management framework is emphasized, with a focus on compliance and transparency to safeguard investor interests [14][16] Market Institutions and Services - The report discusses the establishment of various wealth management companies and the importance of digital financial services, including the use of AI and big data in wealth management [10][12] - It highlights the role of wealth management companies in supporting the pension finance sector and the ongoing development of a centralized data exchange platform for wealth management products [7][12]

Core Insights - The discussion around the "50 trillion high-interest deposits maturing" has gained significant attention, stemming from the high-interest deposit campaigns initiated during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and the subsequent market conditions in 2022 and 2023 that led to passive savings behavior [1][6] - The estimated amount of funds that will be released ranges from 50 trillion to 70 trillion, with expectations that only a small portion will flow into equities, while the majority will likely be optimized within bank deposits and wealth management products [1][6] Group 1: Market Trends - The high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 include approximately 45 trillion to 50 trillion in one-year and above fixed-term deposits, with two-year and three-year deposits also contributing significantly [6] - The market for "fixed income plus" products is expected to grow as investors seek lower volatility options, with a notable increase in the scale of such funds, which reached 2.7 trillion by the end of 2025, marking a 58.4% increase from the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Product Development - Tencent's "Dajiying" brand has emerged as a significant player in the multi-asset allocation space, aiming for a target return of over 4% and emphasizing user profitability, with 98% of users reportedly achieving gains [2][4] - Ant Fund is also shifting its focus from product selection to asset allocation, promoting a diversified approach termed "New Three Golds" (money market funds, bond funds, and gold) to appeal to younger investors [4][5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Several financial institutions, including China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank, have launched successful multi-asset allocation products, setting industry benchmarks [1][2] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a variety of strategies within "fixed income plus" products, catering to different risk appetites, with firms like Invesco Great Wall and Huitianfu contributing significantly to the growth in this segment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference hosted by Wind Fund and Dachen Fund emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic environment, AI themes, and asset allocation for investment planning in 2026, highlighting a pivotal year for value awakening in the Chinese stock market and a dual recovery driven by liquidity and cycles [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The Vice President and Chief Economist of Dachen Fund, Yao Yudong, analyzed the macroeconomic situation for 2026, indicating a transition from "investment in objects" to "investment in people" in China, with a need for consumption structure optimization and facing structural challenges in internal circulation [6]. - The global landscape is characterized by a "flame era" of technological revolution and great power competition, with AI driving industry differentiation and intensifying resource competition [6]. - Investment strategies should focus on "technological innovation + resource autonomy," paying attention to strategic areas such as AI, chips, and copper, while also seizing profit recovery opportunities under anti-involution policies [6]. Group 2: AI and Decision-Making - The head of investment research at Wind Fund, Chen Yidi, discussed how technology is profoundly reshaping the investment research ecosystem, with AI evolving from an efficiency tool to a critical component of decision support [8]. - AI, combined with high-quality structured data, enhances research coverage and reduces "illusion" risks, aiding institutions in building a more stable and consistent decision support system [8]. - The future of decision-making in the industry will shift from experience-driven to data and system-driven, promoting long-term sustainable development [8]. Group 3: Multi-Asset Allocation Insights - A roundtable discussion on multi-asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment highlighted the rising duration risk in bonds and the normalization of equity market volatility, stressing the need for a well-structured allocation to avoid hidden risks [10]. - Experts suggested reconstructing the "underlying anchor" of multi-asset allocation, focusing on the value of uncorrelated assets, and addressing the mismatch between investor return expectations and risk tolerance through diversified strategies [10]. - The importance of strategy selection over asset selection is increasingly emphasized, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where the ability to generate Alpha and strategic allocation becomes crucial [10]. Group 4: AI Industry Investment Opportunities - Dachen Fund's stock investment manager, Du Cong, analyzed the core value segments and opportunities within the AI industry chain, noting Google's significant advantages in AI while highlighting