Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - Latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.146, UK 4.518, France 3.547, Germany 2.844, Italy 3.542, Spain 3.280, Switzerland 0.277, Greece 3.422, Japan 1.952, Brazil 6.168, China 1.844, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.727, New Zealand 4.452 [1] - Latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.488, UK 3.759, Germany 2.132, Japan 1.059, Italy 2.248, China (1Y yield) 1.380, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.019 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.468, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 16.759, South Korean won 1473.200, Thai baht 31.522, Malaysian ringgit 4.086 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the Chinese yuan: on - shore 7.043, off - shore 7.036, mid - price 7.060, 12 - month NDF 6.909 [1] - Latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6800.260, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48114.260, Nasdaq 23111.460, Mexican index 63230.870, UK index 9684.790, French CAC 8106.160, German DAX 24076.870, Spanish index 16921.900, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 49383.290, Hang Seng Index 25235.410, Shanghai Composite Index 3824.812, Taiwan index 27536.660, South Korean index 3999.130, Indian index 8686.469, Thai index 1260.680, Malaysian index 1648.310, Australian index 8880.633, emerging - economy index 1352.660 [1] - Latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade 3533.650, euro - zone investment - grade 265.441, emerging - economy investment - grade 290.080, US high - yield 2898.000, euro - zone high - yield 409.250, emerging - economy high - yield 1817.098 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3824.81, down 1.11%; CSI 300 closing price 4497.55, down 1.20%; SSE 50 closing price 2954.79, down 1.08%; ChiNext closing price 3071.76, down 2.10%; CSI 500 closing price 7001.32, down 1.58% [2] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 13.77 (down 0.12), SSE 50 11.52 (down 0.09), CSI 500 31.86 (down 0.49), S&P 500 27.16 (down 0.09), German DAX 18.65 (down 0.12) [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.46 (up 0.04), German DAX 2.52 (up 0.04) [2] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1087.65, 5 - day average - 674.95; main board latest value - 777.32, 5 - day average - 496.24; small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available); ChiNext latest value - 214.64, 5 - day average - 136.24; CSI 300 latest value - 147.68, 5 - day average - 96.94 [2] Group 3: Transaction Data and Other Market Information - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 17241.73, down 492.66; CSI 300 latest value 3905.00, down 338.83; SSE 50 latest value 1033.24, down 78.10; small - cap board latest value 3381.18, down 25.44; ChiNext latest value 4461.76, down 206.17 [3] - Main contract basis and basis ratio: IF basis 1.85, basis ratio 0.04%; IH basis - 3.39, basis ratio - 0.11%; IC basis 8.88, basis ratio 0.13% [3] - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 107.91, up 0.03%; TF2303 105.80, up 0.01%; T2306 107.92, up 0.02%; TF2306 105.80, up 0.01% [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.3448%, down 17.00 BP; R007 1.5003%, down 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5950%, up 1.00 BP [3]

| | | | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.174 | 4.495 | 3.564 | 2.852 | 3.571 | 3.299 | 0.271 | 3.447 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.952 | 6.150 | 1.854 | - | 4.726 | 4.494 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.503 | 3.746 | 2.149 | 1.062 ...

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/15 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.185 | 4.516 | 3.576 | 2.856 | 3.547 | 3.305 | 0.298 | 3.456 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.946 | 6.219 | 1.837 | 3.413 | 4.728 | 4.515 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.523 | 3.742 | 2.152 | 1.061 | 2.274 | 1.391 | 2.9 ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have outlined the economic structure direction for the coming year, focusing on stimulating service consumption, enhancing total factor productivity, and managing real estate and local debt risks[6]. - November CPI showed a significant year-on-year increase, expected to rise to around 1.2% in December, while PPI is projected to be around -2.0%[6]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days, with a lower probability of further rate cuts in Q1 2026[18]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on December 19, which could impact global equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, which has historically reacted negatively to Japanese rate hikes[18]. Asset Market Insights - The domestic asset market may see a gradual improvement, with a focus on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong after mid-January 2026[19]. - The offshore RMB has appreciated due to the Fed's rate cut, seasonal currency settlement, and easing US-China trade tensions, but the overall macroeconomic situation will determine if this leads to a stronger performance in Hong Kong and A-shares[19]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rose by 0.84% and 2.74%, respectively[38]. - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, reflecting varied performances across global markets[38].

