Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing and preparing for "black swan" events, which are rare and unpredictable occurrences that can have significant impacts on markets. It advocates for a "antifragile" investment approach that benefits from uncertainty rather than attempting to predict these events [3][4][10]. Group 1: Understanding Black Swan Events - Black swan events are defined as extremely rare occurrences that lie outside the realm of regular expectations and can have devastating effects once they occur. Examples include the subprime mortgage crisis and geopolitical conflicts [6]. - The article identifies three main factors that contribute to the emergence of black swan events: cognitive biases, system fragility, and tail risks. Cognitive biases lead investors to rely too heavily on historical data, while system fragility arises when systems depend on specific assumptions that, if disrupted, can lead to collapse [6][7][8]. Group 2: Antifragile Investment Strategies - The article discusses several strategies to enhance portfolio resilience against black swan events: - **Barbell Strategy**: This involves allocating most assets to low-risk investments (like government bonds) and a small portion to high-risk assets, minimizing potential losses during black swan events [11]. - **Multi-Asset Allocation**: Diversifying investments across various asset classes that are low or negatively correlated can help mitigate the impact of specific shocks. For instance, during economic downturns, high-quality bonds may rise in value while stocks fall [12]. - **Multi-Strategy Allocation**: This strategy involves investing in various independent strategies that have different risk-return profiles, providing a hedge against market volatility [13]. - **Utilizing Options**: Options can serve as effective tools for hedging against black swan events due to their non-linear payoff structures. For example, buying deep out-of-the-money put options can provide significant protection at a low cost [14][15]. Group 3: Conclusion and Implementation - The article concludes that the best approach to dealing with uncertainty is to build an investment system with antifragile characteristics in calm periods, rather than reacting in panic during crises. Continuous learning and adaptation are essential for successfully navigating the complexities of the market [16].

本报讯(记者昌校宇)在低利率环境下，越来越多的投资者意识到多资产配置的重要性，开始通过FOF来 布局多元资产，寻求多元收益来源。在此背景下，摩根资产管理旗下的摩根盈元稳健三个月持有期混合 型FOF将于8月4日起正式发行，托管行为招商银行（600036），投资者可通过招商银行、招商证券等渠 道参与认购。 据了解，摩根盈元稳健三个月持有期混合型FOF采用多元配置"固收+"策略，以稳为先，精选优质债券 基金打底，同时也会积极捕捉海内外市场多元资产的投资机会，力争获得长期稳健回报。该基金投资于 权益类资产合计占基金资产的比例不超过30%；另外还可灵活配置公募REITs、黄金等商品基金、QDII 基金和香港互认基金等品种，在追求多元收益的同时，有助于分散组合整体风险。作为一只偏债混合型 FOF，摩根盈元稳健三个月持有期混合型FOF追求低波动、低回撤和收益广，有望助力投资者解决单一 资产的投资难题。 除了清晰的产品定位，摩根资产管理旗下具备全球视野的本地多资产投资团队也将助力摩根盈元稳健三 个月持有期混合型FOF的运作。据悉，该公司中国多资产团队成员兼具海内外投研经验，基金经理平均 从业经验更是超过19年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and trends in Fund of Funds (FOF) investment, emphasizing the importance of multi-asset and multi-strategy configurations in portfolio construction, as well as the significance of fund selection and investment objectives in achieving stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Portfolio Construction - The importance of asset allocation is well-known, with classic investment theory suggesting that 90% of fund performance comes from asset allocation. However, many domestic investors initially understood asset allocation as merely the proportion of equities, bonds, and cash, which requires high foresight and predictability [4]. - The diversification of investment tools has allowed for a more mature multi-asset allocation environment in China since 2022, with an increasing number of tools available for FOF investment, including QDII funds and commodity funds [4][5]. - A key aspect of multi-asset allocation is to maintain low correlation between different asset classes, ideally negative correlation, to enhance net value stability. However, investors should be cautious of sudden high correlations during extreme market conditions [7]. - A new direction in asset allocation is multi-strategy configuration, which has been effectively applied in quantitative private equity. This approach combines various effective strategies to achieve more stable excess returns [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Selection - The two main pillars of FOF investment are asset allocation and fund selection. Despite the increasing importance of asset allocation, the significance of fund selection remains high. The ability to select funds is fundamentally about acquiring the alpha capability of fund managers [11]. - The alpha capability of excellent fund managers has shown a trend of recovery since 2025, with active management of public equity funds significantly