relative shortcomings of companies like Amazon and Meta [13]. - Fund manager Guo Weiling focused on the technology sector investment strategy for 2026, asserting that AI remains the main investment theme, with expectations for continued market performance in the first half of the year, albeit with increased investment difficulty compared to 2025 [15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The conference served as a critical moment for investment layout, gathering industry wisdom to interpret macroeconomic trends and investment research logic, while outlining feasible paths for annual asset allocation [17]. - Wind Fund aims to continue fostering an open, cooperative, and win-win philosophy, collaborating with more industry partners to build a financial ecosystem and leveraging AI to help investors seize development opportunities in the new era of the 14th Five-Year Plan [18]. Group 6: Company Overview - Wind Fund, as an independent sales institution under Wind, ranks among the top 100 sales institutions, with its non-monetary public fund scale among the top 10 independent fund sales institutions as of the second quarter of 2025 [20]. - The company is dedicated to providing off-market fund research and trading management services, creating efficient and convenient one-stop investment research and trading platforms for various financial entities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "5 trillion yuan fixed deposits maturing soon" is gaining traction, with a significant amount of funds expected to be reallocated, particularly towards multi-asset allocation strategies like Funds of Funds (FOF) [1][17]. Group 1: Maturing Deposits and Market Dynamics - The estimated scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is approximately 50 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a notable concentration of maturity pressure in the first half of 2026 [1][17]. - The flow of this massive amount of maturing funds is a focal point for the market, as depositors typically have a low risk appetite and prefer stability over exposure to stock market volatility [1][17]. Group 2: Multi-Asset Allocation and FOF - FOFs are expected to attract more funds due to their core value of multi-asset allocation, which leverages the low correlation among different asset classes to mitigate non-systematic risks [1][17]. - Historical performance indicates that the multi-asset risk parity index has a maximum drawdown of only -3.79%, significantly lower than other asset classes, showcasing its strong risk resistance [2][20]. Group 3: Performance Metrics of Multi-Asset Strategies - The multi-asset risk parity index has achieved an annualized return of 4.73% with a Calmar ratio of 1.25, indicating a higher annualized return for each unit of maximum drawdown risk compared to single-asset indices [3][19]. - In 2025, the top-performing FOF, Guotai Youxuan Lihang, achieved an annual return of 66.14%, outperforming its peers significantly [4][21]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Manager Insights - The investment strategy for FOFs is evolving towards dynamic timing and rotation, moving away from static asset allocation to better manage systemic risks [6][22]. - The fund manager, Zeng Hui, emphasizes the importance of strict drawdown control and a comprehensive skill set for FOF managers, ensuring a robust investment process [6][24][25]. Group 5: New Product Launch - A new product, Guotai Multi-Asset Steady Navigation 6-Month Holding Period FOF, is being launched, targeting investors looking for diversified risk and stable returns, with equity investments comprising 5%-40% of the fund's assets [10][26].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with domestic risk assessments steadily declining, favoring A-shares[7] - A-shares and commodities continue to show strong trends, while the mid-term uncertainty for commodities has increased, whereas A-shares and gold remain stable[42] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the social financing data showed a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, indicating a tightening in financing demand[15] - The U.S. inflation data remains relatively mild, with the December 2025 CPI growth at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, leading to a reduced expectation for interest rate cuts[16] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory measures have been implemented to manage market expectations, including increasing the margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100% to curb excessive speculation[20] - The regulatory approach aims to stabilize the market and prevent extreme fluctuations, indicating an improvement in the governance of the capital market[20] Group 4: Asset Performance - A-shares showed a weekly decline of 0.45% for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the CSI 500 index increased by 2.18%[11] - Gold prices increased by 2.23% over the week, maintaining a strong trend alongside commodities[11]

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