| | | --- | | 乖 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3873.32 | 4552.18 | 2977.03 | 3163.67 | 7082.89 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.70 | -0.86 | -0.39 | -1.41 | -1.02 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.88 | 11.75 | 32.27 | 27.47 | 18.82 | | 环比变化 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 0.13 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.52 | 2.47 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | -0 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.165%, UK 4.527%, France 3.582%, Germany 2.861%, Italy 3.561%, Spain 3.332%, Switzerland 0.230%, Greece 3.464%, Japan 1.968%, Brazil 6.220%, China 1.833%, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.705%, New Zealand 4.437% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.576%, UK 3.806%, Germany 2.156%, Japan 1.059%, Italy 2.297%, China (1Y yield) 1.401%, South Korea (not available), Australia 3.971% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.432, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 17.042, Korean won 1469.400, Thai baht 31.850, Malaysian ringgit 4.113. The on - shore RMB is 7.072, the off - shore RMB is 7.072, the RMB central parity is 7.076, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.936 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6846.510, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47739.320, Nasdaq 23545.900, Mexican stock index 63528.000, UK stock index 9645.090, France CAC 8108.430, Germany DAX 24046.010, Spanish stock index 16712.200, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 50581.940, Hang Seng Index 25765.360, Shanghai Composite Index 3924.078, Taiwan stock index 28303.780, South Korean stock index 4154.850, Indian stock index 8710.695, Thai stock index 1261.390, Malaysian stock index 1612.780, Australian economy index 8914.962, emerging - economy stock index 1386.620 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.090, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.008, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.370, US high - yield credit - bond index 2898.070, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.350, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1803.856 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - share index performance, the closing prices are: A - shares 3924.08, CSI 300 4621.75, SSE 50 3019.36, ChiNext 3190.27, CSI 500 7172.37. The percentage changes are: A - shares 0.54%, CSI 300 0.81%, SSE 50 0.58%, ChiNext 2.60%, CSI 500 1.05% [4] - In terms of valuation, the PE(TTM) values are: CSI 300 14.08, SSE 50 11.89, CSI 500 32.67, S&P 500 27.21, Germany DAX 18.63. The环比 changes are: CSI 300 0.06, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 0.32, S&P 500 - 0.12, Germany DAX 0.02 [4] - Regarding risk premium, 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values are: S&P 500 - 0.49, Germany DAX 2.51. The环比 changes are: S&P 500 - 0.01, Germany DAX - 0.07 [4] - For fund flows, the latest values are: A - shares - 31.13, main board - 259.96, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext 139.88, CSI 300 33.95. The 5 - day average values are: A - shares - 360.23, main board - 326.76, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext - 38.69, CSI 300 - 4.65 [4] - The latest trading volumes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 20366.46, CSI 300 4967.16, SSE 50 1252.39, small - and - medium - sized board 3786.43, ChiNext 5818.21. The环比 changes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 3108.75, CSI 300 845.69, SSE 50 147.92, small - and - medium - sized board 516.77, ChiNext 1100.81 [5] - The主力升贴水 data shows: IF basis - 8.55, amplitude - 0.19%; IH basis - 4.36, amplitude - 0.14%; IC basis - 28.37, amplitude - 0.40% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of treasury bond futures are: T2303 108.11, TF2303 105.73, T2306 107.91, TF2306 105.75. The percentage changes are: T2303 0.05%, TF2303 0.01%, T2306 0.04%, TF2306 - 0.01% [5] - The money market shows: R001 1.3718%, R007 1.4940%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800%. The daily changes (BP) are: R001 - 13.00, R007 - 1.00, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest value of the 1-year yield of China's 2-year treasury bond is 1.406 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies are: 5.312 against the Brazilian real, 16.996 against the South African rand, 1473.500 against the South Korean won, 32.040 against the Thai baht, and 4.113 against the Malaysian ringgit [2] - The latest values of the onshore RMB, offshore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12-month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.073, and 6.935 respectively [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 at 6857.120, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47850.940, NASDAQ at 23505.140, etc [2] - The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment-grade credit bond index at 3540.480, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index at 266.108, etc [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A-shares, the closing price is 3875.79 with a -0.06% change; for the CSI 300, it's 4546.57 with a 0.34% change; for the SSE 50, it's 2974.34 with a 0.38% change; for the ChiNext, it's 3067.48 with a 1.01% change; for the CSI 500, it's 7012.81 with a 0.24% change [3] - The PE(TTM) values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.96, 11.82, 31.94, 27.28, and 18.52 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.02, 0.02, 0.06, 0.04, and 0.15 [3] - The latest capital flow values for A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the ChiNext, and the CSI 300 are -442.10, -426.62, -, -67.51, and 72.52 respectively, and the 5-day average values are -509.13, -353.73, -, -119.52, and -30.13 [3] - The latest trading volume values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium-sized board, and ChiNext are 15489.60, 3487.67, 886.22, 3137.25, and 4117.28 respectively, with环比 changes of -1210.02, -257.19, 31.27, -174.24, and -545.69 [4] - The basis and basis spread for IF, IH, and IC are -15.97 (-0.35%), -6.14 (-0.21%), and -29.61 (-0.42%) respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 treasury bond futures are 108.00, 105.62, 107.67, and 105.60 respectively, with changes of -0.22%, -0.14%, -0.34%, and -0.24% [4] - The current capital interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M are 1.3611%, 1.4852%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of -12.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [4]