outperforming mainstream market indices [11][12]. - When assessing a fund manager's alpha capability, it is crucial to separate industry beta and thematic beta, as these represent structural risks rather than true alpha [12]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - Common investment objectives for public funds include pursuing absolute returns, outperforming benchmarks, and leading in peer rankings. Each of these objectives holds different importance for investors, managers, and peer institutions [15]. - Absolute return is considered the ultimate goal for any investment product, especially after recent market fluctuations. Regulatory bodies have begun to suggest that average absolute returns should be a key performance indicator for fund managers [16]. - Outperforming benchmarks is essential for establishing trust with investors and is a core competency for fund companies. Recent market changes have highlighted the need for funds to consistently exceed benchmarks to ensure healthy industry development [17][18]. - Leading in rankings should not be an explicit goal, as it can lead to herd behavior among fund managers. Instead, focusing on absolute returns and benchmark outperformance will naturally result in favorable rankings over time [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry and market are increasingly focusing on multi - asset ETFs as an innovative product offering one - stop asset allocation solutions. The report explores the development of US multi - asset ETFs to provide insights for domestic market innovation [2][11]. - US multi - asset ETFs have shown significant growth in recent years, with distinct characteristics such as strong head - effects in scale, rapid development of actively managed products, and extensive application of FOF - type products [2][20][31]. - The development of US multi - asset ETFs offers important lessons for the domestic market, including deepening multi - asset index development, diversifying allocation strategies, and broadening underlying asset investment tools [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Two Action Plans Mentioned, Multi - asset ETFs Are Approaching - The "Public Offering Plan" emphasizes increasing the creation of asset - allocation products to meet the needs of investors with different risk preferences and promote the coordinated development of equity and fixed - income investments [8]. - The "Index Plan" proposes researching and launching innovative index products such as multi - asset ETFs and expanding the underlying asset categories of ETFs. Recent releases of multi - asset indices indicate growing market attention [10][11]. 3.2 Analysis of the Development History and Current Situation of US Multi - asset ETFs - In 2005, BlackRock issued the world's first multi - asset ETF in Canada. In 2006, Invesco launched the first US multi - asset ETF. After the 2008 financial crisis, multi - asset ETFs evolved rapidly [13][14]. - As of March 31, 2025, there are 181 multi - asset ETFs in the US market, with a total scale of $36 billion, ranking first globally. However, their scale accounts for only 0.35% of all US ETFs, indicating significant growth potential [18]. - The top three fund managers in terms of management scale are BlackRock, Pacer Advisors, and First Trust Portfolios, with a combined scale ratio of 45.35%. The top ten multi - asset ETFs in terms of fund scale account for 51.26% of the total scale [22][25]. - Actively managed multi - asset ETFs have developed rapidly. As of March 31, 2025, 146 out of 181 multi - asset ETFs are actively managed, accounting for 80.66%. Their issuance has increased explosively since 2021 [31]. - FOF - type products are widely used in US multi - asset ETFs. As of March 31, 2025, 73 out of 181 multi - asset ETFs are marked as FOF - type, accounting for nearly 40%, with a fund scale of $13.041 billion, about 36% of the total [34]. - The expense ratios of US multi - asset ETFs vary significantly. The average expense ratio of all 181 multi - asset ETFs is 0.80%, with actively managed and passively managed products having average expense ratios of 0.83% and 0.69% respectively. The expense ratio has generally remained low since 2016 [5][40]. 