Core Insights - The domestic bank wealth management market is experiencing a surge in popularity, with fixed-income products remaining the mainstay, while gold-linked structured deposits have emerged as a "dark horse" category in early 2026 [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The wealth management market is expected to grow by 3.83 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by the release of funds from maturing fixed deposits and a focus on product structure optimization and differentiated competition [1][4] - From January 1 to 16, 2026, 1,212 new RMB wealth management products were launched, with fixed-income products accounting for 97.2% of the market [2] Group 2: Product Focus - The current focus is on low-risk products, with banks promoting short-duration pure fixed-income products and low-volatility "fixed-income+" products to meet investor demand for safety and stable returns [2] - Gold-linked structured deposits are gaining traction, with domestic banks targeting short-term, low-threshold products offering expected annualized returns of over 2%, while foreign banks focus on high-net-worth clients with products yielding up to 5% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bank wealth management market is projected to grow steadily, with an expected annual growth rate of 5% to 10% in 2026, despite potential short-term fluctuations due to various market factors [4] - Future innovations in bank wealth management are expected to focus on multi-asset allocation, scenario-based services, and technology empowerment, enhancing the range of investment tools and improving customer service [4][5]

Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The core viewpoint of the conference is the emphasis on multi-asset allocation for 2026, with a focus on the macroeconomic trends and investment opportunities in the technology sector [1][2] - The Chief Investment Officer of Bosera Fund highlighted that the technology investment framework involves two key valuation phases: initial valuation elasticity during the early growth stage and quality of growth during the profit realization phase [1] - Artificial intelligence is identified as a significant investment direction for 2026, with opportunities in overseas computing power, domestic computing power, AI large models, commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, quantum computing, and controlled nuclear fusion [1] Group 2: Fixed Income and Equity Market Analysis - The Senior Investment Director of Bosera Fund expects a marginal improvement in bond market returns in 2026, with fiscal policy maintaining a reasonable expansion and monetary policy keeping interest rates low [2] - The equity market is projected to show signs of stabilization in 2025, with A-share profits expected to maintain a growth rate above 0%, and a recovery in profitability indicated by a 11.3% growth rate in the latest quarterly reports [2][3] - The report suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations in A-share earnings in Q4 2025, leading indicators point towards a clearer direction for profit recovery in 2026, supported by a weak recovery in PPI [3] Group 3: Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that cyclical sectors are likely to become important rotation themes, with communication, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors expected to maintain balanced valuations amid high prosperity [3][4] - The investment landscape for 2026 suggests a more balanced style between large and small-cap stocks, influenced by the recovery of PPI and liquidity trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities predicts that the total wealth management scale in the market will grow by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by multiple factors including deposit "disintermediation," valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with rights [1] Wealth Management Scale - Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support factor, but the growth pace may experience fluctuations; a neutral estimate suggests an increase of around 3 trillion yuan [2] - The maturity of deposits over 2 years for listed banks in 2026 is estimated to be about 41 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 9 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Product Layout - The focus is on building a stable low-volatility base while actively expanding products with rights; it is estimated that wealth management could bring in 150-300 billion yuan to the stock market in 2026 [3] - The growth of "fixed income+" wealth management products is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 16% increase in the existing scale by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [3] Asset Allocation - There is a rigid allocation to deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to seek returns; potential marginal changes may lead to a shift in wealth management preferences from deposits to bond-type assets [4] - The report outlines that deposits and specific private bonds will maintain a certain allocation strength, while the demand for short-term bond allocations is expected to remain strong [4] Wealth Management Operations - Performance benchmarks are expected to face downward pressure, with potential liquidity concerns; the "true net value" operation model may lead to weaker customer experience in wealth management returns in 2026 [5] - Factors such as increased liquidity reserves and enhanced investor tolerance are expected to mitigate redemption pressures [5] Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to continue rising, with channel factors being a significant variable affecting the competitive landscape [6] - Future changes in the competitive landscape may include further penetration of distribution channels into county-level regions, enhancing customer reach [6]