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3878.00 | 4531.05 | 2963.08 | 3036.79 | 6996.36 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.51 | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.12 | -0.62 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 13.94 | 11.80 | 31.88 | 27.19 | 18.37 | | 环比变化 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.02 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.39 | 2.70 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新值 | -112 ...

| 乖 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/03 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3897.71 | 4554.33 | 2978.47 | 3071.15 | 7040.30 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.51 | -0.69 | -0.87 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.05 | 11.90 | 32.32 | 27.14 | 18.39 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.40 | 2.69 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | -0.01 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.087, UK 4.480, France 3.484, Germany 2.749, Italy 3.468, Spain 3.226, Switzerland 0.156, Greece 3.357, Japan 1.865, Brazil 6.150, China 1.828, Australia 4.554, New Zealand 4.316 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.531, UK 3.746, Germany 2.061, Japan 1.015, Italy 2.202, China (1Y yield) 1.401, Australia 3.825 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.356, South Africa zar 17.092, Korean won 1467.250, Thai baht 31.993, Malaysian ringgit 4.132. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.076, and 6.934 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6812.630, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47289.330, Nasdaq 23275.920, Mexican stock index 63551.130, UK stock index 9702.530, France CAC 8097.000, Germany DAX 23589.440, Spanish stock index 16389.000, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 49303.280, Hang Seng Index 26033.260, Shanghai Composite Index 3914.006, Taiwan stock index 27342.530, South Korean stock index 3920.370, Indian stock index 8548.788, Thai stock index 1276.570, Malaysian stock index 1624.570, Australian stock index 8866.382, emerging - economy stock index 1368.270 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.865, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 408.600 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3914.01, 4576.49, 2993.68, 3092.50, and 7101.83 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.65%, 1.10%, 0.81%, 1.31%, and 1.00% [4] Valuation - The PE(TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.05, 11.90, 32.32, 27.08, and 18.29 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.11, 0.07, 0.29, - 0.14, and - 0.19 [4] Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.39 and 2.72 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05 and 0.00 [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 206.88, - 98.60, (not available), - 41.57, and 144.99 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 226.26, - 183.11, (not available), - 26.40, and 23.23 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data Stock Market - The latest trading volume and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: total trading volume 18739.38 (with a环比 change of 2881.42), CSI 300 4638.62 (1220.30), SSE 50 1128.13 (277.81), SME board 3556.73 (458.47), ChiNext 5183.01 (615.80) [5] - The basis and basis - to - spot ratios of IF, IH, and IC are: basis - 21.09, - 7.28, - 70.23; basis - to - spot ratios - 0.46%, - 0.24%, - 0.99% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: closing prices 108.25, 105.80, 108.04, 105.84; percentage changes 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09% [5] Fund Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3713%, 1.4931%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 15.00BP, - 3.00BP, 0.00BP [5]