3.3 Exploration of the Strategy Classification of US Multi - asset ETFs - **Core Allocation Type**: This is the most common strategy type, further divided into target - risk, macro - strategy, and subjective - allocation subtypes. Target - risk type aims to meet pre - designed risk metrics, with 28 products and a scale of $8.176 billion. Macro - strategy type adjusts asset allocation based on macro - economic analysis, with 12 products and a scale of $0.937 billion. Subjective - allocation type gives investment managers high freedom, with 57 products and a scale of $10.402 billion [44][47][51]. - **Trend - Following Type**: These ETFs use momentum factors or trend - following models for asset allocation. As of March 31, 2025, there are 26 products with a scale of $7.193 billion, accounting for about 20% of the total [54][55]. - **Target - Dividend Type**: These ETFs focus on interest (dividend) income, with 22 products and a scale of $6.384 billion. The average historical dividend rate of 17 products issued before 2024 is 7.20%, much higher than other types [58][63]. - **Option - Strategy Type**: These ETFs add option - based derivatives to underlying assets to change the risk - return characteristics. As of March 31, 2025, there are 36 products with a scale of $2.907 billion, accounting for 8.08% of the total [63][64]. 3.4 Suggestions and Insights - **Investor Suggestions**: Different types of investors can choose corresponding multi - asset ETFs. For example, risk - sensitive investors can choose target - risk type; policy - sensitive investors can choose macro - strategy type; investors seeking stable cash flow can choose target - dividend type; those preferring quantitative strategies can choose trend - following type; and investors interested in alternative strategies can choose option - strategy type [68][69][70]. - **Insights for the Domestic Market**: The domestic market should prioritize using existing multi - asset indices as tracking targets, deepen the development of multi - asset indices, focus on stable strategies and diversify allocation strategies, and broaden underlying asset investment tools to promote the development of multi - asset ETFs [72][73][75].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of scientific asset allocation to achieve stable investment returns in the current market environment, highlighting that single-asset investments are insufficient for sustained returns [1][2]. Group 1: Transition in Asset Management - The Chinese asset management industry is undergoing a significant transformation from a single product focus to a solution-oriented approach, moving away from traditional reliance on historical performance of stocks and bonds [2]. - Morgan Asset Management's multi-asset allocation system is built on three core pillars: global asset coverage capability, a scientific asset allocation framework, and a refined risk management system [2]. Group 2: Global Perspective and Framework - As a global asset management platform, Morgan Asset Management has specialized research teams covering various asset classes, enabling cross-market collaboration for informed investment decisions [2]. - The "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" (LTCMA) report evaluates the risk-return characteristics of various assets over a 10 to 15-year horizon, aiding in the construction of strategic asset allocation plans [2]. Group 3: Risk Management - Morgan Asset Management has established a comprehensive risk management system, including risk parity models and stress testing, to ensure portfolio stability under various market conditions [3]. - The core principle of multi-asset investment is not to predict the market but to achieve relatively stable returns through scientific allocation [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In fixed income investments, Morgan Asset Management employs a systematic "core + satellite" strategy, selecting actively managed bond funds as core holdings while using duration tools for market opportunities [4]. - For equity investments, a "quantitative-first, qualitative-second" selection system is in place, utilizing different analytical methods for domestic and QDII products [4]. Group 5: Pension System Analysis - The article discusses the synergistic role of a three-pillar pension system: basic pension insurance provides foundational security, enterprise annuities enforce mandatory savings, and personal retirement funds focus on wealth appreciation [5]. - An ideal retirement investment strategy is likened to an autonomous vehicle, where investors set retirement age and expected living standards, and the system automatically matches optimal investment solutions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the "All Weather Strategy" in investment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities to achieve stable returns regardless of market conditions [48]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1971, President Nixon announced the prohibition of foreign central banks from exchanging dollars for gold, which shocked the global market [3]. - Contrary to expectations, the U.S. stock market surged the following day, defying predictions of a downturn from prominent investors like Ray Dalio [5][7]. Group 2: Investment Concepts - Investment is not limited to stocks; it includes cash deposits, gold, and real estate, categorized into three main asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities [13]. - The price movements of these asset classes are influenced by different core factors, leading to low or negative correlations among them [17]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Asset Prices - Stock prices are primarily influenced by three factors: market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance [18]. - Bond prices are affected by interest rates and credit risk, where higher deposit rates lead to lower bond prices, and poor credit ratings necessitate lower bond prices to attract buyers [20][22]. - Commodity prices are driven by inflation and supply-demand dynamics, where excess supply leads to price drops and limited supply causes price increases [24][25]. Group 4: All Weather Strategy - The All Weather Strategy aims to create a diversified portfolio that can generate returns in any market condition by investing in all three asset classes [30]. - The strategy incorporates "risk parity," which adjusts the asset allocation based on the risk levels of each asset class to maintain a stable overall portfolio volatility [33][39]. - Portfolio adjustments are necessary as market conditions change, requiring active management to optimize asset allocation [43]. Group 5: Limitations and Market Behavior - The All Weather Strategy is not infallible; extreme market events can disrupt the typical low or negative correlations among asset classes, leading to simultaneous declines [46]. - Despite its limitations, the strategy is designed to recover from such disruptions, as market conditions normalize over time [47]. Group 6: Conclusion - The All Weather Strategy's strength lies in its non-predictive approach and risk-adjusted asset allocation, aiming for profitability in various market scenarios [48]. - The article contrasts this strategy with speculative investment behaviors, advocating for diversified, multi-asset approaches over concentrated bets on single stocks or sectors [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 is likely to be a year when public funds regain investor trust, highlighted by significant performance improvements in various fund categories, particularly those managed by Huaxia Fund [1][3]. Performance Overview - As of June 30, 2025, the Wind偏股混合基金指数 rose by 7.86%, outperforming the沪深300 index, with the top ten active equity funds achieving over 60% gains in the first half of the year [1]. - Huaxia Fund led the industry with an incremental scale of 311.937 billion, achieving a growth rate of 14.86% among fund companies managing over 500 billion [1]. Huaxia Fund's Success Factors - Huaxia Fund's growth is attributed to several continuous strategies: 1. Ongoing upgrades to the investment research system to adapt to rapidly changing capital markets [3]. 2. Continuous asset definition and pricing to embrace the multi-asset era [3]. 3. Continuous enhancement of user experience to better match user needs with product features [3]. 4. Continuous promotion of industry transformation through product and tool innovation [3]. Investment Research System - Huaxia Fund has established multiple investment decision committees for various asset classes, each led by independent research directors and fund managers [8]. - The firm has a large research team that covers the entire industry and all asset classes, providing support to investment groups [9]. - A comprehensive talent development system is in place, nurturing talent from entry-level to fund manager positions [9][10]. Asset Definition and Pricing - Huaxia Fund has been proactive in creating new asset classes, such as the North Exchange Fund and the first domestic ETF product [12]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of asset management, focusing on discovering, defining, and managing assets [12][14]. - The fund categorizes its products into various types based on investment style, industry, and specific strategies, allowing for a more granular approach to asset management [13]. User Experience Enhancement - Huaxia Fund has invested significantly in improving user experience, exemplified by the "Red Rocket" index investment tool, which underwent extensive testing and development [16]. - This tool addresses multiple investor pain points, such as understanding indices, comparing different indices, and analyzing market volatility [16][17]. Industry Transformation - Huaxia Fund aims to expand the overall asset management industry, enabling more ordinary people to meet their investment needs through fund products [19]. - The firm has transitioned from a single asset expert to a multi-asset platform, influencing other fund companies to follow suit [20]. - Huaxia Fund has been a pioneer in index fund services, driving innovation in ETF products and integrating active product innovation into passive ETF lines [21][22].

Scale Dimension - The new issuance scale reached a new high since 2022, with a total of 19.07 billion CNY in Q2 2025, surpassing the previous high of 16.09 billion CNY in Q1 2022[1] - The number of FOF funds increased to 517, up by 6 from Q1 2025, indicating a stable growth trend in new FOF products[1] - The top new issuers included Dongfanghong Asset Management and China Merchants Bank, with significant contributions to the new issuance scale[9] Performance Dimension - High-performing FOFs exhibited multi-asset allocation characteristics, with equity-type FOFs showing a median return of 2.43% in Q2 2025[18] - Over 90% of all FOFs achieved positive returns, demonstrating strong performance stability across various categories[18] - The best-performing bond-type FOF achieved a return of 2.74%, while the top solid income FOF reached 7.63%[19] Investment Characteristics - There is a preference for Hong Kong stocks and overseas funds, with a consensus on increasing allocations in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors[1] - The majority of top managers emphasized QDII and commodity investments, with notable increases in holdings of Nasdaq 100 ETF and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF products[1] - The net subscription for bond-type FOFs remained strong, with some products exceeding 7 billion CNY in net subscriptions[12] Personal Pension Funds - The total scale of personal pension funds reached 10.83 billion CNY in Q2 2025, reflecting a growth of 630 million CNY from Q1 2025[1] - Target date funds, particularly those aimed at 2040, 2045, and 2050, gained popularity, contributing significantly to the growth of personal pension fund scales[1]

Report Title - "New Issuance Scale Reaches a New High Since 2022, with High Subscriptions for Some Long - Term Products - Analysis of 25Q2 FOF Quarterly Reports" [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new issuance scale of FOF in 25Q2 reached a new high since 2022, with the number of FOF funds increasing. Bond - type FOF remained popular, and some products under the long - term plan had net subscriptions exceeding 7 billion yuan.绩优FOF generally showed multi - asset allocation characteristics, and FOF managers preferred Hong Kong stocks and overseas funds, with a consensus on increasing holdings of pharmaceutical and technology stocks at the stock - holding end. The scale of personal pension funds continued to grow [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Scale Dimension: New Issuance Scale Reaches a New High Since 2022 - **FOF Classification Method**: FOF funds are classified into four types: "bond - type FOF", "fixed - income + FOF", "balanced FOF", and "equity - type FOF" based on the post - penetration equity position or the equity index proportion in the performance benchmark. For pension target funds, classification is based on the holding period [8][9]. - **Scale Review**: The new issuance scale of FOF has been rising steadily. In 2025, the issuance enthusiasm was strong, with the number of FOF funds reaching 517, 6 more than in 25Q1. The new issuance scale in 25Q2 was 19.071 billion yuan, a new high since 2022. The second - highest was in 22Q1, with a cumulative new issuance scale of 15.948 billion yuan. The holding - operation scale declined slightly, but the cumulative scale still increased by 14.626 billion yuan [10]. - **New Issuance Representatives**: Dongfanghong Asset Management and China Merchants Bank had prominent new issuance scales. Dongfanghong's new product, Dongfanghong Yinfeng Steady Allocation 6 - month Holding, had a new issuance scale of over 6 billion yuan, and China Merchants Bank's new custody scale exceeded 10 billion yuan [13]. - **Product New Issuance and Holding - Operation**: Bond - type FOF remained popular, and some products under the long - term plan had net subscriptions exceeding 7 billion yuan. Investors still preferred low - risk bond - type FOF and fixed - income + FOF. The product with the largest increase in holding - operation scale in 25Q2 was Boshi Zhenxuan Chuhui Three - month Holding [15][16]. - **Fund Company Dimension**: Except for the top 3 fund companies in terms of scale, other leading fund managers had significant changes. Among the top 15 managers in terms of total FOF scale, 5 had an increase in scale, and 10 had a decline. There were two institutional replacements in the top 15 management list [19]. 3.2 Performance Dimension: High - Performing FOF Still Shows Multi - Asset Allocation Characteristics - **Market Environment**: In the second quarter, both the bond and equity markets fluctuated greatly. The ChinaBond Composite Wealth Total Index rose 1.67%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 3.86%, with equities being relatively dominant [21]. - **Overall Performance**: As the position increased, the performance of FOF gradually improved. The median return of equity - type FOF reached 2.43%, similar to that in 25Q1. Over 20% of equity - type FOF and fixed - income + FOF outperformed the corresponding market indices. The probability of positive returns for all types of FOF exceeded 90% [23]. - **High - Performing FOF Characteristics**: High - performing fixed - income + FOF showed characteristics of extending duration or increasing convertible bond holdings; high - performing balanced FOF generally showed multi - asset allocation characteristics, with QDII funds and commodity ETFs being the top - holding funds; high - performing equity - type FOF had differences [29]. 3.3 Investment Characteristics: Preference for Hong Kong Stocks and Overseas Funds, and a Consensus on Increasing Holdings of Pharmaceutical and Technology Stocks at the Stock - Holding End - **Manager Allocation Characteristics**: Leading managers generally emphasized multi - asset allocation, with different investment directions. Some focused on QDII stock - type assets, some on mutual - recognition funds, some on commodity investments, and some products under certain managers would choose to overweight REITs, but the overweight proportion was generally low [37]. - **Overall Market Characteristics**: In the second quarter, FOF generally increased holdings of pure - bond funds, and there was a preference for passive investment. The proportion of holdings in Shanghai and Shenzhen funds and passive stock indices decreased, while the proportion of pure - bond funds, QDII stock funds, and REITs funds increased [39]. - **Asset Preference**: The allocation of top - holding funds in the second quarter showed a preference for US and Hong Kong stock assets. There was a differentiation in the increase of equity assets. The increase in active equity products was diverse [40][42]. - **Stock - Holding End Allocation**: Three types of FOF with equity exposure generally reduced holdings in cyclical sectors and increased allocations to pharmaceutical and technology sectors. The consensus on increasing holdings of pharmaceutical and technology stocks was reached [49]. 3.4 Personal Pension Fund: The Total Y - Share Amounts to 1.0834 Billion Yuan - **Scale Growth**: In the second quarter, the scale of personal pension funds was 1.0834 billion yuan, an increase of 630 million yuan compared to 25Q1, maintaining a high growth rate. Pension target date funds were more popular, with a current scale of 649.4 million yuan [3]. - **Popular Products**: The scale of fixed - income + FOF increased significantly, and products in the 2040, 2045, and 2050 series were also favored. Y - share products with a large increase in scale were generally target - date FOF [3].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Jian has been promoted to Vice General Manager of Tongtai Fund, reflecting the trend of talent incentives in the public fund industry, particularly the "performance-based promotion" approach [1][15]. Group 1: Promotion Details - Liu Jian officially assumed the role of Vice General Manager on July 18, 2025, after being appointed as Assistant General Manager at the end of 2024 [1][4]. - His career path includes significant roles at Hang Seng Bank (China) and various fund management companies, showcasing a strong background in product development and asset allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Overview - As of July 18, 2025, Liu Jian manages two funds with a total scale of 273 million yuan, both of which have underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index [5][11]. - The "Tongtai Preferred Allocation" fund has a total return of -11.14% since its inception in October 2021, ranking 11th out of 47 in its category, while the "Tongtai Active Allocation" fund has a total return of -2.31% since its inception in November 2022, ranking 3rd out of 12 [5][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Liu Jian's investment strategy combines ETFs and active management, focusing on a diversified asset allocation approach [11][12]. - The top holdings in the "Tongtai Preferred Allocation" fund include various ETFs covering high-dividend Hong Kong stocks, gold, and long-term government bonds, while the "Tongtai Active Allocation" fund emphasizes equity funds in healthcare and consumer sectors [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Liu Jian anticipates a complex macroeconomic environment with potential structural investment opportunities, particularly in dividends and gold, amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic recovery [16]. - As of June 2025, Tongtai Fund achieved a 20.64% return, placing it among the top five in the industry, indicating a strong focus on research performance and talent development [16].